Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 4:49PM Sunday November 19, 2017 6:05 AM CST (12:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:08AMMoonset 7:01PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 336 Am Cst Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cst this morning through late tonight...
Today..North winds 25 to 30 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 5 feet.
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northeast 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 18 to 23 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming north. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 336 Am Cst Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis..Strong offshore following a frontal passage overnight will gradually settle through the day into this evening. Surface high pressure passes north of the area late tonight through Monday, bringing a switch in the offshore flow to onshore by Monday night. A system developing over the central gulf moves northeast, bringing a return of offshore flow Tuesday through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, FL
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location: 30.45, -86.92     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 191126 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
526 am cst Sun nov 19 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12z issuance... Moderate northerly flow will ease through the day
as surface high pressure moves east from the central plains. Light
northerly winds expected tonight, withVFR CIGS visbys through the


Prev discussion issued 459 am cst Sun nov 19 2017
near term now through Sunday night ... Several pieces of shortwave
energy over the eastern CONUS continue to push a strong front south
over the central gulf of mexico. A trailing shortwave pushes surface
high pressure from over the plains to over the appalachians into
Tuesday. The initial northerly push will continue to bring wind
advisory level winds to area along the coast and large coastal bays.

With the quick eastward movement of the upper dynamics, am expecting
winds to settle below advisory levels this morning, then even more
tonight as land areas come under the influence of surface high
pressure. Today's strong northerly push will bring significantly
colder air to the area (read highs today in the upper 50s north to
low to mid 60s along the coast). Add in winds settling and clear
skies tonight, good radiational cooling will allow temps to drop to
well below seasonal levels. Have upgraded the freeze watch over
northern parts of the forecast area to a freeze warning, and with
that, temps 32f or low are expected along and north of a janice,
mississippi to brantley, alabama line. South of this line, temps
generally in the mid 30s expected, with a few "hot-spots" of near 40
along the coast. 16
short term Monday through Tuesday night ... High pressure continues
to slowly drift across the southeast early in the week and departs
off the coast into the western atlantic overnight Monday and early
Tuesday. Monday will be dry with light winds as surface high
pressure remains draped across the region. Despite the cold start
to the day on Monday, temperatures will struggle to hit 60 for
locations west of i-65, while temperatures should rebound into the
low 60s east of i-65. Another chilly night with lows dipping into
the upper 30s to low 40s for inland locations while closer to 50
at the beaches.

An amplifying upper level trough dives across the midwest and great
lakes region early Tuesday. The surface low associated with this
deep upper level trough will swing a weak cold front down through
the plains and mississippi river valley region on Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, models are also hinting at the formation of a weak
surface low southeast of our marine area over the northeastern
gulf. Moisture begins to spread across the southeastern portion of
the area early Tuesday morning in response to the aforementioned
features. Temperatures will respond to the increase in moisture
and will rise into the mid to upper 60s during the day. Light rain
showers are possible across the southeastern portion of the area
by Tuesday evening. Lows on Tuesday night will only dip into the
mid to low 40s west of i-65 with upper 40s and low 50s east of
i-65. 07 mb
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... An upper level trough
amplifies early in the long term as it swings across the gulf of
mexico. As this occurs, another surface low appears to develop
well south and east of our marine waters over the eastern gulf
early on Thursday. Run to run consistency is still lacking at this
point (to say the least) as each run of the GFS and euro seem to
flip back and forth as to which model produces the stronger
surface low and higher rain chances. The eventual location of the
this surface low will be the driving factor in the precipitation
forecast. The 00z euro shows a cut-off low forming in the upper
levels and down at the surface, while the GFS shows the formation
of a much weaker surface low. Maintained a slight chance of rain
across the southeast portion of the area through the day and
evening on Wednesday, although the bulk of the precipitation
should remain south and east of the area.

An upper level ridge begins to slowly slide east toward our local
area late in the week as high pressure at the surface builds back
into the region. A dry forecast is likely during the latter part
of the week, including thanksgiving. High temperatures will
generally rise into the 60s throughout the week. Saturday should
be the warmest day as highs will top out in the upper 60s and
possibly 70 in a few spots. Lows in the 30s to 40s each night.

07 mb
marine... Very strong offshore flow that has moved over area coastal
waters will settle rather quickly today into tonight as surface high
pressure gets pushed from over the central plains to over the
appalachians. The surface high settles over the carolina coast by
late Monday, bringing easterly flow initially Monday, but as a
series of shortwaves move over the gulf late Monday through mid
week, a surface trough develops over the eastern gulf Monday night
into Tuesday, then a surface low develops over the central gulf
Wednesday night, which then heads northeast. Offshore flow quickly
returns by Tuesday, with moderate to strong flow at times
expected mid-week through the rest of the work-week. 16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 8 am cst Monday for

Wind advisory until 9 am cst this morning for alz263>266.

Fl... Wind advisory until 9 am cst this morning for flz202-204-206.

Ms... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 8 am cst Monday for

Gm... Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 3 am cst Monday
for gmz650-655-670-675.

Gale warning until 9 am cst this morning for gmz650-655-670-675.

Small craft advisory until noon cst today for gmz630>635.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 36 mi66 min 54°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.4)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 48 mi81 min 54°F 1017 hPa43°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 49 mi96 min N 17 56°F 1016.6 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 56 mi66 min NNW 12 52°F 1017.6 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi2.2 hrsNNW 17 G 2510.00 miOvercast56°F47°F72%1014 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi73 minN 17 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F41°F62%1016.5 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL18 mi2.2 hrsN 18 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy56°F41°F57%1014.3 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL20 mi70 minN 610.00 miFair50°F43°F77%1015.4 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL21 mi71 minNNW 13 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F42°F66%1015.5 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi70 minNNW 13 G 24 miMostly Cloudy54°F41°F62%1016.1 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi73 minNNW 19 G 2710.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy57°F43°F60%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS11S11S11S11S10SW9SW9
1 day agoN4N4E6E6SE64S6S8--S7S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
2 days agoN6N5N3NE4CalmN6S6S75S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N5N5N4N4N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
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Sun -- 06:17 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM CST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:01 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:42 PM CST     1.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida (sub)
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Navarre Beach
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Sun -- 06:06 AM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:16 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:01 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:19 PM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.