Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ferry Pass, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:18PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:10 AM CST (10:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:22PMMoonset 9:47AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:201901231515;;779584 Fzus54 Kmob 230314 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 914 Pm Cst Tue Jan 22 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-231515- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 914 Pm Cst Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots becoming southwest 25 to 30 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Friday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Saturday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 914 Pm Cst Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis..Strengthening onshore flow brings building seas into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front crosses the area Wednesday night with strong offshore flow in its wake. Offshore flow decreases and seas subside going into the day Thursday. Light to moderate offshore flow looks to continue into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferry Pass, FL
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location: 30.52, -87.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 230607
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1207 am cst Wed jan 23 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance...

MVFR conditions will continue overnight tonight due to low
clouds and light scattered showers. These showers should continue
into the mid morning. Ifr conditions will be possible late in the
morning from strong thunderstorms associated with a cold front
approaching from the west. Gusty south winds will also be possible
during the day. Strong thunderstorms are anticipated in the late
afternoon initially with light stratiform rain lingering into the
late evening. Winds will shift west to northwesterly behind the
cold front. Dj 17

Prev discussion issued 822 pm cst Tue jan 22 2019
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... The afternoon forecast package remains on track with
no updates required at this time. Light rain has continued to
spread from south to north over SE mississippi and SW alabama
tonight with rainfall accumulations of less than a tenth of an
inch. Light rainfall will spread from west to east tonight as
isentropic ascent increases over northwest florida and south
central alabama. Heavier rainfalls on tap for tomorrow as a deep
upper mid level shortwave trough drives a cold front across the
region. Despite the meager instability projected... The ample deep
layer shear, strong low level winds and helicities warrant a
marginal risk of severe weather along the western florida
panhandle and southern portions of mobile and baldwin counties.

Strong warm air advection and cloud cover will keep overnight lows
as warm or warmer than this afternoon's high temperatures. 08
prev discussion... Issued 553 pm cst Tue jan 22 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance...

MVFR conditions are expected tonight due to low ceilings and
light scattered showers. These showers should persist overnight
into the mid morning. Ifr conditions will be possible in the late
morning from strong storms ahead of and along a cold front
approaching from the west. Gusty south winds will also be possible
ahead of the cold front. Heavy thunderstorms are anticipated in
the late afternoon with light stratiform rain lingering into the
late evening. Dj 17
prev discussion... Issued 356 pm cst Tue jan 22 2019
near term now through Wednesday ... Upper level geo-potential
height field today shows more amplification with short-wave upper
ridge now over the appalachians while a sharpening upstream trof
was aligned from the central high plains to the four corners of
the desert southwest. Axis of surface high pressure was analyzed
from the new england states southward to over the carolinas. Over
the plains, frontal boundary was moving eastward over the southern
plains.

Upper trof makes steady eastward progress over the plains tonight
then approaching the ms river valley Wednesday. Rain chances begin
to increase over the western half of the local area thru the night.

As the upper trof along with associated cold front nears on Wednesday,
deep layer ascent begins to increase more so within a zone of deep
gulf moisture pulling north-northeast off the western and central
gulf. This supports categorical pops. Low level wind profiles and
shear increases thru the day Wednesday, but instability is on the
low side => (cape <500 j kg). This instability mainly populates the
southern zones to out into the gulf waters per latest high
resolution model data. Despite occurrence of high shear and low cape
environments, which is common in the cold season along the gulf
coast, forecasters cannot totally rule out an isolated severe storm
over the coastal zones Wednesday afternoon. Considering if coastal
convection forms by late afternoon, forecasters will be watching for
isolated rotating updrafts given 0-1 km storm relative helicity
values in excess of 300 m2 s2 and curved hodographs. Another
consideration will be the northward transport of flow above a
potentially cool and stable marine layer which would have an a
mitigating affect on surface based convection despite more than
sufficient shear. Given uncertainties, a marginal risk of severe
storms is outlooked for mobile county eastward to the western
florida panhandle Wednesday. Given the strengthening southerly wind
flow on Wednesday, gridded wind gusts support issuance of a wind
advisory for the coastal zones, marginal over the interior and wind
advisory may be extended northward on later shifts. High surf with 5
to 7 ft breakers in the surf zone likely late tonight into
Wednesday. Thus a high surf advisory will also be issued on this
package.

