Friday, January18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dauphin Island, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:16PM Friday January 18, 2019 3:41 PM CST (21:41 UTC) Moonrise 3:53PMMoonset 5:05AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 916 Am Cst Fri Jan 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west 18 to 23 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 916 Am Cst Fri Jan 18 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate southerly flow will increase late today into Saturday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. A strong northwest flow is expected in the wake of the front late Saturday through Sunday. Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible late Saturday night through Sunday morning. A moderate to strong southerly flow will develop by Tuesday ahead of another strong cold front approaching from the northwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dauphin Island, AL
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location: 30.25, -88.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 181810 aad
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1210 pm cst Fri jan 18 2019

Discussion See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update Looking at the current visible satellite loop, breaks in
the low stratus are appearing over the forecast area, with greatest
coverage closer to the coast. With the area beginning to see sun,
highs today in the upper 60s are still expected across the area, a
bit cooler north of highway 84 with this portion of the forecast
area expected to see overcast conditions lasting longer. Current
forecast is generally on track, with no updates needed at this
time. 16

Aviation
18z issuance... At this time, general MVFR level CIGS taper to ifr
over northwestern parts of the forecast area. Visbys have
generally risen toVFR levels with west to southwest winds ranging
from light in the areas of ifr CIGS to south to southwest 5 to 10
knots along the coast and southeast of i65. Am expecting residual
ifr CIGS to rise to low end MVFR levels through the afternoon
with the day's heating and winds to become a general south to
southwest 5 to 10 knots. This evening, winds become a general
southerly around 5 knots. With cool waters south of the coast,
advection fog stratus is expected to develop later this evening,
bringing ifr CIGS and visbys back. Southerly winds are expected to
rise to around 10 to 15 knots late tonight into Saturday morning,
then 15 to 20 knots late late Saturday morning as a cold front
moves closer to the area from the west. Visbys improve to MVFRVFR
and CIGS to low end MVFR with the increasing low level winds.

Rain coverage will increase Saturday morning through the day
Saturday as line of strong thunderstorms starts moving across
eastern mississippi western-most alabama during the late morning.

Low end MVFR conditions continue outside of northeastward moving
scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the line beginning
soon after sunrise, with increasing coverage spreading east over
central alabama and the western florida panhandle though the day.

The line of thunderstorms is expected to cross from western to
central alabama and the western florida panhandle during Saturday
afternoon. 16

Prev discussion issued 915 am cst Fri jan 18 2019
discussion... See updated information for land and marine areas below.

Land and marine update... With d.O.T. Cameras and latest 15z
observations showing visibilities generally above one mile over
the advisory area, have cancelled the dense fog advisory.

16
prev discussion... Issued 722 am cst Fri jan 18 2019
discussion... See updated information below.

Update... A high risk of rip currents is now in effect for the
gulf beaches of al and nwfl Sat through sun. 32 ee
marine... Hazardous conditions for small craft will be likely over
the entire marine area beginning after sunrise sat. A small craft
advisory is now in effect for the entire marine area from 6 am
cst Sat through 6 pm cst sun. Frequent gusts to gale force will
also be likely in the wake of a very strong cold front late sat
night through Sun afternoon. A gale watch may be required later
today or tonight. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 646 am cst Fri jan 18 2019
discussion... See updated information below.

Update... A high risk of rip currents can be expected along the
gulf beaches of al and nwfl Sat through sun. Expect further
updates later this morning. 32 ee
marine... Hazardous conditions for small craft will be likely over
the entire marine area beginning after sunrise sat. A small craft
advisory will be posted later this morning. Frequent gusts to
gale force will also be likely in the wake of a very strong cold
front late Sat night through Sun afternoon. A gale watch may be
required later today or tonight. 32 ee
aviation...

