Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goulding, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:27PM Saturday April 29, 2017 12:30 AM CDT (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:03AMMoonset 11:08PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1030 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Seas 7 to 10 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1030 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 28 2017
Synopsis..Onshore flow is forecast to remain strong going into the weekend as a frontal boundary ejects eastward out of the plains Saturday into the lower mississippi river valley on Sunday. The strength and duration of the onshore fetch this weekend causes a building trend in seas. Small craft advisories are in effect. Showers and storms to increase in coverage late Sunday thru early Monday. Some of the storms could be strong to severe.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goulding, FL
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location: 30.4, -87.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 282345
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
645 pm cdt Fri apr 28 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
29/00z issuance... Well established southerly flow persists in the
near term with the main hazards to approaches and departures being
wind gusts from 25 to 30 knots at times, especially after around
29/03z this evening and continuing through the day on Saturday.

MVFR ceilings thru around 29/03z, lowering at times to ifr
categories overnight. Ceilings continue into the day on Saturday,
generally in MVFR range. 12/ds

Prev discussion /issued 308 pm cdt Fri apr 28 2017/
near term /now through Saturday/... Highly amplified pattern
evolves in the near term with downstream upper ridge from the
northwest caribbean, northward across the florida peninsula while
upper level storm system sharpens as it moves eastward out of the
four corners of the desert southwest by Saturday. Precipitable water
lowers a quarter inch or so to around 1 inch before trending upward
again through the day Saturday. At same time, a lead impulse over
east texas, ejects northeast out of the base of the long wave trof
position and approaches the central gulf coast during the afternoon
when instability would support a mention of isolated storms.

Pressure gradient force tightens between surface ridge off the
southeast us coast and lowering pressure over the plains resulting
in increasing southerly flow to wind advisory criteria along the
coastal zones on Saturday. The advisory may need to be extended
northward over the interior but would like to get another run of
guidance to assess mixing and low level wind strength before doing
so there. Strength/duration of southerly flow along the coast, long
period swell and spring tidal cycles bring multiple potential
problems along the coast, with a high risk of dangerous to
potentially deadly rip currents, high surf and runup over lower
lying areas near shore. Little change in temperatures, lows in the
lower to mid 70s. Highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 80s north of
the beaches. /10
short term /Saturday night through Monday night/... Things appear on
track from previous thinking with regard to Sunday's potential severe
weather event, but first, a brief mention of Saturday night. Due to
a lead shortwave, we may be dealing with left-over late afternoon
and evening convection. If so, deep-layer vertical wind shear and
instability will be greatest enough west of i-65 to perhaps have
a few multicells that may need to be monitored closely. Saturday
night will be very warm, humid and breezy as approaching system's
effects ramp up. Lows in the low and mid 70s.

From early Sunday through early Monday, region will be affected by
showers and thunderstorms, some severe, and especially west of
i-65 Sunday afternoon and evening (not so much east of i-65 at
this time). Up front, the amount of sfc-1 km MLCAPE and deep layer
vertical wind shear is sufficient to support deep mesocyclones,
most of which we will be embedded within a quasi-linear convective
system in the form of lewps\bows as it moves in from the west on
Sunday and then progresses to and through our eastern zones late
Sunday evening and overnight. The event will be rather prolonged
in nature in the sense that it will take a while to clear our
eastern zones (4 am- sunrise Monday). Areas west of i-65 will have
to be closely monitored for rainfall values exceeding flash flood
guidance as anomalously absolute values of moisture, moisture
flux and low- level warmth provide the impetus for deep and very
warm mixed layers which favor great pcpn efficiency in the warm
rain process. The current rainfall threat graphic depicts the
threat area nicely. [it is important to note that the main mid and
upper system tracks very far to our west and north (especially
compared to past few events) and that some of the main support
will be pulling away as the qlcs advances east of i-65 late
Sunday. We currently think the current day-3 outlook is hatched
about right given the weakening trend as the system approaches
late Sunday.] one additional thing we do see is that we have to be
on the lookout for a strong cold pool formation (due to
evaporational cooling) with the qlcs given that dry mid- level air
is advecting in sharply from the west right on the edge of the
deep-layer moisture Sunday. If the cold pool becomes dominant as
the deep-layer vws weakens, it could speed things along,
particularly along and north of highway-84 and east of i-65. As
the system exits, dry weather returns for Monday and into Tuesday.

Highs mostly in the 70s on Monday with overnight lows in the 50s
by Tuesday morning. Any lingering coastal flooding will cease
early Monday as winds shift offshore. Wind advisory conditions
will also be on the wane as the qlcs passes. /23 jmm
long term /Tuesday through Friday/... Continued dry with temperatures
in the lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Wednesday. After, prepare to get wet once again. The synoptic
situation changes quickly Wednesday as guidance hinting at another noteworthy
precipitation event through remainder of the period. At first, overrunning
precipitation develops on Wednesday and spreads northeastward over
the area during the ensuing 12-18 hours. This is quickly followed by
an approaching developing frontal system (which eventually becomes
cyclogenetic just east of our area by period's end) that will bring
a second dose of rain in the wake of the first. Rain is forecast
to end from the west on Friday as a blast of significantly cooler
and drier air is forecast to overspread the region either late
Thursday or early Friday. The timing of frontal passage is
uncertain within about 6-12 hours, so stay tuned. /23 jmm
marine... Onshore flow is forecast to remain strong going into the
weekend as a frontal boundary ejects eastward out of the plains
Saturday into the lower mississippi river valley on Sunday. The
strength and duration of the onshore fetch this weekend causes a
building trend in seas. Small craft advisories in effect. Showers
and storms to increase in coverage late Sunday thru early Monday.

Some of the storms could be strong to severe. /10

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... High rip current risk through late Sunday night for alz265-266.

Wind advisory from 6 am Saturday to midnight cdt Sunday night
for alz263>266.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am cdt Monday for alz265-266.

High surf advisory from noon Saturday to 6 am cdt Monday for
alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through late Sunday night for flz202-204-
206.

Wind advisory from 6 am Saturday to midnight cdt Sunday night
for flz201>206.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am cdt Monday for flz202-204-206.

High surf advisory from noon Saturday to 6 am cdt Monday for
flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 10 pm cdt Sunday for gmz630>635.

Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Monday for gmz650-655-670-
675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 0 mi43 min SSE 1.9 G 7 76°F 78°F1017.5 hPa
PPTA1 20 mi61 min ESE 9.9 76°F 1016.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 29 mi41 min ESE 16 G 19 75°F 75°F5 ft1015.9 hPa (+0.9)74°F
WBYA1 33 mi43 min 79°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 43 mi61 min SE 11 76°F 1016.6 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 43 mi91 min ESE 22 76°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.7)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 45 mi43 min SE 17 G 21 76°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 47 mi31 min ESE 17 G 20 76°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.0)
PTOA1 47 mi43 min 77°F 73°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 48 mi43 min SE 7 G 13 76°F 78°F1017.1 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 49 mi43 min 77°F 77°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL5 mi38 minSE 129.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1017.4 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi35 minESE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds76°F72°F88%1016.9 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi35 minSSE 1010.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1016 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S13S12SE13S12S12S13SE12S13S15S14
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1 day agoS16S15
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2 days agoSW5S5S6S7S8S9S11S14S15S14
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Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:01 PM CDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:07 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.20.40.60.811.21.41.51.61.61.61.51.31.10.80.50.30-0.1-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:42 PM CDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:07 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.50.70.91.21.41.51.71.81.81.71.61.41.10.80.50.2-0-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.