Wednesday, August16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:30PM Wednesday August 16, 2017 10:23 AM CDT (15:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:03AMMoonset 2:59PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 430 Am Cdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Today..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet then 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west. Seas 1 foot or less then around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet then 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet then 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 430 Am Cdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis.. A high pressure ridge axis will continue to extend west across the northeastern gulf through late week and into the early part of the weekend, maintaining a light to occasionaly moderate west to southwest wind flow. By late in the weekend, a frontal boundary will approach the gulf coast region from the north, with the light flow shifting a little more to the southeast. Little change in seas is expected through the period. Winds and seas will be locally higher near Thunderstorm activity.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 161230
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
730 am cdt Wed aug 16 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
16 12z issuance... No expected changes from previous aviation
forecast package. Isolated convection near the coast this morning
will be developing inland and becoming more widespread during the
course of the day. Some patchy fog over inland areas, mainly light
but dense in isolated locations, dissipating by mid morning and
then possibly redeveloping again tonight. GenerallyVFR conditions
except in and near convection, where MVFR to ocnl ifr conditions
will be possible. Winds primarily light south to southwest today,
light and variable tonight. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 445 am cdt Wed aug 16 2017
near term now through Wednesday night ... Little change to weather
pattern in the near term. A surface high pressure ridge will
continue to stretch west from the atlantic and into the eastern
gulf of mexico and southern portions of ms al and over the western
fl panhandle through tonight, as a weak surface quasi-stationary
front trof persists east-west across northern ms al. Aloft,
ridging does slowly increase across our area, especially tonight.

This building ridge and associated subsidence may limit convection
today slightly from what we've seen the past several days,
especially over southeastern portion of the forecast area. On the
western periphery of the building upper ridge, expect another day
of scattered to numerous showers and storms over central and
western portions of the forecast area. Even though we have had
some degree of ridging (surface and aloft) over the past few days,
thermodynamics have been winning out over overall synoptic
pattern, with the very moist airmass (pwats generally around 2.0
to 2.2 inches), daytime heating and numerous low level boundary
interactions resulting in widespread convection each day. Expect
this to again be the case again today, especially over western
half of forecast area as mentioned earlier. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms will be possible early this morning along and
near the coast, building and developing inland over most of the
area during the course of the day. While localized heavy rainfall
is possible with some of the stronger storms, no widespread severe
weather is anticipated through tonight. Prolific lightning will
be possible, as usual, with any of the thunderstorms. Showers and
storms are expected to largely dissipate across the area after
sunset this evening. Before storms become widespread today, and
outside of rain areas, it will heat up rather quickly, with highs
reaching the lower 90s in most locations, especially interior east
zones, expect for some upper 80s along and near the immediate
coast. Heat indices will likely reach 102-106 degrees in many
locations. Warm and muggy conditions expected tonight, with lows
ranging from the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s to near 80 along
the near the coast. 12 ds
short term Thursday through Friday night ... Mid to upper ridge
of high pressure will continue over the north central gulf region
through Thu then shift west in response to a broad mid to upper
inverted trof moving west over the fl penisula and eastern gulf
fri through Fri evening, then further west over the eastern and
central gulf through early next week. With this pattern less
coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thu and thu
night followed by increasing coverage Fri into the weekend as deep
moisture continues across the region combined with slightly
better lift associated with the upper trof approaching upper from
the east. Less clouds are also expected Thu and early Thu night
followed by increasing clouds late Fri morning through Fri night.

Latest model sounding support this reasoning with lower pwats,
generally below 2 inches occurring over the lower half of the
forecast area during the day on thu, then moistening back to 2
inches or slightly higher by midday Fri continuing into the
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day with slightly better coverage on fri. With surface temps
climbing into the lower to middle 90s combined with surface dewpts
mostly in the mid 70s Thu and Fri high heat indices from 102 to
106 can be expected, though remaining just below advisory
criteria. Periods of heavy rain will continue with the heavier
showers and thunderstorms possibly leading to some minor localized
flooding along with frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty
winds mostly 40 mph or less. Highs temps both Thu and Fri will be
near or slightly above seasonal averages, climbing to the lower
to middle 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s near the
immediate coast. Nighttime lows will continue to be a few degrees
above seasonal averages ranging from the mid 70s inland and the
upper 70s to near 80 along the immediate coast.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ... By Sat the mid to upper
trof is located over the central gulf states and central gulf
leading to better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat then
lowering to mostly scattered Sun into early next week as the
upper system continues to shift west. Periods of very heavy,
frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds mostly 40 mph
or less will continue with the stronger thunderstorms through the
long term period. Better coverage will occur near the coast and
just offshore early each day then shift inland by late morning and
afternoon continuing into the early evening hours. Daytime highs
will be a tad lower or near seasonal levels, upper 80s to lower
90s Sat and Sun then the slightly above average, lower to middle
90s by early next. Night time lows will continue to be a a few
degrees above seasonal averages ranging from the middle to upper
70s through the long term period. 32 ee
marine... A surface high pressure ridge axis will continue to extend
west across the northeastern gulf of mexico through the remainder of
the week and into the early part of the weekend. This will maintain
a light to occasionaly moderate west to southwest wind flow over the
marine area through Saturday. By Sunday, a frontal boundary will
drift south across the southeast states, approaching the gulf coast
region, with the gulf ridge axis weakening and light winds shifting
a little more to the southeast. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue at times over the marine area through
the period, especially during the late night and early morning
hours. Little change in seas expected, generally remaining 2 feet or
less through the period. Winds and seas will however be locally
higher in and around isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi53 min 89°F 87°F1019.2 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi53 min 82°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 45 mi98 min 82°F 79°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi93 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 85°F 86°F1 ft1018.4 hPa (+1.1)76°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi27 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F78°F70%1017.6 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi27 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F75°F72%1017.6 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi30 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F75°F65%1019.2 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi30 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F72°F60%1018.8 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi27 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F75°F72%1019 hPa

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS34NW3CalmW3CalmSW5CalmN4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago3NW4CalmS8
G18
33NW5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3E4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4
2 days agoSW4NW4NW5NW5NW4NW3SE10S5SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3NW3NW5NW4NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:58 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:29 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.811.21.41.61.71.91.921.91.81.71.51.210.70.50.30.20.10.10.20.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:03 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:16 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:01 AM CDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:40 PM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.11.31.51.61.81.91.91.91.81.61.41.20.90.70.50.30.20.10.10.10.20.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.