Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goulding, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:21PM Saturday April 21, 2018 2:26 AM CDT (07:26 UTC) Moonrise 11:05AMMoonset 12:19AM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1026 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 20 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1026 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 20 2018
Synopsis..A moderate easterly flow tonight will increase on Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. A moderate to sometimes strong southeast to south flow develops Saturday night ahead of the front. Winds become westerly in the wake of the front by Monday, with a light to moderate west to northwest flow then continuing into the middle part of mid next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goulding, FL
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location: 30.4, -87.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 210446 aad
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1146 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... Guidance continues to advertise a return of
easterly flow overnight, with a slug of moisture above the surface
moving over the area beginning after sunrise. The level of the
moisture has risen, with guidance advertising the base of the
moisture around 4k', and with a greater dewpoint depression. Have
bumped cloud bases upwards and delayed the low level clouds
moving over area TAF sites.VFR conditions expected the rest of
the night into Saturday as a result. Cloud cover increases
Saturday, but CIGS remain at or aboveVFR levels through the day
into the evening. The increasing moisture levels bring CIGS visbys
dropping into MVFR levels Saturday night, and may see low end
MVFR ifr conditions after the current package.

16

Prev discussion issued 1023 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... An update was sent to the forecast to lower overnight
low temperatures just a bit in a few spots as surface observations
indicate readings already near forecasted minimums as of 10 pm. We
are still generally expecting lows to range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s over the interior, with mid 50s to around 60 near the
immediate coast. Skies generally remain clear overnight, with the
exception of a few cirrus passing over mainly southern portions
of the area. 21
prev discussion... Issued 626 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... Surface high pressure well north of of the forecast
area will shift to over the east coast overnight, bringing a shift
in low level flow from northeasterly to easterly overnight, then
southeast by the end of the forecast. With the shift in winds to
easterly, guidance is advertising a slug of low level moisture
(centered around 950mb) moving over the area beginning around
sunrise. This will bring a drop in CIGS from generalVFR to mid
MVFR beginning around sunrise, the a rise back toVFR by 18z as
the boundary layer deepens and the moisture layer mixes out. Am
not anticipating any low end MVFR ifr CIGS visbys affecting
operations with this package.

16
prev discussion... Issued 353 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018
near term now through Saturday ... A shortwave upper ridge will
move eastward across the central gulf coast through Saturday. This
will allow for a slight increase in high temps Saturday, while
maintaining dry conditions. Meanwhile, southeasterly low level flow
will increase through the day as a cold front begins to approach
from the west. Moisture levels are expected to increase enough near
the coast for the possibility of a few light showers by the
afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s and low 50s
inland to upper 50s along the coast. Highs on Saturday will climb
into the low to mid 70s. 13
short term Saturday night through Monday night ... An upper level
low over the south plains pushes east into the lower mississippi
river valley and mid south Saturday night into Sunday. Upper
level height falls ahead of this system, in conjunction with upper
diffluence associated with the left exit region of a jet max
rotating through the base of the trough, will serve to increase
deep-layer ascent along and ahead of an attendant surface front. A
quickly moistening warm sector ahead of this front should see
enough destabilization (~500 j kg mlcape) to support showers and
thunderstorms, with the best potential for thunder coincident with
the greatest forcing and instability along the front and near the
coast. Veering deep layer wind profiles and effective bulk shear
magnitudes at or above 40 knots could allow any stronger cells to
become better organized and capable of producing severe weather.

Given the uncertainty in available instability, however, only a
marginal threat is in place at this time. Generally expecting
rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches with this system, with local
amounts up to 3 to 4 inches not out of the question. These totals
may not appear heavy at first glance, but it should be noted that
those who received significant rainfall with the previous system
(i.E., interior southeast mississippi and southwest alabama) are
likely to be more vulnerable to flooding than normal, as this
additional rainfall only exacerbates the already elevated rivers
and streams.

The cold front pushes through Sunday night into early Monday as
the upper low weakens and pushes off to the east, eventually
settling over the southeastern states Monday and Monday night.

The passage of this front should mark the end of precip for most,
particularly near the coast. Farther inland, could see some light
showers continue throughout the day Monday in the wraparound
region of the surface low. 49
long term Tuesday through Friday ... The upper low stalls over
the southeastern states as another quick-hitting shortwave rotates
through the region to start the long term period. Lingering
wraparound moisture over inland and western portions of the area
should be enough to squeeze out some showers as this shortwave
passes through Tuesday.

The first in a series of troughs digs from central canada
southeast into the upper mississippi river valley and midwest on
Wednesday, helping to finally push that stalled upper system over
the southeastern states east and away from the area. As the former
trough continues to dig into the eastern conus, it pushes another
cold front southeast towards the gulf coast. We see a bump in rain
chances along and ahead of that front Wednesday night before it
passes through and brings dry conditions Thursday. Dry weather
will be short lived, as the next in the series of upper troughs
digs into the upper midwest Thursday night. This pushes yet
another front towards the area, with moisture quickly returning
and rain chances increasing Friday ahead of the front. 49
marine... A moderate easterly flow tonight will increase on Saturday
as a cold front approaches from the west. A moderate to sometimes
strong southeast to south flow develops Saturday night ahead of the
front. Winds become westerly in the wake of the front by Monday,
with a light to moderate west to northwest flow then continuing into
the middle part of mid next week. 13

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 0 mi44 min E 5.1 G 9.9 71°F1021.3 hPa
PPTA1 20 mi56 min 64°F 1021 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 29 mi26 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 1020.9 hPa (-1.0)58°F
WBYA1 33 mi38 min 63°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 33 mi101 min 53°F 1022 hPa52°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 43 mi56 min E 6 62°F 1022 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 43 mi56 min E 8 62°F 1021.3 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 45 mi38 min E 7 G 8
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 47 mi26 min ENE 6 G 7 65°F 1021.2 hPa (-0.7)55°F
PTOA1 47 mi56 min 63°F 49°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 48 mi38 min ESE 13 G 16 67°F1021.6 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 49 mi44 min 65°F1021.6 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL5 mi33 minNNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F48°F65%1021.3 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi30 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F46°F54%1021.1 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi30 minENE 710.00 miFair56°F46°F70%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8
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N8N9N8N8N8NE7NE66Calm4556S6S6S4W3N4N3E43NE4N5
1 day agoSW6SW6SW7W8W7W9NW8NW9W6--NW12NW8
G14
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2 days agoSW5S6S5SW5SW5SW11SW16
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SW16SW15S12S10SW10SW7SW5SW8SW7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:19 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:46 AM CDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:09 PM CDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.41.51.61.51.51.31.10.90.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:37 AM CDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:50 PM CDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.60.91.11.31.51.61.71.71.71.61.41.20.90.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.