Friday, December14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Shores, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:53PM Friday December 14, 2018 10:56 PM CST (04:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:49PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 941 Pm Cst Fri Dec 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cst Saturday...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 18 to 23 knots becoming west. Seas 5 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers late in the evening.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 941 Pm Cst Fri Dec 14 2018
Synopsis..A moderate to strong southwest to westerly wind flow continues over the marine area tonight and gradually diminishes on Saturday. A light to moderate offshore flow develops late Saturday and persists into the early part of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Shores, AL
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location: 30.24, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 150220
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
820 pm cst Fri dec 14 2018

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Made some minor adjustments to the afternoon forecast
package. Adjusted near term sky cover downward as a dry slot
moving into southwest alabama will provide some breaks in cloud
cover. Also trimmed back pops. Expect most of the forecast area to
remain dry overnight. Northwest florida and eastern counties in
our south central alabama area could still experience a light
shower or two as the main baroclinic band gradually shifts
eastward over them. Also left a slight chance for light
precipitation overnight for our SE mississippi and more inland
southwest alabama counties as the middle low over SW mississippi
moves northeastward into northern alabama. 08

Prev discussion issued 621 pm cst Fri dec 14 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance...VFR conditions persist through the early evening
before ceilings lower to MVFR overnight. Patchy light fog expected
in the early morning prior to sunrise in a few spots, but
ceilings and visibility should remain MVFR. As the upper low
passes over the region, winds will slowly turn more southwesterly
overnight while occasional drizzle will persist across the
eastern half of the area. 07 mb
prev discussion... Issued 405 pm cst Fri dec 14 2018
near term now through Saturday ... Models similar in moving a large
upper level low pressure area over central louisiana this afternoon
northeast across central mississippi tonight and on into eastern
tennessee by the end of the day on Saturday. Occluded surface low
will follow similar track. With the cold pool aloft and strong
mid upper level forcing associated with the upper low, widespread
cloudiness is expected to continue across the region tonight and
through much of the day on Saturday. There could still be a brief
isolated convective shower, and more likely a slight chance of off
and on light rain or drizzle through the near term period, but
primarily free of any significant precipitation. Cool and drier
conditions, with dewpoint temperatures falling into the 40s across
most of the area tonight into Saturday as low level wind flow shifts
from southerly to more westerly. Low temperatures tonight in the mid
and upper 40s over all of the interior, lower 50s near and along the
immediate coast. On Saturday, with continued mostly cloudy skies
high temperatures expected to range from mid to upper 50s over most
of the interior to the lower 60s near and along the coast. 12 ds
short term Saturday night through Monday night ... An occluded system
located over eastern parts of the tennessee river valley
continues to move off towards the northeast. Low level moisture
wrapping around the system will keep skies mostly cloudy over the
forecast area well into Sunday. Lows Saturday night are expected
to fall to around seasonal levels as a bit cooler airmass moving
over the forecast area is tempered by the cloud cover. Around 40
to the low 40s are expected for lows. With the area seeing more
sun Sunday, temperatures are expected to rise from Saturday, but
remain just below seasonal norms. Highs around 60 to low 60s
expected.

Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave trough moves into an upper
trough that has developed in the wake of the exiting system, sending
a re-enforcing front across the area Sunday night into Monday. A
mainly drier airmass moves over the forecast area, moving out any
residual cloud cover. With better overnight radiational cooling
Sunday and Monday nights, lows dropping to the upper 30s to low
40s are expected. Highs Monday in the low to mid 60s expected,
with sunny skies and a drier airmass allowing for better daytime
heating.

16
long term Tuesday through Friday ... Tuesday through Wednesday,
shortwave energy digs an upper trough over the plains. Surface
high pressure quickly shifts east over the southeast in response,
bringing return flow off the gulf of mexico to areas just west of
the forecast area. Temperatures increase into Tuesday, but with
increasing mid upper level cloud cover will limit any temperature
increases Wednesday with the increasing return flow. Highs in the
low to mid 60s expected each day, with lows Tuesday night ranging
from around 40 inland to upper 40s along the coast.

Wednesday night through Thursday, the plains upper trough swings
east of the mississippi river. Guidance continues to paint
differing pictures in the handling of system, and with this package,
a bit later time frame of occurrence. The ECMWF is advertising a
closed low developing over the southern plains and moving east
over the southeast; the GFS is advertising an open wave. Both are
advertising decent mid upper jet dynamics passing, but also
consistent in advertising any surface based instability remaining
well south of the coast as the system passes. Have put some
thunder in the forecast Wednesday night south of the coast, but
have kept land areas thunder-free for now.

Thursday night through Friday, cooler, drier air moves over the
forecast area behind a frontal passage early Thursday night.

Temperatures below seasonal expected.

Marine... A moderate to strong southwest flow over the marine area
tonight will become more western early on Saturday and begin to
diminish somewhat by late Saturday. High seas and rough conditions
will gradually begin to subside by late Saturday as well. A light to
moderate northwest to northerly flow is expected late Saturday and
will continue into the early part of next week. A few showers
tonight and Saturday night, with rainfree conditions then expected
through most of the remainder of the forecast period. By late
Wednesday winds likely to become more easterly, especially over the
gulf waters, with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
returning to the marine area. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk until 3 am cst Saturday for alz265-266.

High surf advisory until 3 am cst Saturday for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk until 3 am cst Saturday for flz202-204-206.

High surf advisory until 3 am cst Saturday for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Saturday for gmz631-632-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 10 mi86 min W 17 57°F 1013.9 hPa
WBYA1 14 mi56 min 59°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 14 mi56 min 19 G 23 1013.9 hPa (+0.8)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 14 mi71 min 55°F 1013 hPa47°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 18 mi56 min W 25 G 28 57°F 1013.1 hPa (+0.7)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 20 mi56 min WSW 11 G 16 56°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.9)46°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 24 mi86 min SW 18 56°F 1013.5 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi86 min W 21 57°F 1013.2 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 28 mi56 min WNW 5.1 G 12 57°F 58°F1013.5 hPa
MBPA1 29 mi56 min 53°F 46°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 34 mi62 min SW 4.1 G 6 52°F 56°F1013.5 hPa
PTOA1 35 mi56 min 53°F 47°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 37 mi62 min 53°F 52°F1013.2 hPa
GBRM6 40 mi116 min 52°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 40 mi71 min WSW 13 55°F 1014 hPa47°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 43 mi56 min WSW 23 G 27 56°F 1014.3 hPa (+0.7)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 47 mi62 min 55°F

Wind History for Fort Morgan, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL4 mi81 minWSW 910.00 miFair54°F45°F75%1013.9 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi61 minWSW 710.00 miFair54°F44°F72%1013.5 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL21 mi2 hrsWSW 810.00 miOvercast59°F52°F78%1013.3 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE5E5E6E4NE3NW4NW5E6E11E12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5SE6E9
G14
E5E7E5E5E5E3E3SE7SE3SE6
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:07 AM CST     1.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:49 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:57 AM CST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:05 PM CST     1.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:27 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:47 PM CST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.21.21.110.90.70.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.30.40.60.70.80.9111

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:51 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM CST     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:43 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:53 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM CST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:29 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.10.40.70.911.1110.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.