Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eden Isle, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:48PM Friday February 15, 2019 2:02 PM CST (20:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:39PMMoonset 3:57AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 922 Am Cst Fri Feb 15 2019
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers through the night. Areas of fog after midnight.
Sunday..South winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 922 Am Cst Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis..A cold front will move to near the coast and stall Saturday before moving back north as a warm front Saturday night and Sunday. This cold front is expected to move back south near the coast or just offshore late Sunday night or Monday, then move back north of the coast as a warm front again by Tuesday. A general weakness will remain near the coastal waters for the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eden Isle CDP, LA
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location: 30.22, -89.82     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 151739
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1139 am cst Fri feb 15 2019

Aviation
Ceilings have lowered a bit faster than originally forecast and
are generally sitting between 1500ft and 2500ft as of 1730z.

Expect MVFR conditions to persist through the afternoon with
southerly winds of 8 to 12 knots. Going into this evening, cigs
are expected to lower to ifr range and possibly lifr levels as
low level moisture continues to increase. Areas of fog are
expected near daybreak and have included prevailing and tempo
groups at all terminals to cover this impact. There is some
indication visibility could drop below 1 mile at a few terminals,
but an ensemble forecasting approach gives less than a 40% chance,
so have opted to keep visibility at 1 mile or greater for the
time being. Gradual improvement is expected after sunrise, but not
expecting conditions to get above MVFR for any duration of the
current forecast period. 95 dm

Prev discussion issued 323 am cst Fri feb 15 2019
short term... Not much change in thinking concerning the overall
flow pattern in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere through
the weekend. Overall, a zonal flow pattern will dominate the gulf
south through Sunday. In the low levels, a fast moving area of low
pressure will zip through the tennessee and ohio valleys and
toward the mid-atlantic coast today and tomorrow. A weak frontal
boundary will slide south in the wake of this low, and should
stall over the northern third of the forecast area by Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will remain well above normal through
Sunday with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

Both today and tomorrow will see very little in the way
of upper level support for shower activity, and only expect to see
very isolated light showers develop during the afternoon hours.

Tonight and tomorrow night also look conducive for advection fog
to develop over the nearshore waters and then spread inland
through the overnight hours. Have introduced fog into the forecast
for tonight and tomorrow night.

A fast moving vort MAX embedded within the deep layer zonal flow
aloft will pass through the region on Sunday. A broad region of
increased omega values and forcing will interact with the weak
boundary lingering over the northern part of the cwa, and expect
to see slightly higher rain chances throughout the day.

Fortunately, instability still looks limited, so only scattered
showers are currently forecast for Sunday. Rain chances will be
highest along and north of i-10 with lower rain chances along the
louisiana coast.

Long term... Although the models are in decent agreement
concerning the mid to upper level flow pattern for next week,
there are significant differences in both the timing of shortwave
features riding along with that flow aloft and the placement of a
weak low level boundary draped across the gulf south. Thus,
confidence is high that a warm, humid, unstable airmass with
several periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist through
next Friday, but confidence is significantly lower on when and
where these periods of rain will occur. Have opted to keep the
weak low level boundary in place across the northern half of the
cwa through Friday. This boundary will serve as the focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity through the week. Have also
stayed with a persistence forecast in terms of the timing of the
upper level shortwave features sliding through the region. Rain
chances in the forecast remain highest from Tuesday through
Thursday when omega values peak. Likely pop is in place generally
along and north of the i-10 corridor with lower values along the
louisiana coast and offshore. Instability parameters increase by
midweek and have a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast from
Tuesday through Thursday as well. Given the higher than average
precipitable water values and a favorable flow pattern relative to
the low level boundary, there will be a risk that some bouts of
heavy rain could reform over the same areas and create localized
flooding risks next week.

Marine... A cold front may stall north of or along the coast Saturday allowing
southerly flow to remain until the next cold front moves to the gulf
coast Sunday night into Monday. This front will also stall either
over the coastal waters or along the coast. Winds should become more
easterly as this occurs during the day Monday. This will not last
long as the front will quickly retreat Tuesday bringing the
southeasterly flow back. A general weakness will remain near the
coastal waters through the remainder of the week.

Decision support...

dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: river flood warnings on mississippi river
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 74 57 69 61 20 20 10 30
btr 75 61 74 64 20 20 10 20
asd 73 62 75 63 10 10 20 20
msy 73 63 76 64 10 10 20 20
gpt 70 60 71 62 10 10 10 20
pql 72 62 74 63 10 10 10 20

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 20 mi32 min SSW 8 G 12 66°F 59°F1010.6 hPa
CARL1 26 mi32 min 46°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi32 min S 12 G 16 68°F 63°F1011.4 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 27 mi32 min S 8 G 12 64°F 59°F1010.8 hPa
FREL1 33 mi32 min S 8 G 13 67°F 1009.6 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi32 min S 7 G 17 69°F 63°F1010.9 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA9 mi69 minS 75.00 miLight Rain67°F62°F84%1011.3 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA17 mi69 minS 92.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F63°F87%1011.4 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS22 mi72 minSSW 97.00 miFog/Mist66°F60°F83%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S14
G19
S10
G17
SW5S7S7S7S9S8S6CalmCalmS4CalmCalmS5S8S7S6S7S7S10
G18
S7S7
1 day agoS6SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S8S9S7
G15
S11S13S11
G21
2 days ago5CalmCalmCalmN7NW6N5CalmN3N5N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE6N8
G17
4NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.