Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lacombe, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:24PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:23 PM CDT (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:50AMMoonset 5:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 411 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 411 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis..Ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the southeast into the weekend. A cold front will approach the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacombe, LA
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location: 30.25, -90.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 192104
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
404 pm cdt Thu oct 19 2017

Short term
Low and mid-level moisture will continue to stream into the area
through tomorrow night on the back of increasing southeast flow.

A few showers have managed to develop along the louisiana coast
today in response to this moisture increase, and expect to see
this trend persist through tomorrow afternoon. Have pop of 20 to
30 percent in the forecast for tomorrow afternoon mainly to the
south of the i-10 corridor where deeper moisture will be available
to tap into. Temperatures will remain warmer than average with
overnight lows only upper 50s and lower 60s north of i-10 and the
middle to upper 60s south of i-10. Tomorrow will continue the
trend of above normal temperatures as highs warm back into the
middle 80s. Any influence of the upper level ridge will be gone by
tomorrow night as a strong longwave trough axis approaches from
the west. With increasing positive vorticity advection taking hold
tomorrow night, expect to see pop values south of i-10 increase
into the 30 to 40 percent range. North of i-10, lower overall
moisture content and some weak low level stability should keep
shower activity at bay through the night. Lows will continue to
modify tomorrow night, with temps only cooling into the middle to
upper 60s north of i-10, and the lower 70s south of i-10.

Increased omega values in the mid and upper levels associated with
the increasing positive vorticity advection in advance of the
approaching trough will support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Convective activity should start out
more scattered in the mid to late morning hours, but as
temperatures climb back into the middle 80s in the afternoon, more
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. It
looks like an area of enhanced low level moisture convergence
could set up near the atchafalaya basin, and have the highest pop
in place for areas west of the i-55 corridor. MLCAPE values of
around 1000 j kg and weak shear support more typical summer like
convective development on Saturday. At worst, a few strong storms
may try to fire up in the afternoon hours and produce locally
heavy downpours and gusty winds below severe limits. Pop values
range from 30 to 50 percent east of i-55 to 50 to 70 percent west
of i-55 Saturday afternoon. Although ample moisture will remain in
place Saturday night along with decent forcing throughout the
atmospheric column, the loss of daytime heating will decrease
convective potential and pop values for Saturday night. Expect to
see only a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
late Saturday night as temperatures cool into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

Long term
Sunday into Sunday night will be the most active portion of the
extended forecast period as a strong upper level trough axis and
associated surface low and cold front sweep through the forecast
area. There will be little in the way of convective inhibition as
mlcape values rise back to around 1000 j kg. Expect to see shower
and thunderstorm activity begin to become more numerous through
the mid and late morning hours in advance of the approaching low
and cold front, and expect to see a few of these thunderstorms
turn strong to possibly severe. This severe concern is largely
driven by some weak directional shear resulting in storm relative
helicity values around 150m2 s2 over the northern parts of the
cwa. Longer lived and deeper rotating updrafts combined with low
wet bulb zero heights of around 12,000 feet should support some
large hail development in the strongest storms Sunday morning.

Lingering dry air in the mid-levels could also entrain into any
downdrafts creating a favorable environment for locally strong
winds as well.

Heading into the afternoon hours, the a pre-frontal trough and
associated line of convection should race across the forecast
area. This band of showers and thunderstorms could also contain
some severe storms, but the severe threat should shift from a
large hail event to a damaging straight line wind event as
directional shear decreases and speed shear increases. Have a high
pop of 80 percent or greater for much of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon, as the line is expected to move rather quickly from
west to east. Temperatures in advance of the line of convection
should easily rise back into the middle 80s. The actual cold front
and area of low pressure should then sweep through the area Sunday
night. The severe threat should diminish Sunday night in the wake
of the pre-frontal trough as a shield of light to moderate rain
with some embedded elevated thunderstorm activity trails the
leading squall line. This should greatly stabilize the
environment as the actual front moves through. This is easily
noted by reduced MLCAPE values of less than 500 j kg and decreased
low level lapse rates of less than 6.0c km in the latest model
soundings. Only expect to see showers and a wind shift to the west
accompany the actual frontal passage.

Expect to see the front clear the mississippi coastal counties
early Monday morning with decreasing rain chances and clearing
skies through the morning hours on Monday. Deep layer northwest
flow, strong subsidence, and dry air advection will dominate the
forecast area from Monday afternoon through the remainder of the
week. A reinforcing frontal boundary should sweep through Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a strong shortwave trough passes through in
the upper levels. The northwest flow regime will also transport in
some much cooler air, and expect to see lows will dip into the
middle to upper 40s over the northern half of the CWA both Tuesday
and Wednesday nights. Highs will be cooler than average in the
middle 70s as well.

Aviation
Vfr category conditions are expected at each of the terminals
throughout the TAF forecast period. A brief period of patchy fog
will lower vis to 5 miles at times at kmcb and kbtr around 12z.

Marine
A persistent east wind of 15 to 20 knots and seas of 3 to 6 feet
are expected over the open gulf waters through Saturday as a tight
pressure gradient lingers over the northern gulf of mexico. The
gradient should relax slightly Saturday night and Sunday as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. Still expect to see
southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet in
advance of this system. The low and an associated cold front
should then slide across the coastal waters Sunday night, and
a much colder and drier airmass will build in for Monday and
Tuesday. Winds should shift to a northwest direction at 15 to 20
knots over the open waters early next week as high pressure builds
in. 32

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 56 84 65 84 0 0 10 40
btr 60 85 68 85 0 10 10 60
asd 60 84 66 84 10 10 20 50
msy 68 84 72 84 10 20 30 50
gpt 63 83 69 83 10 10 10 30
pql 60 84 66 83 0 0 10 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 16 mi54 min SE 1.9 G 6 73°F 76°F1020.9 hPa
CARL1 22 mi54 min 78°F
FREL1 23 mi54 min SE 7 G 8 75°F 1019.9 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 24 mi94 min Calm G 0 66°F 1021.6 hPa (+0.7)65°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 33 mi54 min ESE 8 G 9.9 73°F 77°F1021.2 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 38 mi54 min ENE 6 G 7 71°F 73°F1021.6 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 38 mi54 min E 1.9 G 2.9 71°F 76°F1021 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1021.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA15 mi31 minESE 810.00 miFair73°F68°F84%1020.6 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA22 mi31 minESE 910.00 miA Few Clouds72°F68°F87%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N3N4NE4NE6E945NE8SE6SE7SE7CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE3N3NE3NE4NE4N4N4N5NE4NE5NE7E6E8E94CalmN6NE4NE4S5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN5N4N6N5N4N3N3N5N4N5NE6E7
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NE84CalmN5NE9NE4NE6NE3CalmNE3NE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tchefuncta River
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:58 AM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:45 AM CDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:55 PM CDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:44 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.50.50.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:08 AM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:21 AM CDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:05 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.60.60.60.50.50.50.40.40.40.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.