Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mandeville, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:17PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 8:56 AM CDT (13:56 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 7:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 330 Am Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the late evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 330 Am Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the eastern gulf through Wednesday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact the waters on Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back over the area by Friday. The high should be east of the area by Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mandeville, LA
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location: 30.33, -90.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 280824
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
324 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Short term
The trough over the louisiana arkansas line will continue to back
off today with only a hint of sh/ts developing mainly due to
heating and some boundary interaction well to the north. Will
keep only a slight chance of rain for the northern most zones
today. Stability increases as the boundary moves north late today
and tonight. This will last through at least the Wednesday
daylight hours.

Wed night into Thursday morning we will begin to observe some
rapid changes with a cold front moving out of texas. The feature
that will cause this is located over the SW CONUS at the moment as
a sharp upper trough. Two key elements will occur over the next
36 hours to bring severe thunderstorms to the area. First the
upper trough will begin to kick out as it moves east but at the
same time, stronger energy will dump into the back side of the
upper trough causing it to slow and dig a little more Wed morning
over west texas. This will then allow the second element to occur
as the subtropical jet couples with the stronger polar jet and
associated upper trough.

Eventhough the main sfc low will be displaced farther north of our
area, it will be this stronger energy moving through the base of
the polar trough along with the enhanced split flow by the subtropical
jet that will cause most of the issues. As the stronger jet winds
move through the base of the upper trough and begin exiting the
east side, the trough will begin to finally kick out. This occurs
at the same time that the subtropical jet helps to cause an even
stronger divergent flow aloft as it rips away from the polar jet
downstream. This very strong divergent flow aloft will have
dynamic variables very high, although the GFS may be overdoing
things just a bit with its possible feedback. An MCS type feature
should begin to initialize where this split flow exists over se
texas and move east during the day Wednesday. This feature should
start to move into the area late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning and take much of, if not all day, to move through. All
modes of severe weather will accompany this feature including the
potential for heavy rainfall. SPC currently has the area under a
slight risk for this scenario as well.

The uncertainty lies with the subtropical jet strength and
placement. There is a pretty good consensus on the polar jet but
the subtropical jet has not been well sampled just yet. This may
occur today though. Basically, the scenario mentioned above will
occur, just where it occurs will be somewhat in question. If the
jet moves into and folds northward along with the polar jet, this
mcs like feature will move through our area and ne. If the coupled
jets are slightly farther south, this severe weather feature would
stay mainly along and offshore. At the moment, we will keep this
feature moving along with the GFS solution until there is ample
sampling of the subtropical jet.

Long term
The next system will move in rather quickly on the heels of the
last and by Sunday we may begin to see some affects from it. This
time the main sfc low looks to be closer to the area providing
strong dynamic and kinematic support for severe weather once
again. But since this feature is on the back side of the weekend,
we will concentrate more on Thursday's system for now.

Aviation
Most terminals reporting ceilings in the ifr or MVFR ranges early
this morning. Most will see at least a brief period of ifr
conditions. Improvement toVFR conditions is expected by mid to late
morning, around 15-16z. Those conditions should continue for the
remainder of the daytime hours. Another round of MVFR to ifr
conditions is expected to redevelop near or shortly after 06z
Wednesday. 35

Marine
Winds will remain in the 10 to 15 knot range for today and tonight.

As next system moves out of the rockies, pressure gradient will
tighten somewhat and winds over the western waters should increase
to 15-18 knots by late Wednesday. This will eventually require small
craft exercise caution headlines. Conditions to spread eastward
across the remaining waters and continue into Friday morning.

Another round of strengthening winds may require headlines late in
the weekend. 35

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: assessing convective threats for this week.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 82 65 85 66 / 20 10 10 20
btr 84 65 87 67 / 10 10 10 20
asd 82 66 84 66 / 10 10 0 10
msy 82 69 85 69 / 10 10 10 10
gpt 77 68 81 66 / 10 10 10 10
pql 79 64 82 65 / 10 10 0 10

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 21 mi39 min Calm G 1 72°F 72°F1015.9 hPa
FREL1 24 mi45 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 72°F 1014.7 hPa71°F
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 25 mi67 min Calm G 0 66°F 1016.5 hPa (+1.7)66°F
CARL1 28 mi39 min 57°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 39 mi45 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 75°F1016.3 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 40 mi45 min SSW 4.1 G 6 73°F 75°F1016.1 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 41 mi45 min ENE 1 G 2.9 71°F 75°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Last
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S6
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SE3
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S10
G15
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G25
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S1

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi64 minN 09.00 miOvercast69°F66°F93%1015.9 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA20 mi64 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F70°F94%1015.4 hPa
Hammond, Hammond Municipal Airport, LA22 mi82 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist64°F62°F94%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9
G17
S12S12S16S17
G22
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S17S12S10
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S10S8S8S7S5S5S4S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3S8S7S8S6S6S9S11S11S10S10SE6SE6SE6SE5SE10
G14
S11
G17
S8S9S6S5SE3SE5SE4
2 days agoS11
G21
S9S9S13S9
G22
NW11
G21
4S4S6SE5SE4S4S3CalmCalmS4S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tchefuncta River
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:22 AM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:54 AM CDT     0.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:41 PM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:07 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:58 PM CDT     0.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.30.30.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:32 AM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:30 AM CDT     0.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:15 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:34 PM CDT     0.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.