Monday, June17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sawgrass, FL

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Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:30PM Monday June 17, 2019 7:25 AM EDT (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 7:57PMMoonset 5:37AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:201906171530;;200379 Fzus52 Kjax 170718 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 318 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-171530- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 318 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots this morning, becoming east southeast 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters becoming a light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters mostly smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..West southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters choppy.
Thursday..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 318 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure centered near bermuda will drift slowly southward this week, with its axis shifting south of the northeast florida waters by late Tuesday. Meanwhile, weak low pressure will develop near cape canaveral tonight and will move north- northeastward across the offshore waters on Tuesday and will then accelerate over the gulf stream waters off the carolina coast Tuesday night. Showers and Thunderstorms will increase over the waters south of st. Augustine late this morning, with additional activity developing over the waters tonight. Winds will shift to west-southwesterly by Tuesday evening, with daily rounds of showers and Thunderstorms impacting the waters each afternoon and evening through Friday. Outside of Thunderstorm activity, caution level wind speeds will prevail beginning midweek.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jun 15, 2019 at 1200 utc... 64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 72 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 83 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 93 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sawgrass CDP, FL
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Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 170838
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
438 am edt Mon jun 17 2019

Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms each day this
week...

Currently
Early morning surface analysis depicts the axis of atlantic
surface ridging extending westward along the fl ga border.

Meanwhile, weak low level troughing was pushing northward across
south florida. Aloft... Southwesterly flow now prevails over our
region as ridging aloft has shifted southward from the
southwestern atlantic over the greater antilles. Otherwise, a
shortwave trough migrating across the ARKLATEX region and
approaching the ozarks has spawned a mesoscale convective system
(mcs) over the texas hill country and the upper texas coast.

Latest goes-east derived total precipitable water imagery
indicates that pwat values have increased to 1.6 to 1.8 inches
over southeast georgia, while pwats are now in the 1.8 to 2 inch
range across most of northeast and north central florida. A few
sprinkles were already moving northward over our southeastern
counties. Showers and thunderstorms are also increasing over the
offshore waters adjacent to east central florida just north of the
low level trough that is moving northward, while a wave of
convection is moving onshore onto the treasure coast counties
south of CAPE canaveral. Mid and high altitude cloud cover is
advancing northward over the northeast florida coastal counties
and the st. Johns river basin. Temperatures as of 08z mostly
ranged from the upper 60s to the lower 70s at inland locations,
with mid and upper 70s prevailing at the coast. Dewpoints were
generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Near term (this morning through tonight)
The slow moving shortwave trough currently approaching the ozarks
will progress eastward at a slightly faster rate of speed today,
moving through the lower mississippi, tennessee and ohio valleys
by late tonight. This feature will gradually deepen southwesterly
flow aloft over our region late today, which will lift the low
level trough axis and higher pwat values over south florida
northward. Latest short-term, high resolution guidance indicates
that convection associated with the low level trough will reach
cape canaveral after sunrise and will then advect northward over
flagler county and the southern st. Johns basin by the late
morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms will continue to progress quickly north-
northwestward, crossing the interstate 10 corridor early this
afternoon and then moving into inland southeast georgia during the
mid to late afternoon hours. Convection should also develop this
afternoon along an inland-moving gulf coast sea breeze, with
mesoscale boundaries from earlier convection along i-95 and u.S.

Highway 301 interacting with this later developing convection to
focus mid to late afternoon activity over the suwannee valley and
along i-75 in north central florida, where likely pops were placed
in the forecast grids. Relatively mild mid-level temperatures and
weak lapse rates today should preclude severe thunderstorm
development, with a few wet microbursts possible over inland
locations late this afternoon as mesoscale boundaries collide,
with the strongest activity possibly producing 40-50 mph wind
gusts and locally heavy downpours. Plenty of cloud cover should
keep highs in the upper 80s for locations east of u.S. Highway 301
in northeast and north central florida, while convection
developing late in the afternoon will allow highs to climb to the
lower 90s across most of inland southeast georgia.

