Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeway, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday April 27, 2017 9:30 PM CDT (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:01AMMoonset 8:41PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeway, TX
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location: 30.35, -97.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 272353
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin/san antonio tx
653 pm cdt Thu apr 27 2017

Aviation
Winds will decrease over the next few hours under some high clouds.

MVFR/ifr CIGS will develop by around 04z or 05z in austin and san
antonio and by around 09z at drt. Low CIGS will last through the
night with conditions improving toVFR by late morning or early
afternoon.

Prev discussion /issued 245 pm cdt Thu apr 27 2017/
short term (tonight through Friday night)...

low level moisture will return tonight with stratus developing
overnight. Friday morning lows will be around 15-20 degrees warmer in
some areas compared to this morning. Low level moisture will continue
to increase Friday and Friday night beneath a strengthening cap and a
few isolated showers may be possible Friday night into Saturday
morning. Breaks in the cloud cover Friday afternoon should allow
temperatures to climb into the low 90s across the east and mid 90s
across the south and west. Combined with increasing dew points this
should put heat index values into the upper 90s across the region
tomorrow afternoon.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)...

an upper level low through the short term will develop near the four
corners and southern rockies and by Saturday morning be located
across new mexico. A lead shortwave in the southwest flow aloft will
move through eastern areas of the CWA during the day on Saturday.

The main question will be how quickly the cap erodes during the day
on Saturday, if it completely erode at all. As has been the case
much of the spring, GFS forecast soundings at aus and Sat indicate a
much faster erosion of the cap than does the ecmwf, canadian and
nam12 and as such develops isolated/scattered convection near and
east of i-35 Saturday afternoon. Am leaning towards a slightly
stronger cap as the rest of the model soundings indicate and slower
erosion during the day on Saturday, awaiting for the main forcing
Saturday night. However, if a storm were to develop MUCAPE values of
3000-3500 j/kg combined with 0-6km shear values of 40-50 kts could
yield an isolated strong to severe storm Saturday afternoon.

As mentioned the main forcing in the base of the upper level low
moving into texas will eventually lead to better chances of storms as
the associated cold front catches up with the dry line over the cwa
early Saturday evening. This should help convection overcome what is
left of the weakening cap through portions of the hill country and
i-35 corridor between 00z-03z Saturday evening. Eventually storms
could organize into a broken line as the front progresses east of
i-35 late Saturday evening and into the overnight. Given the
aforementioned MUCAPE and increasing 0-6km shear values over the
region, there will be a risk for some storms Saturday night to be
severe across portions of the hill country and along and east of
i-35. The main threats at this time appear to large hail initially,
transitioning to damaging straight-line winds east of i-35 should a
line develop. 0-1km and 0-3km shear will be low and does not align
well with the most unstable area, therefore the potential for
tornadoes associated with this activity appears low at this time.

While pockets of heavy rain may occur, the progressive nature of the
front will sweep the entire system through quickly by Sunday morning
limiting the potential for a widespread flash flood threat. Overall
rainfall totals 1/4 to 1 inch will be common across central and
eastern areas, with pockets up to 2 inches possible.

Clearing with windy northwest winds developing during the day on
Sunday. This could lead to elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions Sunday afternoon across western areas that do not receive
much rain with this system.

Below normal lows will occur again on Monday morning behind the
front, with lows into the upper 40s and low 50s in many areas. A
warming trend will take place Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

Another potential upper level system and surface cold front looks to
possibly impact the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. There is
currently a large spread between the ECMWF and GFS on timing of this
cold front.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Austin camp mabry 69 91 75 89 57 / 10 10 20 30 70
austin bergstrom intl airport 68 91 76 88 58 / 10 10 20 30 70
new braunfels muni airport 69 91 75 89 58 / 10 10 20 20 70
burnet muni airport 67 89 73 85 51 / 0 - 20 30 60
del rio intl airport 69 96 71 93 55 / - - - 10 20
georgetown muni airport 68 89 75 85 55 / - 10 20 30 70
hondo muni airport 68 93 74 91 56 / - 10 20 20 40
san marcos muni airport 68 91 76 87 57 / 10 10 20 20 70
la grange - fayette regional 69 90 77 87 60 / 10 10 20 30 70
san antonio intl airport 70 92 75 89 58 / 10 10 20 20 60
stinson muni airport 70 93 75 90 58 / 10 10 20 20 60

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Mesoscale/aviation... 05
synoptic/grids... Hampshire
public service/data collection... Williams


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX10 mi55 minSSE 910.00 miFair75°F52°F46%1003 hPa
Austin City, Austin Camp Mabry, TX11 mi39 minSE 810.00 miFair76°F55°F48%1002.2 hPa
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, TX20 mi37 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F57°F56%1002.1 hPa
Austin Executive Airport, TX22 mi55 minSSE 710.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1003 hPa
Horseshoe Bay Resort Airpark, TX24 mi55 minSSE 610.00 miFair76°F51°F42%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from RYW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N8NE6NE6E6SE4SE3CalmSE3SE3SE3SE6SE7S5SE7S9
G14
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G15
S6
G20
S8
G14
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G15
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1 day agoSE9
G21
S7S8
G19
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G22
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G19
S10
G16
S9S11
G18
W6S7S10SW9
G14
W13
G18
W11
G14
NW12
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W11
G25
NW18
G27
NW22
G28
W15
G28
NW18
G26
N11
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NW9
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NW7N7
2 days agoS9S9
G16
S12
G20
S10
G19
S8
G17
S12
G21
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G23
S7S11S13
G23
S7SW8
G16
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G20
S9
G17
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G23
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G18
S11
G18
SE8
G17
S11
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.