Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:25PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 7:08 AM CST (13:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:21PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 343 Am Cst Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of light rain in the evening, then light rain likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Light rain likely early in the morning, then rain and chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Light rain likely early in the evening, then chance of light rain in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..West winds near 5 knots becoming northeast in the late evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots becoming north in the late evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 343 Am Cst Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis..Another cold front will push through the coastal waters late Wednesday. High pressure will settle for a short time after Wednesday and another cold front will move through the northern gulf Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, MS
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location: 30.32, -89.14     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 220901
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
301 am cst Tue jan 22 2019

Short term Increasing omega values combined with a surge of
moisture advecting into the region on the back of deep layer
southerly flow today will keep skies overcast and allow for
scattered showers to begin forming this afternoon and evening. The
southerly flow will also advect in a much warmer airmass, and
expect to see highs of around 70 degrees this afternoon.

Conditions tonight will remain unsettled as strong positive
vorticity advection allows for continued deep layer forcing across
the gulf south. This continued increase in forcing will allow for
more numerous showers to begin to developing by late tonight.

Temperatures will be well above normal with lows in the upper 50s
and lower 60s across most of the forecast area.

A strong cold front in advance of the parent positively tilted
upper level trough axis will pass through the forecast area. Have
went with categorical rain chances of around 100 percent and fully
expect to see a band of moderate rain with scattered embedded
elevated thunderstorms push from west to east across the entire
cwa. Thunderstorms will remain elevated as the greatest
instability remains in the 700-500mb range. Temperatures will
remain mild in advance of the front with readings in the 60s, but
temperatures should fall very rapidly after the front moves
through. Fortunately, strong dry air advection will also feed in
behind the front, and expect to see skies turn clear by late
Wednesday evening across most of the cwa. Temperatures will cool
significantly by Thursday morning with lows in the 30s at most
locations. Deep layer northwest flow will dominate the gulf south
on Thursday with clear skies, low humidity, and below normal
temperatures in the low to mid 50s expected. Thursday night should
once again cool into the 30s as surface high pressure becomes
centered over the region.

Long term The northwest flow pattern is expected to persist
through the weekend, and the models are in decent agreement that
another shortwave trough will push through the region on Saturday.

In advance of this trough, high pressure will continue to dominate
on Friday with clear skies and slightly below normal temperatures.

Saturday night should continue to see mostly clear skies and dry
conditions persist as surface winds remain out of the northeast,
and fully expect to see lows cool back into the 30s north of i-10
and the lower 40s south of i-10. Due to the lack of strong
moisture advection into the region on Saturday, only an increase
in cloud cover is currently expected through the day. A gulf low
should begin to form over the north-central gulf by Saturday
night, and this may allow for coastal showers to begin developing
by late Saturday and Sunday. However, the majority of the
precipitation with this system will remain over the coastal waters
and further into the central gulf. By Sunday afternoon, strong
subsidence and dry air advection will lead to clearing skies
across most of the cwa. Temperatures will generally remain near
average through the weekend with highs near 60 and lows near 40.

The northwest flow pattern will begin to break down by next Monday
and expect to see a more zonal flow pattern take hold. A surface
high will remain in control of the area, and expect to see dry
weather and near average temperatures continue. However, both the
gfs and the ECMWF indicate that another shortwave trough will
begin to dive down from the northern plains Monday night into
Tuesday. This system should push another cold front through the
area, and expect to see increasing cloud cover and rain chances on
Tuesday with this frontal passage.

Aviation Ceilings look to remain fairly stable at their current heights and
may actually rise a bit through this TAF cycle. There will also be
some possible tempo decks moving through at bkn020 later today.

Overnight ceilings remain at ovc060 but a secondary layer will move
in ahead of the next front at ovc003 and this could cause some vis
reduction, but that will need to be looked at with future updates.

Wind shift from southerly to NW with FROPA roughly around 15z at
btr, 18z msy, and 20z gpt. The front will carry mainly shra inland
while some tsra will be found along and near coastal locations
wed.

Marine Southerly winds will sharpen a bit today into advisory conditions
ahead of the next front. Model guidance is having trouble keeping up
with these fast moving systems which is typical, but conditions
should rapidly move from light wind speeds to around 20kt during the
morning hours. This will prompt the issuance of a small craft
advisory for all marine areas. A lull in winds will occur overnight
for areas mainly west of the miss river and this will include the
lakes. But strong winds are expected to continue east of the river.

Also, as the front passes waters west of the river, winds will
rapidly rise to around 25kt once again. This will include the
protected waters as well. Wind speeds will only back off a little
before the northerly winds are reinforced by another cold front
moving through Friday. Southerly winds will be back by late Saturday
ahead of the next front moving through Saturday night into Sunday of
next weekend with another set of strong winds.

Decision support
Dss code: blue
deployed: none
activation: none
activities: small craft advisory
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 68 56 60 30 20 70 90 30
btr 70 54 58 32 30 60 90 20
asd 70 61 65 34 10 60 90 50
msy 71 62 65 37 10 50 90 40
gpt 67 61 67 36 10 70 100 60
pql 68 62 69 36 20 70 100 70

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for gmz530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for gmz532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 10 mi38 min SE 6 G 7 57°F 50°F1023.1 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 31 mi38 min 54°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 38 mi83 min ESE 12 57°F 1025 hPa52°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 42 mi38 min ESE 12 G 14 56°F 54°F1022.4 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 49 mi68 min SE 15 60°F 1024.4 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for West Pier, Port of Gulfport, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS7 mi75 minNE 510.00 miOvercast49°F44°F83%1023.4 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS14 mi72 minENE 510.00 miOvercast48°F43°F86%1024 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS17 mi16 minN 010.00 miOvercast52°F37°F58%1024 hPa

Wind History from GPT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE75633SE5S7SE6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5E4N3N6NE5E5
1 day agoNW12NW13
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N10N6CalmN4CalmN5N4N4N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4
2 days agoS6S9
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W7SW6W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Gulfport, Gulfport Harbor, Mississippi
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Gulfport
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:07 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:35 AM CST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:24 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:49 PM CST     2.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.221.81.510.60.2-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.40.60.70.811.21.41.71.92.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:07 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:21 AM CST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:24 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:03 PM CST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.41.10.80.50.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.200.30.60.91.21.41.51.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.