Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrington, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:14PM Friday October 19, 2018 7:53 AM CDT (12:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:42PMMoonset 2:06AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 355 Am Cdt Fri Oct 19 2018
Today..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Winds light becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Sunday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 355 Am Cdt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis..A generally light onshore flow is expected late Friday through early Saturday as high pressure builds over the western atlantic. Strong offshore winds and building seas return late Saturday through Sunday in the wake of a cold front passage on Saturday. A moderate to strong easterly flow is then expected early next week as high pressure builds back in north of the marine area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrington, FL
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location: 30.33, -87.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 191115
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
615 am cdt Fri oct 19 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance...VFR conditions expected across much of the area
throughout today. Cloud cover increases as winds shift to
southerly this afternoon, with a few isolated showers possible
primarily along the coast. Low stratus and patchy fog, possibly
dense at times, will develop late tonight into early Saturday
morning. 49

Prev discussion issued 341 am cdt Fri oct 19 2018
near term now through Friday night ... An upper ridge currently
over the eastern CONUS pushes over the western atlantic through
the next 24 hours ahead of a deep longwave trough digging across
central canada and the northern conus. Beneath the upper ridge, a
surface high also pushes east over the atlantic and a moist
southeast flow develops across the northern gulf coast. Moisture
gradually improves as a result, with pwats reaching 1.5 to 1.75
inches across the area. This should be enough to support a few
showers along the sea breeze today, starting along the coast
during the late morning and early afternoon hours and moving
inland before dissipating after sunset. Instability will be a bit
limited, but cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder in cells
over SW al and the far western fl panhandle, where hi-res guidance
suggests a nose of ~1000 MLCAPE develops this afternoon.

Temperatures will trend a bit warmer as well, with highs reaching
the mid 80s this afternoon and lows tonight in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. 49
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... An upper trof
amplifies over the eastern states on Saturday then slowly moves
off into the western atlantic on Sunday. An associated deep
surface low well off to the northeast brings a strong cold front
southward into the region, which moves through the forecast area
during the day on Saturday. In the wake of the front, a dome of
cool and dry high pressure builds from the plains and into the
eastern states through Sunday, bringing fall-like temperatures to
the area. Will have chance to good chance pops for most of the
area on Saturday as the front moves through, then dry conditions
follow for the remainder of the period. Highs on Saturday range
from the lower 80s over the southern portion of the area to
lower mid 70s well inland as cooler air begins to flow into the
area. Highs on Sunday will be up to several degrees below normal
and range from the lower 70s over the southern portion of the area
to the mid upper 60s well inland. Sunday night looks to be coolest
night of the entire forecast period, with lower 40s well inland
ranging to near 50 at the coast. 29
long term Monday through Thursday ... Another upper trof swings
out of canada and into the interior eastern states on Monday,
then slowly moves off into the western atlantic by Wednesday.

While one would typically expect at least broad upper ridging to
build into the region in the wake of the upper trof, a complex
series of southern stream shortwaves will instead affect the
region during much of the period. The first set of these
shortwaves are expected to advance from texas to across the
northern gulf coast area Monday night into Tuesday. This is
followed by another series of shortwaves (ejected from an upper
trof over the southwestern states) which move across texas and
then across the northern gulf coast area Wednesday into Wednesday
night. In response to the series of shortwaves, an inverted
surface trof develops near the texas coast western gulf on Monday,
then is expected to evolve into a surface low which advances
eastward across the northern gulf or into the north central gulf
coastal states later in the period. While the timing and placement
of this surface low is highly uncertain, the overall pattern at
least supports a return of rain chances to the forecast. For now,
will have dry conditions for most of the area on Monday then
slight chance to chance pops follow for Tuesday and Wednesday and
have gone with good chance pops for Thursday. Temperatures during
the period will generally be near seasonable values. 29
marine... A lighter onshore flow develops today and tonight as high
surface pressure north of the area pushes east over the western
atlantic and the local pressure gradient weakens. Another cold front
passes through on Saturday, with a moderate to strong offshore flow
returning in its wake and lasting through Sunday night. Winds will
be strongest Saturday night into early Sunday and a small craft
advisory may be needed for that period. Winds then shift to easterly
(but remain at scec levels) early next week as high pressure builds
back in north of the marine area. Seas expected to be around 2 feet
today and Saturday, then increase to 3 to 5 feet nearshore and 5 to
7 feet well offshore in the wake of the front Saturday night into
early next week. 49

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 8 mi35 min ENE 1 G 5.1
PPTA1 13 mi53 min 68°F 1022 hPa (+0.3)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 22 mi43 min 9.7 G 14 80°F 1021.8 hPa75°F
WBYA1 27 mi35 min 76°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 28 mi68 min 64°F 1022 hPa60°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 37 mi53 min NNE 9.9 69°F 1021.7 hPa (+0.0)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 38 mi35 min ENE 11 G 12 70°F 1022.2 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 40 mi53 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 70°F 1022.2 hPa (+0.0)62°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 40 mi53 min Calm 64°F 1023.4 hPa (+0.3)
MBPA1 43 mi35 min 70°F 63°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 43 mi53 min NE 9.9 71°F 1022 hPa (+0.7)
PTOA1 44 mi35 min 64°F 60°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 45 mi35 min N 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 76°F1022.9 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 46 mi41 min 64°F 80°F1022.7 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 48 mi53 min ENE 13 72°F 1022 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL2 mi3 hrsNE 610.00 miFair68°F61°F78%1021.9 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi60 minNE 510.00 miFair67°F60°F79%1022.6 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL19 mi78 minWNW 510.00 miFair63°F58°F85%1022 hPa

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE11NE10N10NE9N11NE8N7NE8N7N5N6N6N6N7N7--------N5NE6N4NE5
1 day agoN5NE8N7NE7N5NW6N9NE6N7N10N6N4N6N6N7--------------NE12NE11
2 days agoNE4E5E6SE10SE9SE8SE7S8SE8SE8SE5SE4SE4CalmCalm----------------N6

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:06 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:45 AM CDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:50 PM CDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.91111110.90.90.80.70.60.50.50.40.40.40.50.50.60.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:05 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:24 PM CDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.911.11.11.21.31.31.31.31.31.21.110.80.70.60.60.50.50.60.60.70.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.