Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Slidell, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:52PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 7:29 PM CDT (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:22PMMoonset 2:31AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 333 Pm Cdt Wed May 23 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast early in the afternoon, then becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 333 Pm Cdt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis..A weak trough of low pressure will remain over the coastal waters well into next week. A stronger low could move into the southeast gulf by Friday. This low may begin to affect the north central and northeast gulf region this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Slidell, LA
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location: 30.27, -89.79     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 232145
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
445 pm cdt Wed may 23 2018

Discussion Seabreeze over the ms coast started to kick in
just before noon and once that activity developed outflow the storms
quickly worked west along the lakebreeze from lake p. Scattered
storms fired up early this afternoon across southwest ms and a few
additional showers developed along the larger outflow boundary that
surged northwest from the seabreeze activity. Temperatures have had
a pretty good spread with some mid 80s and a few lower 90s.

Again a lot of attention on the forecast this holiday weekend with
our system we are watching in the far western caribbean. Models
continue to struggle with the overall evolution of this system but
we will discuss that shortly.

Tonight and now through Friday night we will see more of a summer
type pattern with respect to convection. Both Thursday and Friday
storms will be driven by diurnal fluctuations with the seabreeze
activity likely beginning in the late morning hours and then slowly
working north and northwest as storms become dictated by outflow.

Convection should begin to wane each evening as we lose the daytime
heating with a minimum of activity from late evening through the
early morning hrs before coastal convection tries to begin to fire
around 10z each morning.

Friday night and Saturday should begin to see a slow transition as
the mid level troughing becomes more pronounced over the gulf. This
along with an increase in moisture will likely continue to lead to
scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
once we begin to heat up.

Now back to the troughing the the gulf and what possibly develops
coming out of the western caribbean. The mid level trough will
deepen and eventually close off. This will be in response to the
digging subtropical jet over the gulf as the previous forecaster
mentioned. It still appears that the subtropical jet could be the
sticking point as the euro is sharper with jet and eventually
closing the trough off early Saturday over the south-central gulf.

The GFS isn't quite as sharp and doesn't close off the low until
late Saturday night and about 400 miles to the northeast. Obviously
where this occurs will really have a hand in where the sfc low will
develop and move. The GFS is the east solution developing convection
in the eastern gulf and driving a sfc low towards the fl peninsula.

One concern with this is that the GFS maybe suffering from some
feedback issues which is why the sfc low is so far east. The euro is
the western solution and maybe trying to initially develop a sfc low
a little too quickly and right under the closed low. Right now am
leaning more towards the euro but using somewhat of a blend and
trying to really show the greatest chance for rain and possibly
pretty heavy rain over coastal ms.

The other concern is a track more towards the north-central gulf
would likely lead to the system getting trapped under the ridge to
the north and blocked by a ridge to the east. A solution towards the
euro does this and would really increase the impacts especially from
a rain standpoint as it is the slower solution and farther west with
the sfc low sitting off the the sela coast through midday Tuesday.

This could easily lead to a few rainfall totals in the double digits
over coastal ms and possibly into sela. Not only would rain be a
concern but the persistent moderate to strong onshore flow would
also lead to some coastal flooding issues. If the system is farther
east and closer to the GFS then look for things to be less impactful
with more of the same as convection will be much like Thursday and
Friday, mostly driven diurnally.

One thing to note that is if anything does eventually develop it
will be quite slow and not really expecting anything much more than
a low end tropical subtropical storm. There is quite a bit of dry
air in the western gulf and still quite a bit of shear. But that is
beside the point because the main focus is on rain anyway. Cab

Marine Winds will likely remain on the quiet end another
day now as things have slowed up a bit. Winds should start to
respond Friday in response to the western caribbean system finally
moving towards the gulf. Winds will still be on the lighter side
Thursday probably still under 12 kts but by Friday winds could
increase to the 15-20 kt range and will begin to come out of the
east. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with the final evolution of
the tropical system we are watching. Models range from near
barataria bay to the fl peninsula.

Previous discussion talking about this is still applicable and has
been appended. Cab
"needless to say, wind wave forecasts beyond midday Friday can be
considered to have lower confidence than usual. We seem to blend
fairly well with our neighboring offices, at least as much as
possible in this situation. Probably will need some sort of exercise
caution or small craft advisory headline during the back half of the
weekend. Certainly potential for at least some swell to increase
waveheights as early as late Friday or Friday night. Stay tuned. 35"

Aviation Convection across the forecast area has really
diminished thanks to the outflow boundary that moved through the
region. There are still a few showers near kgpt, but other than
that the area looks fairly clear. Expect MVFR toVFR conditions to
prevail through the overnight hours. There could be some early
morning patchy fog that should quick dissipate after sunrise.

ExpectVFR conditions and afternoon showers to prevail once again
for Wednesday. 13 mh

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 68 88 68 87 40 60 40 50
btr 70 89 70 88 30 50 30 50
asd 69 89 70 88 20 60 30 60
msy 73 87 74 88 20 50 30 50
gpt 73 88 71 87 30 50 30 60
pql 69 88 69 87 30 50 40 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

Cab


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 24 mi41 min ESE 1.9 G 6 88°F 86°F1016.1 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 25 mi41 min SSE 6 G 8.9 84°F 85°F1016.2 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 28 mi41 min SE 9.9 G 12 84°F 91°F1016.5 hPa
CARL1 30 mi41 min 77°F
FREL1 35 mi41 min E 6 G 7 86°F 1015.2 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 47 mi41 min SE 5.1 G 8 87°F 92°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA6 mi36 minSSE 510.00 miFair86°F68°F55%1016.2 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS19 mi36 minSSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F69°F62%1016.3 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA20 mi36 minSE 610.00 miFair86°F71°F61%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmE4N6CalmSE15
G21
NE5E63SE3S5S5
1 day agoSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmNW5334NW6S5S9S7S7S5S6
2 days agoSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmN3N3Calm3E7E10E7E8E8SE5E7SE6S4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
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Wed -- 12:38 AM CDT     0.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:47 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:22 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:37 PM CDT     0.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.50.50.40.40.40.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.30.30.30.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pearlington, Pearl River, Mississippi
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Pearlington
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:47 AM CDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:22 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:16 PM CDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.80.60.50.40.30.30.30.30.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.90.90.90.80.80.80.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.