Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:06PM Thursday March 30, 2017 5:49 AM CDT (10:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:39AMMoonset 10:07PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 430 Am Cdt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft should exercise caution today through early Friday...
Today..South winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning.
Friday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 6 to 11 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 8 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 430 Am Cdt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis..Southerly winds will increase along with building seas today and tonight ahead of a storm system approaching from the west. A few strong to severe Thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight. A light to moderate west to northwest flow is expected in the wake of the front by late Friday. Onshore flow will strengthen again Sunday night into Monday ahead of the next storm system.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, FL
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location: 30.45, -86.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 300943
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
443 am cdt Thu mar 30 2017

Near term /now through Thursday night/ A very complex weather
scenario continues to unfold across the eastern third of the
country. Forecast will lean toward the more consistent ecmwf
solution, which is also in fairly good agreement with the hrrr
hires model in the near term forecast period. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are still possible for today and this evening this
evening as a strong storm system approaches the region from the
west. A large mid and upper level trough with embedded closed low
pressure area over eastern kansas early this morning will advance
east, approaching the mississippi river by late today and then
becoming more negatively tilted and ejecting east across our
forecast area this evening. A surface low pressure area over also
over eastern kansas early this morning will lift northeast,
reaching northern illinois by late this afternoon, and southern
michigan by 12z Friday. An associated cold front will slowly
advance east across mississippi today and across our forecast area
this evening, and should be exiting our area or just to the east
of our area by 12z Friday.

A deep southerly wind flow ahead of the system will continue to
advect moisture northward into the region, with precipitable water
values climbing to between 1.4 to 1.6 inches on today, so plenty of
low level moisture to work with. Severe weather parameters in the
gfs continue to be higher when compared to the ECMWF which as stated
earlier is similar to hrrr, but some of the ECMWF values have come
up. ECMWF mlcape values are now advertised at around 1000 to 1300
j/kg across much of the region this afternoon, which are slightly
higher than 600 to 900 j/kg values noted in hrrr, but still modest
instability. Sfc-1km storm relative helicity values from all models
are generally slightly higher too, occasionally in the 150 to 200
m2/s2 range during the late morning and afternoon and particularly
over the interior northwestern counties. Models advertise mid level
lapse rates to generally be in the 6.5 to 7.5 degree range across
the area at times today. Low level, mid level forcing is not
particularly strong, with 850mb flow generally 35 knots (maybe up to
40 knots far northwestern counties around midday) or less.

Therefore, the environment still favors the possible development of
strong to severe thunderstorms today with damaging winds, large
hail, and isolated tornadoes are all possible. The minimal tornado
threat will be highest over northwestern counties which will be
closer to the strongest dynamics.

Hrrr and ECMWF both indicating strong forcing over the gulf with the
possibility of an offshore convective complex, which could well
limit the severe threat over our inland forecast area, we will just
have to wait and see how this pans out. Even so, likely pops across
most of the area at times this afternoon and tonight with showers
and thunderstorms moving west to east across the area. If northern
edge of this convection moves inland across coastal counties, which
is a possibility, heavy rainfall is possible with widespread totals
of 1-2 inches with localized higher amounts.

Todays high temps near normal, in the upper 70s most locations.

Tonights low temps above normal, ranging from low to mid 50s
northwest to lower 60s southeast. 12/ds

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/ Main upper trof
moves east of the forecast area by early Fri morning proceeded by
a sharp short wave ridge that moves from east tx to the SE conus
fri through late Sat night. This pattern will lead to a much drier
weather pattern across the north central gulf coast region and
forecast area late Fri morning through late Sat eve with pwats
lowering to around .50 inches on Fri then slowly rebounding to
around .80 inches by late Sat night. Model soundings also show
better high clouds moving in from the west southwest by Sat as the
mean flow aloft shifts back to the southwest. As for temps with
good subsidence in the boundary combined with more Sun then clouds
both Fri and Sat conditions will continue to be mild with daytime
and nighttime temps approximately 3 to 5 degrees above average
for this time of the year. Highs will range from the upper 70s to
lower 80s for most inland areas and the mid 70s near the coast.

