Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Shores, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:52PM Sunday July 23, 2017 1:55 AM CDT (06:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:16AMMoonset 8:11PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1029 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..West winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1029 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure will gradually build across the central gulf of mexico into next week. A light to moderate southwest to west flow generally prevails tonight into early next week. Scattered showers and storms continue into next week, with the best coverage mostly during the overnight and morning hours. Little change is seas expected.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Shores, AL
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location: 30.24, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 230453
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1153 pm cdt Sat jul 22 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
23 06z issuance... Isolated showers and thunderstorms over
interior portions of southeast ms and southwest al have dissipated
as expected. Will likely see some redevelopment of isolated
showers and storms near the coast and just offshore late tonight,
primarily after around 23 109z Sunday (as indicated by hrrr).

During the day on Sunday, scattered showers and storms are expected
to develop spread inland during the course of the day. Localized
MVFR or briefly lower ceiling visibility conditions, along with
gusty winds, can be expected in and near any of the stronger
storms that develop on Sunday. Otherwise,VFR conditions expected
through most of the period for most locations. Light and variable
surface winds tonight, expect light south near the coast. A
predominately light southerly surface wind up to around 10 knots
Sunday afternoon. Showers and storms become more isolated once
again Sunday evening, with surface wind again becoming light and
variable. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 715 pm cdt Sat jul 22 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

23 06z issuance... Isolated showers and lingering thunderstorms
over interior portions of southeast ms and southwest al early
this evening, dissipating by mid evening. Will likely see some
redevelopment of isolated showers and storms near the coast late
tonight, primarily after around 23 09z Sunday. Scattered showers
and storms then expected to develop spread inland during the
course of the day on Sunday. Localized MVFR or briefly lower
ceiling visibility conditions, along with gusty winds can be
expected in and near any of the stronger storms that develop.

Otherwise,VFR conditions expected through most of the period for
most locations. Light and variable winds tonight, expect light
south near the coast, becoming light predominate southerly up to
around 10 knots Sunday afternoon. 12 ds
prev discussion... Issued 401 pm cdt Sat jul 22 2017
near term now through Sunday ... An upper level low continues to
drift westward across southern la and the adjacent northern gulf of
mexico on the southern fringe of an upper level ridge of high
pressure stretching eastward from the plains to the tennessee
valley. The combination of plentiful moisture (precipitable water
values between 1.7" and 2.0") and typical summertime instability
(mlcape values ranging between 1500-2500 j kg) has resulted in
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly along the
advancing seabreeze this afternoon. A few storms have occasionally
pulsed up strong and have been capable of producing localized wind
gusts over 40 mph, frequent lightning strikes and very heavy
downpours. There will still be opportunity for additional isolated
to scattered storms to develop farther inland through the remainder
of the afternoon. Otherwise, typically hot and humid conditions
prevail outside of convection, with temperatures in the lower 90s
and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s producing heat indices between
100-105.

Convection should gradually diminish in coverage over inland areas
this evening with loss of daytime heating, though isolated storms
may persist through 9-10 pm. A lull in activity could then occur for
a few hours before additional isolated to scattered showers and
storms develop near the coast again sometime after midnight. Will
maintain 20-30% pops over southern areas, with the highest coverage
drawn near the immediate coast and beaches after 06z. Overnight lows
will range in the lower to mid 70s inland and 75-80 near the
immediate coast and beaches.

Our forecast area will remain between the upper low inverted trough
extending from the western gulf of mexico to southern la and another
upper trough digging toward the eastern CONUS Sunday. Plentiful
moisture and instability over our area will support another round of
scattered showers and storms developing from south to north through
the day along the seabreeze. Will have pops remaining in the high
end scattered coverage range (40-50%) over most of the area. A few
storms may occasionally pulse strong with gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall given the moist and unstable
environment. Highs Sunday should range from the lower to mid 90s
inland, and around 90 near the immediate coast and beaches. MAX heat
indices generally range between 100-103, perhaps locally as high as
around 105. 21
short term Sunday night through Tuesday night ... Sunday night
through Monday, a combination of an upper ridge that has built
west over the gulf of mexico and an upper high over the nm tx
border keep an upper trough stationary and tilted over the lower
mississippi river valley to the southern appalachians. A surface
ridge that has developed over the central gulf of mexico keeps a
steady south to southwesterly flow over the lower miss river
valley and southeast, keeping deep layer moisture high (precip h20
levels around 2"). In combination with upper dynamics from the
upper trough and a daily gulf breeze expected to move inland, rain
chances around (near the coast) to a bit above (inland towards
the miss river valley closer to the better upper support) are
expected. With a bit of upper subsidence from the gulf ridge
counter balancing the better than seasonal rain chances, temps a
bit above seasonal expected at night (general low to mid 70s) ,
around seasonal during the day (upper 80s to low 90s).