Along area beaches, a high risk of dangerous to potentially deadly
rip currents persists. 10
short term Wednesday night through Friday night ... As the upper
trough continues to approach the region, the surface cold front
should be near the i-65 corridor around 6 pm and move south of
the florida coast by 10 pm. There is about a 4 hour hour window
for the potential of strong to marginal severe thunderstorms to
occur along and ahead of the cold front before the storms exit the
forecast area. The ongoing widespread showers with embedded
isolated to scattered thunderstorms early Wednesday evening across
our alabama and western florida panhandle zones, and the likely
showers across our mississippi zones, will otherwise taper off
from west to east through 3 am Wednesday night. A cold, dry period
will follow Thursday and Friday as the upper trough moves east of
the region, followed by the reinforcing upper trough late
Thursday night. Surface high pressure will also build in from the
west throughout the day Thursday, followed by a reinforcing shot
of cold air moving through the forecast area late Thursday night.

22
long term Saturday through Tuesday ... The dry period now looks
to persist through Monday night as a strong surface high pressure
area settles across the southeast states. The GFS and ECMWF models
are still developing an upper trough that exits the southern
plains and moves over the western gulf of mexico Saturday night.

However, both models develop an associated surface low pressure
area over the southern gulf of mexico by the end of the weekend
that lifts northeast. Due to the surface low tracking so far
south, precipitation chances from the ECMWF and GFS are now zero
late this weekend into Monday. There is a chance of light rain
showers on Tuesday ahead of the next system approaching from the
west. 22
marine... Main hazards are in the near term as a cold front
approaches from the west Wednesday. Onshore flow strengthens and
evolving fetch causes sea states to build. Wind shift with frontal
passage occurs Wednesday night with offshore flow in its wake to
remain strong. Offshore flow decreases and seas subside going into
the day Thursday. A slight modification to current small craft
advisories made on the afternoon package to include remainder of
bays and sounds from mid am Wednesday continuing into the evening.

10

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Thursday morning for alz265-266.

High surf advisory until 6 am cst Thursday for alz265-266.

Wind advisory from 11 am to 7 pm cst Wednesday for alz263>266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Thursday morning for flz202-204-
206.

High surf advisory until 6 am cst Thursday for flz202-204-206.

Wind advisory from 11 am to 7 pm cst Wednesday for flz201>206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 9 am to 9 pm cst Wednesday for
gmz633>636.

Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for gmz630>632-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 8 mi40 min SSE 13 G 16 66°F 54°F1018.3 hPa
PPTA1 26 mi40 min 66°F 1017.6 hPa
WBYA1 35 mi40 min 57°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 36 mi85 min 67°F 1017 hPa61°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 37 mi40 min SE 21 G 27 67°F 1017.9 hPa62°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 37 mi100 min SE 20 65°F 1015.2 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 42 mi40 min SE 19 67°F 1016.9 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 45 mi70 min E 24 61°F 1015.2 hPa (-2.7)
PTOA1 47 mi40 min 64°F 62°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 48 mi40 min 65°F 52°F1017 hPa
MBPA1 49 mi40 min 60°F 58°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL4 mi17 minSE 16 G 2710.00 miOvercast66°F60°F81%1018.4 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL14 mi14 minSE 19 G 287.00 miOvercast and Breezy67°F63°F87%1017.9 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL15 mi74 minSE 16 G 2110.00 miOvercast64°F57°F81%1018.5 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL16 mi14 minSE 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast63°F57°F84%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN7N4N7NE7NE9N84NE8N7N6N6--NE3NE3NE4E4E5E5E6E6E8E9
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N8NW7NW7N8N9N6NW5N5N8N8N7

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:23 AM CST     1.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:46 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:59 AM CST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.51.41.210.70.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.91

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:46 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:56 AM CST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:17 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.210.90.60.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.100.20.40.50.70.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.