The low level trough axis will begin to shift north-northeastward
over the atlantic waters this evening, with a weak low pressure
center possibly developing overnight just offshore of cape
canaveral. Low level flow will become southwesterly by late
tonight over northeast and north central florida as this trough
axis weak surface low pressure center move northeastward over the
coastal waters, where scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will blossom overnight. Isolated convection may
impact coastal locations late tonight, and convection developing
over the northeast gulf of mexico may also be advected onshore
along the florida big bend and nature coasts during the predawn
hours, possibly moving into southern portions of the suwannee
valley and west of i-75 in north central florida towards sunrise.

Plenty of mid and high altitude cloud cover should prevail over
our region overnight, and lows will range from the lower 70s
inland to the mid and upper 70s at coastal locations.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Tuesday... Mid level impulse shortwave over the region will slowly
shift offshore through the day as flow pattern becomes more
southwesterly. Still expect diurnal heating to interact with deep
moisture as pwats remain close to 2 inches and expect numerous
showers and storms with storm motion from the south-southwest at
10-15 mph and will push storm activity closer to the i-95 corridor
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Deep moisture and
cloud cover will hold MAX temps close to climo values in the upper
80s near 90 degrees. Locally heavy rainfall will become a slightly
bigger issue as pwats exceed 2 inches in some spots with storm
motion still less than 10 mph. Also, slightly cooler mid level
temps with 500mb in the -7c to -9c range will help enhance strong
thunderstorm potential, with isolated downdrafts pushing close to
50-60 mph in most intense activity.

Wednesday... In the wake of trof pushing into the carolinas,
surface high pressure ridge will rebuild south of the region
across the southern fl peninsula and this will set up a faster
west-southwest flow across NE fl SE ga and with tropical moisture
with precipitable water amounts (pwats) still around 2 inches,
expect numerous showers and storms to break out along the i-75
corridor of inland NE fl by late morning and track across the rest
of the area through the afternoon hours reaching a
stationary pinned east coast sea breeze at the atlc coast by late
afternoon. Cool temps aloft of -9c at 500mb will help to enhance
storm strength and along with faster storm motion expect isolated
severe storms with downburst potential to 60 mph at times, and the
cooler air aloft will support some hail potential in the most
intense storms. MAX temps in the upper 80s where storms start up
first, while areas towards the atlc coast will push to around 90
degrees with west to southwest winds at 10-15g20 mph at times.

Dewpoints in the mid 70s will support heat indices into the
100-105 range.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
Thu fri... Faster west to southwest flow still expected to continue
across the deep south and along the north gulf coast and push a
series of mid level impulses shortwaves that will trigger daily
numerous showers and storms that will develop along the gulf
coast suwannee river valley and push towards the e-ne while the
flow will be strong enough to keep the east coast sea breeze
pinned along the atlc coast as surface west to southwest winds
will increase to 10-15g20 mph each day. This will push the max
temps into the 90-95 range each day with heat indices into the
100-105f range. While moisture levels will be slightly less with
pwats just under 2 inches and storm coverage may be less than on
mon tue, expect the faster storm movement to cover more territory
and still lead to pops in the 50-70% range. The cooler and more
unstable conds aloft will continue to support scattered strong to
isolated severe storms with the faster storm motion will allow for
better chances for wind gusts up to 60 mph in the most intense
storms during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Sat sun... High pressure at the surface and aloft will begin to
build back into the region from the SW and push belt of faster
westerly flow just north of the area. This will lead to slightly
less storm coverage with pops in the 30-50% range. MAX temps into
the lower to middle 90s will be more widespread in the afternoon
due to less clouds and less storm coverage and will push heat
indices to around 105 degrees all the way to the coast as enough
lingering westerly flow will keep east coast sea breeze close to
the beaches. Still expect cool unstable conds aloft to continue to
support scattered strong to isolated severe storms at times.

