Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sunset Valley, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:09PM Saturday April 29, 2017 6:22 AM CDT (11:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 10:51PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunset Valley, TX
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location: 30.21, -97.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 290916
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin/san antonio tx
416 am cdt Sat apr 29 2017

Short term (today through Sunday)
Low stratus has spread to the north and west overnight, now covering
the entire region except the rio grande plains which should become
overcast prior to sunrise. These clouds combined with gulf moisture
and southeast 10-15 knot winds have kept temperatures up in the mid
to upper 70s across the entire region, more reminiscent of summer
than late april. Isolated streamer showers are possible this morning
given these relatively strong winds and saturated boundary layer.

Although these low clouds should persist a bit longer this afternoon
than they did yesterday, they should begin to lift and break up a bit
from southwest to northeast this afternoon to allow temperatures to
climb back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the
region with mid 90s to lower 100s in the rio grande plains. Southerly
winds will generally be around 10-15 mph, but gusts to 25 mph will
be possible out west behind the dryline and in the coastal plains
where a 25-30 knot low-level jet may mix down to the surface.

Most hi-res and global models show that the strong capping inversion
at 775-850 mb will hold for this afternoon across the entire region
except perhaps along the dryline/surface trough ahead of the cold
front in the northern hill country. The GFS remains a notable outlier
in that it erodes the cap by 4 pm for areas along and east of i-35
north of san antonio. However, this solution may have some merit to
it if a differential heating boundary sets up ahead of the dryline
due to greater cloud cover over the coastal plains relative to areas
further west that should warm up nicely. This will have to be watched
closely, but for now have kept mostly 20 pops for the afternoon
increasing slightly further north along the i-35 corridor towards
austin and georgetown to account for this conditional threat. Given
that MUCAPE values will likely exceed 4000 j/kg (with mid-level lapse
rates in the 8 deg c/km range) and shear values should exceed 40
knots, any isolated thunderstorms that develop should be supercells
capable of producing at least large hail and damaging winds. The
tornado threat should be relatively low with any storm that develops
given relatively lcls above 2000 feet and weakly curved hodographs
supporting SRH values below 100 m^2/s^2, but one cannot be ruled out
over our northern and northeast CWA with these storms.

The greatest threat of severe storms continues to be this evening as
a trough currently digging south of the four corners region becomes
negatively tilted as it ejects northeast into the texas panhandle.

This will help push a relatively strong cold front into the region
that should overtake the dryline/surface trough in the hill country
early this evening before pushing into the i-35 corridor between 8-11
pm and exiting the coastal plains by 1-2 am. Hi-res models suggest
that storms will initially be supercellular which makes sense given
the strong shear and instability mentioned above before becoming
overtaken by the cold front. Although hi-res and global models agree
that these cells should transition into at least a broken line of
storms once the front pushes into the region, they remain split on
whether this front will undercut the cells to reduce their severity
and coverage or provide additional lift to produce a squall line
with bow echo segments capable of producing widespread straight-line
wind damage. Models are also split on how far southwest storms will
extend, with a kerrville to san antonio line appearing to be the line
between separating lower than 50 pops further west from more likely
chances further east. SPC has expanded their enhanced and slight
risks slightly further south to include our eastern two-thirds of the
cwa primarily for large hail, damaging winds, and a very conditional
tornado threat, with a marginal risk for our western third.

Rain amounts should generally average below an inch with isolated
pockets of 1-2 inches. The strong forcing and fast progression of
this system should keep the flash flood threat fairly low across the
region. Additional elevated showers and thunderstorms may continue
behind the front overnight with rain chances ending from west to east
and clearing the CWA by sunrise. Clouds will also clear from west to
east tomorrow morning to set up a sunny day with highs in the 70s.

Northwest 10-20 mph winds with gusts to 25-30 knots will be possible
on Sunday before they eventually subside by the evening. However,
these winds combined with a much drier air mass will lead to elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions in the rio grande plains
and edwards plateau which should not receive wetting rains tonight.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
Winds will become relatively calm by Sunday night once the surface
pressure gradient weakens and high pressure moves into the region,
leading to a cool Monday morning with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Temperatures should warm back up to normal on Monday and above normal
for Tuesday and Wednesday before another round of showers and
thunderstorms occurs Wednesday afternoon and evening with our next
cold front. Considering the positive tilt of the upper level trough
digging from the rockies and fairly modest shear values, these
storms do not look to have a very high severe potential. After a
brief cool down, temperatures should warm back up into the 80s for
the weekend as an upper level ridge moves over the region.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Austin camp mabry 89 57 77 52 86 / 30 60 - 0 0
austin bergstrom intl airport 88 57 76 48 86 / 30 70 - 0 0
new braunfels muni airport 89 57 78 48 86 / 20 60 - 0 0
burnet muni airport 86 51 73 47 84 / 30 50 - 0 0
del rio intl airport 92 55 81 53 92 / 10 20 - 0 0
georgetown muni airport 87 55 74 49 84 / 40 60 - 0 0
hondo muni airport 93 55 80 47 89 / 10 50 - 0 0
san marcos muni airport 89 56 77 48 86 / 30 60 - 0 0
la grange - fayette regional 87 59 76 50 85 / 30 60 10 0 0
san antonio intl airport 91 56 79 51 87 / 20 60 - 0 0
stinson muni airport 92 58 80 51 88 / 20 60 - 0 0

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Mesoscale/aviation... 04
synoptic/grids... Lh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, TX7 mi30 minSSE 12 G 217.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F72°F79%1000.6 hPa
Austin City, Austin Camp Mabry, TX8 mi32 minSSE 11 G 205.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze77°F71°F82%1000.8 hPa
Austin Executive Airport, TX18 mi48 minSSE 10 G 1410.00 miOvercast77°F73°F89%1002.7 hPa
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX22 mi28 minSSE 10 G 165.00 miFog/Mist75°F70°F86%1002.7 hPa
San Marcos, San Marcos Municipal Airport, TX22 mi28 minSSE 146.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F71°F89%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from AUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S8S9S10S10S11SE15
G21
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G24
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G24
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G25
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SE13SE12SE12S10S12S12SE12
G21
1 day agoSW3CalmS6SE6SE10
G15
SE9S12S12S13S13S10SE12S14
G18
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G25
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2 days agoW6S4S9SW12SW10
G17
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G23
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G27
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G29
W14
G26
NW13
G19
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G23
N12
G21
NW12N13N11N17N11N4N3SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.