Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Slidell, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday March 30, 2017 1:44 AM CDT (06:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:51AMMoonset 10:18PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Mississippi Sound-lake Borgne- 1025 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 6 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1025 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis..A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact the waters on Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back over the area by Friday. The high should be east of the area by Saturday. Another low pressure system should then impact the coastal waters on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Slidell, LA
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location: 30.27, -89.79     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 300225
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
925 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017

Severe thunderstorms possible later tonight into Thursday...

Update
Updated forecast earlier this evening for tornado watch #101 and
to increase the pop tonight, mainly for areas in the i-55 corridor
and a bit east to account for a slightly faster eastward
progression of the current leading edge of thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms that have been producing hail up to around 1 inch at
times (with larger sizes indicated by radar hail algorithms) have
been moving across south central louisiana and some of these
storms may prompt severe thunderstorm warnings after 9:30 pm
starting in iberville parish if current intensity is maintained.

Special note about web page problems... Due to a national server
issue, some of the graphical information on the top of the
national weather service new orleans/baton rouge page /
weather.Gov/lix may not be current. Recent postings will still be
available on our facebook and twitter pages. 22/td

Prev discussion /issued 402 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017/
discussion... Difficult forecast shaping up. The risk for severe
storms is impressive and tonight could even be more of a concern
than tomorrow. That said a few things could actually help keep the
risk mostly out of the area tomorrow. As for today it was a warm and
generally quiet day for our region but a few severe storms have
developed over southeastern tx and southwestern la and south into
the northwestern gulf. This activity could move into our area during
the overnight hours.

Tonight and tomorrow should be active. As has been mentioned the
last few days this activity will be driven by a strong upper low
over the southern plains and moving into the mid ms valley by
tomorrow evening. We are currently outlooked with an enhanced risk
in the extreme northwest with a slight risk almost all the way to i
55 across sela for tonight. Tomorrow the entire area is under a
slight risk.

The first piece of concern will be overnight tonight and as
mentioned earlier may actually be the greatest risk for severe
weather. There will actually be quite a bit of ingredients in place
tonight across the northwestern portions of the outlook area and the
models have struggled to catch up with the environment and speed of
convection. First as the main trough axis slowly swings through
tx forcing will increase but in addition a lead vort MAX will
swing through overnight. Mid lvl winds will increase with h5 winds
increasing to 50 kts. The best ll convergence will set up late
this evening and through the overnight hours across the northwest.

In addition the ll wind field will respond to the increasing
forcing and h85 winds could approach 40 kts. An unstable
environment will be in place with impressive mid level lapse rates
still anticipated and showalters still expected around -4 to -5
and MLCAPE around 1000j/kg. The difluent feature aloft that we
have been advertising will likely be more over the region tonight
now and displaced to the south over the gulf tomorrow. The
combination of shear, instability, and forcing looks like it could
be in place during the overnight hours and this would suggest a
decent risk of severe storms. Ongoing activity could continue
through the night and possibly expand as we feel the impact of the
increasing lift. All modes of severe weather are possible but of
somewhat greater concern is the model soundings have been showing
a rather curved hodograph overnight. This is favorable for
tornadoes especially if the storms are more cellular in nature and
not necessarily a line.

Tomorrow we are under a slight risk but there are numerous
questions. First it seems like models have trended towards the
difluent area aloft lining up in the gulf and this would favor
convection, possibly an mcs, developing over the gulf quickly
tomorrow morning and this would effectively shut us down. If the mcs
doesn't develop then we could see strong to severe storms tomorrow
with large hail being the greatest concern. The other possibility is
if the MCS develops and pushes east really quick. If this occurs
it would allow the region to recover and destabilize. Then as the
cold front and the main trough push in we could see thunderstorms
begin to fire right along the front. These storms would mainly
pose a hail risk. Storms should quickly come to an end early
tomorrow evening with much drier air moving in.

One other thing to mention, there will be a lot of moisture
available. With the rather impressive upper level jet in place, an
increasing ll jet and h85 theta E ridge nosing into the region,
storms will be very efficient and could quickly drop 1-2 inches of
rain in less than half an hour. This could lead to isolated areas
of flash flooding if storms hit the wrong areas. /cab/
fri through Sat will be quiet as ridging takes place. Conditions
begin to go downhill once again sun. Still some uncertainty
regarding timing but another very potent system will makes its way
through the southern plains Sun and into the lower ms valley
sometime mon/early tue. This will bring more showers and
thunderstorms with severe weather possible but also very heavy rain
and could drop over 5 inches across portions of the region.

Aviation... Main concern will be timing out convective arrival at
the terminals with approaching frontal qlcs feature moving out of se
texas. GFS model timing has it at kbtr around 09z, then progressing
through kmcb/khdc around 10z, khum/kmsy 11z, knew/kasd around 12z,
kgpt 1330z. Otherwise, mostlyVFR or high end MVFR ceilings through
00z with a lowering to MVFR ceilings prior to qlcs arrival, then
maintaining MVFR conditions through end of the valid TAF period as
rain tapers from west to east through 18z thu. 24/rr
marine... Small craft exercise caution headlines have been extended.

Mariners will also have to concern themselves with the threat of a
line of thunderstorms moving through the coastal waters late tonight
and Thursday. Another round of strengthening winds as well as
thunderstorms may require headlines late in the weekend. 35
decision support...

dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Monitoring severe weather potential on Thursday
decision support service (dss) code legend:
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk of severe weather;
nearby tropical events, hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 66 78 54 80 / 60 60 20 0
btr 67 79 54 83 / 60 60 10 0
asd 68 76 58 80 / 30 70 30 0
msy 69 78 60 81 / 30 70 30 0
gpt 70 75 60 78 / 10 70 50 0
pql 67 77 58 78 / 10 70 60 0

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 11 mi54 min S 3.9 G 7.8 73°F 1013.3 hPa (-0.4)69°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 24 mi44 min SSE 6 G 11 74°F 73°F1012 hPa (-0.6)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 25 mi44 min S 17 G 23 74°F 76°F1012.3 hPa (-0.8)
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 28 mi44 min SSE 15 G 19 73°F 77°F1012.3 hPa (-1.3)
CARL1 30 mi44 min 58°F
FREL1 35 mi44 min SSE 12 G 16 74°F 1010.8 hPa (-0.8)70°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 47 mi44 min SSE 6 G 11 73°F 77°F1012 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA6 mi51 minS 1010.00 miOvercast74°F69°F85%1012.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA20 mi51 minSSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE7SE4SE4SE6SE9
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1 day agoS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW73S8SW4S6S11S10S13S10S6SE6S6SE7S5SE5SE4
2 days agoS8S9S6S5SE3SE5SE4S9
G17
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S10S8S8S7S5S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM CDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:18 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.20.20.10.1000.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pearlington, Pearl River, Mississippi
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Pearlington
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:47 AM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:32 PM CDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.10.20.20.30.40.50.50.60.60.70.80.80.911110.90.70.60.40.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.