Friday, December14, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pass Christian, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:58PM Friday December 14, 2018 10:55 PM CST (04:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:55PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 831 Pm Cst Fri Dec 14 2018
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..West winds 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers through the night.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 831 Pm Cst Fri Dec 14 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will build over the region this weekend and remain in place through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pass Christian city, MS
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location: 30.22, -89.11     debug

Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 142121
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
321 pm cst Fri dec 14 2018

Short term An occluded low pressure system will continue to
push through the lower mississippi valley and into the tennessee
valley tonight and tomorrow. A thermal trough and ample low level
moisture associated with this vertically stacked system will keep
mostly cloudy skies in place through tomorrow morning. A fairly
tight pressure gradient around the low will also keep westerly
winds of around 10 mph in place through tomorrow. Although the
system has some cooler air in place, a surge of arctic air is not
accompanying this area of low pressure. As a result, temperatures
will only be slightly below average in the upper 50s and lower 60s

Skies will begin to clear tomorrow night and Sunday as the low
pulls further to the northeast and increasing negative vorticity
advection and ridging builds in from the west. Temperatures will
also modify back to more normal levels for mid-december with highs
in the middle 60s.

Long term A largely zonal flow pattern will be in place on
Monday, and a shearing out shortwave feature will move through the
area. This system will be moisture starved, and at most some high
clouds will accompany this feature. Given the zonal flow regime,
temperatures will remain near seasonal averages on Monday.

The models remain in decent agreement on Tuesday and indicate that
an increasingly difluent pattern will develop in the upper levels.

Moisture will remain limited, so even with the increase in omega
values aloft skies will remain mostly clear throughout the day.

Temperatures will also remain near average due to the continued
largely zonal flow pattern.

Forecast confidence declines rapidly heading into Wednesday and
Thursday as the medium range guidance solutions diverge greatly.

The GFS continues to show a weaker and more positively tilted
shortwave trough develop over the southern plains and texas on
Wednesday. As this feature moves to the east, a much stronger
northern stream system will dive into the ohio and tennessee
valleys effectively absorbing the southern stream energy into the
stronger northern stream system. Cyclogenesis will occur as this
shortwave feature merges into the stronger longwave trough
developing over the eastern third of the nation, but the surface
low that forms is projected by the GFS to remain largely offshore.

This would result in a drier forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.

The ECMWF has the southern stream shortwave feature over texas
and the southern plains develop a deeper and more neutrally tilted
trough axis on Wednesday. A band of showers is projected to develop
in advance of the shortwave trough axis it moves through the
lower mississippi valley on Wednesday with this model. The ecmwf
agrees on the northern stream energy diving south Wednesday night
into Thursday, but the main push is more into the plains states as
opposed to the ohio valley. As a result, a very deep and much
colder system affects the forecast area on Thursday and Friday. If
the ECMWF is to be believed, moisture and temperatures profiles
would potentially support a winter precipitation risk Thursday
night. However, this is not included in the current forecast given
the lack of model agreement and low confidence in the forecast.

Have opted to trend more toward the GFS solution at this time, and
this puts the area in a drier and warmer weather pattern from
Wednesday through Friday. Have included a mention of chance
showers on Wednesday as the initial shortwave trough axis moves
through the region, but then have drier air quickly advect in from
the north as a low pressure system strengthens in the central gulf
of mexico. This keeps the area dry and fairly mild with
temperatures near average for Thursday and Friday.

Aviation A vertically stacked weather system just north of the
taf sites will continue the slow track east. Moisture will rotate
over most TAF sites through 18z Saturday. MVFR ceilings will
prevail Saturday with ifr ceilings between 06z and 13z Saturday.

In addition, west winds will prevail through the period. 18

Marine Small craft advisory conditions will continue over open gulf waters
and the chandeleur and breton sounds through Saturday. Surface low
over northeast louisiana and central mississippi will continue to
push east tonight and Saturday. This feature will yield moderate
west over the open waters tonight into Saturday morning.

These strong westerly winds will then persist through Saturday
before dropping off rapidly as the low pulls away and high pressure
builds in. These strong winds and a decent swell will result in very
hazardous seas of 8 to 14 feet over the open waters through Saturday
evening. Seas will quickly fall back to 5 feet or less by Sunday and
remain fairly calm through early next week. 18

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: river flood warnings along pearl river at bogalusa
small craft advisories
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 44 56 41 65 30 10 0 0
btr 45 56 42 66 20 10 0 0
asd 46 58 43 64 10 10 0 0
msy 47 58 45 63 10 10 0 0
gpt 48 58 44 63 10 10 0 0
pql 48 60 44 64 10 10 0 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Saturday for gmz536-538-550-

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Saturday for gmz538-550-552-


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 14 mi55 min WSW 6 G 8.9 53°F 55°F1013.3 hPa (+1.0)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 31 mi61 min 55°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 32 mi55 min WSW 23 G 27 56°F 1014.3 hPa (+0.7)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 38 mi70 min WSW 13 55°F 1014 hPa47°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 38 mi55 min WSW 14 G 17 53°F 58°F1013.8 hPa (+0.7)
GBRM6 40 mi115 min 52°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 48 mi85 min W 21 57°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Gulfport Outer Range, MS
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS13 mi62 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast54°F45°F72%1013.2 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS18 mi59 minWSW 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast54°F45°F71%1013.5 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS21 mi2.1 hrsSW 77.00 miOvercast52°F44°F77%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from GPT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE4SE6E5E4CalmCalmSE4SE4SW3S5W13
1 day agoCalmE3SE4NE4CalmCalmE10E13SE11E9E6SE13SE16E16E12SE16SE9E14SE18SE16
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmNE4E4CalmSE4S6E5SE8SE10E5E5CalmE3E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island, Mississippi
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Ship Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.