Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 8:25 PM   Moonset 6:28 AM

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GMZ631 Expires:202404242130;;283361 Fzus54 Kmob 240836 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 336 am cdt Wed apr 24 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz630>632-242130- northern mobile bay-southern mobile bay-mississippi sound- 336 am cdt Wed apr 24 2024
Today - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.Thursday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet.

GMZ600 336 Am Cdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis - A light and somewhat variable flow pattern will prevail through Thursday morning, especially near the coast. An onshore flow pattern will otherwise continue through the remainder of the week. The onshore flow will strengthen with a build in seas this weekend.

FXUS64 KLIX 241439 AAB AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 939 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

NEW UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 939 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Overall, ongoing forecast looks to be okay, so no near term changes to today or this afternoon. One minor changes was made overnight and especially early Thursday morning. Decided to add in some patchy fog respectively. Weaker low level flow and increasing low level moisture will help aid in at least some potential for fog. SREF is most bullish along and north of I10/12 and also west of I55 in Louisiana. (Frye)

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

It has been a much warmer night across the region but still cool compared to normal. By 8z most of the area had dropped into the 50s with lower to mid 60s right along the coasts. Moisture has increased some but dewpoints are still in the upper 40s to near 60. This should help keep any fog potential this morning down to a minimum and even if some fog does develop it will likely be very shallow.

The forecast for the rest of the work week is rather quiet. The only possible impact to mention is more of an aviation impact and that would be fog or low clouds. The LL winds aren't really strong enough to make me overly concerned for the low clouds Thursday and Friday and given the rather dry soil conditions any fog that may develop would probably be ground fog and thus very shallow and not much if any impact.

Mid lvl ridge begins to build in today and will dominate the region through the weekend. LL temps will start to increase in response with h925 temps likely around 17/18C and could be around 21C by Friday while h85 temps should approach 11/12C today and around 14/15C by Friday. Mixing dry adiabatically to these lvls only indicates highs in the 80s the rest of the week, 80-83 today and 82-86 possibly topping out around 87/88 in isolated areas on Friday. Just like yesterday the NBM is a little more bullish on highs than the other MOS products and given the LL temps being advertised am inclined once again to lean towards the MOS values.
That said there are a few small things that could lead to the warmer NBM. First is the lack of wind at least the next 2 days.
This would keep us from mixing as much and allowing the BL to inch up a degree or two more than anticipated. Second is the dry sfc conditions; it has been about 2 weeks since anyone has seen a really good wetting rain and the drier soil conditions could play in favor of the warmer NBM but those two caveats have a greater impact in the Summer and late Spring and it is still mid/late April. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

There hasn't been any major shifts in the thinking for the extended portion of the forecast. Medium range models in rather good agreement and both the consistency within the models and continuity between the models is about as good as you can ask for. What does this mean, well it should be a quiet yet warm weekend and rain likely returning to the region late Monday into Tuesday.

Ridge will dominate the region through the weekend. As the ridge holds firm across the southeastern CONUS through the weekend it will cause multiple disturbances to lift northeast across the Plains and into the Upper MS Valley. This will keep any rain out of the area and should lead to a rather warm weekend. There is a good chance that most of the area will see highs in the mid to even upper 80s. Saturday may have a good deal of cirrus in place as the subtropical jet streams across the region Friday night and through much of Saturday but by Sunday it looks to be in the Gulf while the polar jet dips across the 4 corners and then races to the northeast. That should help to lose what high clouds are over us and more sun. There is also a very small chance that some light, uhhh very light isolated to scattered showers could develop Sunday. This appears to be associated with a tongue of higher LL moisture streaming in from the SSE across the CWA But as soon as we lose the daytime heating any showers out there would quickly cease.

Heading into next week the ridge will finally break down. After holding off multiple disturbance over the weekend running into and over the western periphery of the ridge it will finally given in and along with the entire ridge slide east along the Atlantic coast and into the Atlantic. This will allow a mild/weak L/W trough to slide into and through the area late Monday and into Tuesday. This will also allow a weak cold front to push into the area but likely not all the way through and it will be these two features that help to bring some rain back into the region. Still not looking at much in the way of impacts yet as this doesn't have the sign of strong to severe weather. /CAB/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Patches of very shallow fog has developed this morning but only impacting GPT at this moment and is very low end MVFR vsbys. All terminals should be in VFR before 13z and likely to remain in VFR status through this evening. After 8/9z tonight there is a chance that patches of light fog begin to develop again with the tropical problem areas MCB/HUM and perhaps HDC and ASD seeing mild impacts.
MCB/HUM/HDC have the greatest potential and could even fall to IFR status but the probability of that happening is low at this time and will not indicate it yet. /CAB/

MARINE
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Benign conditions will continue through the work week as high pressure dominates the region. By this weekend winds will increase in response to a tightening of the pressure gradient. This will be cause by multiple surface low developing and moving northeast across the Plains this weekend and into next week. This should lead to some headlines being needed possibly as early as Friday night and into next week. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 80 58 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 84 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 83 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 81 65 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 79 62 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 82 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Wed -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:13 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:14 PM CDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM CDT     Moonrise
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