Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:13PM Thursday October 19, 2017 4:46 PM CDT (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:37AMMoonset 6:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 300 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop.
Friday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. A moderate chop becoming a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 300 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis..A strong surface ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch from the mid atlantic region to the southeastern state and into the north central gulf of mexico through Saturday night, with a moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east wind flow persisting through Saturday night. Flow will then become more southeasterly on Sunday, then shift from southwest to northwest Monday through Tuesday as a cold front moves east across the marine area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 192034
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
334 pm cdt Thu oct 19 2017

Near term now through Friday Other than a gradual slight
increase in boundary layer moisture, a very dry airmass remains in
place over the region today and model soundings indicate
essentially no change through Friday. So overall, a persistence
forecast is the way to go for the near term period. The light to
occasionally moderate northeast to east surface wind flow will
persist tonight and Friday, as surface high pressure continues to
ridge into the forecast area from the north and east. This surface
pattern has helped dewpoints rebound into the lower 60s in many
locations over the southern portion of the forecast area, although
they remain in the middle 50s over much of the northern interior
counties. With the slightly increased low level moisture, just as
was the case this morning, expect some patchy light fog and low
cloud development for a brief time late tonight, mainly over the
interior. Otherwise clear to mostly clear skies are expected
through the period. Aloft, upper ridge axis will migrate east
across our forecast area tonight, and then be to the east of the
forecast area by early Friday afternoon. As this occurs, a deeper
return flow off the gulf will gradually develop by late Friday,
but this will primarily influence the short and long term forecast
periods, and not have any appreciable effect on near term period.

Zero rain chance in the near term, so primarily just a
temperature forecast. Lows tonight generally ranging from the
lower 50s inland to the upper 50s and lower 60s near the coast. A
few normally cooler locations over far northern interior portions
of the forecast area could briefly dip into the upper 40s toward
daybreak Friday. High temps on Friday climbing into the lower 80s
across the entire region. 12 ds

Short term Friday night through Sunday night To begin the
short term, deep layer ridge is progged to be positioned over the
southeast, while lower geo-potential heights move into the plains.

The ridge makes steady eastward progress off the southeast us
coast by Sunday while plains high level trof begins to sharpen as
it approaches the lower ms river valley by Sunday night. With the
sharpening and steady eastward progression of the long-wave trof,
attendant surface cold front moves eastward into the deep south
Sunday night. Deep layer moisture begins to slowly modify over
the course of the weekend, becoming highest on Sunday with pwat's
lifting to at or above 1.8 inches as best dynamics begin to
approach from the west. With that also comes a marked increase in
chances of showers and storms on Sunday, becoming likely over the
western zones Sunday afternoon and likely area-wide Sunday night.

The potential of strong storms exists mainly Sunday and Sunday
night with the eastward passage of the larger scale ascent and
some increase in low level winds. As far as severe weather
potential, despite modest daytime instability, an assessment of
h85 low level south to southwest wind fields generally less than
30 kts per latest global spectral models and ensembles would
suggest that the threat of severe weather is low at this time.

This may change with the onset of new data on subsequent shifts.

Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday in the lower half of the 80s.

Overnight lows from 56 to 61 interior Friday night become more
mild Saturday and Sunday nights ranging from the mid upper 60s
interior. 68 to 73 coast. 10

Long term Monday through Thursday A series of cold fronts
move across the central gulf coast next week. As southern stream
mid level system ejects eastward over the deep south on Monday, the
first front makes passage late Monday morning. Chances of showers
remain high along with a few embedded storms. Rain chances lower
Monday night. A more pronounced deep layer trof digs southward
into the deep south late Tuesday bringing a reinforcing, dry,
secondary cold frontal passage through the area. It is this
boundary that brings much lower deep layer thicknesses and cold
air advective processes in its wake Wednesday morning where lows
look to dip into the mid 40s over the interior and mid 50s coast.

Latest gridded high temperatures for Wednesday look to come in
some 5 to 10 degrees below climatology in the mid 60s interior to
near 70 coast. Wednesday night lows could lower into the 40s all
the way down to i-10, while beach areas closer to 50. Highs on
Thursday 67 to 71 area-wide. 10

Marine A strong surface ridge of high pressure will continue to
stretch from the mid atlantic region to the southeastern states
and into the north central gulf of mexico through Saturday night,
with a moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east wind flow
persisting through Saturday night. Flow will then become more
southeasterly on Sunday, then shift from southwest to northwest
Monday through Tuesday as a cold front moves east across the
marine area. Exercise caution winds and seas (15 to 20 knots and
up to 6 feet) expected through most of the period, but will have
to monitor trends for possible small craft advisory conditions.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by
Saturday and Sunday, becoming more numerous Sunday night into
Monday with the passage of the aforementioned front, before ending
with the passage of the front late Monday into Tuesday. 12 ds

Preliminary point temps pops
Mobile 59 83 65 83 0 0 10 20
pensacola 63 82 68 81 0 0 10 10
destin 65 83 69 82 0 0 10 10
evergreen 53 82 59 84 0 0 0 10
waynesboro 52 81 59 82 0 0 0 10
camden 51 81 59 83 0 0 0 10
crestview 56 83 60 84 0 0 0 10

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi46 min 81°F 75°F1020.6 hPa (-1.9)
PPTA1 23 mi46 min 80°F 1020 hPa (-2.7)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi56 min ENE 9.7 G 14 77°F 80°F4 ft1020.1 hPa (-1.8)63°F
WBYA1 38 mi46 min 74°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 38 mi76 min Calm
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi61 min 81°F 1020 hPa60°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 48 mi76 min N 8.9 77°F 1020.3 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi46 min NNE 5.1 G 6 77°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi50 minN 910.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F57°F43%1020.3 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi53 minVar 510.00 miFair83°F57°F41%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE3CalmN3N5N3N4N5NE7N5NE6NE6N5N4N7NE7NE9NE10E11NE12E11E10NE10N9
1 day agoNE8NE8N6N7N6NE7NE9NE6E10NE10NE9NE10NE10NE8NE8NE9NE8E9E85E7E5E5NE4
2 days agoN9
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N10N9N9N10N11N10N7N12N11N8N8N7NE10NE11
G19
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NE12E10E10E10NE8NE8N9

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:37 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:24 AM CDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:57 PM CDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.31.31.110.80.70.60.60.60.60.70.80.90.91111.11.11.21.31.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM CDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:49 PM CDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.110.90.70.60.50.50.50.60.70.70.80.80.90.90.911.11.11.21.31.41.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.