Friday, November17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Callahan, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:28PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:41 PM EST (00:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:59AMMoonset 5:21PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 200 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southeast in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 200 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure over north carolina will move eastward into the atlantic tonight and Saturday. A cold front will move across the area Sunday morning with a chance of showers accompanying it. High pressure will build behind the front from the northwest Sunday and Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Callahan, FL
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location: 30.56, -81.74     debug

Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 172028
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
330 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

Near term tonight and Saturday
High pressure over north carolina will shift eastward into the
atlantic tonight. In response, winds will become southerly tonight
and then southwesterly on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Clear skies and nearly calm winds tonight will provide ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Given these conditions, we favored
the cooler side of guidance for min temps tonight. Patchy fog is
expected inland late tonight, possibly dense in a few spots.

Warm southwesterly winds and mid level shortwave ridging aloft
with plenty of sunshine will result in warm conditions on
Saturday with above normal MAX temps. Dry conditions will
prevail through Saturday.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
A trough aloft currently moving through the rockies will progress
eastward across the plains states on Saturday and will reach the
u.S. East coast by late Sunday. This trough will push a strong cold
front into the southeastern states on Saturday afternoon. A narrow
band of enhanced moisture (pwats of 1.4-1.5 inches) will accompany
this cold front, and only scattered showers are expected to enter
inland southeast georgia after midnight Saturday night, progressing
quickly southeastward into the suwannee valley and coastal southeast
georgia during the predawn and early morning hours on Sunday. Our
local pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the front, with breezy
southwesterly winds expected to continue overnight in coastal
locations and also over inland southeast georgia. The frontal
passage will not occur until just before sunrise over most of inland
southeast georgia, so we expect inland lows to generally range from
55-60, with coastal lows generally in the lower 60s. These lows are
about 4-8 degrees above climo.

Widely scattered showers will quickly progress across the rest of
northeast and north central florida during the morning hours on
Sunday, with activity moving mostly offshore by early afternoon.

Rainfall amounts during this frontal passage will generally be
around a tenth of an inch or less region-wide. Skies will quickly
clear from northwest to southeast from the late morning through the
mid-afternoon hours on Sunday, with cool high pressure building
eastward from the ARKLATEX region by late in the afternoon.

Significant cool air advection on the heels of breezy northwesterly
winds will keep highs in the mid to upper 60s across southeast
georgia and the northern suwannee valley, with temperatures reaching
the lower 70s during the morning hours over the rest of northeast
and north central florida before falling back into the 60s during
the mid to late afternoon hours.

Cool high pressure will continue to expand east-northeastward into
the tennessee valley on Sunday night. This weather pattern will keep
a tight pressure gradient in place locally, with low level winds
gradually veering overnight from north-northwesterly to north-
northeasterly by sunrise on Monday. Winds will remain breezy
overnight in coastal locations, with inland winds generally
remaining in the 5-9 mph range through the predawn hours on Monday.

These winds should prevent frost formation at inland locations,
where lows will fall to the upper 30s. Wind chill values will be
around the freezing mark early on Monday morning inland. Lows along
the i-95 corridor will drop to around 40 degrees, ranging to the 45-
50 range at the immediate coast.

Troughing aloft will progress off the u.S. Eastern seaboard by early
Monday, with zonal flow developing in its wake over our area, which
will be downstream of a developing shortwave trough that will be
moving into the lower mississippi valley by Monday evening. Breezy
east-northeasterly winds are expected in coastal locations as high
pressure moves off the carolina coast towards the evening hours.

Stratocumulus clouds will begin to advect off the atlantic waters
during the afternoon hours, with increasing high altitude cirrus
coverage from the west region-wide by late in the day as well.

Coastal highs will only climb into the mid 60s, with inland highs
generally reaching the upper 60s, except lower 70s in north central

The aforementioned shortwave trough will move into the florida
panhandle by the predawn hours on Tuesday. A weak coastal trough
will develop over our near shore atlantic waters overnight, which
may generate a few coastal showers over the northeast florida
coastal counties. Multi-layered cloudiness will continue to increase
over our region, with inland lows generally in the 45-50 degree
range, with onshore winds keeping coastal lows in the 55-60 range.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Shortwave troughing will progress across the deep south on Tuesday.

