Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mandeville, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:30PM Saturday April 20, 2019 11:49 AM CDT (16:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:02PMMoonset 6:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1013 Am Cdt Sat Apr 20 2019
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest near 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves subsiding to less than 1 foot after midnight. Dominant period 4 seconds after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1013 Am Cdt Sat Apr 20 2019
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to build into the area today and tonight and then remain in place through Tuesday. The area of high pressure should then shift toward the eastern gulf on Wednesday as a low pressure system moves into texas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mandeville, LA
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location: 30.33, -90.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 200906
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
406 am cdt Sat apr 20 2019

Short term Convection that occurred yesterday afternoon and early
in the evening quickly dissipated and we were dry overnight. Skies
started to clear out nicely and winds decoupled rather quick in the
evening. Temps were into the upper 40s to mid 50s just about
everywhere in the CWA by 8z.

The weekend looks to be a very pleasant one and any gatherings or
festivals should have optimal late april weather. Deep trough over
the eastern CONUS will continue to slide east with northwest flow
remaining over the region today. This should provide sunny skies
along with dry and cool temperatures. Overnight clear skies, light
winds, and dry conditions should provide a very favorable
radiational cooling night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to mid
50s. Heading into Sunday the trough will have pushed far enough east
to allow mid level ridging. In addition at the sfc high pressure
will have slid into the northeastern gulf allowing for return flow
to slowly set back up through the day. This will also lead to temps
moderating with h925 temps climbing to around 14c by Sunday
afternoon. This suggest highs back into the mid and maybe upper 70s
across much of the region. Coastal ms may be on the cooler side
struggling to get out of the lower 70s especially if onshore flow
can develop by midday.

To start off the work week we remain quiet with the area warming up.

Ridging will dominate the area Monday with ll temps continuing to
warm. Highs could be back in the lower 80s for a few locations
Monday afternoon. Ridge axis does slide east of the region Tuesday
as this will be in response to the next system moving across the
desert SW and 4 corners region. Onshore flow will be in place and
this will increase the dewpoints across the region. This will lead
to morning lows Monday and Tuesday increasing a little but we will
still be near or even slightly below normal. Winds will still be
fairly light so there is some potential for radiation fog. Cab

Long term Medium range models all suggest another system
impacting the region around Thursday and then fairly quiet a
slightly cooler heading into next weekend.

Wednesday appears to be the transition day. We should begin to see
clouds increase with lows Wednesday morning back around or slightly
above normal. Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 and we will
be under strengthening SW flow. Ll flow will also increase Wednesday
and more so Wednesday night in response to our approaching system.

In addition we may begin to see some light showers as early as
Wednesday evening.

Main feature in the extended portion of the forecast is the system
Thursday Thursday night. Overall all of the medium range mdls
suggest a trough moving through the gulf coast states Wednesday
night through Friday. There are some timing and strength differences
with this system but in actuality the GFS and ECMWF are in
relatively decent agreement at least through 00z Wednesday. The
ecmwf then becomes a little slower and deeper as it holds on to a
stronger mid and upper level jet on the back side and base of the
trough where the GFS is slightly downstream of the trough axis. This
causes the ECMWF to dig a tad more and slow down eventually closing
off where the GFS remains open with a very positive tilt to it.

Surprisingly both still show the bulk of the rain Thursday but there
is some on either side of that 12 hr period depending on which model
you look at. With that, like previous forecast will not make a jump
one way or the other yet and models should begin to converge on a
soln as this system is only now coming onshore over the pac nw. At
this time it looks like rain could begin as early as Wednesday night
and may occur off and on through Thursday evening. A stronger soln
like the ECMWF would suggest a sharper begin and end time to
convection where as a more open wave GFS soln is a little messier
with more prolonged moderate to pockets of heavy rain.

Will not go into all of the details but would like to mention that
the ECMWF soln does have a much greater potential for severe weather
and heavy rain however, there are failure modes. The ecmwf's closed
mid level low track is rather far south, moving across east tx and
through the arklams. With that there is a good chance that
convection could become anchored over the gulf which would cut off
our region, this does happen quite often. Combine that with the
possibility of dry slotting and there is a chance we may not see
much more that light to moderate rain. Cab

Aviation ExpectVFR conditions for all area terminals today
through late evening early tonight. Infrared satellite trends
continue to show mid level cloud cover beginning to diminish and
press east, revealing clear skies across the entire area. Only
hazards worth mentioning this morning will be gusty northwesterly
winds across knew and outer gulf marine areas, but should steadily
subside through late morning with no additional hazards expected
through the forecast period. Klg

Marine A departing strong storm system across the mid-atlantic
will continue to support gusty northwesterly winds across all marine
zones early this morning. As this system pulls farther away from the
area, sea-level pressure rises will support a diminishing surface
gradient wind, with all advisories expiring by 10am this morning.

However, some gusty winds may persist across outer gulf marine zones
south and east of chandeleur sound through atleast 21z today, before
diminishing later this evening and into tonight. Accompanying these
strong winds will be seas ranging about 6 to 8 feet for
aforementioned outer gulf marine zones, but will lower along with
the winds tonight. No additional hazards are expected through the
middle part of next week. However, latest long-range model guidance
continues to support the potential for strong to possibly severe
storms by Thursday. Exact threats and specific timing is not certain
at this time, but will become more confident by early next week. Klg

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: small craft advisory until 10am
river flood warnings
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe
and or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats;
events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 69 45 76 50 0 0 0 0
btr 70 48 77 53 0 0 0 0
asd 71 45 76 54 0 0 0 0
msy 71 53 76 59 0 0 0 0
gpt 69 48 73 56 0 0 0 0
pql 71 44 76 53 0 0 0 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt this morning for gmz530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-570-572.

Small craft advisory until 10 am cdt this morning for gmz555-557-
575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt this morning for gmz532-534-
536-538-550-552-570-572.

Small craft advisory until 10 am cdt this morning for gmz557-575-
577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 21 mi50 min WNW 4.1 G 8.9 64°F 67°F1017.8 hPa (+1.7)
FREL1 24 mi50 min NW 4.1 G 9.9 65°F 1017.6 hPa (+1.5)
CARL1 28 mi50 min 60°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 39 mi50 min NW 15 G 18 62°F 69°F1018.2 hPa (+1.5)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 40 mi50 min NW 12 G 18 63°F 67°F1017.3 hPa (+1.3)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 41 mi50 min WNW 6 G 16 65°F 67°F1018.9 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi57 minNNW 11 G 1910.00 miFair66°F30°F27%1017.6 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA20 mi57 minNNW 1510.00 miFair65°F42°F43%1017.8 hPa
Hammond, Hammond Municipal Airport, LA22 mi55 minNW 12 G 1810.00 miFair64°F33°F32%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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N113CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm34NW5NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:24 AM CDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:01 PM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.1000.10.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.911110.90.70.60.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:29 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:21 PM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:00 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.50.60.70.70.80.90.90.90.90.80.70.50.40.20.1-0-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.