Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:28PM Thursday August 17, 2017 8:13 PM CDT (01:13 UTC) Moonrise 1:56AMMoonset 4:01PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 325 Pm Cdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Winds light becoming southwest 3 to 8 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 325 Pm Cdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure over the northern gulf will weaken as a weak front approaches this weekend. This will maintain the generally light west to southwest wind flow through Saturday. High pressure rebuilds again next week with winds becoming east to southeast. Little change in seas is expected through the period. Winds and seas will be locally higher near scattered showers and Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 172349 cca
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service mobile al
649 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance...VFR conditions are expected to remain dominant
across the region through the next 24 hours. There is very little
coverage of convection over the region early this evening, with
only an isolated shra noted near kmob at 17 2330z. Expect clearing
skies this evening with light southwest to west winds. A brief
period of patchy MVFR fog will be possible overnight into early
Friday morning over interior portions of the area. Similar
conditions continue into Friday, except for perhaps a little
better coverage of shra tsra developing Friday afternoon. 21

Prev discussion issued 349 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017
near term now through Friday ... Upper ridging building over
the area today has resulted in a much lower coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Any lingering isolated showers and
storms will quickly fade this evening. Overnight lows will continue
to be muggy with temps in the mid 70s inland to near 80 along the
coast. The upper ridge breaks down on Friday as an upper trough
moves east and sends a weak front toward the area. The combination
of the weakening upper ridge, approaching boundary and increased
deep layer moisture will lead to an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the day on Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning will be the main threats. The stronger storms may
produce gusty winds. Outside of the showers and storms, hot and
muggy continue with highs in the low 90s. Heat index values will
again climb into the 100-106 range. 13
short term Friday night through Sunday night ... Upper level ridging
across the northern gulf coast will continue to slide west and
depart the area early in the short term. Meanwhile, an upper level
trough swings across the eastern half of the CONUS and an
inverted trough meanders into the central gulf from the east over
the weekend. This pattern will continue to allow the increasing
low level moisture to settle in across the southern half of the
area. Precipitable water values will hover around 2 inches across
the southern portion of the area with slightly lower values across
the interior counties.

In addition to the moisture, there will be modest instability for
storms to tap into both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Any
strong storms that develop in this environment will be capable of
producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and torrential
downpours. The best coverage of showers and storms will remain
across the southern half of the area through the weekend,
especially Saturday afternoon. Likely pops were maintained across
the coastal counties on Saturday afternoon with chance pops across
inland locations.

Toasty afternoon temperatures anticipated this weekend with highs
in the mid to low 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 along the
immediate coastline. Heat indices of 102-106 can be expected both
Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Overnight temperatures will range
from the upper 70s along the coast to the mid 70s further inland.

07 mb
long term Monday through Thursday ... The inverted trough over
the gulf continues to drift west and dampen out as upper level
ridging builds back into the region early in the long term. This
pattern will allow the return of more diurnal storm coverage,
although chance pops are maintained each afternoon as precipitable
water values remain around 2 inches. Any strong storms that
develop next week will be capable of producing frequent lightning,
gusty winds, and torrential downpours.

The temperature forecast in the long term continues to sound like
a broken record each day - hot and muggy. High temperatures will
top out in mid to low 90s inland with upper 80s to near 90 along
the immediate coastline each afternoon. The resulting heat index
will be in the 102-105 degree range through the foreseeable
future. Overnight temperatures will range from the upper 70s along
the coast to the mid 70s further inland. 07 mb
marine... A ridge of high pressure over the northern gulf will
weaken as a weak front approaches this weekend. This will maintain
the generally light west to southwest wind flow through Saturday.

High pressure rebuilds again next week with winds becoming east to
southeast. Little change in seas is expected through the period.

Winds and seas will be locally higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms. 13

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi43 min 88°F 89°F1016.6 hPa
PPTA1 23 mi43 min WSW 6 87°F 1016.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi83 min W 9.7 G 9.7 87°F 88°F1 ft1016.2 hPa (-0.8)78°F
WBYA1 38 mi43 min 89°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi88 min 88°F 79°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 48 mi73 min SW 14 88°F 1016.3 hPa (-1.0)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi43 min W 11 G 12 87°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi17 minWSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds84°F77°F80%1016.6 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi20 minW 910.00 miFair89°F73°F61%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3SW3CalmCalmW3CalmW3NW3CalmN4CalmCalmNW3CalmNW4CalmSW11SW9SW15SW15SW11
G15
SW11W4W3
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmS5SW6SW9SW10NE13N3S5S6W4SW53SW3
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3SW3NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SW86
G20
N63SW9SW8SW9W4SW5W3

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM CDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:01 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:29 PM CDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.91.11.21.41.61.81.91.91.91.81.61.41.10.90.60.40.20-0-000.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:59 AM CDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:02 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:08 PM CDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.811.21.31.51.61.71.71.71.61.41.210.70.50.30.1-0-0-00.10.20.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.