Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou La Batre, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:16PM Sunday October 22, 2017 12:27 PM CDT (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 8:28PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 1033 Am Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Choppy to rough becoming choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Choppy becoming a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning.
Monday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming north. Choppy.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Choppy becoming choppy to rough.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Choppy to rough becoming choppy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Thursday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Thursday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1033 Am Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to strong east to southeast wind flow will gradually become south and diminish by late this afternoon and early tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms can be expected with a few strong Thunderstorms possible, forming mostly along a developing squall line shifting east. In the wake of the front expect a moderate to strong northwest flow across the marine area through midweek. Small craft advisories will continue through mid afternoon.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou La Batre, AL
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location: 30.37, -88.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 221722
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1222 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
18z issuance... Main hazard to approaches and departures is
convective band moving east this afternoon over the mobile river
delta. Lowest cig bases to lifr categories. The passage of locally
+tsra brings brief strong wind gusts between 25 and 30 kts and
visibilities down to lifr to vlifr categories. 10

Prev discussion issued 1049 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Ongoing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms,
some with heavy rain, west of the tombigbee river will gradually
spread eastward throughout the day. Increased pops and QPF across
the western portion of our forecast through the early afternoon
hours and across the eastern portion of our forecast area during
the afternoon. This precipitation will still linger into the
evening hours, but still expect some decrease in our western zones
by midnight. Widespread total rainfall amounts through the event
should range from 2.5 to 4 inches, with the higher localized
amounts likley. Also updated to lower expected high temperatures a
couple of degrees for today as rain-cooled air and cloud cover
should keep temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the west,
with lower 80s across the east. Updates sent. 22
prev discussion... Issued 702 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... MVFR to ifr CIGS and visibilities through 23.12z.

Lower CIGS and visibilities mostly in and around scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms beginning this morning
continuing through 23.12z. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
will also be possible occurring mostly late this morning through
this evening. Damaging straightline winds, periods of very heavy
rain and isolated tornadoes will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms. Winds will be mostly southeast at 5 to 15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots, shifting south this evening then west to
northwest late tonight and early Mon morning. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 458 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017
near term now through Sunday night ... A sharp mid to upper trof
over the central plains and much of texas this morning will
continue to shift east with main trof axis just west of the
forecast area by 12z mon. Ahead of this upper system showers and
thunderstorms are expected becoming numerous to categorical by
late this afternoon and this evening, approaching from the west
mostly in the form of well defined squall line moving into extreme
western parts of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon, then
exiting to the east of the forecast area by early to mid morning
on mon.

Most of the current model guidance shows the best vertical ascent
or lift with this pattern occurring around 00z Mon or late this
afternoon going into the early evening hours generally located
from lower parts of mobile and baldwin counties in al including
mobile bay stretching north across clarke and wilcox co in al,
shifting east through Mon morning. At this time model guidance
suggests h8 winds increasing to around 25 to 30 knots, occurring
mostly over the eastern half of the forecast area this evening and
overnight combined with the right rear quad of a 90 to 100 kt
upper jet approaching from the west, though still located over
lower parts of ms and la which is somewhat out of phase with the
lower dynamics just mentioned. Model guidance also shows the lower
dynamics increasing over the eastern half of the forecast area
late this evening and overnight becoming a little more in phase
with the upper jet to the west suggesting the threat for some
severe weather continuing over much of the eastern half of the
forecast area through late this evening and overnight. As
mentioned earlier one other limiting factor for severe weather
will be marginal instability with surface based capes lowering to
the east as daytime heating decreases. The main concern will be
damaging straight line winds mainly along the squall line with
maybe some small to pea size hail.

Model soundings still show a rather moist column setting up with
pwats climbing to around 2 inches possibly leading to some
localized flooding especially in areas with poor drainage or in
the cities of mobile and pensacola. Due to the forward progression
to the east we will continue with just a limited risk for
flooding with the morning graphics. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches with maybe some localized amounts of 4 inches will still be
possible for most areas both west and east, starting late this
afternoon to the west then shifting east across remaining areas
through late this evening and overnight.

High temps today will range from the the upper 70s to lower 80s for
most areas with lows tonight ranging from the lower to middle 60s to
the west and the middle 60s to lower 70s to the east.

Some minor coastal flooding occurred yesterday mainly on the west
end of dauphin island around high tide due mostly to the poor
conditions on the west end from nate earlier in the month. Will
monitor this situation closely as we near high tide later in the day.

A high risk of rip currents will continue along the gulf beaches
of al and nwfl through this evening. 32 ee
short term Monday through Tuesday night ... The upper level
trough axis located in the vicinity of eastern mississippi and
western alabama early Monday morning is expected to translate
eastward into georgia and florida by late Monday afternoon. The
associated surface cold front will be pushing across central
portions of our CWA early Monday morning and should be east of
our region by late in the morning. The back edge of deep layer
moisture and ascent should be pushing into eastern portions of the
forecast area early Monday morning, before the much drier airmass
in the wake of the trough axis moves through all of our area by
around midday. We will maintain likely pops across far eastern
sections of the area through around 10 am Monday morning, with a
sharp decrease in pops then indicated through 1 pm, followed by
completely dry conditions through the remainder of Monday
afternoon. The upper level pattern will amplify tonight into
Tuesday as a deep trough is expected to carve across the great
lakes, the ohio and tennessee valleys and much of the deep south.

