Friday, December15, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 4:52PM Friday December 15, 2017 8:07 AM CST (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:12AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 333 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft exercise caution...
Today..North winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Patchy fog. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Patchy fog. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 333 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis..North of a front stalled south of the light to moderate northerly flow will transition to easterly, then southerly through the weekend as surface high pressure moves from the southern plains to over the carolinas. Winds will remain a moderate onshore into Tuesday, then become moderate to strong by Wednesday as a surface front moves across the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, AL
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location: 30.36, -87.61     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 151128 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
528 am cst Fri dec 15 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12z issuance...VFR CIGS visbys expected through the forecast. Shra
will pass east along and south of the coast, but be of little to
no consequence at area TAF sites.


Prev discussion issued 454 am cst Fri dec 15 2017
near term now through Friday night ... Shortwave energy streaming
e-ne south of a more organized shortwave trough easing slowly
south over the southeast. As the day progresses, the slowly
southward moving energy becomes dominant. This energy works with a
front stalled just south of the marine portion of the forecast
area to provide the focus for isentropic upglide shra to mainly
the marine portion of the area today into this evening. Am
expecting best chance of rain reaching the surface being along and
south of the coast, decreasing in coverage and intensity as the
southward moving energy becomes dominant. Looking down-stream,
over the lower mississippi river valley, the current "precip"
showing on radar looks to be mainly mid to upper level based
virga, with ceilings reported at or above 12,000' except for obs
south of new orleans, re-enforcing the mainly marine rain today.

With abundant cloud over the area and cold advection expected
through the near term, temps well below seasonal averages likely,
with a light freeze possible over the northwestern two-third of
the land portion of the forecast area. 16
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... A 1026mb surface
high pressure area across the southeast states Saturday morning
will move east, setting up a southerly return flow over the
weekend. The region will remain wedged between upper high pressure
centered over the bahamas and an upper cutoff low over northwest
mexico lifting northeast over west texas through midnight
Saturday. The upper low will then move quickly toward the
northeast CONUS as an open wave late Saturday night and Sunday,
disippating along the northern periphery of the upper high
pressure area by Sunday evening. Deep layer moisture will increase
significantly across the region, with precipitable water values
climbing to between 1.8 to 2 inches by Sunday evening.

Rain-free conditions will persist across the forecast area
through Saturday night, followed by numerous to definite rain
chances, along with embedded thunderstorms, spreading from west
to east across the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night as upper
level impulses associated with the ejecting upper wave traverse
the region. Widespread rainfall amounts on Sunday will range from
0.75 to 1.25 inches, with locally high amounts near 2 inches

A rapid rise in temperatures will also occur as low temperatures
Saturday morning in the upper 20 to mid 30s climb into the upper
50s to mid 60s for lows Sunday night. High temperatures in the mid
to upper 50s on Saturday will climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s
on Sunday. 22
long term Monday through Thursday ... The pattern then gets
increasingly complicated through the long term as a second cutoff
upper low pressure area over the southwest CONUS Monday morning
moves slowly eastward and also evolves into an open wave over the
southern plains on Tuesday. A more southern track of the upper
level impulses east of the open wave are anticipated to move over
the southeast states due to the upper high pressure area migrating
toward the southwest.

The ECMWF develops two upper shortwaves that pass just north of
the forecast area, while the GFS maintains one stronger upper
shortwave over the deep south. Timing differences of upper level
impulses between the two models create low confidence on exactly
when the higher chances of precipitation will occur. For now,
forecasting numerous to definite rain chances along with embedded
thunderstorms on Monday, followed by scattered to numerous rain
showers Monday night through midweek, with decreasing
thunderstorm coverage. Lower rain chances should occur Thursday as
most of the energy will have moved east of the region.

Additional widespread rainfall amounts Monday through Thursday
are expected to range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches, with locally high
amounts near 3 inches possible. 22

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 6 mi67 min 51°F 1019 hPa (+2.4)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 12 mi142 min 47°F 1017 hPa47°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 12 mi187 min Calm 53°F 1017.6 hPa (-0.0)
WBYA1 12 mi49 min 54°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 21 mi55 min 51°F 55°F1018.7 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 22 mi67 min N 19 49°F 1018.3 hPa (+2.0)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi49 min NNE 16 G 19 50°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 26 mi67 min N 15 G 17 51°F 1018.4 hPa (+1.8)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 27 mi67 min NNW 7 46°F 1018.6 hPa (+1.4)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 28 mi67 min N 8 50°F 1018 hPa (+1.7)
PTOA1 31 mi49 min 46°F 39°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 31 mi49 min N 8 G 12 45°F 55°F1019.8 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 33 mi55 min 46°F 55°F1019.6 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 33 mi67 min N 14 51°F 1019 hPa (+1.7)
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 47 mi49 min 57°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 48 mi49 min N 12 G 15 47°F 1018.9 hPa
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 49 mi49 min N 14 G 17 49°F 1020 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL6 mi72 minNNE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F43°F77%1018.6 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL16 mi72 minN 510.00 miFair46°F42°F87%1019 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi71 minNNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F44°F80%1018.4 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL23 mi74 minN 1010.00 miA Few Clouds51°F43°F74%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmW4W8W7W8W6W6W3SW5CalmW3W6CalmW5NW4NW4Calm----N5W6N9N8N9
1 day agoE3E6SE7SE7SE6S6SW8SW9SW6W7CalmW9W5W5W10
2 days agoNW12

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
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Fri -- 04:12 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM CST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:24 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:30 PM CST     1.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
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Fri -- 02:40 AM CST     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:13 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:56 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:25 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:09 PM CST     1.44 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:53 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:37 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.