Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eden Isle, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:26PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:33 AM CDT (10:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:35PMMoonset 12:31AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 425 Am Cdt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots early easing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 425 Am Cdt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will move to the coast and stall this morning. The front will begin to move south again starting late this afternoon and move through during the early evening hours. This front will move back to the north Friday before another stronger cold front moves through the coastal waters Satureday night into Sunday morning. A coastal surface low may get organized and move through the coastal waters for the first half of the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eden Isle CDP, LA
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location: 30.22, -89.82     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 170955
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
455 am cdt Wed oct 17 2018

Short term
A nearly stationary frontal boundary has slowly sagged southward
along the immediate gulf coast bringing slightly cooler
temperatures into the region for Wednesday and Thursday with
warmer temperatures expected on Friday. The front will washout and
dissipate along the coast with only slight chances of rain along
the immediate coastal areas post Wednesday evening. Rain chances
will decrease today down to only slight chances with a short dry
period from Thursday through early Friday morning. A cut off upper
level low pressure system over northern arizona and a
southwesterly flow aloft along the western gulf continues to
create an over running setup over eastern and central texas
through the period. A 594 upper level ridge takes hold briefly on
Thursday.

Long term
The ridge will begin to rapidly break down on Friday out ahead of
a much stronger longwave trof digging down from the northern
plains and into the ohio valley by Saturday. This along with an
approaching frontal boundary will increase rain chances to likely
from Friday night through Saturday. Severe weather unlikely with
this system. Front expected to move through the area by Saturday
thus bringing much cooler and rapidly drying conditions by
Saturday night. Much cooler and dry conditions on Sunday with some
lows north of i-12 as well as inland mississippi coastal counties
expected to be in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday night. Clouds
increasing on Monday into Monday night with our next chance of
rain expected Monday and into Tuesday out ahead of a deepening
low pressure system.

Aviation
Ceilings will remain stable from ovc005-008 for much of this morning
until around sunrise when ceilings could fall to around ovc002 for a
short duration. Vis restrictions will be related to cloud levels.

Basically, if ceilings are at 005 then vis should be at or close to
5sm and so forth. Clouds should break out by mid morning and rise to
around bkn015 or better. A few showers will continue to plague a few
terminals as well. There is a good chance that msy and new could
observe some strongly reduced CIGS vis this morning as the cold
front will be on their doorstep by sunrise. Once the front moves
through, both will rise.

Marine
A cold front will stall along the coast today before getting another
surge to move a little faster to the south by sunset. As cooler air
moves out over the gulf, it will cause the boundary layer to become
unstable due to the delta t values. This will help bring down
stronger winds from 1kft. These values are a good 25kt at 1kft. This
should translate to winds of 20-25kt at the sfc. All solutions show
this sfc winds being right at or just over advisory criteria
starting this evening. Winds will definitely gust well into the 20kt
range frequently for locations that are closer to the 15-20kt range.

For these reasons, small craft advisories will be raised for all
waters starting at 7pm today through at least noon Thursday and then
begin tapering after that.

Winds will lower Friday as the front moves back to the north and
should fall to 5-10kt Friday night into Saturday morning. Another
cold front should move through rapidly Saturday afternoon or evening
causing winds to quickly rise to 25-30kt. This should remain into
Sunday before easing to 15-20kt Sunday night into Monday. Winds may
be all over the place for the first half of the new week as a sfc
low should begin to ride the coast. Depending on where the low is
located, winds for any particular location could change in direction
and speed Monday through Wednesday. This time frame should also
begin to show a good amount of moderate to strong thunderstorm
activity especially over the gulf waters.

Decision support
Dss code: green
deployed: none
activation: none
activities: none
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 20 mi34 min NE 12 G 14 74°F 79°F1018.5 hPa
CARL1 26 mi34 min 75°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi34 min NE 15 G 17 77°F 83°F1018.5 hPa (+0.0)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 27 mi34 min NNE 8 G 8.9 72°F 82°F1019.2 hPa (+0.0)
FREL1 33 mi34 min N 8 G 9.9 72°F 1018 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi34 min NNE 2.9 G 7 74°F 81°F1018.5 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA9 mi41 minNNE 78.00 miOvercast71°F68°F90%1019.1 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA17 mi41 minNE 1110.00 miOvercast75°F72°F90%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N5N4E4E4SE6S7S7S6S6SE7SE4SE3N5N8N6NE7N7--NE5N6N7N6N7
1 day agoCalmN3CalmSE3S8SE9SE9SE8SE4SE9SE6S5SE8N7N5N5CalmSE5CalmNE44N5CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE3S7S10S9S10S8SE10S7SE7SE7SE4SE3E3E3SE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.