Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay St. Louis, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:03PM Thursday June 22, 2017 9:14 AM CDT (14:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:38AMMoonset 6:35PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound-lake Borgne- 423 Am Cdt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
.tornado watch 363 in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Today..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 20 to 25 knots easing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the late evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots becoming northeast in the late evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 423 Am Cdt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis..Tropical storm cindy has made landfall near the texas/louisiana coast. The tropical system will weaken and quickly lift into the ohio valley over the weekend. A cold front should then move through the coastal waters early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay St. Louis, MS
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location: 30.31, -89.33     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 220900
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
400 am cdt Thu jun 22 2017

Short term
Conditions continue to slooowwwlly improve this morning with
respect to a few variables. Winds have shifted to a southeasterly
direction and continue to ease. As the storm further weakens and
moves inland, expect to see further improvement over the next 36
hours.

Heavy rainfall will remain an issue, but only within banding
structures that set up and train over the same areas. The rainfall
accumulation gradient today will set up perpendicular to the
axial banding. This simply means that there will be locations
that will receive very little rainfall amounts where subsident
warming air between banding structures is located and relatively
much higher rainfall amounts where convergent lift along these
bands is occurring. The banding rainfall will be dynamic as cindy
moves inland and will slowly shift during the day. This should be
enough to allow most areas to receive small amounts an inch or
less while locations that spend the most time under these axial
bands could observe up to 3 inches or better. A flash flood watch
will remain through 7pm today. The watch will be mainly for areas
that fall under these bands as they slowly shift through the day.

Winds have eased a bit and shifted to southeasterly. This has
helped to allow the bulk of water over lake pontchartrain to
begin slowly receding from south shore areas. This causes this
water to be forced via winds and sloshing to the northshore
locations causing moderate coastal flooding in locations normally
prone to flooding. A lot of water has piled into the lakes and
adjacent areas. Eventhough this water was forced into these areas
over a relatively short time frame, there is no meteorological
forcing to alleviate the problem just as fast. This means we will
need to rely on gravity drainage to get this water back out. Winds
will impede this to a certain degree as they remain around 20
knots off and nearshore this morning. For all these reasons we
are expecting a very slow improvement(lowering) in water levels
over the next 48 hours. Areas normally prone to coastal flooding
will continue to have flooding issues through Friday. A coastal
flood advisory will remain through Friday.

Where the banding structures exist, there will continue to be an
issue with tornadic cells. A tornado watch has been posted for the
entire area through 1 pm today for this threat.

Long term
As the remnants of cindy gets picked up by a synoptic trough
moving through the country Thursday night into Friday, it should
be capable of forcing a surface trough southward into the area by
Sunday or Sunday night before becoming stationary while
weakening. This will provide a continued focus for sh TS to form
daily along and south of the boundary through Monday. Global model
solutions are doing their best to send this boundary through the
area with some northerly winds component and somewhat drier
conditions by Tuesday or Tuesday night. This could actually be a
good possibility as the large mass of warm tropical air moves
north, the compensation on the back side should send the front
into the northern gulf... Or at least we are being optimistic.

Aviation
Prevailing MVFR ceilings ranging from 1500 to 2500 feet can be
expected through around 15z. After 15z, ceilings could improve into
vfr range around 3500 feet. However, some build down back into MVFR
range is expected after 00z tomorrow. Also have prevailing MVFR
visibilities ranging from 3 to 5 miles due to the risk of scattered
convection impacting the terminals. Winds will remain gusty from the
south with gusts over 20 knots expected through the afternoon hours.

32

Marine
Conditions on the coastal waters will gradually improve through the
forecast period. A tight pressure gradient associated with the now
inland tropical storm cindy will keep strong southerly winds of 20
to 30 knots in place over all of the waters today. Very rough seas
of up to 12 feet will also be found over the open gulf waters due to
these winds. Tides will also remain well above normal due to the
onshore flow. Tonight and tomorrow, the pressure gradient will ease
and expect to see winds in the open waters fall to 20 to 25 knots
tonight and 15 to 20 knots by tomorrow afternoon. Over the lakes and
sounds winds should fall to 15 to 20 knots tonight and 10 to 15
knots by tomorrow afternoon. Tide levels will also begin to finally
fall off as the onshore flow weakens. Seas will remain fairly rough
offshore, but should drop to 6 to 8 feet by tomorrow afternoon.

Finally, by the upcoming weekend a return to a more normal summer
regime with persistent southeast flow of 10 knots or less and seas
of 3 feet or less can be expected. A weak cold front should then
push through late Sunday night and Monday shifting winds to the
northeast and increasing wind speeds to 10 to 15 knots Monday night
as the cooler and drier air moves over the warmer gulf waters. 32

Decision support
Dss code... Orange.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Monitoring flood potential from cindy.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch warning advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch warning advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk svr and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 84 75 85 73 60 40 70 40
btr 85 76 86 74 70 40 70 40
asd 86 77 87 76 70 50 60 20
msy 86 78 87 76 70 50 70 20
gpt 84 78 85 77 80 60 50 20
pql 84 76 86 75 90 60 40 20

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Flash flood watch through this evening for laz034>037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm cdt Friday for laz040-050-058-
060>062-064-066>070-072.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt Friday for gmz536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for gmz530-532-
534.

Ms... Flash flood watch through this evening for msz068>071-077-
080>082.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm cdt Friday for msz080>082.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt Friday for gmz538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for gmz532-534.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 1 mi51 min S 14 G 20 80°F 78°F1010.9 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 15 mi85 min SSE 5.8 G 9.7 80°F 1010.7 hPa (+2.0)78°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 36 mi51 min SSE 19 G 24 81°F 81°F1010.2 hPa
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 41 mi51 min S 23 G 28 81°F 1012.1 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 41 mi51 min 77°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 43 mi51 min S 9.9 G 18 82°F 1011.7 hPa
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 44 mi51 min S 23 G 28 81°F 1012.7 hPa
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 44 mi51 min 78°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi51 min S 13 G 21 83°F 80°F1009.4 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 48 mi90 min S 22 81°F 1012 hPa76°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SE22
G29
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G30
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G33
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SE20
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NE18
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G28
NE18
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NE4
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NE5
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NE13
G16
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G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS8 mi82 minS 11 G 167.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1010.8 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS15 mi82 minS 10 G 173.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain Fog/Mist79°F77°F94%1010.7 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS23 mi77 minS 17 G 2310.00 miLight Rain78°F75°F94%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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S9------------------S12
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1 day ago--E9
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NE9E10
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G24
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E10NE15
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------------------E10
G15
E5E8
2 days agoCalm544SE5SE8SE10
G15
SE12
G16
SE12E5SE5SE3------------------N34E6

Tide / Current Tables for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:04 AM CDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:21 PM CDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.20.40.60.81.11.31.51.71.92221.91.71.41.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:12 AM CDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:33 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:08 PM CDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.60.91.21.41.71.92.12.12.121.81.51.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.