Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 8:30 PM   Moonset 6:34 AM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 959 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 23 2024
Overnight - South winds diminishing to around 5 knots. Waves around 2 feet late this evening, then 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet.

GMZ500 959 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure will remain across the local waters through much of the week allowing for favorable marine conditions across the region. Winds have transitioned to a more southeasterly direction as the high moves east of the region. Going into the weekend, the pressure gradient will tighten again leading to the need for cautionary headlines or small craft advisories.

FXUS64 KLIX 240450 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1150 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Under sunny skies and a zonal/progressive upper flow regime, temperatures have warmed across the region. With the surface flow veering to a more onshore flow with the surface high departing stage east, some better low level moisture has started to creep northward back into the area. This will limit critical fire weather concerns this afternoon.

Overnight, the upper level flow will transition to a dry northwesterly flow and a surface front will make an attempt to near the region. Although low level moisture influx has been weak, there is still a weak SREF signal for lower visibilities, especially across southwest Mississippi, where some shallow fog isn't out of the realm of possibility, especially if some moisture pool develops ahead of a stalling front just upstream over central MS/AL.

On Wednesday, outside of some scattered high clouds, the story will be temperatures (and that isn't even much of a story). With a continuation of increasing heights, temperatures should continue to increase gradually...both MaxT's and MinT's. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The long term period starts with the stalled front just to our north and east. Again, ahead of the front there could be some morning fog, however, as pressure gradient tightens between a high to our east and a strengthening surface low over the high plains, this will become less of a concern late in the week. The northwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of a ridge axis over Texas will eventually transition to a southwesterly flow by Friday as a strong H5 trough begins to amplify over the central plains.
This trough will suppress the upper ridge across the Gulf of Mexico...as such the heights and thicknesses will increase across our region allowing for the warming trend to continue before balancing out later in the weekend or early next week.

A cold front stalls upstream early in the weekend close to the Sabine River and ArkLaTex region. This will likely keep most rain chances up that way this weekend. A strong mid and upper level impulse amplifies and takes the same path roughly as the prior weaker impulse. This feature looks to move the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary eastward toward our area early next week.
As it does, we'll likely start seeing an uptick and scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across our western tier counties/parishes late Monday or early Tuesday. Still low confidence in timing and precip probs, but we'll fine tune going into the weekend. (Frye)

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Late evening terminals all reporting VFR conditions, and at most of the terminals, that should continue overnight. The most likely exception would be KMCB, where visibilities could briefly fall to MVFR or IFR conditions around sunrise.

One minor difference on Wednesday is that forecast soundings would indicate at least some potential for cumulus development. In most locations, probably not even enough to constitute a ceiling, with most cloud bases above FL030 after initial development. Loss of surface heating should allow dissipation near or shortly after 00z Thursday. Beyond 06z Thursday, there will once again be at least a low end threat of radiation fog development as sunrise Thursday approaches. Most favored location would be KMCB, but probabilities at most other terminals will be increased somewhat as compared to Wednesday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Fairly benign marine conditions early on in the forecast period.
Onshore flow is anticipated to develop and gradually strengthen through the week. During the afternoons, winds could be enhanced over the MS Sound and Tidal Lakes. May need short fused Cautionary headlines or even SCA if the forecast trends up even just slightly. The pressure gradient increases on Friday and through the weekend where Cautionary headlines and/or SCAs look to be a safe bet across the local waters. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 51 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 56 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 56 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 61 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 58 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 56 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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