Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:28PM Sunday April 30, 2017 9:56 AM CDT (14:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 504 Am Cdt Sun Apr 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Today..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west 8 to 13 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..West winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 504 Am Cdt Sun Apr 30 2017
Synopsis..Strong onshore flow and building seas will continue through today ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and Thunderstorms will become widespread today ahead of the front... With some of the Thunderstorms possibly becoming severe. Offshore winds will gradually diminish with subsiding seas Monday and Tuesday before onshore flow strengthens again mid to late week ahead of the next approaching system.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, AL
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location: 30.36, -87.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 301246 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
746 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017

Severe weather becoming likely today and tonight...

Elevated threat of flash flooding west of interstate 65...

Coastal hazards persist...

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Tornado watch #181 has been issued for all interior
southeast ms zones thru 3 pm and is now headlined in zones. The
storm prediction center is considering upgrading the day1 severe
weather outlook to enhanced over the northwest portions of local
area, west of i-65. /10

Prev discussion /issued 658 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... Mostly MVFR CIGS and visibilities through 01.00z
followed by mostly ifr CIGS and visibilities through 01.12z.

Lower CIGS and visibilities occur especially in and around heavy
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Some storms
may be strong to severe through this evening resulting in winds
from 35 to 65 knots. Outside of showers and thunderstorms expect a
strong southerly wind flow at 15 to 25 knots with frequent gusts
to 30 to 34 knots. With this a wind advisory is also in effect
through this evening. Winds begin to shift to the southwest and
west and gradually diminish generally after 01.09z. 32/ee
prev discussion... /issued 506 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017/
near term /now through Sunday night/... Early morning water vapor
animation and 500 mb height analysis show a deep upper level low
spinning in the vicinity of the tx/ok panhandles early this morning,
while surface analysis shows the associated surface cold front
moving eastward across far western portions of ar/la and into the
adjacent far northwestern gulf of mexico. Satellite, radar, and
lightning data show numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
developing across much of la and ar and into the mid-mississippi
valley region early this morning within the deeply moist and
diffluent flow pattern aloft ahead of the upper level low.

Conditions are relatively quiet for the time being across our
forecast area as of 4 a.M. Cdt, with areas of low stratus spreading
across the region in the warm and moist low level flow environment
ahead of the upper storm system and associated cold front. Winds are
still a little breezy at times near the immediate coast.

The deep upper level low is forecast to eject northeastward across
northern ok/southern ks this morning, before continuing to lift
toward the upper midwestern states this evening into late tonight.

The associated surface cold front will continue to push eastward
toward the mississippi river through the morning, then continue to
progress across ms/la this afternoon, before finally pushing across
our forecast area this evening through late tonight. The latest
short range model guidance, along with the wrf-arw and past few runs
of the hrrr lend confidence that the organizing squall line over
la/ar early this morning will continue to spread eastward across
southeast la and central ms by mid to late morning, before entering
our southeast ms counties by early this afternoon (perhaps around 1-
2 pm). A gradual eastward progression into southwest al should then
continue through the rest of the afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms may also develop ahead of the main line.

We will have pops quickly trending up to the likely to categorical
range across southeast ms and southwest al this afternoon, with
slight chance to chance pops farther east over the rest of the cwa.

Shear and instability parameters remain favorable for embedded
storms along the line to become severe this afternoon with a 40-50
knot low level jet ahead of and along the line, along with up to
1500-2500 j/kg mlcape. Rap forecast soundings also show some
curvature to the hodographs along with quite steep mid level lapse
rates (7.5-8 c/km) within an elevated mixed layer. Therefore all
modes of severe weather are possible today, including damaging winds
over 60 mph, large hail and a few tornadoes.

The line should make eastward progress toward the i-65 corridor late
this afternoon into early this evening, and some of the embedded
storms could continue become severe into south central al and the
northwest fl panhandle. We will also need to watch for a potential
re-developing round of strong to severe severe storms back over
southeast ms and southwest al this evening ahead of the approaching
cold front, so will continue to mention severe potential through the
evening hours, while keeping pops categorical. The severe risk may
begin to decrease/become more marginal after midnight as stronger
low level flow shifts east of the region, but still may have to
monitor for a few strong storms through the night.

Heavy rainfall will also be a concern today and tonight as very rich
moisture (precipitable water values increasing to around or just
above 2") will promote efficient rainfall producing storms. The
latest short term model guidance as well as guidance from wpc
continues to show the potential for heaviest rain roughly west of
the i-65 corridor, where storm total amounts of 2-4 inches with
locally higher amounts still look quite possible. Will have to
closely monitor for additional heavy rainfall as additional storms
develop along the front this evening/tonight following the daytime
round. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could lead to localized flash
flooding and will highlight an elevated flooding risk over our
western CWA in our local flood graphics, while keeping a limited
threat farther east for now. Highs today range from the the lower to
mid 80s inland and around 80 near the coast. Lows tonight in the
upper 50s over western areas behind the cold front, with lower to
mid 60s over eastern portions of the area.