Monday night through Tuesday night... A shortwave trough swinging
east over the northeastern CONUS flattens and pushes south the
gulf ridge, allowing the upper trough to the west of the forecast
area to tilt a bit more (gfs) or shift east a bit (ecmwf).

Consensus leans the current package towards the GFS in this time
frame. With the upper trough tilting, but remaining north of the
forecast area, a cooler wetter to warmer drier gradient sets up
over the southeast. For our little piece of the southeast, this
means a tighter diurnal temp range over the northern half of the
forecast area with better than seasonal rain chances, warmer and
a bit drier over the southern half (around seasonal temps and
pops).

16
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... In the extended, the
disparity amongst the guidance continues. The GFS is advertising
the upper trough moving off to the east quickly Wednesday into
Wednesday night, allowing the upper ridge centered over the nm tx
border to build east over the southern plains to the lower
mississippi river valley. The ECMWF is advertising the upper
trough continuing to shift east, to the east coast. Both are
advertising more shortwave energy diving into the upper trough
from over the plains, helping to maintain it. Both are advertising
a decrease in pops through the latter half of the week, the gfs
especially so. The GFS also is advertising a warmer scenario due
to the better eastward extent of the wester upper high. Have went
with a blend in the extended, with pops tapering downward to below
seasonal and temps moderating upward to a bit above seasonal,
with Thursday Friday being the driest and warmest. Saturday, will
see a return of better rain chances along with around to a bit
below seasonal temps as shortwave energy moves towards the
forecast area from the northwest.

Marine... The persistent pattern of showers and thunderstorms
forming over the marine area mainly during overnight and morning
hours before moving inland through the afternoon will continue into
early next week. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty
straight line winds and frequent lightning, and locally higher waves
and seas. Otherwise, expect a light to moderate southwesterly to
westerly wind flow to prevail over the marine area into next week as
a ridge of high pressure stretches westward over the central gulf of
mexico. 21

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 8 mi55 min WSW 5.1 84°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.7)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 14 mi70 min 81°F 76°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 14 mi65 min SW 9.7 G 14 84°F 87°F2 ft1014.5 hPa (-0.9)77°F
WBYA1 14 mi49 min 86°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 18 mi43 min SW 12 G 14 85°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 20 mi55 min W 6 G 8 84°F 1014.5 hPa (-0.8)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 22 mi85 min WSW 11 85°F 1014.6 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 24 mi85 min WSW 9.9 85°F 1014.9 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi85 min WSW 8.9 84°F 1014.9 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 28 mi43 min 83°F 89°F1015 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 32 mi55 min WNW 2.9 82°F 1014.2 hPa (-1.4)
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 34 mi43 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 80°F 87°F1015.4 hPa
PTOA1 35 mi43 min 82°F 76°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 37 mi43 min 81°F 87°F1014.6 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 40 mi70 min N 2.9 80°F 1016 hPa75°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 43 mi43 min WSW 11 G 12 84°F 1015.4 hPa
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 44 mi49 min 90°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 44 mi43 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 1014.3 hPa
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 47 mi43 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 80°F 1014.6 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 47 mi49 min 86°F

Wind History for Fort Morgan, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL4 mi80 minSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F77°F86%1014.9 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi80 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1014.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL21 mi59 minN 0 miPartly Cloudy80°F75°F85%1015 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE5CalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmCalmSE7SE7SE8
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5SW13
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2 days agoCalmE5S8
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SW8CalmCalmNW5NW4N5N4N5S7S8SW9SW9
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SW9S7SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:47 AM CDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:50 AM CDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:10 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:10 PM CDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.10.20.40.60.811.31.51.71.922.121.91.61.310.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:47 AM CDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:03 AM CDT     2.48 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:58 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:44 PM CDT     -2.51 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:11 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.91.41.92.22.42.52.42.21.81.30.7-0-0.7-1.3-1.9-2.2-2.5-2.5-2.4-2.1-1.7-1.2-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.