Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Volente, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:07PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 9:31 AM CDT (14:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 6:25PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Volente, TX
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location: 30.43, -97.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 251109
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin/san antonio tx
609 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017

Aviation discussion For 12z TAF period...

seeing MVFR CIGS building across the i-35 corridor as anticipated
this morning. Expect this deck to lower to ifr for the ksat/kssf
terminals in the first hour of the taf. Kaus will come very close to
the 1kft level so will need to be closely monitored this morning for
a potential amendment to ifr. Improvement toVFR is expected to be
pretty rapid around the 15-16z time frame this morning. Then breezy
winds will be the main impact to terminals. A return to MVFR cigs
expected for the i-35 terminals late this evening is also expected.

Prev discussion /issued 422 am cdt Tue apr 25 2017/
short term (today through Wednesday)...

big story today and tomorrow will center on the well-above normal
temperatures and the windy conditions. Readings will be 8-12f
degrees above normal as a dryline shifts through the region. This
dryline/front will shift through the entire area Wednesday, bringing
windy and critical fire weather conditions.

A broad longwave trough is currently deepening across the western
conus per water vapor satellite channels and rap analysis. This
trough is aiding surface cyclogenesis across north texas supporting
strong surface to h7 south to southwest winds. The tightening
pressure gradient in this layer is already being reflected in
elevated 15 mph surface winds this morning with kewx radar vad wind
profile indicating near 40 to 50 knots at 2 to 3 kft above the
ground. The question will be will these winds be able to translate
down through mixing late this morning/afternoon that result in
sustained winds greater than 25 mph? While wind gusts to 30 mph will
be likely, feel the sustained winds >25 mph could be difficult. Will
hold off on a wind advisory for now but if higher winds start
occurring by mid-morning, it is quite possible for a short duration
wind advisory to be issued.

A dryline situated across the big bend is expected to shift east
through the day today to at least the i-35 corridor. Much drier and
warmer 925-850mb air will move in behind this boundary and allow for
a rapid surface warm up. Much of the area will be above normal with
highs in the upper 80s east to mid to upper 90s west. No records are
expected. Thankfully, a strong enough cap, weak forcing, and limited
moisture along and east of the dryline will quell any shower or
storm potential today.

By Wednesday, the dryline retreats west initially overnight and then
shifts much farther eastward through the entire region by early
afternoon as the mid and upper trough sharpens over the south-
central plains. Strong west winds of 20 to 30 mph will be likely
Wednesday. This wind combined with the very dry air (dewpoints in
the 20s west to 40s east) will result in critical fire weather
concerns along and west of the us hwy 281 corridor with elevated fire
conditions for the remaining areas. A red flag warning and a wind
advisory will need to be monitored for on Wednesday. Temperatures
will cool slightly out west but central and eastern areas will remain
hot before the slight cool down Thursday morning with the drier air
in place.

Long term (Thursday through Monday)...

despite the cooler morning Thursday, the heat will be back on late
week with increasing rain chances (20-40%) over the weekend as
another trough pivots across the central conus. Models are in
moderate agreement but finer scale details (see below) remain
incongruent on just how enhanced the rain/storm signals will be late
Saturday into Sunday when a stronger front is advertised to move
southward.

Thursday will start cool and finish warm with near normal readings.

However, a big warm-up occurs again Friday as south/southwest flow
develops in advance of a strengthening trough over the western us.

Low-level moisture is advertised to return in earnest Friday and
with temperatures expected in the upper 80s to low 90s, CAPE values
along with lapse rates are progged to be quite high. While shear
appears to be low, will need to watch closely for the potential of
isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. A weak cap appears to be in
place at this time (and this should win out) but if a storm was to
break through, it could go strong/severe quickly. Stronger forcing
and height falls will occur over north and west texas Saturday
morning that should initiate convection and shift into the red river
valley in NE texas. Much of this activity looks to remain north of
the area but as the trough axis shifts across north texas Saturday
morning, it will also shift the dryline into the region. Isolated/
scattered showers trapped under the cap may be ongoing Saturday
morning but by the afternoon, the cap could erode just enough along
and east of i-35 to aid in thunderstorm development. Areas along and
east of this environment could be favorable for isolated
strong/severe storms. The location of the troughing and dryline
indicate that rainfall will not be widespread over the region but
confined to areas just along it and east.

By Sunday, the main trough axis will shift east and bring a secondary
cold front from the north. The big question at this stage will be
where is the dryline when the front moves south? Ec has the dryline
farther west - allowing more moisture pooling ahead of the stronger
front. The GFS is farther east with the dryline and has moisture
confined to coastal plains with less rain coverage than ec depicts.

Have placed 30-40% chances for late Saturday to early Sunday
timeframe and will monitor for better agreement to refine timing and
chances. Both models do clear the stronger front south and east Sunday
afternoon with cooler and dry conditions likely early next week.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Austin camp mabry 88 71 90 54 86 / - 10 10 0 0
austin bergstrom intl airport 88 71 90 52 85 / - 10 10 0 0
new braunfels muni airport 88 70 90 52 86 / - 10 - 0 0
burnet muni airport 89 67 84 49 84 / - 10 - 0 0
del rio intl airport 98 68 89 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
georgetown muni airport 88 70 87 52 84 / - 10 10 0 0
hondo muni airport 92 66 90 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
san marcos muni airport 88 70 90 52 86 / - 10 10 0 0
la grange - fayette regional 86 72 90 52 86 / - 10 10 0 0
san antonio intl airport 89 70 90 54 87 / 0 - - 0 0
stinson muni airport 90 70 90 54 88 / 0 - - 0 0

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Mesoscale/aviation... Tb3
synoptic/grids... Allen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX6 mi37 minSSW 8 G 1510.00 miOvercast67°F63°F89%1004.4 hPa
Austin City, Austin Camp Mabry, TX11 mi41 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast68°F64°F87%1003.3 hPa
Austin Executive Airport, TX18 mi37 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast64°F64°F100%1004.4 hPa
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, TX21 mi39 minS 710.00 miOvercast68°F64°F87%1003.2 hPa
Georgetown, Georgetown Municipal Airport, TX21 mi42 minS 15 G 1910.00 miOvercast66°F60°F83%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from RYW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE8S8
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1 day agoN12
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N7N10NE4NE6NE5NE4E4E5E5SE4CalmCalmS3S4W4SW4S3S4
2 days agoN8N8N9
G14
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N5N5N5N5N11
G18
N8N6N5N5N7N6NW5NW6NW7N7
G14
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.