Lows both days will range from the mid to upper 50s.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/ By early Sun ridge axis
nears the atlantic seaboard as next deep upper low/trof
approaches the lower mississippi river valley and north central
gulf states from the west. This system is progged to be rather
vigorous across the northern gulf states beginning late Sun night
continuing through early Mon afternoon, possibly resulting in
another round of strong to severe thunderstorms. With strong
forcing in the mid levels combined with good vertical and speed
shear in the lower to mid levels of the boundary layer along with
moderate surface based instability with capes possible as high as
1200 j/kg this pattern will have to be monitored closely over the
weekend. Stay tuned for further updates on this severe weather
potential for mon. For Sun although more high clouds move in from
the west expect more Sun than clouds through mid afternoon
followed by increasing mid to low clouds late Sun into Mon with
the best rain chances occurring early Mon morning through midday.

By late Mon afternoon the main low center begins to shift off to
the east northeast leading to another round of drier weather with
better Sun than clouds each day through Wed afternoon. Both day
and nighttime temps will continue to be 2 to 4 degrees above
seasonal averages with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower
80s for most inland areas, mid 70s near the coast and nighttime
lows in the mid to upper 50s inland and the lower 60s near the
immediate coast. 32/ee

Marine Southerly winds will increase along with building seas
ahead of a storm system that is approaching from the west today and
moving east across the marine area tonight. Winds reaching scec
levels. Winds and seas higher near scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A few of the storms strong to severe. A light to
moderate west to northwest flow is expected in the wake of the front
by late Friday. Onshore flow will strengthen once again Sunday night
into Monday, along with building seas, ahead of the next storm
system. Small craft advisory criteria possible by Monday. 12/ds

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mobile 77 58 81 57 / 70 70 10 0
pensacola 77 62 78 60 / 60 80 10 0
destin 75 65 75 62 / 50 80 20 0
evergreen 81 59 80 53 / 50 80 10 0
waynesboro 79 54 79 52 / 60 60 0 0
camden 81 58 78 53 / 50 80 10 0
crestview 81 61 81 54 / 40 80 10 0

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi50 min SSW 8.9 G 11 72°F 74°F1012.8 hPa (-0.7)
PPTA1 36 mi50 min S 8.9 72°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.3)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 43 mi60 min S 9.7 G 9.7 71°F 71°F4 ft1012.3 hPa (-0.4)70°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 48 mi65 min 71°F 69°F
WBYA1 48 mi50 min 75°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 49 mi50 min S 11 1011.9 hPa (-0.7)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 56 mi50 min SE 6 70°F 1012.2 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi1.7 hrsSSE 610.00 miFair68°F66°F94%1012.7 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi57 minS 510.00 miFair69°F64°F87%1012.8 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL18 mi54 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds63°F61°F93%1011.6 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL20 mi54 minN 00.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F57°F100%1011.6 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL21 mi55 minS 310.00 miFair69°F66°F90%1013.8 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi54 minS 6 miFair70°F66°F90%1012.6 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL24 mi57 minS 510.00 miFair72°F71°F97%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--CalmSE6SE10SE9SE7S8SE9SE6S6SE7E6SE7SE6SE6SE6SE7SE9S7S7--S6Calm
1 day agoCalmSW3SW5S7S9S11S12S14SW10
G15
S11SW8S8S7S6S6S6S6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE3E8SE7SE8SE8SE10SE9SE10SE12SE10SE8SE8SE7S7S7S7S6S6S3S3S5SW3Calm--

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:48 PM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.60.70.80.91.11.11.21.21.21.110.80.60.40.20.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida (sub)
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:43 AM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:10 PM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.60.60.70.80.80.911.11.21.21.110.80.60.40.2-0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.10

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.