Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 5:40PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:29 PM CST (22:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:05PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 350 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst Thursday...
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Areas of dense fog. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers. Areas of fog after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 350 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis..A moderate onshore flow will continue this evening becoming light Thursday through Friday night. Expect increasing onshore flow late Saturday and Saturday night as a front approaches from the west. This next cold front is expected to push east across the marine area by Sunday with a moderate to strong offshore flow developing in its wake. Areas of fog, dense at times, will likely continue over the near shore coastal waters and areas bays through the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, FL
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location: 30.45, -86.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 202221
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
413 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019

Near term now through Thursday The window for any severe
weather is closing quickly late this afternoon as upper dynamics,
support begins to lift away from our forecast area. Could still see
an isolated strong to severe storm over our far northwestern zones,
but that threat is diminishing rapidly. Plenty of low level shear
and instability, but soundings show a very moist profile and also
some capping over most of our area (especially down near the coast
where marine layer influences exist), both of which have limited
the severe threat over our area today.

For tonight, both global and short term hi-res models indicate that
the frontal boundary just to the west of our forecast area late this
afternoon will drift east into our area, but becoming stationary
near or just north and west of the i-65 corridor late tonight. This
boundary will remain nearly stationary, or more likely begin to lift
back to the north as a warm front on Thursday. Forcing aloft along
this frontal boundary will be weakening as weak mid upper level
ridging develops. As a result, no continuing severe threat expected
tonight, and the chances for heavy rainfall has also decreased
slightly. There will still be some persistent rainfall along and
north of the frontal boundary overnight, and some locally heavy
rainfall could occur, especially along and north of camden, grove
hill, leakesville line. Rainfall totals of 1 to 1.5 inches are
generally expected, with the highest amounts up toward choctaw and
wilcox counties. But, some localized amounts up to around 2 inches
will be possible. We will maintain a limited threat of flash
flooding for that area through very early Thursday morning.

On Thursday, rain chances will decrease slightly as the front lifts
back to the north and nearly all of the forecast area will be in the
warm sector south of the boundary. Still expect scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms and warm, muggy conditions for most
locations. Maybe a tad cooler up toward wayne and choctaw counties
as they may still be just to the north of the frontal boundary
through about midday. Cloudy skies will continue through Thursday.

South to southeasterly flow will maintain high dewpoints across the
region, mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Went above MOS guidance for lows tonight, ranging from the mid 50s
north to the mid 60s south. Highs Thursday in the mid and upper 70s
over much of the forecast area, but mid 60s far northwest.

With the warm and moist southerly flow over near shore water
temperatures still in the upper 50s in some cases, dense fog will
continue to be likely tonight into early Thursday. Dense fog
advisories are already in place for near shore coastal waters and
bays, as well as southern half of interior forecast area through
tonight. 12 ds

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night An upper ridge
stretches north along the eastern seaboard through the period. A
series of passing upper shortwave systems get directed northeast as
they move over the southern plains by this ridge, remaining
northwest of the forecast area. The first shortwave system passes
Thursday night into Friday night, and in combination with a surface
ridge building west over the northern gulf coast, shifts a stalled
surface front over the forecast area north of the area, restoring
moist southerly flow over the area. Rainshowers along and north of
the retreating boundary will shift north with the northward shifting
surface boundary, and the highest pops remaining along and north of
the boundary. Temperatures rise to well above seasonal levels, with
the east coast upper ridge maintaining its control. Daytime highs in
the upper 70s to around 80 are expected Friday, with overnight lows
in the 60s Thursday and Friday nights.

Fog development is expected Thursday and Friday nights. With warm
moist gulf air flowing over cooler near shore gulf and bay waters
having temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s, fog development is
likely, with a chance of dense fog being possible, especially closer
to the coast. Have put areas of fog in these areas for now.

Saturday into Saturday night, a stronger shortwave trough moves over
the plains and passes well northwest of the area. A trailing cold
front from this system moves across the area Saturday night.

