Monday, January22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pass Christian, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:26PM Monday January 22, 2018 10:08 AM CST (16:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:19AMMoonset 11:38PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 915 Am Cst Mon Jan 22 2018
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog late in the morning. Light rain likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and early afternoon. Chance of light rain late in the afternoon. Visibility 1 mile or less early in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 915 Am Cst Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will move through the northern gulf today. Moderate offshore flow is expected after the frontal passage and will persist through Wednesday. High pressure will shift east by the end of the of week and yield a moderate easterly flow over the coastal waters Thursday and Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pass Christian city, MS
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location: 30.22, -89.11     debug

Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 221456
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
856 am cst Mon jan 22 2018

Sounding discussion
This morning's balloon launch was perfect timing for sampling the
pre-storm environment. The biggest takeaway is that instability in
place aloft is more than model soundings of the last few runs
showed. Cooling in the 750mb to 400mb layer is such that mu cape
is over 500j kg... About double what models have been showing. On
the wind shear side, supercell sufficient numbers of 30 to 40
knots exist and SRH is upwards of 400+m2 s2. The good news is that
the temp profile below 750mb is moist adiabatic. This will limit
surface based storms and limit the potential for anything severe
reaching the surface. The current line of storms moving east
across the CWA should remain sub-severe as it tracks east this
morning, although sps worthy cells are likely. The one exception
is that if some clouds are cleared out east of the line and
enough warming occurs, a few surface based storms may develop and
could intensify to marginally severe limits.


Prev discussion issued 354 am cst Mon jan 22 2018
short term...

fog developed over lake pontchartrain but elsewhere winds and
gentle lift has caused the stratus deck to remain at 500-800ft.

A cold front located in east texas this morning will continue
moving east with sh TS out ahead of the boundary. An area of
convective development should begin to develop over then northern
gulf this morning which will begin to moisture starve the
southern end of the front. This should help in the lowering of
severe chances with exception to the northern gulf. But
parameters for a severe thunderstorm, although weak, will remain
and a marginal risk also remains for the eastern portion of the
area. If any thunderstorm is capable of taking advantage of these
variables, then an isolated severe would still be possible even
outside the marginal risk area. The actual cold front, will take
from noon at baton rouge until just after dark to reach
pascagoula. Once the front moves through, dry dew pt air will move
in bringing cool dry conditions and mostly clear skies through
Thursday with a day or two of cirrus.

Long term...

extended was left as is since model agreement is not occurring.

The general pattern is for a sfc low to develop Friday into
Saturday and move toward the area. Models are beginning to hint
that the low will couple with the front as it approaches the
northern gulf coast and kick out to the northeast giving somewhat
lower land impacts but keeping marine impacts fairly high. Again,
it will only take a slight shift of this low back to the west to
cause the extended portion of this forecast to become more
problematic. For this reason, we have left the extended with
likely sh TS chances for land areas by the end of the week but
kept most of the strongest weather near the coast and offshore.


winds have remained elevated this morning aiding in the lack of fog
development. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a rapidly
approaching cold front will pass through the area from east to
west beginning by around 12z and last through late afternoon well
east. A few showers are beginning to develop out ahead of the main
line and could impact kmcb and kbtr a bit sooner. By this
evening, all rain will have moved to the east of the area.


fog over the area lakes has developed overnight and will continue to
impact these areas through the mid-morning hours. An approaching
cold front will bring a stretch of strong northerly winds over the
next couple of days. By Thursday, high pressure will slide east with
the associated ridge axis stretching to east texas. As a result,
winds will become east to southeast Thursday and Friday.

Decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 70 40 58 35 90 0 0 0
btr 71 41 60 36 80 0 0 0
asd 71 43 60 38 70 10 0 0
msy 72 46 59 42 70 0 0 0
gpt 69 45 60 39 60 10 0 0
pql 70 45 61 37 70 10 0 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 14 mi50 min S 8 G 11 56°F 51°F1014.8 hPa
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 30 mi50 min SSE 15 G 18 62°F 1015.4 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 31 mi50 min 51°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 32 mi50 min SSE 8.9 G 11 60°F 1016.5 hPa
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 33 mi50 min 53°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 33 mi50 min S 6 G 9.9 65°F 1015.3 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 38 mi83 min SE 8 58°F 1016 hPa57°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 38 mi50 min S 7 G 11 64°F 53°F1015.1 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 48 mi68 min SSE 13 57°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Gulfport Outer Range, MS
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS13 mi75 minSSE 115.00 miFog/Mist63°F61°F93%1014.6 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS18 mi72 minS 1010.00 miOvercast64°F60°F90%1015.2 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS21 mi78 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F60°F94%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from GPT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE14SE15SE14E15SE15E15E14E11E12E11E11SE10SE10SE10SE12SE12SE11SE11SE8SE9SE4SE8SE11S9
1 day agoSE14SE14SE15E15SE16E13E10SE9E11E11SE10SE6SE6SE6SE3SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE12
2 days ago4CalmS6SE65CalmSE7S5CalmSE3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmE12

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island, Mississippi
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Cat Island
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Mon -- 12:46 AM CST     0.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:06 AM CST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:24 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:38 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Ship Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi
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Ship Island
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Mon -- 12:25 AM CST     0.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:28 AM CST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:24 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:37 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.