Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lynn Haven, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 7:35PM Monday May 22, 2017 11:59 PM CDT (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:32AMMoonset 4:12PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 911 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms .
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday..Southwest winds around 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Seas building to 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Seas subsiding to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..West winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Friday night and Saturday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 911 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis..Modest southwest winds early this evening will increase to cautionary levels by Tuesday. A period of advisory level winds and seas is expected late Tuesday through Wednesday night with the approach and passage of a strong cold front. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lynn Haven, FL
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location: 30.26, -85.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 230120
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
920 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Near term [through tonight]
The 7 pm surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary front from va,
through central al, through coastal la, and into south tx. The
airmass ahead of this front was warm and very moist with pwat
values about 40% above climo for our region. All of the large
scale models forecast weak q-g forcing to persist overnight across
our forecast area. This, combined with favorable thermodynamics,
justifies keeping at least 20% pops. However, early Tuesday
morning the hrrr generates a more widespread area of rain across
the fl panhandle and southeast al as a perturbation associated
with an MCS (currently over la) reaches our region. This solution
is supported, at least in part, by other cams. At this time we do
not expect this rain to be particularly heavy.

Prev discussion [743 pm edt]
Short term [Tuesday through Wednesday night]
A closed upper low north of the great lakes will open up as it
lifts off to the northeast. Meanwhile, a shortwave over mn will
drop southward with a low closing off over iowa on Tuesday. This
feature will continue southward into the missouri valley on
Wednesday digging a deep trough along and east of the rockies
before beginning to move toward the east coast Wednesday night. A
few upper level impulse accompanied by deep layer moisture along
with a surface front stalling near the gulf coast will bring a
very wet pattern to our area through Wednesday. The first
shortwave will arrive tonight and linger through Tuesday bringing
with it widespread showers and thunderstorms. Along with the
potential for heavy rainfall, SPC has our entire CWA highlighted
for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Ecam guidance shows
the potential for MLCAPE as high as 1500-1800 j/kg Tuesday and
forecast soundings show bulk shear values and an 85h jet of 30-40
kts. Additionally, pw's will increase to around 2.0". The
greatest severe threat will be damaging straight line winds but a
tornado cannot be ruled out.

There should be a short break in convection late Tuesday/early
Wednesday before the next and more significant shortwave arrives
ahead of the main upper trough. Expect another round of widespread
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday with rain chances tapering off
from west to east Wednesday night as the cold front pushes
through the region. SPC has all but a portion of the SE big bend
highlighted for a marginal risk with the SE big bend in the
slight risk. Bulk shear and the low level jet are forecast to be
in the 40-50 kt range but the limiting factor may be the lack of
instability due to the earlier convective complex.

As for the heavy rain threat, we will hold off on issuing a flash
flood watch as latest QPF amounts have come down just a bit with
the higher amounts (at or just above 3") shifted to our
easternmost zones. These amounts are spread out through Wednesday
night.

Long term [Thursday through Monday]
Much drier air will begin to arrive on Thursday in the wake of the
cold front and remain in place through Saturday. Temperature and
humidity levels will be below normal for late may through Thursday
night with a gradual increase to seasonal levels by the weekend.

Rain chances will return Sunday into the first part of next week
with the approach of the next cold front.

Aviation [through 00z Wednesday]
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms near tlh will gradually
dissipate this evening andVFR conditions are expected across our
area tonight under broken mid-high level clouds. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase across our area from west
to east Tuesday morning, with periods of MVFR CIGS and visibility
likely at all terminals through the remainder of the day. Brief
ifr/lifr conditions cannot be ruled out in stronger thunderstorms,
butVFR conditions are also possible during dry periods between
showers/storms.

Marine
Modest southwest winds will increase quickly on Tuesday to
cautionary levels. A period of advisory levels winds and seas is
expected late Tuesday through Wednesday night with the approach
and passage of a strong cold front. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish through the remainder of the work week as high pressure
builds over the waters.

Fire weather
No concerns.

Hydrology
Recent rains over the last 48 hours have deposited the heaviest
amounts (3-4 inches) in the upper choctawhatchee river basin in
southeast alabama. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts have been lighter
generally 2 inches or less. Most of the guidance suggests that
rainfall over the next 36 to 48 hours should generally be in the
3-4 inch range with isolated heavier totals up to 6 inches. While
this could cause some minor flooding issues, slightly higher
amounts would be needed to cause a greater flood threat. Thus,
will not be issuing a flash flood watch on this cycle, though as
confidence increases in the placement of Tuesday's convection a
watch may be needed.

The threat for river flooding from this system remains quite low,
given that many rivers were at significantly low levels from the
ongoing drought. Only the choctawhatchee river, which has received
modest rains in the upper portion of the basin is vulnerable to
minor flooding should heavier amounts on Tuesday materialize.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 69 81 68 80 60 / 30 70 70 70 20
panama city 74 81 71 80 65 / 60 70 70 70 10
dothan 69 78 67 80 59 / 70 90 70 70 10
albany 71 78 67 79 60 / 50 80 70 70 10
valdosta 70 81 67 79 61 / 30 70 70 80 30
cross city 71 83 71 81 65 / 20 60 70 80 50
apalachicola 74 80 72 82 65 / 30 60 70 70 10

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Fournier
short term... Barry
long term... Barry
aviation... Lahr
marine... Barry
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 8 mi41 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 78°F 82°F1014 hPa
PCBF1 13 mi41 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 78°F 81°F1014 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 51 mi41 min WSW 8 G 12 78°F 82°F1013.9 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 52 mi74 min W 1 76°F 75°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL10 mi66 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1014.6 hPa
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL14 mi63 minWSW 510.00 miFair76°F71°F85%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E4E5CalmSE3S6S6S11S8S8S9S10S8S5SW5SW3CalmCalm
1 day agoSE8W9
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N9NE6SE7SE6SE16CalmE4SE5N44CalmSE4S4SE9S5SE10SW7SW3NW3N3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmE4NE4CalmE4E4NE3E6E8SE10SE13S13SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:12 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:15 AM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:06 PM CDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.70.70.80.911.11.21.31.31.31.21.10.80.60.40.20.100.10.10.20.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Bayou, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Alligator Bayou
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:59 AM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:57 PM CDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.70.70.80.911.11.21.31.31.31.210.80.50.30.20.100.10.10.20.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.