Sunrise 6:51 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 9:06 PM   Moonset 6:41 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 252000 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The latest GOES 16 Water Vapor imagery places a mid-level low over the Four Corners, resulting in southwest flow bringing plenty of Pacific moisture our way in the mid levels. At the surface, a dryline remains situated well west of our region, allowing surface dewpoints to surge into the upper 60s to lower 70s area wide. As a result, low clouds will be tough to break today, with some drizzle and perhaps a rain shower or two possible through the early evening hours. Afternoon highs today are expected to top out in the lower 90s over the Rio Grande Plains, along with 80s everywhere else.

For tonight, some storms are expected to develop over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau and slide south and eastward through late Friday morning. At this time, the severe threat is someone limited by cap strength and a lack of daytime heating, however, some redevelopment is possible by the afternoon/early evening hours. Hi-res guidance has struggled with this messy environment over the last couple of days and that trend looks to continue through the short term period. In any matter, a Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for most of the CWA, excluding just Val Verde County and the Coastal Plains. As far as the temperatures go, the Rio Grande Plains are expected to begin a bit of a hot stretch starting Friday. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 90s with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected over Val Verde County by the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A potentially active weather period still appears on the horizon Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. The dryline will likely make a brief eastward push late Saturday afternoon/early evening which may help convection develop over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau. Initially, the setup favors isolated supercells, with all modes of severe weather possible. A stronger eastward push of the dryline is anticipated early Sunday morning as an upper level trough axis and Pacific cold front approach from the west. This should then favor convection developing into more of a linear mode across the Hill Country, with models showing some weakening of convection while approaching the I-35 corridor Sunday morning. We will also need to watch the afternoon hours for some potential breaks in the cloud cover and heating to help destabilize the atmosphere along the dryline. SPC outlooks place the Hill Country and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a Level 1 of 5 risk in place for most of the remainder of south central Texas.

The dryline will retreat westward Sunday evening into Monday morning as quasi-zonal flow aloft continues. Another upper level trough looks to approach from the west during the middle of the upcoming week. We will continue to mention low-end rain chances across most areas and will refine the forecast as models begin to converge on timing of when the next upper level system will impact the region.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Abundant surface moisture will continue to result in less than ideal flying conditions early this afternoon, along with breezy winds from 140-180 at 15-20 kts, gusting to 25-30 kts. We should see VFR ceilings beyond 19Z and continue through 02-03Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF before MVFR returns in advance of a chance at TSRA at the terminals between 09Z and 17Z Friday. DRT should remain dry, but some MVFR cigs look like a decent bet between 07Z-18Z Friday. Overall, confidence is highest in TSRA at AUS, but opted for PROB30 groups at SAT and SSF as well, as confidence is coverage is the lowest, and if storms do indeed form further south, we want to have the possibility covered.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 82 71 86 / 10 50 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 82 71 85 / 10 50 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 84 71 86 / 10 40 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 69 80 69 82 / 20 50 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 97 73 98 / 10 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 81 71 84 / 10 50 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 70 87 71 89 / 20 20 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 83 71 86 / 10 40 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 84 73 85 / 0 30 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 84 71 85 / 20 30 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 72 86 72 87 / 20 30 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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