A deep layer dry airmass will continue to spread across our
forecast area on the base of this trough axis, and mostly clear
skies and dry conditions are expected Monday night through Tuesday
night. A reinforcing cool and dry airmass at the surface also
advects into our region through Tuesday night as high pressure
builds from the rocky mountains and plains and eastward toward the
central gulf coast.

Highs Monday are forecast to range in the lower to mid 70s over
much of the region, except upper 70s to around 80 degrees
expected across portions of the northwest florida panhandle. Lows
Monday night will trend cooler in the wake of the frontal passage
with readings in the lower to mid 50s over the interior and in the
upper 50s to lower 60s near the immediate coast and beaches. Highs
Tuesday range from around 70 to the lower 70s over the interior to
the mid to upper 70s over southern areas. Much cooler readings are
anticipated for Tuesday night with lows in the lower to mid 40s
over the interior and in the upper 40s to lower 50s near the coast
and beaches. 21
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... A dry northwesterly flow
pattern aloft is expected across our region Wednesday as the
longwave trough axis pushes toward the eastern conus. The mid
level flow flattens zonal by Thursday before becoming southwesterly
again late in the week ahead of the next deep upper level trough
digging across the central u.S. Cool and dry conditions will
continue over our forecast area Wednesday and Thursday as surface
high pressure builds eastward across the gulf of mexico central
gulf coast and southeastern states during this time frame. Highs
Wednesday are still only expected to reach into the mid 60s to
around 70 degrees, with lows Wednesday night falling to around 40
to the mid 40s over the interior, with upper 40s to lower 50s
along the immediate coast. Highs Thursday should trend a little
warmer, generally in the 70-75 range. A few showers may develop
over the region by Friday with a developing warm advection regime
underneath southwest flow aloft. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns Friday night into Saturday ahead of the
next approaching cold front. 21
marine... A moderate to strong east to southeast wind flow will
gradually become south and diminish by late this afternoon and early
tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected with
a few strong thunderstorms possible, forming mostly along a
developing squall line shifting east. In the wake of the front
expect a moderate to strong northwest flow across the marine area
through midweek. Small craft advisories will continue through mid
afternoon. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through late tonight for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through late tonight for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 3 pm cdt this afternoon for gmz650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 7 mi103 min SE 15 77°F 1018 hPa73°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 9 mi58 min SE 16 79°F 1018 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 9 mi58 min SE 19 79°F 1016.9 hPa
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 12 mi40 min SSE 12 G 17 76°F 1017.3 hPa
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 12 mi40 min 76°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 14 mi28 min ESE 16 G 18 79°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.8)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 15 mi46 min 75°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 15 mi58 min ESE 21 78°F 1016.6 hPa
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 15 mi40 min SE 17 G 23 76°F 1017.2 hPa
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 16 mi40 min SE 20 G 26 79°F 1017.2 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 17 mi40 min SE 21 G 23 80°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 23 mi40 min ESE 7 G 11 76°F 75°F1017.7 hPa
WBYA1 24 mi40 min 76°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 24 mi103 min 79°F 1018 hPa74°F
PTOA1 25 mi40 min 77°F 73°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 26 mi46 min 76°F 77°F1017.7 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 27 mi28 min E 6 78°F 1018 hPa (-0.3)
PPTA1 39 mi88 min 79°F 1018.3 hPa (-0.3)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 44 mi38 min SW 18 G 23 79°F6 ft1017.5 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Range A Rear, Port of Pascagoula, MS
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Last
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SE15
G22
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SE16
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NE5
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NE5
G12
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E16
G20
SE12
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E14
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G14
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E12
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G11
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G12
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G14
E15
G19
E15
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G22

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS15 mi35 minNNW 91.25 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Heavy Rain Fog/Mist71°F68°F90%1017.8 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL21 mi32 minN 65.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain Fog/Mist72°F70°F94%1017.5 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL22 mi53 minSE 8 G 1610.00 miOvercast77°F75°F94%1017.9 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL22 mi35 minESE 810.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain78°F75°F90%1018 hPa

Wind History from PQL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8SE16
G21
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SE10E9E9SE10
G15
SE7E5NE3NE3E4E3E3E3CalmNE4E5NE4E7SE8NW9
1 day agoE9NE5SE6NE7E5SE3CalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmNE4CalmE3NE3N3NE4NE4E4E8E9SE14
G22
2 days agoE7NE9
G14
E4NE6NE5E3CalmN3NE3NE3NE4CalmCalmCalmN3NE4NE3NE5NE4NE4E6NE7E8E10

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou La Batre, Mississippi Sound, Alabama
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Bayou La Batre
Click for Map
Sun -- 07:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:26 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:27 AM CDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:28 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.91.81.61.41.210.80.70.60.60.70.70.80.911.21.31.41.61.71.822

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:27 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:06 AM CDT     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:10 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:10 PM CDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:28 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.4-1.4-1.2-1-0.7-0.4-0.10.30.50.811.11.21.31.31.210.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.