Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday March 26, 2017 1:43 PM CDT (18:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:55AMMoonset 5:49PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1006 Am Cdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1006 Am Cdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis..A light to moderate southerly wind flow persists through mid week as high pressure rebuilds over the eastern and north central gulf. A stronger onshore flow...a resultant build in seas and higher chances of Thunderstorms return late this week as next storm system approaches from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, AL
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location: 30.36, -87.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 261743 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1243 pm cdt Sun mar 26 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
18z issuance... Scattered to broken CIGS with lowest bases
at MVFR categories thru the afternoon. Vsby ok. A general light
southerly component in afternoon winds. Isolated shra at the coast
which contributes to a vcty at the terminals. Scattered afternoon
tsra over the interior northeast. Going into tonight, there are
indications of low CIGS and reduced vsby in developing br.

Potential of lifr CIGS and ifr/lifr vsby during the pre-dawn hours
Monday. /10

Prev discussion /issued 1051 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017/
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Latest surface observations are clear of fog and have
updated zones to remove morning fog wording.

Weather maps show two upper level storm systems over the central
us. The first, which brought an area of showers and storms thru
the local area on Saturday, was ejecting northeast up into the
upper mid-west. On its heels is the second, which will be moving
into the plains. Between the two, a high level west southwest
flow is in place over the deep south. Looking at surface features,
a quasi-stationary surface front was draped from the lower ms
river valley westward across the red river valley of tx/ok. To the
southeast of this boundary, an analysis of deep layer moisture
shows pwats near an inch over the central gulf coast, which is
close to climatological normal. Isolated showers were popping up
over the western fl panhandle. Expect, with daytime heating,
resultant instability along with the eastward passage of subtle
impulses in the flow aloft, that there is enough to maintain
isolated to low end scattered coverage of showers and storms
today over the region. This solution is also favored in the
latest high res model runs of the hrrr and is currently advertised
in 1st period of forecast. Thus will make no change. Severe
weather not anticipated today with latest day 1 outlooks by spc
showing general storms over the deep south. /10
although southerly flow is light, high risk of rip currents
is maintained along the beaches as modest long period swells
(around 8 seconds) continue to move up into the surf zone. Several
beaches also flying red flags. /10
prev discussion... /issued 625 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... MVFR to ifr CIGS and visibilities through about
26.14z followed byVFR to MVFR CIGS through about 27.04z followed
by MVFR to ifr CIGS and visibilities through 27.12z. A few
isolated showers or thunderstorms will also be possible through
this afternoon. Winds will be southeast to south at 4 to 10 knots
through the forecast period. 32/ee
prev discussion... /issued 517 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017/
near term /now through Sunday night/... Deep low center which
help bring showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area on sat
was just southwest of the great lakes region this morning progged
to lift NE through tonight followed by another deepening system
moving from the rockies to the central plains states this
afternoon and tonight. Near the surface high pressure along the
eastern seaboard will retrograde southwest and west over the se
conus and north central gulf through tonight leading to a better
pressure gradient developing across the north central gulf states
late tonight and early Mon morning. For today expect residual
clouds and precip to continue over much of the eastern half of the
forecast area early today lifting slowly east and northeast this
afternoon thus leading to better sunshine for most locations in
the forecast area by mid to late afternoon. Although model
soundings show increased instability later this morning and this
afternoon a well defined warm layer/cap at around 12k ft is noted
in the column affecting all locations limiting the coverage of
precip throughout the day. Again the best coverage of precip will
be over the eastern half of the forecast area with maybe an
isolated thunderstorm embedded in isolated to scattered
rainshowers. With still limited moisture in the lower levels of
the boundary layer rainfall totals should remain below .10 inches
for all areas through this afternoon. With limited forcing in the
mid levels the threat for strong to severe thunderstorm
development will be very low to nil. As mentioned above with
plenty of residual moisture lingering in the lower levels of the
boundary layer through tonight will continue mention patchy dense
fog for all inland areas early this morning... Reforming again
mostly after midnight tonight continuing through early mon
morning.

Day time temps will be warmer today due to less mixing and better
sunshine by afternoon leading to highs in the lower to middle 80s
for all inland areas and the mid to upper 70s along the immediate
coast... Due to the cooler sea surface temps and a persistent onshore
flow. For lows tonight have opted to go a degree or 2 above the
warmer MOS numbers due to increasing clouds after midnight. 32/ee
short term /Monday through Tuesday night/... A fairly moist
southwest flow pattern aloft will continue across our forecast
area Monday on the base of a shortwave trough that will be lifting
across the lower mississippi and tennessee valley regions. A moist
southerly low level flow pattern will also continue Monday as
surface high pressure continues to nose from the western atlantic
to the northern gulf of mexico, and surface low pressure moves
northeastward from the plains to the upper midwest. Short range
guidance remains in agreement with the development of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across our forecast area
Monday as lift spreads overhead on the base of the shortwave
trough axis. The best coverage of convection looks to be favored
generally northwest of the i-65 corridor, and especially interior
southeast ms and southwest al, where we will carry a 40-50% chance
of convection. We will need to monitor for a few strong storms
over our northwestern zones Monday afternoon, where a combination
of healthy instability (mlcape values around 1000 j/kg), deep
layer shear values around 40 knots, a bit steeper mid level lapse
rates will be co-located to aid in better storm organization.

