Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Miramar Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 4:48PM Sunday November 19, 2017 12:26 AM CST (06:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:04AMMoonset 6:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 936 Pm Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight cst tonight...
.gale warning in effect until 9 am cst Sunday...
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cst Sunday through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Showers likely late in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..North winds around 25 knots with occasional gusts to gale force diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 18 to 23 knots becoming northeast 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 936 Pm Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to shift east to the eastern seaboard and western atlantic through tonight in response to a strong cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move across the marine area late tonight through Sunday morning leading to a strong offshore flow occurring throughout most of the day on Sunday. Northerly winds and seas will gradually subside Sunday night through early Monday. Frequent gusts to gale force, occurring mostly over the open gulf waters, will also be possible in the wake of the front early Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miramar Beach, FL
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location: 30.3, -86.16     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 190541
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1241 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Aviation
[through 06z Monday] a thin line of showers associated with a cold
front will move across the area through the early morning hours.

Brief MVFR ceilings and gusty winds are expected with this line.

Behind the front,VFR conditions are expected, but winds will
remain gusty through the day out of the northwest.

Prev discussion [721 pm est]
Near term [through tonight]
21z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching across the
tennessee valley and lower mississippi valley. The latest surface
observations show that this front is racing quickly southeastward.

The latest guidance from our convection allowing models (cam)
shows the front beginning to move into southeast alabama around
10 pm et 9 pm ct. Updated the pop and weather grids to reflect
the timing from the latest cam guidance, but otherwise no changes
to the forecast were necessary.

Short term [Sunday through Monday night]
A cool and dry airmass will pour into the region on Sunday in the
wake of the cold front. Expect highs to reach into the lower to
mid 60s for most locations. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by
Monday morning as the surface high slides just north of the area.

May see some patchy frost, especially in SE alabama and SW georgia
where the boundary layer is most likely to decouple. The airmass
will begin to modify by Monday afternoon as a shortwave ridge
moves east along the gulf coast. Expect highs in the mid to upper
60s Monday afternoon with lows in the mid to upper 40s by Tuesday
morning.

Long term [Tuesday through Saturday]
Guidance is still have significant issues handling the pattern
evolution by mid to late week. There is good agreement that the
upper trough will become re-established over the eastern CONUS by
mid week, with deep moisture spreading back over the area.

However, the evolution of the main embedded shortwave remains
tricky. Models have oscillated between focusing the main surface
cyclogenesis over the eastern gulf and florida east coast. The
eastern solutions will produce less rain over the area for
Wednesday and Thursday versus the western solutions. With little
model-to-model or run-to-run consistency, will continue to go with
a general blend of the guidance, keeping scattered showers in the
forecast for both Wednesday and Thursday. In either scenario,
temperatures (especially high temperatures) will likely be below
normal with highs generally in the lower to mid 60s.

Marine
Northwesterly winds will increase rapidly by from west to east
overnight in the wake of a cold front. Expect to see small craft
advisory conditions through much of Sunday. Winds and seas will
subside through early next week as high pressure builds in.

However, strong winds may return by mid to late week.

Fire weather
Drier, breezier conditions are expected to move in Sunday in the wake
of a cold front. However, no hazardous fire weather conditions are
expected for the next several days.

Hydrology
No hydro concerns.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 63 35 67 50 72 0 0 0 10 40
panama city 63 39 65 53 70 0 0 0 20 40
dothan 59 35 63 47 68 0 0 0 10 30
albany 61 35 63 47 69 0 0 0 10 20
valdosta 63 34 66 50 72 10 0 0 10 40
cross city 66 35 70 53 75 50 0 0 10 50
apalachicola 64 39 65 55 71 0 0 0 20 50

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for apalachee
bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee
river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river
to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
suwannee river to keaton beach out 20 nm-coastal waters
from apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-waters from
suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Nguyen
short term... Camp
long term... Camp
aviation... Dvd
marine... Camp
fire weather... Nguyen
hydrology... Camp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL18 mi34 minW 6 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F74%1010.7 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL20 mi34 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F68°F82%1011.8 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL23 mi32 minWSW 12 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F67°F81%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S5S443SE6S74S75S85S8SW8
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G17
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1 day agoCalmNE4NE4NE4NE4NE5NE3NE4NE5NE5NE4444S53CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE3NE4N3CalmSW43W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:56 AM CST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:12 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:02 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:45 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:57 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:45 PM CST     1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.40.20-000.10.10.20.30.40.60.60.70.811.21.41.51.61.51.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:12 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:02 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:45 AM CST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:57 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:16 PM CST     1.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.210.70.40.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.50.70.811.21.41.51.61.71.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.