Sunday, December10, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 4:49PM Sunday December 10, 2017 6:20 PM CST (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 12:32AMMoonset 1:25PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 333 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2017
Tonight..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Waves less than 1 foot.
Monday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 333 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2017
Synopsis..A light to moderate west to northwest flow will prevail over the marine area through Monday afternoon as a ridge of high pressure builds over the gulf of mexico. Moderate to occasionally strong westerly to northwesterly flow will develop Monday night into Tuesday night ahead of and following the passage of the next cold front. Winds gradually subside Wednesday, but will increase again late this week as another front approaches the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 102325 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
525 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. 13

Prev discussion issued 344 pm cst Sun dec 10 2017
near term now through Monday ... The mean longwave trough over the
eastern CONUS will become reinforced late tonight into Monday. The
dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist across the central
gulf coast region on the base southwestern periphery of this feature
through the near term. Mainly clear skies and dry weather can be
expected through Monday afternoon. A surface ridge of high pressure
will nose eastward across the gulf of mexico and florida peninsula
through Monday afternoon, promoting a light west to southwest flow
across our region. Temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight, though
a light freeze is still anticipated across interior southeast
mississippi and southwest alabama. Plenty of sunshine and light
southwesterly surface flow will contribute to a continued warming
trend Monday afternoon. Highs are expected to reach into the lower
to mid 60s. 21
short term Monday night through Wednesday night ... The short
term is pretty quiet, precip and temp-wise. An upper trough
remains entrenched over the eastern CONUS through the period, with
pieces of energy rotating through. Monday night into Tuesday, a
surface ridge that has built east over the northern gulf continues
to bring dry, seasonable flow to the lower mississippi river
valley and southeast. A strong lobe of energy rotates through the
trough, pushing a re-enforcing front across the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night, and below seasonal temps return for Tuesday night.

With essentially no moisture return ahead of the fropa, no rain,
maybe a bit of an increase in cloud cover, is expected. More
energy moving into the eastern upper trough later Tuesday night
into Wednesday pushes surface high pressure east along the
northern gulf coast, bringing light southwesterly flow to the area
by Thursday morning. Temperature moderate upward. But not quite
reaching seasonable levels. Moisture level also begin to increase
with the switch in low level flow Wednesday night.

16
long term Thursday through Sunday ... The extended continues to
be a challenge, especially late in the work week. Another strong
piece of energy dives into the eastern upper trough late Thursday
into Thursday night. The 12z ECMWF is advertising a deeper slower
swing than the 12z gfs. The result is the op ECMWF advertising a
surface low forming over the western gulf Thursday night into
Friday, then tracking it ene over the north-central gulf. The
result is a wetter cooler solution then the gfs. As I write, the
ecmwf ensemble MOS has become available, with the ensemble mean
significantly drier, but not warmer than the op run. Have went
with a gfs ECMWF blend with temps and toned down, but not
completely dried out, the ECMWF pops for Thursday night into
Friday night. A warm-up occurs Thursday ahead of the passing
system, with both advertising a cool-down as post FROPA cold air
moves over the area beginning Friday.

The last piece of shortwave energy moves through northern parts of
the eastern upper trough, pushing another surface high east over the
northern gulf coast, and restoring onshore flow by
Saturday(gfs) Saturday night(ecmwf). Temps moderate upward through
the weekend as a result, with well above seasonal temps, maybe a
shra, returning for Sunday.

16
marine... A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to build
eastward across the gulf of mexico through Monday afternoon,
resulting in a light to moderate northwest to west flow across the
marine area. Westerly flow increases Monday night in advance of an
approaching front, with winds gradually turning northwest Tuesday
then more northerly Tuesday night following the passage of the
front. Wind speeds will approach small craft advisory levels
offshore beginning late Monday evening, and may persist into late
Tuesday evening. An advisory may need to be issued within the next
12-24 hours. Winds diminish Wednesday as a surface ridge builds back
over the gulf of mexico. Another round of moderate to occasionally
strong west to northwest flow may return Thursday into Friday ahead
of and following the passage of another cold front. 21

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi51 min 50°F 55°F1027.1 hPa
PPTA1 23 mi51 min 48°F 1026.8 hPa
WBYA1 38 mi51 min 55°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi96 min 46°F 1027 hPa36°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 48 mi81 min SE 5.1 49°F 1027.1 hPa (-0.7)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi51 min WSW 8.9 G 11 52°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi25 minW 310.00 miFair45°F32°F61%1027.2 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi28 minWSW 810.00 miFair48°F34°F58%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W3W3NW3W3W3CalmCalmNW4NW4NW3N4N3CalmE63444SE5W4SW5W5W3
1 day agoN10
G16
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N7N8NW12
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NW12NW9
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NW7NW5NW5NW6W8NW7NW86NW7
G15
NW7NW11
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2 days agoN11N11N9N11N11
G20
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N12N15N10
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N9
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G20
N13N9--N9
G16
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G18
N10
G20
N9

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:53 AM CST     Last Quarter
Sun -- 03:02 AM CST     0.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:25 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:41 PM CST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:39 PM CST     0.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.90.90.90.90.90.80.70.60.50.30.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Warrington
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:53 AM CST     Last Quarter
Sun -- 01:54 AM CST     0.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:20 PM CST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:25 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:31 PM CST     0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.80.80.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.100.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.60.60.60.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.