Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eden Isle, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday February 22, 2018 4:56 PM CST (22:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:55AMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 306 Pm Cst Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog through the day. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds near 10 knots becoming south early in the afternoon, then becoming north late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 306 Pm Cst Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis..Persistent onshore flow will continue through Sunday. Another cold front will move off the coast late Sunday but become stationary in the northern gulf Monday before moving north as a warm front Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eden Isle CDP, LA
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location: 30.22, -89.82     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 222150
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
350 pm cst Thu feb 22 2018

Short term
The persistent bermuda ridge flow continues to persist and win out
against cold air intrusion into the middle of the nation. The
front has stalled as expected and starting to nudge northward late
this afternoon. Frontal zone is quite active with very dynamic
structure for convection and still some lingering winter
precipitation north of the front. Southerly flow to be maintained
and push frontal zone farther north Friday, but maintaining warm
sector moist unstable air streaming through the forecast area.

Convergent flow off the gulf will be capable of producing streaks
of convection mainly during the afternoon and evening hours Friday
worthy of chance pops. Temperatures remain well above normal for
mid to late february.

Long term
The anomalously warm spring conditions in the dead of winter
usually come with consequences at some point. Models are showing a
spring storm type pattern with large warm sector from the gulf to
triple point structure becoming established in the mid-mississippi
valley. SPC - cips analogs on this pattern strongly favors an
outbreak in the ms delta region from arkansas through central
tennessee that occurred on feb 25, 2001. That particular outbreak
had 24 tornadoes - 13 long-tracked, 151 wind reports and 53 hail
reports. No two patterns are alike, but the SPC day 3 outlook
looks eerily similar to the analog birdshot pattern. The inflow
corridor defined by the marginal risk streams fromt the gulf
through all of la and ms. Typically, this time of year, colder
water temperatures serve as an inhibitor due to cooler marine
layer processes. However, this extended warm period has seen water
temperatures warm to late march values, thereby establishing an
opportunity for some storms to potentially over-achieve this far
south. The better dynamics and kinematic support will be well
north of the area, but enough of a concern on any linear banding
features that may develop to briefly attain severe levels while
moving through and out of our CWA northward. Front slowly surges
through the forecast area Sunday morning but southern branch
placement may maintain rainfall for some time Sunday, possibly not
clearing out until early Monday morning. A little cool down on
temperatures but still above seasonal normals heading into Monday.

Continental high shunts east rather quickly to onset the return
flow process Tuesday with a resurgence of moist gulf flow on warm
frontogenesis that forces more convection in the region as the
boundary lifts north late Tuesday. Upper level ridging takes place
to bring about another stretch of above normal temperatures
Wednesday before yet another front moves into the region latter
part of the week.

Aviation
Vfr conditions through this evening will lower to MVFR ceilings
and spotty MVFR vsby in fog as marine layer clouds advect into
the area overnight. More marine influenced locations like kgpt and
kasd and kpql should lower to ifr with ceilings 005-008 generally
after 04z through mid-mornng Friday.

Marine
Onshore flow at moderate levels to be maintained through Sunday
morning. Cold front settles into the north gulf briefly through
Monday before lifting north as a warm front during the day
Tuesday, then long fetched southerly flow to return for middle of
next week.

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 67 76 67 80 10 60 30 40
btr 68 78 67 81 20 70 30 40
asd 67 76 67 81 10 50 40 30
msy 69 78 69 81 10 60 40 20
gpt 66 73 67 76 10 50 40 30
pql 64 76 67 78 10 40 40 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

24 rr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 20 mi39 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 81°F 65°F1024.1 hPa
CARL1 26 mi39 min 48°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi39 min ESE 14 G 18 76°F 78°F1024.8 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 27 mi39 min SE 13 G 17 73°F 75°F1025.5 hPa
FREL1 33 mi39 min SSE 14 G 18 80°F 1023.2 hPa66°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi39 min SE 8.9 G 16 80°F 76°F1024.2 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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S10
G17
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G9
SE5
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G11
SE3
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G15
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S9
G14
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G5
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G6
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G17
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2 days
ago
S7
G12
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G9
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G19
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G12
S10
G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA9 mi64 minESE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F69°F74%1024.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA17 mi64 minE 147.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F70°F76%1023.7 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS22 mi66 minSE 11 G 157.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F69°F83%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS14
G21
S13SE10S5SE8SE6SE8SE9S7SE4SE4SE4SE6SE4SE4SE5SE7
G15
S13
G19
SE14
G21
SE8S13SE13SE13
G17
SE9
1 day agoSE11
G16
SE7SE6SE5SE5SE5SE7SE5SE5SE6SE7SE7SE7SE7SE9SE9SE12
G22
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G18
S15
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G26
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2 days agoSE12
G17
SE7SE8SE5SE7SE7SE5SE6SE3E33SE6SE8SE11
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G19
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Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:54 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:18 AM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.20.10.100-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0-0000.10.10.20.20.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Chef Menteur
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:14 AM CST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:55 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:53 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM CST     0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.100.10.20.30.30.40.50.60.60.60.60.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.