Guidance varies on the amount of instability ahead of the front
Saturday. Enough wind shear for a few strong to marginally severe
storms is possible Saturday into Saturday evening, but the
instability is expected to be limited, limiting the chance of severe
weather. At this point, a few strong to marginally severe storms
will be possible, but do not feel an organized severe event is
likely. Temperatures Saturday remain above seasonal ahead of the
approaching front, rising to around 80. Saturday night, temperatures
begin to fall as cooler air moves over the area, but with the
relatively weak nature of the coming cold front, lows Saturday night
(generally in the 50s) are again expected to be above seasonal
norms.

16

Long term Sunday through Wednesday The upper flow becomes zonal
over the southeast Sunday into the weekend, with cooler drier air
overspreading the forecast area. Temperatures around seasonal norms
are expected Sunday through Monday.

Monday night through Wednesday, surface high pressure passes north
of the area and moves off the eastern seaboard, bringing southerly
flow back to the region by Tuesday. An increasing coverage of
isentropic upglide rainshowers and few elevated thunderstorms
Wednesday is expected. Temperature rise back to above seasonal
norms, but the increasing rain and cloud cover will help to temper
the rise. Highs in the mid to upper 60s expected with lows rising
back into the 50s by Tuesday night.

16

Marine A moderate onshore flow will continue this evening with
exercise caution conditions, but become light Thursday through
Friday night. Expect increasing onshore flow again by late Saturday
and Saturday night as a front approaches from the west, with
exercise caution conditions redeveloping. This next cold front is
expected to push east across the marine area by Sunday with a
moderate to strong offshore flow developing in its wake. Winds and
seas will likely be approaching small craft advisory conditions,
especially offshore, by late Sunday into Monday. Areas of fog, dense
at times, will likely continue over the near shore coastal waters
and areas bays through the remainder of the week before the front
arrives. 12 ds

Preliminary point temps pops
Mobile 65 76 63 80 66 81 55 68 60 50 40 30 10 50 60 20
pensacola 68 75 63 79 66 80 59 68 40 50 30 20 10 40 60 30
destin 67 71 63 77 65 76 62 68 40 50 20 20 10 30 60 30
evergreen 65 78 62 84 63 82 57 68 60 50 30 30 20 40 70 20
waynesboro 55 67 59 82 64 82 50 65 80 60 50 40 20 60 60 10
camden 57 75 60 83 63 82 53 66 80 60 40 30 20 50 70 10
crestview 67 77 63 82 63 82 59 70 40 50 30 20 10 30 60 30

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for alz055>060-
261>266.

High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for alz265-266.

Fl... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for flz201>206.

High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for flz202-204-
206.

Ms... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for msz078-079.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for gmz630>636-650-
655.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi59 min S 11 G 14 69°F 62°F1014 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 43 mi49 min SSE 12 G 14 68°F 1014 hPa67°F
WBYA1 48 mi59 min 66°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 48 mi104 min 74°F 1013 hPa71°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 49 mi89 min S 13 55°F 1012.9 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi93 minSE 11 G 151.50 miFog/Mist67°F66°F96%1014.4 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi36 minSSE 111.00 miFog/Mist71°F69°F94%1014.3 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL18 mi33 minS 102.00 miFog/Mist71°F71°F100%1013.1 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL20 mi33 minS 133.00 miFog/Mist71°F71°F100%1013 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL21 mi91 minSSE 122.25 miFog/Mist69°F69°F100%1015.2 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi33 minS 70.25 miFog69°F69°F100%1013.9 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi36 minSSE 92.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F97%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10
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1 day agoNE11NE9NE11NE14
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2 days agoS6S6S6S7S6S7S8S6SW6SW5NW4N17NE9N14N15--N18
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Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:23 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:17 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:09 AM CST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:05 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.210.80.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.40.50.70.91

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:23 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:11 AM CST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:05 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:05 PM CST     0.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10000.10.20.40.60.70.80.90.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.