Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Shores, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:40PM Friday February 15, 2019 1:25 PM CST (19:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 3:48AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 938 Am Cst Fri Feb 15 2019
Rest of today..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Saturday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Areas of fog after midnight. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Areas of fog. Chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 938 Am Cst Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate onshore flow pattern will prevail across the marine area through much of the period. A cold front approaches from the north and stalls Monday shifting winds offshore and bringing showers and storms to the area through the early part of next week. Onshore flow redevelops and waves build Tuesday into the middle of next week ahead of the next system.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Shores, AL
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location: 30.24, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 151717
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1117 am cst Fri feb 15 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
18z issuance... Overcast skies and scattered light rain showers
continue over the local area throughout today. CIGS remain at
borderlineVFR MVFR levels before dropping to MVFR and possibly
ifr tonight into Saturday morning. Some light patchy fog is
possible late tonight as well. Winds remain generally light and
out of the southwest through the period. 49

Prev discussion issued 542 am cst Fri feb 15 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance...

MVFR conditions develop later this morning associated with low
clouds. South winds persist throughout the day today with the
possibility of scattered showers well inland in the afternoon.

After sunset and into the late evening ifr conditions may be
possible as clouds continue to lower with patchy fog developing
after midnight and into the overnight hours. Dj 17
prev discussion... Issued 434 am cst Fri feb 15 2019
near term now through Friday night ... Northwest flow aloft will
continue to advect cloud cover into the southeast throughout the
day. A weak shortwave impulse embedded within the flow regime
will act as the main driver for rain chances during the late
afternoon and evening. This shortwave forms a weak surface low
pressure system in central alabama helping to maintain the
southerly wind flow locally. The increased moisture from the gulf
should continue overcast level low clouds and dreary conditions
for most of the day. As the aforementioned shortwave moves
eastward, scattered showers become possible in the afternoon
chiefly for areas north of hwy 84 though light showers are
possible throughout the forecast area. Lightning isn't expected
with this system as CAPE values are near 0 j kg. Daytime highs
will be about 4-6 degrees above normal in the upper 60s and low
70s.

As the evening progresses, the upper level wind field transitions
to a more zonal flow regime with the southerly low level flow
continuing through the night. Dew points increase into the low 60s
overnight and with minimum temperatures also expected in the low
60s patchy advection fog development becomes an increasing
possibility. Fog formation will likely be the main hazard to watch
overnight as the extent and intensity of the possible fog will
have to be monitored for advisory criteria. Dj 17
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... Some spotty light
rain showers possible early Saturday as a weakening cold front
pushes southeastward across the area and stalls out along the
coast. A strengthening southerly flow over the gulf then pushes
this boundary northward late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night
as another weak cold front approaches from texas. Daytime highs
Saturday climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s generally along
and northwest of the i-65 corridor and low to mid 70s south and
east. Southerly flow in the warm sector Saturday night expected to
produce areas of fog... Possibly dense... Which then lingers into
the Sunday morning hours. The approaching weak cold front is
projected to move into and across the forecast area Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night bringing with it a round of light
rain showers. The upper level dynamics with this front will remain
north of the coast with the greatest shower coverage expected
over the northern portions of more interior alabama
counties... Choctaw, clarke, wilcox, butler and crenshaw. Rainfall
totals however are expected to remain relatively light even over
these areas, perhaps a quarter of an inch. Will have to monitor
for perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will
trend unseasonably warm through the period, climbing into the mid
to upper 70s on Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights
only falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s. 08
long term Monday through Thursday ... An unseasonably warm, humid
and unsettled weather pattern settles over the area. Increasing
southerly flow will push the stalled boundary lingering along the
coast Monday northward as a warm front during the day on Tuesday.

The region then remains firmly in the warm sector through
Thursday. Minor waves propagating through the southwesterly flow
aloft will likely tap into some of the underlying instability
creating periods of shower activity. A cold front is projected to
stall to our west as an upper level trough over the southwestern
states continues to deepen. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop and train along this boundary and there remains a great
deal of uncertainty as to where it will actually lie. At this
time, have kept it west of our SE mississippi counties through
Wednesday then potentially into SE mississippi and SW alabama
on Wednesday night - Thursday timeframe per the 00z gfs.

Increasing shear and instability will create the potential for
thunderstorm activity Wednesday through Thursday. We'll have to
monitor developments closely for the potential of strong to severe
storms. 08
marine... A light to moderate southerly flow is expected to continue
today and through the weekend with the possibility of marine fog
overnight. A weak front pushes into the northern gulf of mexico
Monday shifting winds out of the north. This is short lived
however as a surface low pressure to the west and gradient
southerly winds become established Tuesday into the middle of the
week. This moderate wind flow is expected to generate waves of 4-5
feet in height over the near and offshore waters. Finally, late
in the work week the ample moisture and unsettled upper level
pattern could result in increased rain chances over the marine
zones late Thursday and into the weekend. Dj 17

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 10 mi86 min S 11 51°F 1013.5 hPa (-1.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 14 mi36 min S 9.7 G 12 66°F 3 ft1013.6 hPa62°F
WBYA1 14 mi38 min 62°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 14 mi101 min 67°F 1014 hPa60°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 18 mi38 min S 17 G 18 65°F 1012.6 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 20 mi86 min S 7 G 8 64°F 1013.8 hPa (-1.0)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 24 mi56 min S 11 64°F 1013.2 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi56 min S 8 1013.5 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 28 mi38 min S 5.1 G 7 66°F 59°F1013.3 hPa
MBPA1 29 mi38 min 62°F 60°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 34 mi44 min SSW 4.1 G 7 69°F 58°F1012.7 hPa
PTOA1 35 mi38 min 64°F 64°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 37 mi44 min 68°F 56°F1012.5 hPa
GBRM6 40 mi146 min 67°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 40 mi101 min SSW 8 64°F 1015 hPa61°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 43 mi38 min SSW 12 G 13 64°F 1013.7 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 47 mi44 min 61°F

Wind History for Fort Morgan, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL4 mi51 minSSW 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast70°F18°F14%1013.2 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi31 minS 810.00 miOvercast68°F59°F73%1012.5 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL21 mi30 minSSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F61°F73%1013 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE5CalmN3S8SW3CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS10
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2 days agoW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:47 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:18 AM CST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:30 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:47 PM CST     1.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.30.60.811.21.41.61.71.71.71.51.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
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Fri -- 12:58 AM CST     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:49 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:53 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:20 PM CST     2.03 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:32 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:40 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:39 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-2-1.9-1.7-1.4-1-0.50.10.611.41.71.9221.91.61.30.90.4-0.2-0.7-1.3-1.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.