Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 6:33 PM   Moonset 5:06 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1009 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 22 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet.

GMZ500 1009 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 22 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure will remain across the local waters through midweek allowing for favorable marine conditions across the region. Winds will begin to transition to a more southeasterly direction as the high moves east of the region Tuesday or early Wednesday. Going into the weekend, pressure gradient will tighten again leading to the need for cautionary headlines or small craft advisories.

FXUS64 KLIX 230448 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A very dry column resides over the region this afternoon under a very dry northwesterly flow aloft. Gradually, the broad scale trough will continue to exit stage east and allow for a slightly more zonal or a progressive upper level flow to develop going into the second half of the short term period.

Surface high pressure will continue to spread into the region and over time will continue to exit stage east as well. This will start to shift the surface flow to a slightly more moist southeast/return flow. With the trough pushing east and a dry regime remaining, the only concerns will be temps and winds...and to some extent RH values from a fire weather perspective. Think fire weather is a near term (Monday) concern, but this will be limited with the winds continuing to decrease at the surface. With high pressure in control winds will be light and variable later tonight through the end of the period outside of a slight southeast transition. Finally, with heights gradually rising, a warming trend will start tomorrow afternoon. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The long/medium range starts out rather quiet with a relatively light northwest flow aloft taking shape on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge. A cold front will move southward across the Mid South and Tennessee River Valley. This front will stall as it becomes parallel to the H5 mean flow and without much convective cold pooling to force it southward (and likely held up by the ridge amplifying just a bit upstream). Regardless, the position of the front and a gradual uptick in boundary layer moisture (moisture pooling across the south) and calm overnight/early morning conditions may lead to fog potential each morning from Wednesday, Thursday, and maybe even Friday before the low level flow increases ahead of a front moving into the central Plains Friday. The parent H5 trough Friday into Saturday rides northeast from Central TX to the Great Lakes. This will again lead to the frontal boundary stalling just upstream and this is where any rainfall would likely occur. Another strong upper level impulse will begin to round the base of the large scale trough across the high/central plains next weekend. This may be just strong enough to force the residual stalled front closer to our region on Monday. This could be the focus for scattered showers and storms with the best POPs residing across SW MS Counties. Temperatures with the return flow will continue to increase gradually through the long term period. (Frye)

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions expected through the valid forecast period at all terminals. However, for the next forecast package at 12z, some consideration may need to be given to the potential for radiation fog at KMCB around sunrise Wednesday. While NBM probabilities of IFR visibilities are rather low, near 20 percent, that's quite a bit higher than the remaining terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Northeasterly flow will continue to decrease as surface high pressure continues to move into the region from the northwest. As the high moves east of the region late tomorrow or Wednesday, expect that the surface flow will transition to a more southeasterly flow. Generally favorable marine conditions are anticipated Wednesday through at least early Friday before pressure gradient tightens across the local waters, which will likely require SCA or Cautionary Headlines by late Friday or Saturday. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 44 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 48 81 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 48 78 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 56 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 52 76 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 48 78 56 82 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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