In terms of other hazards, will continue the wind advisory across
the are today as southerly winds increase to 20-30 mph, with some
gusts between 35-40 mph possible in the gradient flow. The
persistent strong southerly flow, high period swell, and high tidal
ranges will continue to bring a high risk of deadly rip currents to
the local beaches through at least tonight. Surf heights are
forecast to range as high as 5-8 feet today. Minor coastal flooding
may also occur around high tide this afternoon as the persistent
southerly fetch continues, particularly in low lying areas as tides
average around 1-2 feet above predicted levels (which may equate to
the around or above 3 foot msl range near times of high tide). /21
short term /Monday through Tuesday night/... A lingering chance of
showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday morning in the
eastern zones before a cooler and drier airmass spreads across the
region behind the passing cold front. Clouds decrease through the
day with mostly clear skies expected by Monday night. Highs Monday
should range in the mid to upper 70s with lows Monday night
noticeably cooler in the lower to mid 50s inland with readings
around 60 near the immediate coast. /21
by early Tue main upper tough/upper low shifts north to the
western great lakes region leading to mostly a zonal flow aloft
across much of the deep south Tuesday and Tuesday night. At the
surface high pressure builds from the west settling over the north
central gulf states and forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night
leading to mostly sunny skies during the day on Tuesday and clear
skies Tuesday night. With plenty of sunshine expected on Tuesday
along with drier air advecting in from the west and northwest
daytime highs will climb to the lower to middle 80s for most
inland areas and the upper 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast.

With the drier air advecting across the region humidity levels
during the day on Tue will also range from the 25 to 35 percent.

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... By early Wed morning
next mid to upper trof begins to approach the central plains from
the west then digs across the central and lower plain states and
the mississippi river valley late Wed night through Thu evening,
then lifting north northeast across the the mid atlantic and new
england states Fri night and sat. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system with the best
coverage over the western half of the forecast area on Wed and
wed night then shifting over remaining areas during the day on
thu. By late Thu and into Thu night a strong cold front moves
across the region ushering in much drier and cooler air across the
forecast area both Fri and sat. At this time no significant
threat of severe weather is expected but these will be a chance
for some excessive rainfall possibly leading to some localized
flooding especially in areas with low terrain and poor drainage
occurring mostly on thu. As a result will continue to monitor
this upcoming situation closely for excessive rainfall later in
the week. Ahead of the front daytime temps on Wed will climb to
the lower to middle 80s for most inland areas and the upper 70s to
lower 80s closer to the coast. In the wake of the front daytime
temps will climb to the middle 70s for all locations on thu, lower
70s on fri, then rebound to the middle 70s on sat. Lows Wed night
will range from the lower to middle 60s, mid to upper 50s inland
and around 60 near the coast Thu night, and the upper 40s to lower
50s inland, and the middle 50s near the coast Fri night. 32/ee
marine... A strong onshore flow will continue ahead of an
approaching storm system and cold front through tonight, and small
craft advisories remain in effect through late tonight. Adverse
conditions are expected later today through early Monday morning as
a strong storm system brings the possibility of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of the front. The front should move east of the
region Monday, allowing conditions to gradually improve. Expect
diminishing offshore winds and subsiding seas for Monday and
Tuesday. An onshore flow will strengthen during the middle to latter
part of the week as another storm system approaches from the west.

/21

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... Wind advisory until midnight cdt tonight for alz051>060-261>266.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am cdt Monday for alz263>266.

High rip current risk through late tonight for alz265-266.

High surf advisory until 4 am cdt Monday for alz265-266.

Fl... Wind advisory until midnight cdt tonight for flz201>206.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am cdt Monday for flz202-204-206.

High rip current risk through late tonight for flz202-204-206.

High surf advisory until 4 am cdt Monday for flz202-204-206.

Ms... Wind advisory until midnight cdt tonight for msz067-075-076-078-
079.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt Monday for gmz650-655-670-
675.

Small craft advisory until 4 am cdt Monday for gmz630>635.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 6 mi56 min SSE 16 77°F 1014.6 hPa (+2.4)
WBYA1 12 mi44 min 77°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 21 mi66 min SE 21 G 25 76°F 75°F8 ft1012.8 hPa (+0.8)73°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 21 mi44 min SSE 13 G 19 77°F 76°F1014.7 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 22 mi56 min SSE 25 77°F 1013.5 hPa (+2.4)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi38 min SSE 22 G 26 77°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 26 mi56 min SSE 20 G 22 77°F 1013.1 hPa (+1.9)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 27 mi26 min SSE 16 78°F 1013.5 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 28 mi56 min SSE 20 78°F 1013.5 hPa (+2.0)
PTOA1 31 mi38 min 78°F 73°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 31 mi38 min S 15 G 21 77°F 76°F1014.5 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 33 mi56 min SSE 21 77°F 1013.2 hPa (+2.4)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 33 mi44 min 77°F 77°F1014.3 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 43 mi71 min SSE 20 78°F 1014 hPa73°F
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 47 mi38 min 78°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 48 mi38 min SE 14 G 20 79°F 1013 hPa
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 49 mi38 min SSE 18 G 22 77°F 1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL6 mi61 minSE 14 G 227.00 miOvercast77°F76°F98%1014.2 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL16 mi81 minSSE 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast77°F73°F89%1013.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi60 minSSE 19 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy79°F72°F79%1014 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL23 mi63 minSSE 20 G 279.00 miOvercast and Breezy79°F72°F79%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE15
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2 days agoS8
G18
SW11
G24
SW7
G15
S8SW12S7--S9
G14
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G15
S11S11S11S10
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G18
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SE10
G17
SE12
G21

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:45 AM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:03 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:36 PM CDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.100.20.40.70.91.11.41.61.822.12.22.11.91.61.310.70.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:09 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM CDT     2.26 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:42 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:43 PM CDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.1-0.6-0.10.511.41.82.12.22.32.11.91.510.4-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.7-2.1-2.2-2.3-2.2-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.