Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:20 PM Moonrise 2:52 PM   Moonset 3:44 AM

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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 319 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
This afternoon - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Friday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Monday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 319 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis - A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails through Saturday night. A cold front will move through the marine area by Sunday night with offshore flow becoming prevalent into early next week.

FXUS64 KMOB 182349 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 649 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Another round of IFR to LIFR ceilings will spread inland from around mid-evening until a couple of hours past midnight and persist until around mid-morning Friday. Patchy to occasional areas of fog potentially reducing the visibility to IFR thresholds or lower at times between 08-14Z. VFR ceiling and visibility conditions will then return through the remainder of the forecast. /22

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Weak shortwave ridging embedded within zonal flow aloft continues to extend across the north central Gulf Coast region this afternoon. A surface ridge of high pressure also continues to nose westward across the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The combination of weak ridging aloft and moist southerly surface flow is allowing for warm and humid conditions across our region. Skies remain mostly cloudy this afternoon with abundant mid/upper level moisture spreading overhead. A few lower level cloud decks are also persisting along the coast.

The main weather impact of concern tonight will be the potential for patchy to areas of fog development, especially after midnight as light S/SW flow continues to bring rich low level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees into the area, while mid/upper level decks potentially decrease in coverage somewhat late. SREF probabilities of visibility less than a mile continue to increase, with some of the CAMs showing decent coverage of fog, some potentially locally dense, across central and southern portions of the forecast area. We have mention of patchy to areas of fog overnight into early Friday morning and will let later shifts assess visibility trends for possible advisory issuance. Fog should lift by 9 AM or so with another warm and humid day expected on Friday. A surface cold front should move into central portions of MS and into northwest AL by Friday afternoon before potentially entering or stalling over our far northern zones Friday night. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within zonal flow aloft may provide enough ascent to bring a small chance of light rain showers or possibly a thunderstorm over our far northern CWA Friday afternoon and evening ahead of this feature. Another round of patchy to areas of fog development will be possible again across much of our region Friday night. The surface boundary may push a little further south into interior portions of our area on Saturday. Increased deep layer moisture and ascent in association with a series of shortwave impulses should allow for more scattered coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, especially over interior areas north of I-10 on Saturday. Additional showers and storms may impact locations along and west of I-65 ahead of the next shortwave trough late Saturday night.

Lows tonight and Friday night should generally range in the lower to mid 60s over inland communities and in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the immediate coast. Highs Friday will be quite warm in the mid to upper 80s over interior locations and in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Highs Saturday may trend slightly cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows by Saturday night will fall into the 50s over interior southeast MS/southwest AL behind the front, and trend a little warmer in the lower to mid 60s near the coast.

A MODERATE rip current risk continues through Friday along area beaches and drops to LOW this weekend. /21

EXTENDED TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal flow will quickly become northwesterly in the wake of the subtle shortwave that will bring us rain during the day Sunday.
Sunday will be the only chance for rain as a very weak and subtle subtropical impulse will move across the westerly flow. This will lead to a rather small window of ascent over the area along the slowly sagging surface boundary draped across the area. Expect overrunning rain and maybe some thunder across the area Sunday morning into the early afternoon. The surface cold front will move offshore leading to drier conditions returning. Dry northwesterly flow will temporarily work its way into the area monday leading to a cooler and drier forecast through the middle of the week.
Behind the front temperatures will drop into the 70s for highs and 40s for lows before steadily increasing back into the 80s for highs and 60s for lows by Thursday. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

No significant marine impacts through the weekend as light to occasionally moderate onshore flow continues. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near thunderstorms Sunday. /21

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 66 84 66 84 61 71 48 75 / 10 0 0 20 20 70 10 0 Pensacola 67 81 66 81 65 75 53 76 / 10 0 0 10 10 60 20 0 Destin 67 78 67 79 66 75 56 75 / 10 0 0 10 10 60 20 0 Evergreen 63 86 63 84 58 71 46 75 / 10 0 0 30 20 70 10 0 Waynesboro 65 87 63 80 53 64 44 74 / 20 0 0 40 40 80 10 0 Camden 63 85 62 80 53 65 45 72 / 20 20 10 40 40 70 10 0 Crestview 63 86 62 86 61 77 48 77 / 10 0 0 20 10 60 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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