Wednesday, July26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Navarre Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:47PM Tuesday July 25, 2017 11:36 PM CDT (04:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:23AMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1014 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 25 2017
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet then 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1014 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 25 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue over the north central gulf through the week, leading to mostly a light to moderate westerly flow over the marine area throughout week. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and Thunderstorms throughout the week. Better rain chances are expected late in the week and over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navarre Beach, FL
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location: 30.37, -86.94     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 252329 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
629 pm cdt Tue jul 25 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00z issuance... Mostly MVFR toVFR CIGS and visibilities through
27.00z. Lower CIGS and visibilities mostly in and around isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the forecast
period. Could also see short periods of ifr CIGS and visibilities
in some of the stronger thunderstorms through the forecast period.

Winds will be mostly variable at 5 knots or less through this
evening becoming mostly north at 5 knots or less overnight through
wed morning. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 429 pm cdt Tue jul 25 2017
near term now through Wednesday ... Remnant mesoscale convective
vortex (mcv) from earlier convection is moving across south central
ms this afternoon, with scattered to numerous showers and storms
firing over much of interior southwest and south central al east of
this feature and also along axis of deep layer moisture under an
upper level trough stretching westward across the area. The upper
trough axis will remain in place across our area tonight, along with
associated precipitable water values between 2.0" and 2.25". Showers
and storms should become more scattered in coverage into this
evening, and will maintain 30-40% pops across the entire area
through 06z. The axis of deeper moisture gradually sinks farther
south toward the coast and adjacent offshore waters tonight, where
additional scattered development may occur during the overnight and
early morning hours. Coverage should be much more limited farther
inland. The upper level trough axis shifts eastward a bit toward
southern ga and northern fl Wednesday, as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds eastward from the southern plains to the
mississippi and tennessee valley region. A bit more subsidence and
slightly drier airmass will spread over our region Wednesday, but
with precipitable water values still lingering between 1.7 and 2.0",
will maintain a low chance of showers and storms (mostly in the 20-
30% chance) range over the area Wednesday with pops most favored
over eastern areas and closer to the coast. Temperatures should
trend warmer Wednesday, with highs forecast to reach into the lower
to mid 90s inland, and around 90 near the immediate coast and
beaches. Dewpoints in the 70s will result in maximum heat indices
between 100-105 degrees. 21
short term Wednesday night through Friday night ... Wednesday
night into Thursday night, the upper trough that has been
persisting over the forecast area the last few days moves off to
the east. An upper ridge centered just east of the rockies builds
a ridge east from over the southern plains to the lower
mississippi river valley. With this, a combination of a drier
airmass being pushed over the forecast area from the west along
with increased subsidence from the upper ridge dries out the area
as it brings temps well above seasonal. One last day of around
seasonal chance of rain occurs Thursday as the drier air begins to
push in, but with the increasing subsidence, temps well above
seasonal expected. A slight chance to chance of rain is expected
with lows Wednesday night in the low to mid 70s. Highs Thursday
in the mid to upper 90s are expected and with the driest air not
moving over the forecast area until late Thursday into Thursday
night, dewpoint values will be high enough to bring heat indices
generally rising into the 102 to 107 degree range.

The rest of Thursday night through Friday night... A shortwave
moves into the upper trough that has set up over the east coast.

Even with a decrease in moisture levels, guidance is advertising
enough vigor to bring a chance of shra tsra to the area late
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Lows Thursday and Friday night
remain around seasonal (low to mid 70s). Highs Friday are also
expected to be above seasonal (mid 90s), with subsidence form the
upper ridge combined with decent heating before the tsra fire.

long term Saturday through Tuesday ... A front associated with
the shortwave energy moving into the east coast trough pushes
across the forecast area late Saturday through Saturday night. The
gfs is advertising a stronger push with the front then the ecmwf,
pushing in a drier airmass behind. Both are consistent in timing
though, along with a chance of rain Saturday into Saturday night.

After, the GFS dries the area out for the rest of the extended.

The ECMWF is painting a more difficult to forecast picture. With
the less enthusiastic push behind the front, the front stalls just
south of the coast Sunday. More energy moving into the east coast
trough develops a weak surface circulation over the north-central
gulf Monday. With southerly flow east of the ms al state line and
northerly flow west, a pop gradient over the western half of the
forecast area results for late Sunday night into Monday night. As
the surface low dissolves, a surface ridge builds back west over
the northern gulf into Wednesday results, bringing back gulf
moisture to the area.

Fore the forecast, have consensus went with a toned-down ecmwf
solution. This results in highs around seasonal (around 90 to low
90s), with overnight lows in the low 70s, a bit high close to the
coast. Pops a bit below seasonal (lower to the west of the al ms
state line with the drier air) with the east coast trough shifting
west a bit (putting the forecast area in a less favorable position
for precip).

marine... A ridge of high pressure will gradually build
westward across the gulf of mexico through the week with light to
occasionally moderate west to northwest flow generally prevalent at
night and in the morning, and light to moderate west to southwest
flow during the afternoon and evening. The best coverage of marine
storms will mostly occur at night and during the morning, with
locally higher winds and seas and frequent lightning. Isolated
morning water spouts also remain possible. A slight increase in seas
is expected late in the period. 21

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 15 mi49 min 79°F 87°F1019.5 hPa
PPTA1 33 mi67 min WNW 4.1 80°F 1019 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi47 min NNW 9.7 G 9.7 81°F 83°F1 ft1019.2 hPa (+1.3)77°F
WBYA1 47 mi49 min 82°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 47 mi112 min 78°F 76°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 57 mi67 min NW 8 79°F 1019 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL14 mi43 minN 410.00 miFair76°F75°F97%1018.6 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair78°F73°F85%1019.4 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL20 mi41 minNNW 3 miFair77°F73°F88%1019.3 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL23 mi42 minN 410.00 miA Few Clouds78°F73°F88%1019.4 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi41 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds76°F73°F91%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW3W3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalm3W86W4N4SW10W8
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalm--W3NW5N5NW5NW7NW9W6W7W8W11SW9W10SW9SW8SW4CalmSW3CalmW3
2 days agoSW6CalmSW2CalmCalmCalm3W3CalmNW3NW3NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida (sub)
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Navarre Beach
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Wed -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:29 AM CDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:59 PM CDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
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Wed -- 01:00 AM CDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:22 PM CDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:18 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.