Aviation
Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible at vqq and gnv
through around 12z. Otherwise,VFR conditions will prevail, with
light southerly surface winds developing shortly after 12z.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over east central florida
and the st. Johns river basin during the mid to late morning hours
and will move northward, reaching sgj towards 16z and then the
duval county terminals towards 17z. Thunderstorms are likely to
develop near ssi towards 18z, but activity may stay just inland
from the terminal. Thunderstorms will then shift inland towards
gnv by 19z. Due to uncertainties in timing and intensity, we opted
to use prob30 groups at each terminal except for ssi, where
prevailing vcts conditions are expected beginning around 18z.

Briefly gusty southeasterly winds and MVFR to ifr visibilities are
expected with convection this afternoon. Activity may linger
through around 00z at gnv. The atlantic sea breeze will push
inland early this afternoon, with surface winds becoming
southeasterly and sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 knots
towards 16z at sgj and then after 17z at the duval county
terminals and ssi.

Marine
High pressure centered near bermuda will drift slowly southward
this week, with its axis shifting south of the northeast florida
waters by late Tuesday. Meanwhile, weak low pressure will
develop near CAPE canaveral tonight and will move north-
northeastward across the offshore waters on Tuesday and will then
accelerate over the gulf stream waters off the carolina coast
Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over the
waters south of st. Augustine this morning and will move northward,
with additional activity developing over mainly the offshore
waters tonight. A southerly wind surge this evening will bring
sustained speeds up to near 15 knots. Seas of 2-4 feet will
prevail through Tuesday. Winds will shift to west-southwesterly
by Tuesday evening, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
impacting the waters each afternoon and evening through Friday.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, caution level wind speeds will
develop offshore beginning on Tuesday evening. Caution level wind
speeds will then develop near shore during the evening wind surge
on Wednesday, with small craft advisory level speeds near 20 knots
possible offshore during the Thursday evening wind surge. Caution
level seas of 4-6 feet are expected to develop offshore beginning
on Wednesday night. Prevailing caution level winds are expected
near shore and offshore late this week.

Rip currents: winds will become onshore early this afternoon,
creating a low-end moderate risk through around the time of low
tide during the mid-afternoon hours. A low risk is expected at the
southeast georgia beaches. A low risk is then expected to prevail
at all area beaches Tuesday through at least Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 92 71 91 72 50 30 70 30
ssi 88 77 86 75 10 30 60 30
jax 89 72 91 73 50 10 70 30
sgj 87 75 88 73 40 20 70 30
gnv 90 70 89 72 60 40 70 20
ocf 88 72 88 72 60 40 70 30

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Nelson hess


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41117 20 mi26 min 79°F2 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 24 mi26 min S 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 80°F1017.8 hPa (+0.5)74°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 36 mi56 min 82°F2 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 37 mi101 min S 1 73°F 1018 hPa73°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL13 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair72°F72°F100%1017.7 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL14 mi34 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F72°F90%1017.7 hPa
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL15 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1018 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL17 mi93 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F71°F82%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from CRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3SE4SE7E83SE7SE8SE8SE8SE10E9SE10S6S6S3S4S4SW3CalmCalmS3S4Calm
1 day agoNE5E10E7E11
G15
E9E11E12E10E11E10E10SE10E9E4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN5N6NE15NE14
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NE9NE10E10
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E7E4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE4NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Palm Valley, ICWW, Florida
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Palm Valley
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 04:55 AM EDT     -2.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:29 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM EDT     -2.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.70.8-0.4-1.6-2.1-1.6-0.8-0.10.511.31.30.7-0.1-1-2.1-2.8-2.3-1.2-0.10.81.72.2

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:22 AM EDT     -2.36 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:13 AM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:47 PM EDT     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     2.64 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:39 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-2.1-2.3-2.3-1.8-0.90.41.41.81.71.20-1.3-2-2.2-2-1.5-0.50.822.62.520.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.