Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lynn Haven, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 7:36PM Thursday May 24, 2018 6:28 PM CDT (23:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:05PMMoonset 2:51AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 409 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds in the afternoon. Protected waters a moderate chop to choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 25 knots and gusty. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 30 knots with gale force gusts. Seas 10 to 13 feet with occasional seas up to 17 feet. Protected waters very rough. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 25 to 30 knots with gale force gusts. Seas 9 to 12 feet with occasional seas up to 15 feet. Protected waters very rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..South winds around 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 409 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis.. Winds and seas will remain low through Friday. By Saturday, conditions will begin to gradually deteriorate with advisory level winds over the marine area by Saturday evening as a tropical disturbance approaches. Winds will continue to increase into Sunday and Monday with the potential for sustained winds to gale force starting Sunday afternoon. Conditions are expected to slowly improve by Monday evening after the system moves well inland.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lynn Haven, FL
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location: 30.26, -85.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 241952
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
352 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Near term [through tonight]
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed from the florida
panhandle northeastward across southwest georgia early this
afternoon. Ample deep layer moisture remains in place with pw values
near 2" across most of our area, and instability has increased this
afternoon to 2000-3000 j kg of sbcape. Due to the combination of
high instability and moisture along with forcing from outflow
boundaries and the sea breeze, showers storms are expected to expand
in coverage and drift southeastward later this afternoon through the
evening. Showers and thunderstorms should also fill in across
southeast alabama early this evening according to latest models.

Despite the high instability, severe weather is unlikely this
afternoon. Little shear or dcape will be present, resulting in
mainly pulse-type storms that don't have a high risk of severe
downbursts. However, isolated strong winds and or small hail are
possible in the stronger thunderstorms. Drier conditions will return
tonight as the airmass stabilizes after an active day of showers and
thunderstorms; however, isolated showers storms remain possible
overnight with deep layer moisture still in place along with some
remnant outflow boundaries. Overnight lows should range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s inland, with mid 70s along the gulf coast.

Short term [Friday through Saturday night]
Model guidance is in good agreement on Friday with the airmass
remaining very moist and with southerly flow, expect a pattern
similar to Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms developing
toward late morning and then being enhanced by the afternoon sea
breeze. Kept rain chances fairly uniform across the inland areas,
in the 60-70 percent range for the afternoon. Daytime highs are
expected to be in the mid to upper 80s.

By Saturday, moisture will continue increasing from the south as
a tropical disturbance moves into the southern gulf of mexico.

There's some indication in the guidance that extensive cloud cover
in advance of the disturbance may limit destabilization across
the region on Saturday afternoon and limit storm coverage. As a
result, rain chances for Saturday are a good bit lower than those
on Friday. With the anticipated cloud cover, temperatures will be
a little lower, generally in the mid 80s for highs.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]
The focus through the long term period will be on the eventual
track of the tropical disturbance now over the yucatan peninsula.

Model guidance over the last 24 to 36 hours has come into better
agreement that once the system moves into the southern gulf of
mexico that the system will gradually become better organized and
then move toward the north central gulf of mexico coast. Rain
chances will increase considerably on Sunday and through the first
part of the week as the system nears and then moves over the
interior southeast. It's possible the system takes on some sub-
tropical characteristics as the system moves near or interacts
with an upper low over the western gulf of mexico, which could
adversely impact rainfall totals. Given the uncertainty in the
track and intensity of the system, will keep the pops fairly
uniform and high Sunday through Wednesday as it is expected that
the system will move slowly once over inland areas of the
southeast. Temperatures through the period will remain below
normal with highs generally in the lower 80s.

Aviation [through 18z Friday]
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed near a line from ecp
to aby. These will move southeastward and impact tlh and vld later
in the afternoon early evening, and scattered showers storms could
develop over dhn during this time as well. Brief visibility
reductions are possible in any heavier showers or storms.VFR
conditions will likely return to all terminals tonight through
tomorrow morning.

Marine
Winds and seas will remain low through Friday. By Saturday,
conditions will begin to gradually deteriorate with advisory
level winds over the marine area by Saturday evening as a tropical
disturbance approaches. Winds will continue to increase into
Sunday and Monday with the potential for sustained winds to gale
force starting Sunday afternoon. Conditions are expected to slowly
improve by Monday evening after the system moves well inland.

Fire weather
Periods of heavy rainfall continue to be likely for the next several
days. Dispersions will be below 20 today and tomorrow afternoon.

Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Recent rains have brought area rivers above base flow with a few
locations in the smaller creeks rivers nearing action stages from
routed flows from upstream rains in west central georgia.

Over the next 48 hours, rainfall amounts should be in the 1-2 inch
range and fairly isolated and have little or no significant impact
on river levels. Isolated heavier totals could present a flash
flood threat, if occurring over an urbanized area.

Beyond 48 hours (starting Sunday), heavier rainfall amounts of 3
to 5 inches with isolated heavier amounts are possible,
particularly across the western half of the region. It is during
this time frame that the threat for flash flooding would begin to
increase along with more sustained river rises. Ensemble
streamflow guidance suggests most areas can tolerate basin average
rainfall of 4-6 inches without any moderate river flooding
occurring, but amounts greater than 7 inches would increase the
potential for moderate river flooding, especially in the smaller
basin creeks in south georgia (kinchafoonee muckalee) and in
southeast alabama (pea choctawhatchee). Positioning of heaviest
rainfall will ultimately determine any further impacts on the
larger stem rivers down into florida.

It should be noted that recent heavy rains in west central
georgia have caused increased releases down the chattahoochee
river below columbus and elevated flows are also progressing
through the flint river below carsonville. This will result in
portions of these basins reaching action stage over the next
couple of days, even without the additional rainfall.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 70 88 71 84 70 20 60 30 50 60
panama city 73 85 73 83 71 30 50 20 40 80
dothan 70 87 70 84 69 40 70 40 40 60
albany 70 88 70 86 70 60 70 50 30 50
valdosta 70 87 68 84 69 50 70 40 40 50
cross city 69 87 69 82 70 40 70 30 60 50
apalachicola 73 84 74 82 72 20 40 30 50 80

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through late tonight for coastal bay-south
walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Lahr
short term... Godsey
long term... Godsey
aviation... Lahr
marine... Godsey
fire weather... Nguyen
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 8 mi40 min SW 9.9 G 12 81°F 85°F1016.6 hPa
PCBF1 13 mi40 min SSW 7 G 9.9 81°F 83°F1016.7 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 51 mi40 min WSW 4.1 G 8 82°F 82°F1016.5 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 52 mi103 min SSW 7 84°F 65°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL10 mi35 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F72°F70%1016.9 hPa
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL14 mi32 minSSW 910.00 miFair82°F71°F70%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmS4CalmCalmS6SW4NE9S8S9S10S9
1 day agoS9S5SE6S3SE3SE4CalmCalmE4E3NE4E3CalmE3E33SW8SW7S11S9S11S10S10S9
2 days agoSE6SE3S3CalmE3CalmE5E3E5E4N4S9NE3E3NE34SE6SE8S11S12S11S9S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:01 AM CDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM CDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 PM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM CDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.40.40.50.60.70.80.90.90.90.90.90.80.70.70.60.60.60.70.70.70.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Bayou, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Alligator Bayou
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:52 AM CDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM CDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:05 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:45 PM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:15 PM CDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.40.40.50.60.70.80.90.90.90.90.80.80.70.70.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.