Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:20 PM Moonrise 3:46 PM   Moonset 4:12 AM

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GMZ633 Perdido Bay-pensacola Bay System- 356 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west late. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight.Saturday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely. Sunday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Monday - North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 356 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis - A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails through Saturday night. A cold front moves across the marine area on Sunday with a moderate offshore flow becoming prevalent into early next week. Winds begin to subside and start to turn easterly and then southeasterly by Tuesday.

FXUS64 KMOB 192334 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 634 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across the region at issuance time. Expect these conditions to prevail through the evening hours, with light southerly winds. Low stratus is expected to develop around midnight tonight and spread across the area during the overnight hours. Ceilings are anticipated to drop to IFR or LIFR tonight. Patchy fog may also develop late tonight reducing visibilities to MVFR or lower. Fog may briefly become dense a little before sunrise in a few spots. Fog should dissipate and low stratus should begin to lift by the middle to latter part of the morning. /96 /22

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Upper-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift eastward through the period. This will allow for zonal flow aloft to become more southwesterly by Saturday night and into Sunday.
Several embedded impulses are expected to move overhead throughout the weekend before the main shortwave digs in Sunday evening/night. At the surface, a cold front, currently located over the Tennessee River Valley, will continue to slowly push southward tonight, entering our CWA Saturday morning. This front is expected to stall somewhere around the I-65 corridor on Saturday and linger in place through early Sunday morning before finally being pushed offshore by a high building over the central US.

Except for a few isolated showers over our far northern counties, dry conditions are expected to continue through tonight. Rain chances begin to increase tomorrow morning as the front sags into our area and the first impulse moves overhead. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are anticipated by the afternoon for areas north of I-10. Subsidence from the ridge over the Gulf should help to limit rain chances near the coast. Looking inland, latest guidance suggests that some deep-layer shear will be present as the impulse moves overhead (0-6km shear of around 30 to 35kts), although shear values in the lower levels will remain rather weak (less than 15kts). This could still lead to a few loosely organized storms, or perhaps one or two multicellular clusters, especially considering the ample instability that will be in place. Modeled soundings suggest that areas south of the front could see SBCAPE values as high as 2000-2500 J/kg. Even areas north of the front could see elevated instability remaining in place, with MUCAPE values of around 1000-1500 J/kg. It should be noted that profiles do look to remain rather saturated, which could hinder the overall downdraft intensity of storms. That being said, cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms (particularly from cell mergers), capable of producing gusty to damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. Rain chances decrease by the evening hours as the first series of impulses moves away from the region.

The next set of impulses pass overhead on Sunday, helping to bring another round of rain to the area. With the front pushing into the Gulf during the early morning hours, the overall environment looks to remain rather stable. Therefore, only expecting an overrunning rain event with very little, if any, storms for Sunday. Rain chances begin to decrease from west to east by late Sunday afternoon as the upper-level shortwave trough begins to push into the area and drier air filters in from the north.

Warm conditions continue through tomorrow, with lows tonight only dropping into the mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s. By Saturday night and into Sunday, the temperature forecast becomes highly dependent on the positioning of the front. Current forecast calls for lows Saturday night to range from the low 50s in our northwestern zones to the low 60s in our southeastern zones. Similarly, highs on Sunday will range from the low 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast. A moderate risk of rip currents tonight will decrease to a low risk for the weekend. Lastly, patchy to areas of fog will once again be possible tonight. Fog could briefly become dense in a few localized spots. /96

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper level trough will move across the Tennessee Valley and adjacent Gulf Coast states Sunday night, before quickly shifting eastward across the southeast U.S. Monday. A dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will generally across our forecast area through much of the coming week behind this departing feature. Surface high pressure is forecast to build from the Plains to the Gulf Coast states early next week, with surface ridging remaining prevalent into Thursday. Shortwave ridging aloft will build over the forecast area by Friday. Temperatures will start off chilly Monday and Tuesday morning, with lows in the 40s over inland locations and in the lower to mid 50s along the immediate coast.
Highs in the 70s Monday and Tuesday should trend warmer in the 80s over most inland areas during the middle to latter part of the week (mid 70s to near 80 along the coast). /21

MARINE...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails through Saturday night. A cold front moves across the marine area on Sunday with a moderate offshore flow becoming prevalent into early next week. Winds begin to subside and start to turn easterly and then southeasterly by Tuesday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 66 82 59 66 46 73 49 76 / 0 30 30 70 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 68 81 63 71 51 73 53 74 / 0 20 10 60 10 0 0 0 Destin 69 79 65 72 54 73 56 74 / 0 20 10 60 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 64 83 58 66 43 72 44 78 / 0 50 40 70 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 64 78 51 61 42 70 43 78 / 10 50 60 70 0 0 0 0 Camden 64 78 53 61 42 69 43 76 / 10 60 60 70 0 0 0 0 Crestview 64 85 60 71 46 74 46 78 / 0 30 20 70 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:41 AM CDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:45 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:26 PM CDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Warrington
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Fri -- 04:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:45 AM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:45 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:22 PM CDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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