Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Grove, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:03PM Monday October 23, 2017 1:11 AM CDT (06:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:09AMMoonset 9:00PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 948 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Monday through Monday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west around 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 948 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis..Increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold front moving across our area will result in advisory level conditions on Monday, with winds exceeding 20 kts and choppy seas. Winds and seas will subside a bit on Monday night and Tuesday, but small craft operators should still exercise caution under brisk northwesterly winds. Advisory level conditions could return on Tuesday night as a second cold front moves across our marine zones, with winds and seas gradually decreasing from Wednesday through late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Grove, FL
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location: 30.18, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 230515
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
115 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Aviation
[through 06z Tuesday] a large area of rain with embedded
thunderstorms will move through the region today. Precip will end
with the cold frontal passage at the dhn ecp terminals by 16z and
around 19z at vld. Breezy NW winds are possible behind the front
until sunset.

Prev discussion [940 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
A robust line of storms along the frontal boundary over the
mississippi valley, raced out ahead of the front and pushed into
the gulf coast region this morning afternoon. This squall line
merged with an area of convection driven by focused isentropic
ascent over the coastal front in southern la ms, with the whole
complex now moving east through al and the fl panhandle.

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms should be expected
west of a line from tlh through aby through the night. An
increased low-level wind field will carry with it a low-end
potential for an isolated tornado or damaging winds. This threat
would be most likely at the immediate coast where the coastal
front resides and combines with unstable gulf air. The front
itself will reach southeast alabama and the florida panhandle
early Monday morning and the potential for some redevelopment
along it will be possible.

Short term [tonight through Tuesday]
As the upper level trough approaches our area, deep layer
moisture will continue to increase overnight through Monday
morning, with pwat values exceeding 2.0" across most of our area.

The cold front is expected to move into SE alabama and the fl
panhandle from 09-12z, and continue moving eastward into sw
georgia and the fl big bend during the afternoon and early
evening. The frontal forcing combined with ample moisture and
modest instability (sbcape around 500-1000 j kg) ahead of the
front will result in widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across our area during the morning and afternoon.

0-6 km bulk shear up to 30-40 kts could result in some organized
clusters of showers and thunderstorms producing gusty winds, but
with minimal instability this will not be widespread. Rainfall
totals of 1-2" are expected across our area, with isolated totals
around 3" possible. However, the front should progress eastward
quickly enough that flash flooding will not become a widespread
issue.

Overcast skies and frequent showers will not allow for much
daytime heating ahead of the cold front on Monday, and after
morning lows in the lower 70s, highs will only rise to the upper
70s - lower 80s. Much cooler and drier air will move into our area
behind the front; Tuesday morning lows will drop into the 50s
across inland areas with lower 60s near the gulf coast. Highs will
return to the 70s on Tuesday under generally clear skies.

Long term [Tuesday night through Sunday]
Behind a secondary front that will have moved through our area on
Tuesday, a reinforcing shot of cooler and very dry air will push
into our area under northwesterly flow. As this occurs, an area of
high pressure will gradually build into our area from the west on
Wednesday and Thursday. The coolest temperatures so far this
season will develop each morning, with widespread lows in the 40s
inland and 50s along the coast. On Friday and Saturday, milder and
increasingly moist air will return to our area as the
aforementioned high pressure area moves eastward. Chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually increase on
Saturday as another potent upper level trough and cold front move
into our area from northwest to southeast. Expect cooler and drier
air to return in the wake of the front on Saturday night and
Sunday.

Marine
Increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold front moving across our
area will result in advisory level conditions on Monday, with
winds exceeding 20 kts and choppy seas. Winds and seas will
subside a bit on Monday night and Tuesday, but small craft
operators should still exercise caution under brisk northwesterly
winds. Advisory level conditions could return on Tuesday night as
a second cold front moves across our marine zones, with winds and
seas gradually decreasing from Wednesday through late week.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.

A cold front will bring showers and storms to the region on Monday.

In its wake, drier conditions are expected, but not critically low
relative humidities.

Hydrology
While periods of heavy rain are expected with this next system, it
will be progressive enough to preclude any significant flooding.

Some ponding of water in poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 78 55 77 44 70 90 0 0 0 0
panama city 79 57 76 48 69 80 0 0 0 0
dothan 73 51 73 45 67 80 0 0 0 0
albany 76 52 74 45 68 90 0 0 0 0
valdosta 77 56 75 45 69 90 40 0 0 0
cross city 79 59 79 46 71 80 40 0 0 0
apalachicola 79 58 78 49 71 80 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through late tonight for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to 5 pm edt this
afternoon for apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton
beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters
from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-
coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach out 20
nm-coastal waters from apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-
waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60
nm-waters from apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Harrigan
short term... Lahr
long term... Lahr
aviation... Dvd
marine... Lahr
fire weather... Godsey
hydrology... Lahr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 3 mi42 min SSE 14 G 17 76°F 78°F1016.3 hPa
PCBF1 14 mi42 min S 20 G 26 74°F 78°F1016 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 46 mi42 min SSW 8.9 G 11 78°F 77°F1016 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 47 mi87 min S 6 78°F 76°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi16 minS 910.00 miLight Drizzle77°F73°F91%1015.9 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL15 mi19 minESE 46.00 miRain Fog/Mist74°F72°F94%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6E8E8E6E6E6E8E8
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1 day agoE6E6E7E6E7E6E6E9E12E11
G18
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E7E11E9E13SE8CalmE3E4CalmE6E7E7E6
2 days agoE3NE5NE6NE6NE6NE7NE7E9E10E9NE6NE7E7NE5E6NE3E4NE3NE3NE3NE5E5E7E6

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:13 AM CDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:51 AM CDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.61.51.41.210.80.60.40.30.30.20.30.30.40.50.60.80.911.11.31.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:22 AM CDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:07 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:15 PM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.81.81.81.61.41.210.80.60.40.30.30.30.40.40.60.70.811.11.31.51.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.