Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sawgrass, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:53PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 6:08 AM EDT (10:08 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 330 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning...
Today..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms
Thursday night...east northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Friday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south southeast after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 330 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis.. A slow moving cold front over central georgia will move through the coastal waters this afternoon and tonight. Strong high pressure will build quickly overnight, resulting in an abrupt increase in northeasterly winds during the morning hours and small craft advisory conditions through early Friday. High pressure will then move off the mid-atlantic coast and will weaken on Friday, with onshore winds and seas gradually diminishing. A strong cold front will then move across our region on Saturday night, with northwesterly winds strengthening after midnight. Onshore winds will quickly develop in the wake of this frontal passage as strong high pressure builds into the carolinas on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sawgrass CDP, FL
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location: 30.19, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 170748
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
348 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Near record heat expected again today...

Near term (today through tonight)
A cold front is approaching the altamaha river valley this morning.

Temperature dewpoint spread remaining enough to keep much in the way
of fog from forming so far this morning, but think there is still
the possibility over mainly northeast florida closer to sunrise.

Short-term model guidance continues to forecast high temperatures
approaching or setting records today with high temperatures in the
low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s at the beaches are expected this
afternoon. This should occur despite the weak cold front moving
through southeast georgia and eventually into northeast florida this
afternoon. Here are the record high temperatures for today:
jacksonville: 91 set in 1989
gainesville: 93 set in 1925
alma: 89 set in 1989
st simons island: 88 set in 1972
best chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be across
northeast florida by late afternoon and persist into the overnight
hours. There may be just enough low-level convergence coinciding
with peak heating for a few rumbles of thunder, but 500mb
temperatures are warm (-5c) and with a freezing level around 16000
feet it will most likely remain mostly showers with only light
rainfall amounts. A northeasterly surge in winds will race down the
coast late tonight making it breezy at the beaches during the
overnight hours. Overnight lows in southeast georgia will fall into
the mid 60s, with low to mid 70s expected for northeast florida.

Short term Thursday-Friday night
A weakening cold front will move south of the area and stall across
cntl fl Thursday Thursday night. Strong high pressure will build
north of the area behind the front bringing a surge of NE winds to
the coast. The converging onshore flow will bring in a surge of
moisture leading to scattered showers and isolated storms mainly
across NE and N cntl fl on Thursday with pops confined mainly to
coastal NE fl Thursday night. Noticeably cooler temps expected
especially across all of SE ga and coastal areas of extreme NE fl
where afternoon temps will be held in the 70s. Inland areas of the
extreme south and west will still be in the mid 80s. High pressure
to the north weakens and rapidly moves offshore as a cold front
begins to move SE towards the region. Return flow of moisture ahead
of the front will bring scattered showers and isolated storms mainly
across NE and N cntl fl on Friday. Temps will rebound some... But
will still be held in the 70s across SE ga.

Long term Saturday-Tuesday
A strong cold front is expected to move southeast across SE ga
Saturday afternoon and NE fl Saturday eve. Convection is expected to
develop along and ahead of this front with the potential for storms
Saturday afternoon and evening. The front is then expected to push
through the area and well to the south on Saturday night as strong
high pressure builds to the northwest then north on Sunday. This
front will bring a significant air mass change with lower
temperatures and humidities from Sunday into early next week. Long
range models indicating a change to a split flow pattern across the
country with an active sub-tropical jet traversing the gulf and
gulf coast. This jet will bring in moisture and disturbances from
the gulf of mexico although there area significant timing
differences between the GFS and ecmwf. Have introduced pops across
most areas (except far nw) for Tuesday.

Aviation Ceilings and visibility have remained mostlyVFR so far
this morning, but confidence is still medium to high that there will
be a brief period of restrictions across southeast georgia and
northeast florida around sunrise. After that, winds will increase
out of the east to 5 to 10 knots, and isolated showers and a few
storms are possible later today as a cold front moves through. After
sunset, rain chances will linger for northeast florida, and winds
will shift northeast and increase to around 10 to 15 knots at the
beach terminals.

Marine Southerly winds are starting to decrease this morning, and
a cold front currently over central georgia will push slowly
southeastward on Wednesday, crossing the georgia waters this
afternoon and northeast florida waters overnight. The front will
bring a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms which will
linger across the florida waters overnight. Behind the front, strong
high pressure building into the ohio valley will begin to wedge
southward down the southeastern seaboard tonight, resulting in a
shift and strengthening northeasterly winds. Seas will also rise, so
will be issuing a small craft advisory shortly for winds and seas
beginning late tonight and persisting through at least early Friday
morning. High pressure will then push eastward towards the mid-
atlantic coast on Friday, with another stronger cold front crossing
our waters on Saturday night.

Rip currents: moderate risk of rip currents today, with a high risk
expected on Thursday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 90 67 76 61 20 10 0 10
ssi 87 72 76 65 20 30 20 20
jax 92 72 79 67 30 40 30 30
sgj 87 73 81 72 10 50 50 40
gnv 93 72 84 68 20 30 40 10
ocf 93 71 87 70 10 30 40 20

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... Small craft advisory from 8 am Thursday to 8 am edt Friday for
coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from fernandina beach to st.

Augustine fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from st. Augustine to
flagler beach fl out 20 nm-waters from altamaha sound ga to
fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from fernandina
beach to st. Augustine fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from st.

Augustine to flagler beach fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Ce pp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTJF1 14 mi38 min 77°F 74°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 15 mi38 min SSW 5.1 G 7 77°F 82°F1019.8 hPa
BLIF1 16 mi38 min SSW 5.1 G 7 78°F 1020.4 hPa78°F
DMSF1 17 mi38 min 82°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 24 mi68 min SW 6 G 8 76°F 82°F1019.7 hPa (+0.0)
RCYF1 29 mi38 min 83°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 34 mi38 min S 4.1 G 8.9 79°F 82°F1020.1 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 36 mi38 min 82°F3 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 37 mi83 min WSW 1.9 75°F 1021 hPa74°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL13 mi75 minS 410.00 miFair76°F75°F97%1019.3 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL14 mi16 minSSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds78°F75°F90%1019.3 hPa
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL15 mi72 minSW 410.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1019.8 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL17 mi2.3 hrsS 1310.00 miA Few Clouds80°F77°F90%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from CRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3S6S10S6CalmSW53SE7SE7SE6SE8SE8SE5SE7SE6S4S5--S6S4S5S4S3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE5Calm4NE5SE3E7E9E9E6E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4NE3E6E8E6E10SE7E5E9E5NE3E4E5E5E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Palm Valley, ICWW, Florida
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Palm Valley
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Wed -- 12:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:15 AM EDT     -1.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:19 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:52 PM EDT     -1.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-0.500.40.70.80.80.60.1-0.5-1.2-1.9-1.6-0.70.10.71.11.41.51.410.4-0.4-1.3

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
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Wed -- 12:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:52 AM EDT     1.37 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:53 AM EDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:09 PM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:23 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.11.41.10.80.1-0.8-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.2-0.70.31.21.71.51.20.6-0.3-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.6-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.