Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lacombe, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:34PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 11:40 AM CDT (16:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:58AMMoonset 5:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 956 Am Cdt Tue Apr 25 2017
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 956 Am Cdt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will shift toward the eastern gulf today as a low pressure system moves into the plains. This low will push a weak front toward the coast Wednesday night and Thursday. The front should stall as it enters the coastal waters. Another low pressure system should then move into the plains on Friday and impact the coastal waters late in the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacombe, LA
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location: 30.25, -90.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 250904
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
404 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017

Short term
Quiet weather expected today as trough moves off the east coast and
upper ridge builds over the central gulf coast. Strong subsidence
underneath high pressure will suppress most cloud cover development
outside of occasional cirrus clouds. Temperatures will begin to
moderate today as 500mb heights increase. A roughly 5 degree
increase is likely which puts highs around 80 to 85. Most of the
blended guidance was too cold, so stuck with mav/mex numbers.

Enhanced southerly flow today will bring moisture back into the
area. This will take dewpoints into the lower 60s tonight which will
limit cooling. Thus, lows should be quite a bit warmer tonight than
this morning.

Long term
The biggest impact periods of the extended forecast come in
Wednesday night and in the latter half of the weekend. Starting with
the first, a broad upper level trough exists just west of the
rockies over the pacific northwest. This trough will continue
eastward today and begin to dig south and sharpen on Wednesday as it
tracks into the central plains. Models are in good agreement that
the trough will then lift northeast towards the great lakes
Wednesday night. A frontal boundary associated with the upper trough
will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity that moves
through the cwa. Convection should be on the western doorstep of the
forecast area Thursday at 00z and exiting eastern areas around
sunrise Thursday. The typical pop coverage in similar weather
patterns is more storms along the la/ms border and minimal along the
la coast(example: the last system that just moved through). The
threat for severe weather will be in a similar with the best probs
north of i-12 and minimal threat on the coast. Model soundings show
this as well with a mid level warm nose that doesn't erode and much
weaker winds in the column at points further south than north. Ml
cape values over 2000j/kg, li's -6 to -8 combined with shear over
40 knots will be sufficient for severe thunderstorms in those
northern areas.

The second impactful event is looking be more potent than the first.

The main upper trough will be closing a low and rotating negative as
it digs well into texas and the lower mississippi valley Saturday
into Sunday. A wide swath of showers and embedded strong/severe
thunderstorms will march across the state. Surface winds look to be
strong, surging gulf moisture inland which should bring dewpoints
into the lower/mid 70s. CAPE values will once likely be over 2000
j/kg. That type of moisture and instability combined with a 50+kt
mid level jet may set the stage for maybe a few significantly strong
cells. All modes of severe weather possible although tornadoes and
wind seem to be the more likely threats. Timing is the biggest ?? A
attm as models are 6-12 hours faster than 24 hrs ago. Will likely
see flucuations until the event occurs.

Meffer

Aviation
Clear skies into the morning hours with a few terminals having some
vis restrictions. A ceiling at bkn030-040 looks to develop by late
morning and early afternoon today. Would like to see this begin to
initialize before 12z TAF issuance. If the ceiling does not begin to
develop before issuance, will opt to keep this level prevailing sct.

Prevail through tomorrow afternoon resulting inVFR conditions at
all of the terminals. Winds will begin to shift to due south and
remain through this TAF cycle.

Marine
Onshore wind will become established today then gradually increase
to 10 to 15 knots by the evening hours. Winds should further
increase Wednesday as a strong low pressure system moves into the
plains states increasing the pressure gradient over the gulf. Expect
to see a period of exercise caution and possibly small craft
advisory conditions from tonight through Thursday morning. The
front should stall over the north central gulf very close to the
coast. This should cause an onshore flow to remain over most of the
coastal waters with the exception of mainly the protected waters
which will shift to a northwest direction and quickly ease Thursday.

This quick stalling and subsequent rapid movement back to the north
will be in response to another stronger cold front that is expected
to affect the marine areas Saturday through Monday morning.

Southerly winds ahead of this front will be capable of producing
high end advisory conditions and a potential to even cause low end
gales either sustained or in gusts starting Saturday night. Once the
front passes Sunday evening, northerly winds just as strong are
expected but should have a shorter duration as winds begin to
subside Monday.

Decision support
Dss code... Green.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... None.

Decision support service (dss) code legend: green = no weather
impacts that require action blue = long fused
watch/warning/advisory in effect or high visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused watch/warning/advisory
issuances; radar support orange = high impacts - slight to moderate
risk of severe weather; nearby tropical events, hazmat or
other large episodes red = full engagement for moderate risk of
severe weather; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 83 61 84 61 / 0 0 10 70
btr 84 65 85 60 / 0 0 10 70
asd 81 62 82 64 / 0 0 0 60
msy 81 64 85 65 / 0 0 10 60
gpt 80 65 79 71 / 0 0 10 60
pql 80 60 80 67 / 0 0 10 50

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 16 mi41 min SSW 7 G 11 73°F 74°F1010.3 hPa (+0.0)
CARL1 22 mi41 min 65°F
FREL1 23 mi41 min S 7 G 9.9 72°F 1009.4 hPa (+0.0)55°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 33 mi41 min SSW 8.9 G 14 71°F 73°F1010.8 hPa (+0.3)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 38 mi41 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 71°F 73°F1010.4 hPa (+0.0)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 38 mi41 min S 4.1 G 9.9 73°F 73°F1010.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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W6
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G22

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi48 minS 810.00 miFair74°F53°F48%1010.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA15 mi48 minS 1010.00 miFair75°F57°F54%1009.9 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA22 mi48 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds73°F55°F55%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8
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--N9
G14
4NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm6S8
1 day agoN9
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NW10NW7NW9
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N7N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW34NW9
G15
NW9
2 days ago6S76SW6SW8S7S7S8S8S8SW8NW7
G17
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G18
N8N7N4N3NW5N4N4NW4NW6N7N11
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tchefuncta River
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:49 AM CDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:11 PM CDT     0.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:09 PM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:28 PM CDT     0.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.50.50.50.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:59 AM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:47 AM CDT     0.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:19 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:04 PM CDT     0.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.