Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 1:38 AM CST (07:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:19AMMoonset 6:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 936 Pm Cst Mon Jan 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north 18 to 23 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Slight chance of rain. Slight chance of snow and light sleet after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 2 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 936 Pm Cst Mon Jan 15 2018
Synopsis..Generally light east flow continues through Tuesday, before becoming a strong northerly Tuesday night into Wednesday behind a strong frontal passage. Strong offshore flow will continue through Wednesday night, then diminish and become more east to southeasterly later this week and over the weekend as high pressure builds east of the marine area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, FL
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location: 30.45, -86.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 160548
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1148 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance...

vfr conditions expected through the overnight hours. Low clouds
begin to move in along the coast around mid morning ahead of the
cold front. MVFR conditions are anticipated from the cloudy skies
and lowered ceilings. During the evening behind the front winds
shift out of the northwest. Some light showers transitioning into
a wintry mix will be possible along and north of hwy-65 by late
evening though still anticipate MVFR conditions dj 17 &&

Prev discussion issued 552 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance...

vfr conditions expected through the overnight hours. Low clouds
begin to move in along the coast around mid morning ahead of the
cold front. MVFR conditions are anticipated from the cloudy skies
and lowered ceilings. Winds throughout southern alabama and the
gulf coast start light and variable, but shift out of the
northwest by late morning associated with the front. Dj 17
prev discussion... Issued 457 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
.Wintry weather and very cold temperatures to impact the central
gulf coast region...

near term now through Tuesday night ... An upper level trough
will greatly amplify over the central plains and upper midwestern
states late tonight into Tuesday, while an associated cold front
pushes southeastward to the lower mississippi and tennessee valley
region by midday Tuesday. The cold front still looks on track to
enter our northwestern counties during the early afternoon hours
Tuesday, before pushing through the rest of the area through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Cold advection will begin in
earnest over our northwestern zones, where daytime highs will
occur early with temperatures falling through the afternoon and
around freezing by 5-6 pm. Short range model guidance still
indicates a broad area of enhanced moisture and lift translating
from northwest to southeast across our CWA Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night as a strong upper level jet advances across the
region on the east southeast side of the broad upper trough axis.

Short range guidance has come into a little better agreement with
placing a little more moisture in the lower levels across our area
today as this zone of ascent moves our region, versus some of the
drier previous runs. Confidence has increased that precipitation
will develop from northwest to southeast over the area Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night, and with the colder airmass in
place, precipitation may start out in the form of a wintry mix of
light rain, sleet and snow, before transitioning to all light snow
before precipitation ends Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Given better agreement on model QPF placement, we have added
potential of light accumulations of snow across most locations
away from the immediate coast as the band of lift moves across our
area. General thinking is that accumulations will mostly average
less than one half inch (dusting) across most of our area, but a
few localized spots could receive around or slightly over one
inch. Very cold air settling over the area Tuesday night will
allow any residual moisture left on the roads to freeze and cause
slick spots and travel concerns. We have issued a winter weather
advisory for all but the immediate coastal counties for potential
light accumulations and possible travel impacts Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night. Later shifts may need to consider adding the
coastal zones if confidence increases of light accumulations and
impacts across these zones. Precipitation should end over the
northwest west zones by around midnight and over the eastern cwa
by around daybreak.

Other impacts to consider will be hard freeze and wind chill
criteria Tuesday night. Overnight lows are expected to range in
the upper teens to around 20 degrees over southeast ms and
interior southwest and south central al and we have upgraded the
hard freeze watch to a warning over these zones. Elevated
northerly winds will also result in dangerous wind chills in the
single digits over this same area, so have also issued a wind
chill advisory. 21
short term Wednesday through Thursday night ... Cold high
pressure will build across the region Wednesday into Thursday.

Highs Wednesday will likely not get out of the 30s over most of
the interior. Another hard freeze is looking likely Wednesday
night over most of the interior and another hard freeze watch will
likely be needed.

Long term Friday through Monday ... Thursday through Friday
night, several shortwave push surface high pressure over the
southeast eastward, bringing back a more organized onshore flow to
the forecast area. For this section of the forecast, am concerned
with the onshore flow over cool water temps along the northern gulf
coast (general 50s). With that, will have to keep an eye out for sea
fog development Friday night on. Temps moderate upward from the
southerly flow (and outside the persistent fog areas) to around
seasonal levels.

Saturday through Monday, the onshore flow continues and with that,
sea fog along the coast due to continued persistent warm flow over
cool coastal waters. Moisture levels increase area wide, and with
that, am expecting shra coverage to increase, with western areas of
the forecast area seeing the greatest chance due to the strongest
onshore flow. More shortwave energy moves east over the plains,
mississippi river valley and the southeast, pushing a front across
the area Sunday night into Monday and with that, the next best
chance of rain to the area. Temps continue to moderate upward to
above seasonal levels, especially outside of the persistent fog
areas, with upper 60s possible by Sunday.

Marine... A surface ridge over the northern gulf coast will bring
a light southeasterly winds into Tuesday, then a front will cross
the area, bringing strong northerly flow to area coastal waters
late Tuesday into Tuesday night. A surface ridge will move over
the southeast quickly behind the FROPA Wednesday into Wednesday
night, easing the the offshore flow Wednesday night into Thursday.

The surface high will move east of the area Friday into Friday
night, bringing back a light to at times moderate onshore flow for
for the coming weekend. 16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Hard freeze warning from midnight Tuesday night to 10 am cst
Wednesday for alz051>058-261-262.

Winter weather advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 am cst Wednesday
for alz051>060-261>264.

Wind chill advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 10 am cst
Wednesday for alz051>060-261>264.

Fl... Winter weather advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 am cst Wednesday
for flz201-203-205.

Wind chill advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 10 am cst
Wednesday for flz201-203-205.

Ms... Hard freeze warning from midnight Tuesday night to 10 am cst
Wednesday for msz067-075-076-078-079.

Winter weather advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 am cst Wednesday
for msz067-075-076-078-079.

Wind chill advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 10 am cst
Wednesday for msz067-075-076-078-079.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 3 pm Tuesday to 6 am cst Thursday for
gmz630>636-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi159 min N 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 51°F1029.5 hPa (+0.0)
PPTA1 36 mi69 min 44°F 1029.5 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 48 mi114 min 37°F 1029 hPa37°F
WBYA1 48 mi51 min 53°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 49 mi69 min NNE 5.1 45°F 1029.5 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 56 mi69 min Calm 43°F 1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair35°F31°F90%1029.3 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair39°F34°F82%1029.4 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL18 mi43 minENE 310.00 miFair35°F30°F85%1028.2 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL21 mi1.7 hrsNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds36°F30°F81%1030.2 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi43 minN 0 miFair35°F32°F89%1029.1 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair42°F35°F76%1029.7 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5NE3NE3N5N5N5NE4E6E4CalmSE6S7S5SW5S3SW3CalmN3N4N4N4N5N5Calm
1 day agoN11NE9N10N9N9N9N10NE10E8NE6N9N7NE4NE7NE8NE7N5N5N5NE3N6N5NE4NE5
2 days agoN17
G25
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G23
N15N14
G19
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G21
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N15N13N12N14N14
G21
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G21
N15N11

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:07 AM CST     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM CST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:20 PM CST     1.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.90.70.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida (sub)
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:07 AM CST     -1.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:01 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:01 PM CST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM CST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.9-1-1.1-1-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.3-00.20.40.70.91.11.21.21.210.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.