Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonville Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:27PM Monday December 10, 2018 8:30 AM EST (13:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:51AMMoonset 8:28PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 250 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
.small craft exercise caution...
Today..West northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds increasing to 10 seconds in the afternoon. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Inland waters smooth.
Wednesday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters smooth.
Thursday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 250 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis.. An area of low pressure will remain nearly stationary east of the carolines through tonight, then move further to the northeast Tuesday, as high pressure builds to the west. The high will build overhead on Wednesday, then to the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. A low pressure system will track east toward the region late in the week, and affect the region Thursday night into Saturday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 08, 2018 at 1200 utc... 60 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 68 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 83 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 100903
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
403 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Near term through tonight ...

low to remain nearly stationary off the carolinas this period.

Weak troughs will continue to pivot around this low and across
forecast area through tonight. One trough is expected to exit
this morning, which could provide a few light showers drizzle,
while another is expected overnight tonight. While the potential
for a few sprinkles can not be ruled out tonight, the chance is
too low for mention at this time. In general skies are expected
to remain cloudy.

Cold advection will keep temperatures well below normal. With the
exception of areas south of jacksonville, much of the region
will have highs only in the 40s today.

Short term Tuesday-Thursday ...

partly to mostly cloudy skies expected early Tuesday as potent
shortwave trough pushes southeast over the region. Will maintain
silent pops for now at 10 percent measurable precipitation but
would not be surprised to see some brief patches rain over
northeast fl in the early morning. Should see clearing more Sun in
the aftn as the trough axis pushes away from the area and
subsidence takes hold. Sfc high pressure will still remain well
west of the area over the SRN ms valley. Highs only in the 50s
most area with a few locations around 60 as weak cool advection
persists.

Tue night, a much colder night with winds becoming light and
expect a light freeze for the inland areas. Min temps generally
progged at 31-32 degrees, so not definitive criteria for a freeze
warning at this time. Some thin high clouds expected to move in
after 06z but probably have little to no affect on min temps since
temps will fall steadily through the late evening and after
midnight. Very light to calm winds develop after 06z so good
chance of areas of frost to develop and is mentioned in the
forecast, with more patchy frost near the coast where temps will
stay up to around the mid 30s with a light offshore drainage
wind.

Wed and thu, sfc high pressure will move northeast during this
period beginning a gradual warming trend. A gradual increase in
low and upper level moisture clouds begins Wed and then especially
by Thursday as a coastal trough develops, and veered flow ahead
of the next storm system approaches the southeast u.S. A warm
front may begin lifting up through the area Thursday-Thursday
night. A few showers may near the coast on Thursday with a chance
of showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible Thursday night
as increased lift and weak instabilty develop.

Long term Friday-Monday ...

an anomalously strong mid to upper level trough with closed 500
mb low moves into the SRN u.S., with both GFS and ECMWF showing
abundant moisture available for a widespread rain event early this
period. Forecast uncertainty still at least elevated given timing
and location differences with the upper level support. Based on
00z GFS ensemble mean, an occluded sfc low expected near WRN tn,
with trailing front sse into the east central gulf of mexico 12z
Friday. Model forecasts show that although winds will be sufficient
for good lift, instability is lacking a bit with SBCAPE 500 j kg
or less. Nonetheless, could be a squall line accompanying this
system on Friday and perhaps into Friday night, given timing
uncertainty in model fields, with the ECMWF slower to push the
front through by early Saturday morning. Both models have the
front east of the area by late Saturday morning. Wrap around
clouds and cooler on Saturday with a chance of a few showers as
post-frontal trough pushes through the area. Otherwise, for Sunday
and Monday, clearing and seasonably cool temperatures expected.

Aviation 06z TAF period ...

restrictions will continue through this period due to stratus.

Drizzle or light rain will be possible this morning.

Marine
An area of low pressure will remain nearly stationary east of
the carolinas through tonight, then move further to the
northeast Tuesday, as high pressure builds to the west. The high
will build overhead on Wednesday, then to the northeast
Wednesday night into Thursday. A low pressure system will track
east toward the region late in the week, and affect the region
Thursday night into Saturday.

Rip currents: SE ga low risk today moderate risk through Tuesday.

Ne fl moderate rik through Tuesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 46 39 56 32 0 10 10 0
ssi 48 41 55 37 10 10 10 0
jax 49 41 57 34 0 10 10 0
sgj 52 43 56 39 10 10 10 0
gnv 53 40 57 33 0 10 10 0
ocf 55 39 59 35 0 10 10 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for waters from
altamaha sound ga to fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl from 20 to
60 nm-waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl from 20
to 60 nm.

23 shashy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTJF1 8 mi36 min 45°F 41°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 8 mi36 min NW 11 G 15 45°F 62°F1017.8 hPa
BLIF1 11 mi36 min WNW 12 G 15 46°F 1018.7 hPa46°F
DMSF1 12 mi36 min 62°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 27 mi36 min WNW 12 G 18 45°F 59°F1018.6 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 29 mi30 min 61°F3 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 30 mi30 min NW 8 G 12 47°F 62°F1017.8 hPa (+2.6)
RCYF1 35 mi36 min 61°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 44 mi105 min WNW 4.1 48°F 1018 hPa47°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL8 mi38 minNW 1110.00 miOvercast46°F42°F86%1017.5 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL9 mi37 minNW 1110.00 miOvercast45°F41°F86%1017.5 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL17 mi37 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast46°F39°F79%1017.5 hPa
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL22 mi34 minNW 77.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1017.9 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL22 mi34 minNW 610.00 miOvercast45°F39°F80%1017.6 hPa
Fernandina Beach Municipal Airport, FL23 mi55 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast44°F40°F87%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from NRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S10S10W6SW5W9W8SW10W9W10W6W3NE6NW7N8NW8
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1 day agoNE10N11NE9N9N12N10N11NE9N10N10N9N14N11
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NE10N7NE86NE7NE5NE5----S14
G22
2 days agoN5N7NE7NE7NE9NE6NE8N8NE11NE10NE10NE9NE9NE8NE6NE6N4N4N9NE12N8N9N9N9

Tide / Current Tables for Jacksonville Beach, Florida
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Jacksonville Beach
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Mon -- 03:29 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EST     5.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:14 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:29 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:02 PM EST     4.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.11.90.90.30.41.22.33.54.65.35.65.24.33.11.910.50.71.52.63.74.54.84.5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
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Mon -- 02:20 AM EST     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM EST     2.24 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:21 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:01 PM EST     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:28 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:28 PM EST     1.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-1.4-1.9-1.9-1.6-1-0.20.91.92.221.40.4-0.8-1.7-2-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.20.81.51.51.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.