Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ferry Pass, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 4:51PM Monday November 19, 2018 10:29 AM CST (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 3:32AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 931 Am Cst Mon Nov 19 2018
Rest of today..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Tonight..Winds light becoming northwest 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely.
Friday night..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 931 Am Cst Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate northerly flow today will increase to moderate late tonight in the wake of a frontal passage and then continue through Wednesday, along with slightly building seas. A mainly moderate northeast to east flow is then expected late in the week. With the easterly flow becoming more dominant, seas will continue to increase slightly through the end of the week, reaching up to around 4 feet well offshore by late Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferry Pass, FL
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location: 30.52, -87.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 191155
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
555 am cst Mon nov 19 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance...VFR conditions expected for most of the forecast
period, but clouds will be on the increase across the region and
will be lowering through tonight as a cold front approaches from
the west. As the front moves through late tonight, ceilings will
drop to around 5000 feet, but may briefly drop to MVFR levels in
and around scattered showers that will accompany the frontal
passage. Surface winds remaining light. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 409 am cst Mon nov 19 2018
near term now through Monday night ... A weak cold front pushes
southeast into the lower mississippi river valley today and then
push southeastward across most of the forecast area tonight. Ahead
of this front, the surface ridge of high pressure that has been
located over the local area weakens and slides east, with moisture
making a slow but steady increase. Pwats below 1 inch across the
area early this morning improve to around 1.15 inches in some
areas by late tonight. In addition, as the front slowly approaches
and moves across the area, weak shortwave energy aloft will move
east across the area as well, resulting in enough forcing to
produce some light rainfall as the system passes, mainly from late
this afternoon through tonight. Rainfall totals will generally be
no more that 0.25 inches across the region, and in most cases
less than that. Highs today ranging from the upper 60s to lower
70s, with the cooler temperatures primarily over far northern
zones and also along the immediate coast. Lows tonight continue a
slow warming trend due to the increasing moisture, with temps
dipping into the mid to upper 40s far inland northwest zones, but
in the lower 50s elsewhere. 12 ds
short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... Frontal boundary
is forecast to have made passage Tuesday morning, aligned to out
over the coastal waters Tuesday morning. Considering some
lingering deep layer moisture and upper level trof axis pivoting
across the deep south supports a mention of a slight chance of
post frontal showers Tuesday morning over portions of the coastal
counties. Any precipitation amounts expected to be light (less
than 5 hundredths of an inch). Chances of showers drop off
markedly Tuesday afternoon as upper trof advances eastward thru
the remainder of the day. The passage of this feature scours out
environmental moisture while surface high pressure begins to
expand eastward over the deep south. Surface high is maintained
thru Wednesday. To our west and southwest, a wave of frontal low
pressure developing over the western gulf Wednesday moves little.

With high pressure continuing to be in control of local weather
pattern, no rain in the forecast the remainder of the short term
period.

As deep layer thickness values lower, the result will be highs
several degrees below climatology Tuesday Wednesday. Tuesday
night lows trend colder. Will continue on the chilly side
Wednesday night. 10
long term Thursday through Sunday ... The latest medium range
global models continue to advertise a southern stream mid level
impulse moving quickly eastward over the gulf on thanksgiving day.

The southern portions of the local area may be clipped enough by
the passage of weak lift associated with this energy as to
squeeze out a small pop. On its heels, a more significant storm
system ejects quickly eastward out of the plains and across the ms
river valley Friday. Unfortunately, this suggests that the
umbrellas rain coats and boots will be needed Friday if out and
about doing some local holiday shopping as chances of wet weather
look to become likely.

As far as surface features, disagreements between the 19.00z models
regarding strength and track of a wave of surface frontal low
pressure over the northern gulf coast remains in the physicals for
Friday. The GFS tracks its low from southern la Friday, eastward
across the coastal waters by Friday night. This would favor
keeping a warm front suppressed near or off the coast. The
canadian gem is similar. On the other hand, the ECMWF lifts its
low pressure solution more northeast from southern la to across
central ms central al by Friday evening. This track could favor a
more northward motion of warm front. Another big player in the
forecast is the strength of surface high pressure wedging down
from the appalachians into the southeast. With models tending to
break down these wedges too fast, preference is the more southward
orientation of the warm front. Think there will be a bit more
instability along and south of the warm front than the latest
guidance advertises. Thus, will mention a small chance of thunder
on this package over the coast and offshore Friday afternoon and
evening.

Going into the weekend, a larger spread is noted in the guidance
with the GFS sending a strong cold front quickly eastward thru the
area Sunday, while the ECMWF is 24 hrs slower with its passage. 10
marine... A light to occasionally moderate northerly flow today will
increase to moderate late tonight in the wake of a frontal passage
and then continue through Wednesday with slightly building seas (up
to around 2 feet offshore). A mainly moderate northeast to east flow
is then expected late in the week. With the easterly flow, a longer
fetch over water will result in slightly higher seas by the end of
the week, up to around 4 feet well offshore. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 8 mi41 min Calm G 1.9 61°F 60°F1022.7 hPa
PPTA1 26 mi59 min 61°F 1022.7 hPa
WBYA1 35 mi41 min 60°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 36 mi104 min 60°F 1022 hPa53°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 37 mi39 min NE 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 1 ft1022.9 hPa55°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 37 mi89 min SSE 1 59°F 1022 hPa (+1.4)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 42 mi89 min NNW 1 55°F 1023.4 hPa (+2.0)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 45 mi59 min S 1 59°F 1022.4 hPa
PTOA1 47 mi41 min 60°F 54°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 48 mi47 min 61°F 59°F1022.9 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 48 mi41 min Calm G 1 60°F 62°F1023.1 hPa
MBPA1 49 mi41 min 59°F 53°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL4 mi36 minE 410.00 miFair65°F48°F54%1022.5 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL14 mi33 minENE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F50°F56%1022.7 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL15 mi93 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F50°F67%1020.9 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL16 mi93 minENE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F51°F46%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmN3CalmE4S5CalmNW3CalmCalmNW3N4N5NW5N6N3N4N4NE4N3CalmN4E4E4
1 day ago3SE6CalmSE5SE4S5CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3N4N5N5N5N7N6N3N5N4N4NE3NE4
2 days agoNE5N8NW7NW7NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW4N5N6N5N6N4N6N5N4N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:32 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:18 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:59 AM CST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 AM CST     0.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:44 PM CST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:54 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CST     1.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.80.80.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.80.9111.11.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:32 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:56 AM CST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:18 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:04 AM CST     0.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:41 PM CST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:54 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:23 PM CST     0.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.70.60.60.60.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.80.80.90.90.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.