12z issuance... Ifr to MVFR CIGS and visibilities through about
18.15z followed by mostly MVFR CIGS through about 19.06z then
mostly ifr CIGS and visibilities through 19.12z. Lower CIGS and
visibilities mostly from low stratus clouds and fog this morning
followed by bkn to ovc low clouds today and this evening then more
low stratus clouds and fog after 19.06z. Winds will continue to
shift mostly southwest to west at 8 to 10 knots today then backing
to the south increasing to 10 to 15 knots from 19.06 through
19.12z. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 504 am cst Fri jan 18 2019
near term now through Friday night ... A weak upper ridge of
high pressure will move quickly over the north central gulf states
and SE CONUS today and early tonight in response to a deepening
upper trough approaching quickly from the west. Near the surface a
deep surface low will track northeast from north tx to the mid ms
river valley through tonight. With this pattern deep moisture
quickly returns to the region today and tonight starting aloft in
the mid to upper levels then filling in near surface quickly
overnight and early Sat as the upper system quickly approaches
from the west. Model soundings continue to show weak surface based
instability forming over western and coastal sections of the
forecast near sunrise Sat morning. Pwats also climb to about 1.4
inches by 12z sat. Low status along with areas of dense fog will
also become better developed this morning, continuing through mid
morning today. A dense fog advisory will continue for much of the
western half of the forecast area through mid morning. Mostly
cloudy skies with a better flow from the southeast and south can
be expected late today and tonight. Very light rain early today
will continue to shift east of the forecast area this morning
followed by more widespread heavier rain developing and shifting
east and south over the forecast area mostly after midnight
tonight.

With this pattern temperatures will warm to 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal norms today and tonight. Highs today will range from lower
60s generally along and north of highway 84 and the middle 60s for
all other locations to the south. Lows tonight will range from the
mid to upper 50s for most inland areas and the upper 50s to lower
60s along the immediate coast. 32 ee
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... A deep mid to upper
level trough will be translating eastward across the southern
plains states and ARKLATEX region early Saturday morning, while
surface low pressure should be centered over the vicinity of
northeastern arkansas and western tennessee, with an attendant
cold front trailing southward across the lower mississippi valley
region. An 80-100 knot 500 mb jet is forecast to lift across
mississippi and far northwestern alabama Saturday morning, then
across much of the rest of alabama by Saturday afternoon as the
trough axis lifts eastward across the mississippi valley region.

The surface cold front will sweep eastward across southeast
mississippi and adjacent southwest alabama late Saturday morning
into early Saturday afternoon, before clearing the rest of south
central alabama and the western florida panhandle late Saturday
afternoon into early Saturday evening. Deep layer moisture and
large scale ascent will initially arrive into southeast
mississippi and adjacent southwest alabama Saturday morning, then
across the remainder of the CWA into Saturday afternoon as jet
dynamics spread overhead and the cold front approaches. Numerous
to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms associated with an
advancing qlcs squall line will spread across our region through
the day Saturday, and have trended pops up close to 90% across
most of our area. Again, convective coverage will be favored our
western and northwestern zones in the morning, before spreading
across the rest of the CWA into Saturday afternoon. The back edge
of the convective complex should be exiting far eastern portions
of the forecast area by early Saturday evening, and have pops
quickly falling to 20-30% east of a camden to gulf shores line
after 6 pm.

Short range model guidance remains in generally good agreement
that a little better instability will spread across our forecast
area ahead of the approaching front Saturday, with MLCAPE values
reaching up to around 500-700 j kg across the region. Strong deep
layer shear will also be spreading over the region, while a strong
low level jet also develops with 45-55 knots of 850 mb flow. These
parameters will be favorable for bowing segments along the
advancing squall line, and an associated potential for damaging
wind gusts. Forecast soundings also show curvature to the
hodographs, which will also favor embedded supercell structures
and a potential for a couple of tornadoes. The day 2 outlook from
spc now features an upgrade to a slight risk of severe weather
over most of our area Saturday and will highlight in our local
graphics and the hazardous weather outlook. Given the fairly quick
moving nature of the qlcs, rainfall amounts do not look overly
heavy, generally averaging between one half to three quarters of
an inch, but could see locally higher amounts between 1 and 2
inches in a few locations.

