Monday, August21, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:25PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:00 AM CDT (16:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:07AMMoonset 7:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1026 Am Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of today..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1026 Am Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis..A broad surface ridge of high pressure will persist over the western atlantic and southeast states through early Wednesday leading to a predominately weak onshore flow each afternoon throughoutthe week. A weak frontal boundary is expected to stall near or just north of the coast by late Wednesday and remain nearly stationary through Friday. Better coverage of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected with this pattern later in the week. Winds and seas higher near scattered showers and Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, AL
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location: 30.36, -87.61     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 211239
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
739 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

21 12z issuance... AVFR forecast will generally prevail across the
forecast area through the period. Expect isolated to scattered
shra tsra to develop primarily after the 21.18z time frame today.

Localized MVFR or lower conditions and gusty winds will be
possible near storms. Calm to light variable winds early this
morning, becoming southeast to south and increasing to 5-10 knots
late this morning into the afternoon. The isolated to scattered
showers and storms will diminish shortly after sunset this
evening. Possibly some light patchy fog after 22 06z. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 433 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
near term now through Monday night ... As has been discussed in
previous discussions, moisture will gradually begin to increase
from southeast to northwest as the tutt (tropical upper
tropospheric trough) over the central gulf of mexico continues to
move slowly but surely to the west. Current IR satellite imagery
is already indicating some thin cirrus clouds streaming across the
area, and water vapor imagery is indicating a noticeable moisture
increase over the area. Some patchy light fog developing across
the region this morning is yet another indicator of this
increasing moisture trend. Obviously, there is a lot of interest
in the cloud forecast for today in association with the occurrence
of the solar eclipse. Given the expected increase in moisture, we
are likely to see a mix of high level clouds early this morning
with increasing cumulus development beginning late in the morning
and continuing through the afternoon, especially across the
southern half of the area. This will result in periods of mostly
cloudy skies. In addition, most of our meso-scale models indicate
that we will see isolated to scattered convection develop through
the course of the day, likely beginning around noon to 1 pm, with
the best coverage likely to be in the mid to late afternoon hours
across coastal areas due to the seabreeze aiding in pooling
moisture and increasing mlcapes to 1500-2500 j kg. Therefore,
areas north of hwy 84 likely will be the least likely to have
eclipse viewing interruption from passing clouds, with the
southern half of the area having to deal with a greater coverage
of clouds. High temperatures today will top out in the low to mid
90s. Interestingly, we will likely see temperatures drop a few
degrees early in the afternoon due to the loss of incoming solar
radiation during the eclipse. Low temperatures tonight ranging
from the low to mid 70s over interior areas to upper 70s and even
near 80 along the coast. 12 ds
short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... Will start the
short term period with a mid-level ridge axis extending from the
western atlantic to northern texas. South of the ridge, an upper
tropospheric trof will be positioned over the western gulf and
moves little thru mid week, while to the north of the ridge, trof
axis causes geo-potential heights to lower over the upper mid-
west. The northern periphery of the southern us mid level ridge
begins to break down by Wednesday as long-wave high level trof
begins to dig into the appalachians. Deep layer moisture continues
to modify area-wide with pwat values looking to average around
2.0 inches. With upper trof digging into the appalachians, there
is support for a surface front to begin moving southward across
the mid mississippi river valley Tuesday and Wednesday. With front
still well to the north this period, the higher chance of
convective initiation will be driven mostly by daily instability,
coupled by ascent provided by the passage of mid-level impulses
on the eastern periphery of western gulf upper trof low Tuesday
and Wednesday. Storms likely to be strong at times with the main
hazards being brief strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and
localized heavy rains that may contribute to mainly nuisance type
flooding at times.

Daytime highs mostly in the lower half of the 90s. Highest heat
indices look to range from 101 to 105 degrees. Overnight lows in
the lower to mid 70s interior to mid to upper 70s beaches. 10
long term Thursday through Sunday ... Frontal boundary settles
southward over the forecast area on Thursday and will provide for
an added focus for storm initiation. There are indications in the
latest global spectral physical solutions that the front will
begin to stall close to the coast by Friday and remain near the
coast on Saturday as well. In the other camp, the ensemble low
level wind fields favor the front slipping more off the coast into
the weekend. Either way, the front looks to be close enough as to
maintain a modest chance of showers and storms thru the period
and is consistent with the blended guidance. Daytime highs look to
be close to seasonal values on average, ranging from the lower
90s interior to upper 80s beach areas. Overnight lows may dip into
the upper 60s over the interior zones by the end of the week with
the front to the south. Otherwise, little overall change in
overnight mins. 10
marine... A ridge of surface high pressure will persist over the
interior southeastern states, just to the northeast of the marine
area through early Wednesday. This will result in a weak,
predominately onshore flow through Wednesday, but somewhat
influenced by the diurnal land breeze-sea breeze circulation. A weak
front is expected to move down from the north and stall near or just
north of the marine area by late Wednesday and then remain nearly
stationary through Friday. This will maintain a light and somewhat
variable wind flow across the marine area during the latter part of
the week. Little change in seas is expected through the period.

Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 6 mi60 min NNE 1.9 88°F 1020.7 hPa (+2.0)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 12 mi75 min 88°F 78°F
WBYA1 12 mi42 min 85°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 21 mi42 min 89°F 88°F1020.5 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 21 mi70 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 85°F 88°F1 ft1019.4 hPa (+1.1)79°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 22 mi60 min NNE 7 88°F 1019.6 hPa (+1.0)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi42 min NE 7 G 8.9 86°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 26 mi60 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 85°F 1019.6 hPa (+1.5)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 27 mi30 min NNE 2.9 87°F 1020.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 28 mi60 min NE 8.9 85°F 1020.3 hPa (+1.7)
PTOA1 31 mi42 min 88°F 76°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 31 mi42 min NE 5.1 G 7 86°F 87°F1020.9 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 33 mi60 min ENE 8.9 85°F 1020.3 hPa (+1.4)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 33 mi42 min 92°F 86°F1020.1 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 43 mi75 min NE 5.1 86°F 1021 hPa77°F
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 47 mi42 min 87°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 48 mi42 min NE 6 G 8 88°F 1019.8 hPa
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 49 mi42 min NE 7 G 8 85°F 1021 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL6 mi65 minENE 410.00 miFair87°F78°F77%1020 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL16 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair86°F78°F79%1020 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi64 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F77°F70%1020 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL23 mi67 minNE 510.00 miFair89°F75°F65%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE6SE5SE6S8S7S7SE5SE4E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmNW4
1 day agoN4NE6N5S8SW10
2 days agoN6NW8W7W5SW10NE7CalmNW9

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
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Mon -- 06:07 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM CDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:31 PM CDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:33 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:34 PM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
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Mon -- 06:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:11 AM CDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:59 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:31 PM CDT     New Moon
Mon -- 05:30 PM CDT     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.