Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 8:32 PM   Moonset 6:09 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 245 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 4 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet.Sunday - Southeast winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 245 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure will still have a hold on the area this afternoon, but it is pushing farther to the east and by Friday night will push off the coast into the atlantic. At the same time a series of surface lows will develop over the plains and push northeast through the weekend. Winds have already transitioned to southeast and will remain out of the southwest through Sunday. The pressure gradient will tighten with moderate to strong winds at times beginning as early as Friday and headlines possibly as early as Friday and possibly lasting through the weekend.

FXUS64 KLIX 251729 AAB AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1229 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

NEW AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

With the fear of sounding like a broken record it has been another quiet uneventful night. Warmer yet again with most of the region only in the 60s by 8z and not anticipating much more cooling through sunrise today. The development of areas of light to moderate fog with patches of dense fog has been something we have been keeping an eye on but by 8z nothing yet has developed but there is still a few hours and we likely will see some fog develop right at sunrise. Some mid and upper lvl clouds are streaming in from the northwest and this may be having a minor effect on cooling and thus the production of fog.

For the next few days and through the weekend the word is...WARM. So basically today, April 25th, is probably not the perfect date this year as it is likely no one will need a light jacket today with highs expected in the lower to mid 80s, sorry Miss Rhode Island. If today is not perfect it definitely won't be the next few days as we looks to possibly be a degree or two warmer tomorrow and maybe this weekend as well but clouds could play a little bit of a role in keeping us from really warming as much as possible.

Ridging will continue to build across the eastern CONUS through the weekend with the ridge axis getting east of the area early tomorrow.
This will place us in southwest flow aloft but with the ridge building it will also allow the LL to warm another degree or two. It will also keep the multiple disturbances that move across the Plains tomorrow and through the weekend well off to our northwest and north while we remain dry for the most part. It wouldn't be a complete shock though if we saw one or two light showers develop each day this weekend after we have heated up, especially Sunday as moisture continues to trickle up. Also just want to point out that if a few showers can develop they likely will exhibit some rotation but given how warm the temps will be from h8 to h7 any shower that develops will be shallow and struggle to get above 7k ft. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Medium range models continue to exhibit good consistency and continuity. Confidence remains slightly higher than normal in the extended forecast with rain returning to some areas Monday into Tuesday but no real frontal passage and the area remaining warm next week. No deviations made from the NBM at this time.

Heading into the new work week the ridge that has dominated the eastern seaboard and much of the southeast CONUS will finally begin to feel of the multiple disturbances riding across the Plains and towards the Great Lakes. The western periphery of the ridge should sufficiently break down as the trough finally moves into the Lower MS Valley late Monday. This should allow for4 showers and possible a few thunderstorms to move into the area but it is beginning to look like the northern half of the CWA may be the only area to really see much rain. Looking a little deeper and it appears that even though the ridge finally breaks down part of it is only being suppressed into the Gulf and the ridge quickly tries to build into the coastal areas of LA as it tries to reestablish itself over the western Gulf, portions of the Lower MS Valley and southern Plains by midweek.
Medium range models even show hghts rising overnight Monday and Tuesday just along and south of the SELA coast while we see a weakness over southwest MS. That would favor higher rain chances over the northern half of the area and much lower PoPs across coastal SELA. The warm temps don't go anywhere and look to stay with us through next week. /CAB/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions continue this afternoon and can be expected this evening and into the overnight. Again, MCB and maybe HUM may see a slight drop in VIS around sunrise with IFR conditions possible due to shallow fog. Otherwise, back to VFR with moderate southerly winds developing through the cycle.

MARINE
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

One more benign day with high pressure keeping southeasterly winds in check before winds start to increase in speed tomorrow and especially through the weekend. High pressure will continue to slide east and should push off the Atlantic coast tomorrow while multiple sfc low develop and move northeast through the Plains and towards the Upper MS Valley and Great lakes through the weekend.
This will tighten the pressure gradient and headlines are expected through the weekend possibly as early as late tomorrow. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 83 60 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 87 65 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 85 63 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 84 67 84 72 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 81 65 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 85 62 82 66 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, Tide feet

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