Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Volente, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:46PM Thursday March 23, 2017 9:17 PM CDT (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:31AMMoonset 2:32PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Volente, TX
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location: 30.43, -97.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 240000
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin/san antonio tx
700 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Aviation /00z tafs/
gusty winds will be the main forecast issue as a strong pressure
gradient and strengthening low-level jet ahead of tomorrow's front
keep s-se winds sustained at 15-25 knots gusting up to 35 knots
through this evening. Wind gusts will fall to 20-25 knots after 6-7z
as MVFR ceilings return to the i-35 sites and the low-level jet veers
at drt. A pre-frontal trough will briefly bring northerly winds to
drt from 10-15z before they become more w-nw gusting to 25 knots in
the afternoon, with drt most likely stayingVFR through the period.

This pre-frontal trough will cause a brief period of showers at the
i-35 sites between 13-16z. Thunderstorms are possible, but for now
have left this out of their tafs as daytime heating and related
instability will be too low to overcome a cap that should suppress
widespread thunderstorm development. However, if this feature is
delayed the chances for thunderstorms will increase.VFR conditions
should return by 18z at the i-35 sites, with winds becoming SW around
15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots before becoming more w-nw behind the
synoptic front Saturday morning just beyond the TAF period.

Prev discussion /issued 334 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
short term (tonight through Friday night)...

strong wind gusts have extended east of the advy area into the i-35
corridor, and sustained winds are on the cusp of reaching advy
criteria. Mixing occurred early along i-35 as opposed to out west, so
perhaps winds are topping out about now. Will leave the advisory as
is and hand off the dilemma to the next shift. Winds are expected to
relax late tonight as the surface low over the high plains to the
north tracks east. Models show good consistency in bringing a broken
line of mostly weak convection through the northern 2/3 of the
forecast area late tonight into Friday. A low cape/high shear
environment and a modest amount of moisture for spring standards
should make this round of convection mostly garden variety, but areas
near and to the east of aus by midday Friday could be able to tap
into slightly deeper moisture and with a more robust afternoon
convection. The SPC outlook remains reasonable for a low end slight
risk day for the eastern counties, but mesoscale model runs such as
the tx tech WRF suggest the deeper convection and severe threat
should be less than the areas of n-central & E tx.

Post frontal drying will be efficient with downsloping westerly
winds, but the mid-level low pressure being well to the north may not
mix the gusty winds from aloft to the surface as much as they are
expected to the WFO counties to the north. A fire weather watch is
for now, just north of our counties, and this may need to be reviewed
in more detail as we begin to see the strength of the surface to 850
mb winds in upcoming model runs. The potential for a low-end rfw
event should be mainly NW of a drt to t82(fredericksburg) line.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)...

good drying from Friday's strong central plains storm could leave
Saturday morning with the coolest morning of the next week,
especially over the NW counties. Coastal plains counties may fail to
lose all the shallow moisutre. Moisture return will resume Sunday but
not fast enough to bring a significant rain chance as a
shallow/smaller upper disturbance passes through the central plains
Sunday night. The progressive pattern aloft could keep the nocturnal
jet active, so some low-end convection (primary rw, isolated trw)
looks reasonable for some northern counties Sunday night. While the
frontal wind shift in the wake of the Sunday system is weak, winds
will not shift to southerly but rather to the east in the advance of
a much deeper trough/upper low that reaches tx by Wednesday. This
system remains poorly agreed upon by deterministic solutions, with
the GFS running slowest/wettest and the cmc running fastest/driest.

Feel a ecm type middle ground solution will narrow the window in
future with a trw likely type period Wednesday into Wednesday night;
for now will keep with the blended population schemes until the
model trends show more consistency.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Austin camp mabry 66 83 56 83 59 / 20 70 0 0 0
austin bergstrom intl airport 65 82 54 82 56 / 20 70 0 0 0
new braunfels muni airport 65 84 54 83 57 / 20 60 0 0 0
burnet muni airport 62 83 50 80 56 / 30 60 0 0 0
del rio intl airport 61 86 53 86 59 / 20 - 0 0 0
georgetown muni airport 65 81 52 81 56 / 20 70 - 0 0
hondo muni airport 64 86 51 86 57 / 20 40 0 0 0
san marcos muni airport 66 83 54 83 57 / 20 70 0 0 0
la grange - fayette regional 66 80 58 82 59 / 10 70 20 0 -
san antonio intl airport 65 84 55 85 59 / 20 50 0 0 0
stinson muni airport 65 85 55 86 59 / 10 50 0 0 0

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories
Wind advisory until midnight cdt tonight for the following
counties: bandera... Bexar... Blanco... Burnet... Caldwell... Comal...

edwards... Gillespie... Guadalupe... Hays... Kendall... Kerr... Kinney...

llano... Real... Travis... Val verde... Williamson.

Mesoscale/aviation... Lh
synoptic/grids... Hampshire
public service/data collection... Williams


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX6 mi23 minSSE 12 G 2510.00 miFair72°F47°F42%1014.2 hPa
Austin City, Austin Camp Mabry, TX11 mi27 minSSE 7 G 2310.00 miFair73°F53°F50%1013.7 hPa
Austin Executive Airport, TX18 mi23 minSSE 10 G 1910.00 miFair72°F53°F53%1014.6 hPa
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, TX21 mi25 minSSE 20 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy73°F55°F55%1013.5 hPa
Georgetown, Georgetown Municipal Airport, TX21 mi28 minSSE 12 G 2010.00 miFair73°F48°F41%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from RYW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S7S5S9
G17
--S8
G17
S7
G15
S10
G15
S9S8
G15
S6S12
G18
S12
G16
S19
G28
S15
G25
S12
G22
S18
G28
S20
G30
S16
G23
S16
G27
S10
G30
S15
G27
S13
G21
S10
G21
1 day agoS6S7S8S7
G17
S7SW5S8SW9
G15
S11SW6SW4
G16
S4SW5S3SE6S9S8
G15
S9
G18
S11
G16
S10
G16
SE9S9
G17
SE9
G14
SE5
2 days agoS6S6S7S7S6S7SW6SW6SW4S7SW4S7SW6S11
G17
S12
G20
S8
G17
SW5S4
G16
S7
G15
S9
G19
S9
G16
S7S6S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.