There is a marginal risk of severe storms clipping wayne and
choctaw counties, but any storm northwest of i-65 may be capable
of producing strong/gusty winds and potentially some hail. We will
continue to mention potential of strong storms over those
interior areas Monday in the hwo. Highs Monday should range in the
upper 70s to lower 80s over the interior, and in the mid 70s near
the beaches. There may be some lingering convection over interior
areas at least into Monday evening. Otherwise, we expect partly to
mostly cloudy skies Monday night, with overnight lows in the lower
to mid 60s.

Shortwave ridging aloft may amplify a bit across our forecast area
by Tuesday. However, weak embedded impulses on the northern fringe
of the ridge axis may interact with a continued moist and
unstable airmass to aid in the development of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over interior
portions of our area Tuesday afternoon. Convection should quickly
diminish with loss of daytime heating, and we have a dry forecast
for Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday should range in the lower to mid
80s inland, with readings in the mid 70s to around 80 near the
coast. Lows Tuesday night should once again range in the lower to
mid 60s. /21
long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... It looks like we get a
break in convective activity on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
medium range guidance is in agreement with placement of a deep
layer dry and subsident airmass over our CWA along continued
shortwave ridging aloft. Mostly sunny and warm temperatures will
continue Wednesday with highs once again warming into the lower
to mid 80s inland, and mid 70s to around 80 near the coast.

Overnight lows Wednesday night continue to range in the upper 50s
to lower 60s inland, with mid 60s along the beaches.

The next system we will be monitoring closely will be a rather
deep upper level low that will move from the vicinity of the tx/ok
panhandles Wednesday, and eastward across the ks/ok/mo/ar
vicinity by Thursday. The 26.00z operational gfs/ecmwf show some
agreement with ejecting a potent shortwave trough northeastward
across the mississippi river valley Thursday, then across the
central gulf coast states Thursday night in advance of the upper
level low. Though there are some differences on timing, large
scale ascent will generally spread across our region Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening/night, with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms likely to impact our area during this
time frame. This system appears that it could bring a better
potential for severe weather across our area Thursday into
Thursday night given potential for the development of rather
strong level jet (35-50 knots of 850 mb flow), up to around 1000
j/kg of mlcape, and steep mid level lapse rates (7-7.5 c/km). We
may be looking at a potential for all modes of severe weather with
this system, and will continue to highlight in the hwo. There is
also a signal for potential of locally heavy rainfall Thursday
afternoon and evening. Storm chances should decrease from west to
east late Thursday night into Friday morning as the shortwave
trough moves east of the region, with a drier forecast on tap
Friday into Saturday. Temperatures remain warm through the
extended forecast period. /21
marine... Expect mostly a moderate onshore flow to continue over
the marine area through midweek as high pressure near the surface
becomes reestablish along the eastern seaboard combined with a
developing low pressure system moving east over the mid section of
the country. Seas at 2 to 5 feet early today will subside to 2 to
3 feet through midweek then build to 4 to 6 ft late Thu into fri.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mostly this
morning... Reforming again by Mon afternoon on Mon night. 32/ee

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... High rip current risk until 7 pm cdt this evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk until 7 pm cdt this evening for flz202-204-
206.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 6 mi44 min SSE 7 75°F 1019 hPa (+0.0)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 12 mi59 min 77°F 67°F
WBYA1 12 mi44 min 73°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 21 mi44 min S 8 G 9.9 74°F 69°F1019.2 hPa (-0.4)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 21 mi54 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 70°F4 ft1018.9 hPa (+0.0)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 22 mi74 min SE 11 71°F 1019 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi44 min SE 9.9 G 12 71°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 26 mi44 min ESE 13 G 15 70°F 1018.4 hPa (+0.0)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 27 mi44 min S 8.9 71°F 1018.6 hPa (-0.7)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 28 mi74 min S 8 73°F 1018.6 hPa
PTOA1 31 mi44 min 74°F 69°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 31 mi44 min S 9.9 G 12 72°F 69°F1019 hPa (-0.5)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 33 mi74 min SSE 8.9 1018.6 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 33 mi44 min 72°F 66°F1018.4 hPa (-0.5)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 43 mi59 min SSE 9.9 72°F 1019 hPa68°F
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 47 mi44 min 72°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 48 mi44 min S 8 G 11 76°F 1018.1 hPa (+0.0)
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 49 mi44 min SSE 7 G 9.9 73°F 1019.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL6 mi49 minSSE 1010.00 miOvercast74°F69°F85%1019 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL16 mi69 minS 710.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1019 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi48 minSSE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1019 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL23 mi51 minS 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F68°F69%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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NW4S6NW6CalmCalmCalmSE8S7SE7SE8SE7SE9SE9SE6S6SE8SE8SE10
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1 day agoE15
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2 days agoE12
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SE8SE9SE8SE9SE8E11
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G27

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:55 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:53 AM CDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:59 PM CDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:40 PM CDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:33 PM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.110.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.60.70.80.90.90.90.90.911.11.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:36 AM CDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:13 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:51 PM CDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:07 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.5-0.8-1-1.1-1.1-1-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.2-00.10.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.80.70.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.