Winds will turn northwesterly and increase following the passage
of the cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Colder
temperatures follow Saturday night through Sunday night. Highs on
Sunday may only reach the mid to upper 40s over the interior, and
around 50 closer to the coast. A light freeze still looks to
impact the region on Sunday night, with lows in the mid 20s to
around 30 over the interior and lower to mid 30s near the
immediate coast. 21
long term Monday through Thursday ... A dry northwesterly to
zonal flow pattern aloft will prevail across our region Monday,
with mostly clear skies and cool temperatures continuing. The mid
level flow pattern will once again amplify Tuesday into Wednesday,
as the next trough deepens over the central part of the u.S. A
gradual return of low level moisture along with weak isentropic
ascent will bring the next chance of rain showers to the region by
Tuesday. Rain chances increase to likely again Tuesday night and
Wednesday as deep layer moisture and ascent spread over the region
ahead of this next approaching trough. Operational medium range
guidance differs on the progression of this next trough, so it is
uncertain if rain chances will persist beyond Wednesday. For now,
we have trended a little closer to the ECMWF solution, with
precipitation chances diminishing Wednesday night, with cooler and
drier weather returning next Thursday. 21
marine... Areas of fog, possibly dense, can be expected mostly
over mobile bay and the mississippi sound early this morning. A
dense fog advisory is in effect for these areas through mid morning
today. A light to moderate southerly wind flow will increase late
today through Sat as a strong cold front approaches from the
northwest. Showers and thunderstorms some possible strong to severe
can be expected mostly during the day on sat. A strong northwest
flow is expected in the wake of the front late Sat through sun.

Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible late Sat night through
sun morning with seas building to around 15 feet well offshore by
sunrise sun. A gale watch may be required later today or tonight. A
moderate to strong southerly flow will develop by Tue ahead of
another strong cold front approaching from the northwest. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk from Saturday morning through Sunday
afternoon for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk from Saturday morning through Sunday
afternoon for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 6 am Saturday to 6 pm cst Sunday for
gmz630>636-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 0 mi41 min SSW 5.1 G 8 62°F 1017.5 hPa (-2.0)59°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 3 mi47 min SW 5.1 G 7 61°F 1017.6 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 5 mi71 min S 7 59°F 1017.3 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 7 mi71 min SSW 5.1 59°F 1018 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 13 mi71 min SE 8.9 57°F 1017.3 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 18 mi116 min 64°F 1017 hPa58°F
WBYA1 18 mi47 min 60°F
MBPA1 19 mi47 min 57°F 57°F
GBRM6 20 mi101 min 64°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 20 mi116 min S 5.1 61°F 1018 hPa59°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 23 mi47 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 60°F 1018.4 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 27 mi47 min 60°F
PPTA1 28 mi71 min 62°F 1017.3 hPa
PTOA1 29 mi47 min 58°F 58°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 30 mi41 min SSE 7 58°F 1017.6 hPa (-2.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 31 mi41 min W 3.9 G 3.9 61°F 1018 hPa (-2.1)58°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 32 mi47 min 60°F 52°F1017.3 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 47 mi47 min S 6 G 8 62°F 56°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Dauphin Island, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi46 minSSW 410.00 miFair63°F57°F83%1017.6 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL22 mi46 minSW 510.00 miFair64°F56°F78%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from CQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW4S3S3S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5S7S8S7S5Calm
2 days agoNW5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N4NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5N3CalmW4N3CalmNW4

Tide / Current Tables for Dauphin Island, Mobile Bay, Alabama
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:14 AM CST     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:04 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:12 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:46 PM CST     2.20 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:52 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:54 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-2-2.2-2.1-1.9-1.6-1.2-0.7-0.10.40.91.41.722.22.22.11.91.51.10.5-0.1-0.7-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.