Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lynn Haven, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday June 22, 2017 9:12 AM CDT (14:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:23AMMoonset 6:19PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 408 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Today..South winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Seas subsiding to 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday..South winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters smooth to a light chop.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable winds. Seas 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming south around 5 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 408 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis..Winds and seas will gradually subside from east to west today, as tropical storm cindy moves ashore near the texas-louisiana border and weakens. However, moderate south swells will continue into Friday. A return to low winds and seas is expected by this weekend as a surface ridge develops across the marine area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lynn Haven, FL
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location: 30.26, -85.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221048
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
648 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Aviation [through 12z Friday]
A band of heavy rain is gradually drifting east across the fl
panhandle and SE alabama this morning, and could impact ecp and
dhn with brief periods of reduced visibility (MVFR ifr) before
weakening and or moving out of our area later this morning.

Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the period
at all terminals. South-southeasterly winds will increase across
our area later this morning, with a few gusts to 15-20 kts
possible from late morning through the afternoon.

Prev discussion [401 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Wednesday evening's surface analysis showed tropical storm cindy
approaching the central gulf coast, with a weak baroclinic zone
extending eastward from the storm center through panama city. This
boundary may have helped a few of the weakly-rotating convective
cells to acquire tighter low-level circulations over our western
zones, but recent trends and the rap has this feature weakening
over the next several hours, which should reduce the threat of
tornadoes.

The nwp models are in good agreement in a deep-layer ridge (and
drier mid tropospheric air) developing across our forecast area
today. Our rain chances will diminish to 20% across much of our
forecast area. There will be more Sun than the past few days so high
temperatures will reach the lower 90s.

Short term [tonight through Saturday]
A deep-layer and drier air aloft will continue across our forecast
area through early Saturday. Pops will be 30% or less, with the
greatest rain chances during the daylight hours. By late Saturday a
deep-layer trough will develop northwest of our forecast area.

Increasing moisture and q-g forcing ahead of this feature will lead
to higher pops around dothan and albany (50%) Saturday afternoon,
with 20-30% pops elsewhere. Temperatures will be near average, with
lows in the 70s and highs in the lower to mid 90s.

Long term [Saturday night through Thursday]
Rain chances will return to near climo levels for most of our region
by Sunday and into early next week with a deep layer trough in the
vicinity. The global are split as to whether or not the accompanying
surface cold front moves far enough south of our forecast area to
bring drier, sinking air (and low pops) to some or all of our
region, so we will blend the different solutions and call for
somewhat below-average pops and temperatures temperatures beyond
Monday, especially from tallahassee north and westward where there
is a greater chance of drying.

Marine
Winds and seas will gradually subside from east to west today, as
tropical storm cindy moves ashore and weakens. However, high surf
and frequent rip currents will continue into Friday. A return to low
winds and seas is expected by this weekend as a surface ridge
develops across the marine area.

Fire weather
No concerns.

Hydrology
Heavy rain remains possible this morning, mainly west of panama city
and dothan. However the threat of flooding is too low for a flood
watch. Fortunately organized heavy rain is unlikely through early
next week, so widespread river flooding flash flooding is not
anticipated.

Despite the recent rains, some of which was locally heavy on Tuesday
and Wednesday, the latest river model guidance does not have any of
our rivers going to flood stage. However, a few sites may get close
along some of the smaller rivers , mainly the shoal river at mossy
head, and bruce creek near red bay.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 90 75 91 73 92 20 10 30 10 30
panama city 86 77 87 77 87 30 10 20 10 20
dothan 87 74 91 74 90 40 10 20 10 50
albany 90 74 92 75 91 30 10 30 10 40
valdosta 92 75 93 74 94 20 10 30 10 30
cross city 92 74 91 73 91 20 30 20 10 20
apalachicola 87 79 87 78 88 10 10 20 10 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Friday evening for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf advisory until 11 am edt 10 am cdt Friday for
coastal bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for apalachee
bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee
river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river
to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
suwannee river to keaton beach out 20 nm-waters from
suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for coastal waters
from apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-waters from
apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Fournier
short term... Fournier
long term... Fournier
aviation... Lahr
marine... Fournier
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Fournier


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 8 mi49 min SSE 19 G 22 82°F 82°F1016.7 hPa
PCBF1 13 mi49 min SE 20 G 23 82°F 82°F1016.3 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 51 mi49 min S 12 G 16 81°F 79°F1017 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 52 mi88 min SE 11 82°F 80°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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SE23
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL10 mi80 minSE 17 G 2210.00 miOvercast82°F75°F82%1017 hPa
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL14 mi77 minSE 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F77°F85%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE19
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1 day agoNE4NE8NE7NE9NE9NE11NE9NE9NE10N10N12NE11NE12
G16
NE9NE9NE8NE10NE9NE9NE7NE7E7E7E9
2 days agoE5--E6--E9SE8E3E6SE4CalmNE5NE3NE5NE5NE4E4E5E4E4E5E5E3NE5NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:23 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:09 AM CDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:26 PM CDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.70.91.11.31.51.71.81.81.81.71.41.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Bayou, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Alligator Bayou
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:53 AM CDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:19 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:17 PM CDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.60.70.91.11.31.51.71.81.81.71.61.310.70.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.