The cold front that moved through our area on Sunday morning will
return northward as a warm front up the florida peninsula on
Tuesday. Isentropic lift will strengthen in advance of this front,
and lift generated by the shortwave trough will result in scattered
showers developing over our region as the day progresses. East to
southeasterly low level flow will boost highs into the 70-75 range
at most locations despite abundant cloud cover, with upper 70s
expected over north central florida. Meanwhile, another shortwave
trough digging into the southern plains states will dive into the
western gulf of mexico by early Wednesday morning. Southwesterly
flow aloft will strengthen locally downstream of this next trough
during the overnight hours on Tuesday. Weak isentropic lift will
continue locally on Tuesday night as the frontal boundary over the
florida peninsula continues to slowly lift northward. Isolated to
widely scattered showers will remain possible, especially over
coastal locations. Low clouds and possibly fog can also be expected
to develop overnight into early morning on Wednesday. Lows will
generally fall into the 50s, except around 60 in coastal northeast

Long term models have come into better agreement on the evolution of
the weather pattern during the mid to late week time frame. The
aforementioned shortwave will deepen over the central gulf of mexico
by late Wednesday and Thursday, likely resulting in cyclogenesis
over the east central gulf of mexico on Wednesday night. This low
pressure center is expected to gradually strengthen as it progresses
east-northeastward across our region on Thursday and Friday. The
long term guidance still disagree on the speed of this low pressure
center late in the week, but rain chances will increase by
thanksgiving day as isentropic lift strengthens in advance of this
low pressure center. Model blends keep scattered pops in place
locally through Friday night, but this will be dependent on how
quickly the low pressure center exits our region into the atlantic
waters. Highs will likely climb into the low to mid 70s ahead of
this system on Wednesday, cooling back into the 60s for thanksgiving
and Friday. Abundant cloud cover will likely keep lows in the 50s on
Wednesday night, with slightly cooler temperatures expected later in
the week depending on the speed of the gulf low pressure center.

Vfr conditions will prevail. We cannot rule out some patchy fog
tonight, possibly dense in a few spots, but probabilities are
currently still too low to include in the tafs this far out.

Surface high pressure to the north today will shift off the mid-
atlantic coast on Saturday. A cold front will cross the waters from
the northwest Sunday morning bringing a chance of showers. High
pressure will build in behind the front Sunday and Monday. Winds and
seas will increase to near advisory levels Saturday night ahead of
the cold front and then again on Sunday behind the cold front.

Rip currents: moderate risk today, then low risk tomorrow.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 47 78 56 64 0 0 40 20
ssi 55 75 61 68 0 0 20 30
jax 51 79 58 71 0 0 20 30
sgj 54 79 61 72 0 0 10 40
gnv 48 79 58 72 0 0 20 40
ocf 50 79 59 73 0 0 10 40

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Shuler nelson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 26 mi41 min 68°F4 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 55 mi41 min NNW 8 G 8.9 65°F 69°F1018.9 hPa (+0.3)
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 64 mi41 min NE 5.1 58°F 1020 hPa (+0.0)57°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville International Airport, FL5 mi45 minNNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F57°F81%1019.2 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL20 mi48 minN 710.00 miA Few Clouds64°F57°F81%1019.3 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL20 mi49 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F60°F81%1019.1 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL23 mi48 minN 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F59°F78%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from JAX (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N6NE11E9NE8E9
1 day agoNE5N3CalmN3N5E3N6N4NW5NW3CalmCalmNW4N5N8N11N643N4NW4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN5N6N7N7N7N8N8N8N8N10N10N7N6N10N11NE12N11N12N11NE9NE7NE5NE5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Boggy Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATIONSorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATIONSorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.