Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Valparaiso, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:50PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 12:51 AM CDT (05:51 UTC) Moonrise 10:52AMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 945 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 945 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis..A weak surface ridge of high pressure over the northeast gulf will shift south in response to a weak surface front shifting southward over the north central gulf states through late in the week. This pattern will bring a slight increase in winds and seas through mid to late week. Better coverage of showers and Thunderstorms will also continue through much of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valparaiso, FL
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location: 30.49, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 170437 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1137 pm cdt Mon jul 16 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... MostlyVFR conditions through about 17.12z followed
by MVFR to ifr CIGS and visibilties through about 18.00z followed
by MVFR toVFR conditions through 18.06z. Lower CIGS and
visibilties mainly in and around scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The best coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will occur during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will
be southwest to west at 5 to 8 kts. Higher gusts possibly up to
around 40 knots can be expected with the some of the stronger
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 959 pm cdt Mon jul 16 2018
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Have updated to lower pops to slight chance for most of
the area for the remainder of the night as isolated showers and
storms move southward across the area. Made additional adjustments
to temperature trends and other minor adjustments. 29
prev discussion... Issued 652 pm cdt Mon jul 16 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... Current scattered showers and storms will
gradually diminish this evening. Showers and storms will redevelop
again on Tuesday and strong gusty winds and frequent lightning
will accompany the stronger storms along with ifr MVFR conditions.

Winds become light and variable this evening then become westerly
at 5 to 10 knots Tuesday morning. 29
prev discussion... Issued 330 pm cdt Mon jul 16 2018
near term now through Tuesday ... High pressure ridge extending
east to west across the northeastern gulf of mexico tonight is
expected to get pushed into the southeastern gulf on Tuesday as a
series of shortwaves aloft result in a deepening longwave trough
over the eastern third of the country. This pattern will allow
a surface front to sag south into central portions of alabama and
mississippi by the end of the day on Tuesday. This boundary and
the weak upper support will combine with the still very moist
airmass (pwat's will again be in excess of 2.0 inches across most
of the area) and result in another round of widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, with possibly a
little more coverage than the past several days. Locally heavy
rainfall will again be possible Tuesday as storm motion will again
be relatively slow. Some localized ponding nuisance flooding,
will be possible, especially in those locations scattered across the
area that have received excessive rainfall over the past few
days. Wpc has outlooked the entire forecast area in a marginal
chance of rainfall amounts exceeding FFG values and we will have
monitor trends. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
evening ending by mid to late evening. Temperatures continue above
normal, especially tonight. Lows overnight will range from the mid
70s inland to upper 70s and a few lower 80s at the coast. On Tuesday
widespread showers and storms will result in near normal high
temperatures around 90 degrees, but with the very moist airmass
still in place, heat indices in the 100-105 degree range can again
be expected in some rainfree locations. 12 ds
short term Tuesday night through Thursday night ... A broad
upper level ridge extends from the desert southwest eastward into
the deep south through the short term. To its north, an upper trough
digs from the great lakes region into the northeast and mid-
atlantic states. The southern extent of this shortwave reaches
into interior portions of the southeast, which will provide a
slight bump in large-scale ascent as a surface front is forced
south towards the coast. As a result, expect more widespread
thunderstorm coverage through the day Wednesday. The upper trough
moves off over the western atlantic Wednesday night into
Thursday. Another, weaker shortwave quickly passes through the
area Thursday which could support some scattered showers and
thunderstorms during afternoon and evening hours. That said, the
better coverage should remain along the immediate coast and
offshore, along and south of the stalled front. Stronger storms
through the period will be capable of producing gusty winds and
frequent lightning. Some minor flooding issues could also arise on
Wednesday, given the greater coverage expected. High temps reach
the low 90s and lows remain in the low to mid 70s. Heat indices
reach the 100 to 105 degree range each afternoon. 49
long term Friday through Monday ... As we head into the weekend,
the eastern extent of the upper ridge breaks down and an
anomalously strong area of high pressure builds over the
southwestern conus. The resulting pattern becomes far more
amplified than is typical this time of year as a ridge sets up
over much of the western CONUS and a deep longwave trough digs
into the eastern CONUS by Sunday. Ahead of this trough, we will
continue to see scattered diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. A surface front then pushes
southeast through the area Sunday, dropping moisture levels a bit
and pushing the best rain chances into the gulf and east of the
area Monday. Since it's july on the gulf coast, you won't notice
much difference in temperatures behind this front. Highs remain in
the low to mid 90s through the period and lows in the mid 70s.

Heat indices reach the 100 to 105 degree range each day. 49
marine... A high pressure ridge axis over the northeastern gulf
today will get pushed down to the southeastern gulf by Tuesday as a
weak surface front settles into the interior of mississippi and
alabama. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the marine
area just a bit during the middle part of the week with slightly
increased winds and seas, and also will bring an increase in marine
convection. This pattern will continue into late week, but winds and
seas subside somewhat as the gradient relaxes due to the front
washing out. Marine convection will also be a little less
widespread by late week. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi33 min NW 6 G 6 80°F 86°F1017.7 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 39 mi39 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 87°F1017.6 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 49 mi33 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 88°F1017.5 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 64 mi31 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 82°F 1018.1 hPa77°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL3 mi1.9 hrsW 310.00 miA Few Clouds76°F72°F89%1017.8 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair80°F73°F79%1017.1 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL11 mi1.9 hrsNW 410.00 miFair78°F72°F83%1017.1 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL21 mi58 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmCalmN4N4N4N3NE4W3CalmSE6W5CalmW6W7W11NW11W5W3Calm--W3W3
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmS6S8S7S11S12
G16
S15S9NE5NE5N9N4CalmCalmN4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3NW4NW7SE3W4S7S8S10SW10S9SW8SW8SW7SW6SW4SW3S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:51 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:57 PM CDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.40.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.40.30.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:20 AM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:13 PM CDT     0.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.100000.10.10.10.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.