Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson Point, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 4:59PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:11 AM CST (17:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:30PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 916 Am Cst Sun Nov 18 2018
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..South winds near 5 knots becoming northwest late in the evening, then becoming north after midnight. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Northeast winds near 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Southwest winds near 5 knots becoming north in the late evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 916 Am Cst Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will persist over the central gulf coast region through Monday. A cold front is expected to push through the central gulf coast region Tuesday and Tuesday night while a trough of low pressure develops off the texas coast. An area of low pressure may develop along the front over the northwest gulf Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson Point, MS
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location: 30.21, -89.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 180957
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
357 am cst Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
Surface high centered over the DELMARVA area with an axis
southwestward into eastern texas. This leaves us barely on the
cool side of the high. Upper troughing extends from the great
lakes westward into nevada. Quite a bit of high level moisture
moving through the southern stream of the jet, which was reflected
in a significant amount of high cloud cover yesterday. At present,
the high clouds seem to be limited to areas south of lake
pontchartrain. A few locations reporting a little bit of fog haze,
but the only location reporting significant visibility
restrictions is pascagoula, which is usually a favored location
for fog. At 3 am, temperatures north of lake pontchartrain
remained rather cool, mid 30s to lower 40s. South of the lake,
temperatures were generally in the 40s, with the exception of
far lower plaquemines and jefferson parishes, where boothville
reported 57 degrees, and grand isle was 61.

Short term
As upper trough continues to push southward, high level moisture
will continue to increase today with another surge of high cloud
cover expected to arrive this afternoon or evening. Weak cold
front associated with this trough will move through the area
Monday night into Tuesday. Rain chances will increase across the
western half of the area Monday afternoon, and over most of the
area Monday night before tapering off from north to south
Tuesday morning. Nam GFS much more bullish on this system than the
ecmwf regarding rainfall. Have given some credence to the ecmwf
solution and have undercut GFS nam pops somewhat. Trended toward
the warmer end of temperature guidance in most cases through
Tuesday. 35

Long term
Beyond Tuesday, forecast confidence drops rapidly in quick moving
southern stream flow. First wave arrives Wednesday night into
thanksgiving day. ECMWF solution quite a bit wetter than GFS with
gfs keeping most precipitation over the gulf and far lower
portions of the SE louisiana coastal parishes. Will trend somewhat
toward the ECMWF solution bringing at least light rain well
northward into the area. We're not talking an all day downpour,
but much of the area could see about a half inch of rain early
Thursday. A brief break late Thursday into early Friday before
another wave brings a good chance of rain back to the area late
Friday and Friday night. Again, the ECMWF is a wetter solution
than the gfs. Another shot of rain looks to time out to late
Sunday into Monday.

It should be noted that as we get further into the forecast, the
ecmwf is considerably stronger with the individual features than
the GFS from Friday onward. This will need to be monitored, as a
stronger solution would necessitate starting to mention
thunderstorms and associated threats. This would also play havoc
with temperature forecasts. Currently about a 7 to 10 degree
spread on both high and low temperatures Friday through Sunday
with the GFS being on the warmer side. Have trimmed several
degrees from the GFS guidance, but not as cool as the ecmwf. 35

Aviation
Colder temperatures than expected, mostly clear skies and near calm
winds have resulted in visibility restrictions in patchy fog at
kgpt, khum, kmcb, kpql, knbg and kgao, and some MVFR conditions
could also develop at kbtr, kmsy and khdc through 12-13z. Khum will
likely see the visibility fluctuate mainly from MVFR to lifr very
low ifr at or below airport minimum through at least 12z and
possibly a bit later. Fog should mostly dissipate between 13-14z and
all airports should remainVFR the remainder of the day. Thickening
higher level clouds tonight should inhibit fog formation, however
MVFR to periodic ifr could occur during the 05-13z period at khum.

22 td

Marine
A dome of surface high pressure will persist through Monday across
the central gulf coast region. This will result in mostly east to
northeast winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less
across all waters through Monday. A cold front is expected to move
southeast and push slowly through the central gulf coast region and
coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday. Northeast to east winds
are expected to rise into the 10 to 15 knots to around 15 knots
range Tuesday and Tuesday night across the coastal waters
(especially west). Seas over western and southern coastal waters
should rise into the 3 to 4 feet range.

A shortwave trough moving into the western gulf coast region
Wednesday night will likely develop a wave of low pressure along
the frontal boundary, then this inverted trough of a weak area of
low pressure may persist over the northwest gulf going through the
latter part of the week. Winds should continue to rise into the 15
to 20 knots range Wednesday night across western waters and
expanding into eastern waters Thursday into Thursday night. If a
stronger low pressure are forms as depicted by the ecmwf, then winds
above 20 knots and small craft advisory conditions would occur.

22 td

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: river flood warnings for bogalusa, pearl river and red
river landing
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 68 50 66 48 0 0 30 50
btr 70 51 67 50 0 0 40 50
asd 70 50 70 53 0 0 10 40
msy 69 53 69 55 0 0 10 40
gpt 68 50 68 53 0 0 10 30
pql 70 48 69 53 0 0 10 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 8 mi42 min Calm G 1 61°F 54°F1024.3 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 32 mi42 min N 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 59°F1024.4 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi42 min 58°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 41 mi42 min E 7 G 8.9 60°F 1025.2 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi42 min NE 5.1 G 6 57°F 56°F1023.9 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi87 min E 6 60°F 1026 hPa49°F
GBRM6 49 mi42 min 65°F
CARL1 49 mi42 min 54°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS14 mi22 minESE 610.00 miClear0°F0°F%1024.7 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS17 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair65°F46°F52%1023.8 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS24 mi16 minSSE 310.00 miFair66°F47°F52%1024.3 hPa

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4S5S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6
1 day ago4W74S8S8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN10N10NW12NW7NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------------------CalmCalmCalmCalm4

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:45 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:21 PM CST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:11 PM CST     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11111110.90.90.90.80.80.70.70.60.60.70.80.9111.11.11

Tide / Current Tables for Pass Christian Yacht Club, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.