Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 3:56 PM   Moonset 4:21 AM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1011 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Overnight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning with visibility 1 nm or less. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Saturday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.Sunday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1011 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a persistent south to southeast wind of around 10 knots will remain in place through Saturday. A weak cold front will slip through the waters Sunday morning, and winds will shift to northerly which will remain into Monday as high pressure moves in and exits east. There could be a small window of exercise caution conditions behind this boundary.

FXUS64 KLIX 190455 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1155 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A fairly broad upper level trough pushing south out of Canada will continue to expand across the High Plains to upper Mississippi River Valley the rest of this afternoon and evening. A cold front associated with this trough is moving southeast through OK, TX, and AR. Southerly flow across the region has been slowly increasing moisture levels throughout the column with highest PW's pooling ahead of the boundary in east Texas and northern/central LA. Closer to the CWA, PW's are around 1.5". A weak shortwave sliding across the Lower Mississippi Valley combined with modest low and upper level moisture is just enough to promote scattered light showers/sprinkles. CAMs seem to pick up on this much better than the global models. Therefore, have added them to the afternoon forecast.
Not much in the way of QPF expected, so minimal impacts expected.
Showers should dissipated this evening and overnight with loss of daytime heating. Clouds will hang around tonight and areas of mostly light fog will be possible.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The above mentioned upper trough will continue east across the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. The upper low aloft will still be fairly flat/zonal with possibly weak ridging in place. That'll still promote slightly more moderating temps. Could see an isolated location or 2 reach 90 degrees on Friday. That'll be within the realm of record highs for the local area.

As we go through the weekend, models show a shortwave on the backside of the northern trough moving through the region. This is what'll be needed to drive a cold front through the CWA on Sunday.
Ample moisture in place with lift from the front will be a good setup for increasing showers and thunderstorms. Latest forecast depicts this with rain chances increasing to near 80% and rainfall totals around an inch. This cold front won't be particularly strong, so only looking at a day of below normal temps with moderating conditions quickly returning as well as above normal temps Tuesday onward.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Most terminals are in the MVFR to IFR range through the rest of the night into the morning hours due to low ceilings and possibly due to some light patchy fog. Conditions will then improve back to VFR during the day. -BL



MARINE
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A surface high pressure centered east of the local coastal waters will remain generally in that position through the rest of this week and starting this weekend. That'll keep onshore flow in place, but weaker pressure gradient should limit wind speeds and sea/wave heights. Current global model runs indicate that a cold front will move through the coast waters Sunday afternoon. Cold air advection won't be particularly strong with this boundary and thus likely only looking at about 12 to 18 hours of Exercise Caution conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 64 85 65 80 / 0 10 0 40 BTR 69 89 69 86 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 68 87 67 85 / 0 0 0 20 MSY 70 87 69 84 / 0 10 0 10 GPT 68 83 67 82 / 0 10 0 20 PQL 66 86 65 84 / 0 0 0 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Long Point
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Fri -- 04:20 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:18 PM CDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

Paris Road Bridge
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Fri -- 12:30 AM CDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:21 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:24 AM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:56 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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