Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madisonville, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:37PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 9:02 PM CDT (02:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:29PMMoonset 2:51AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 434 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 3 am cdt Thursday through Thursday morning...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Northwest winds near 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..West winds near 5 knots becoming south in the late evening and early morning, then becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 434 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis..A series of weak cold fronts will sweep across the coastal waters through Friday. High pressure will then settle over the coastal waters for the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madisonville, LA
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location: 30.38, -90.16     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 260138
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
838 pm cdt Wed apr 25 2018

Sounding discussion
The upper air release this evening was routine with no problems
encountered. The 00z sounding indicated that the atmosphere was
stable and still relatively dry despite some increase in overall
moisture from this morning. The precipitable water value was up
to 1.04 inches. A significant inversion was present in the 830 to
790 mb layer. North-northwest winds prevailed in the lower levels
with northwest to west northwest flow in the mid levels. West
winds were observed in the upper levels. 11

Prev discussion issued 356 pm cdt Wed apr 25 2018
synopsis...

latest surface analysis showed a 1018mb high over northwest gulf
of mexico and a cold front from the ohio valley to arklatex
region to central texas. Surface winds over the area were
generally northerly around the high and surface dewpoint readings
were in the 50s this afternoon. Upper air analysis showed a low
over north oklahoma with the associated trough axis positively
tilted to west texas. Southwest flow ahead of the trough axis has
increased moisture over east texas and arkansas. Precipitable
water values were 0.8 inch over louisiana and 1.25 inches over
central texas at 12z. Another trough axis was noted over montana.

18
discussion...

the upper level trough over the southern plains will dive
southeast tonight and Thursday. This wave will bring its own
moisture or the moisture ahead of the trough. Precipitable water
values will increase up to 1.4 inches late tonight. The trough
will reach the lower mississippi valley Thursday morning becoming
neutrally tilted Thursday morning and becoming negatively tilted
over alabama Thursday afternoon, north and east of our forecast
area.

This is a cold core system will have a core temp of -21f well
north of the area. Models have backed off with the cooler temps
at 5h sweeping across our north zones, now projecting -12f to -14f
over the north zones. Will maintain convection and coverage late
tonight with a slight decrease in coverage as the system becomes
neutrally tilted toward noon Thursday. Then dry air will behind
exiting trough will decrease rain chances Thursday afternoon.

Severe weather is not anticipated as stronger dynamics will remain
north of the area on late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

The next system will quickly dive southeast over the forecast on
Friday. We talked about moisture remaining limited for several
runs and GFS show a little swath of 1 inch precipitable water
value at 18z across the north zones, 0.2 higher than previous
runs. Model consensus show web bulb zero around 8kft over the
forecast area Friday, less time for melting hail stones if
present. Mid layer lapse rates 7h to 5h off of gfs, nam12 and euro
showed values of 6.8 to 7.5 c km, need around 7 c km or greater.

In addition, MUCAPE value between btr and asd at 18z is projected
around 1000 j kg, 1000 j kg is need for any hail formation. Flow
will be northwesterly throughout the sounding at 18z. With no deep
sheer, growth of hail will be difficult but sub- severe small
hail is possible on Friday and hazardous weather outlook has it
covered for now. Conditions will improve Friday night with a
pleasant dry weekend expected with seasonal temperatures. Next
chance of rain will be mid next week.

18
marine...

a relatively weak cold front slide through Thursday morning as a
weak upper trough tracks across the southeast. A surge of drier air
behind this front could push winds back to around 15 knots Thursday
morning and early afternoon. Its borderline whether an exercise
caution headline will be needed. Very progressive upper level
pattern will bring yet another frontal boundary through the coastal
waters Friday. This will push winds back to 15 knots over the open
gulf waters for Friday evening through early Saturday. Surface high
pressure will track from west to east across the southeastern conus
this weekend. This will cause winds to rotate around from NW to se.

Onshore flow regime will settle in for the first half of next week.

Wind speeds will gradually increase due to tightening pressure
gradient.

Meffer
aviation...

vfr conditions will dominate through the rest of this afternoon with
little in the way of cloud cover. A fast moving frontal system will
move into the region overnight. Showers with a few storm possible
will pass through from west to east from after 06z tonight and
ending during the mid to late morning hours. The main impact will be
lower ceilings, which could fall below 1kft.

Meffer
decision support...

dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: sandhill crane nwr outreach support
new orleans navy week support
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall; direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 57 70 51 74 60 20 10 30
btr 58 72 53 75 50 20 10 30
asd 59 73 53 75 30 40 10 30
msy 63 73 57 75 30 40 10 30
gpt 64 74 55 73 20 50 10 20
pql 64 74 52 75 20 50 10 20

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FREL1 23 mi45 min W 1 G 1.9 75°F 1013.2 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 25 mi45 min Calm G 0 76°F 75°F1014.1 hPa
CARL1 31 mi45 min 59°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi45 min SW 1.9 G 5.1 74°F 77°F1014.6 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 44 mi45 min NW 4.1 G 4.1 74°F 74°F1014.5 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 44 mi45 min W 4.1 G 6 75°F 78°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hammond, Hammond Municipal Airport, LA17 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair73°F59°F61%1013.9 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA18 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair73°F59°F62%1014.1 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA24 mi70 minWNW 310.00 miFair77°F59°F54%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from HDC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4CalmN7NW9
G15
N10N7CalmNW5NW3NW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5N6NW8W8W12
G18
NW8NW11NW12
G16
NW10N7NW9N7Calm
2 days agoNW7NW7NW5NW6NW3NW3NW4NW3CalmCalmW3W6NW8W9W10W11
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NW6N5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tchefuncta River
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:45 AM CDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 03:28 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:30 PM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:21 AM CDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:49 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 02:40 PM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.