Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 8:36 AM CDT (13:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:03AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 424 Am Cdt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northwest 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 8 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 424 Am Cdt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis..Strong westerly winds will continue ahead of an approaching front, then become northwesterly tonight. Approaching surface high pressure will weaken the flow into Friday...with onshore flow returning for the weekend as high pressure moves east of the area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 241122 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
622 am cdt Wed may 24 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance... CIGS visbys range fromVFR along to the coast to
low end MVFR ifr north of highway 84. An upper system spinning
over the mid mississippi river valley will push east today through
tonight, bringing continued MVFR ifr CIGS visbys along with light
shra to areas along and north of highway 84, with general MVFR to
vfr south.

16

Prev discussion issued 414 am cdt Wed may 24 2017
near term now through tonight ...

shortwave energy sweeping around the base of a southward moving
upper low located over eastern portions of the central plains pushes
a front (currently located along the lower mississippi river) across
the forecast area today. Looking at the regional radar loop, the
bulk of of the rain is located closer to the upper low (read
northwest of the area), leaving a more isolated to scattered
coverage to our west to move over the area this morning. The current
activity over the land and marine portion of the forecast area
should be along our eastern border by the time the current package
comes into effect. As the day progresses, guidance is consistent
bringing a few isolated shra to northern portions of the forecast
area later today into tonight as the upper system transitions
from southward moving to eastward moving and opens, passing just
north of the area in the process. Am putting highest chance of
rain over eastern portions of the forecast area, mainly this
morning, with a few light shra hanging on over northern portions
into this evening as a result.

Cold air will move over the area behind the front, though with the
south to eastward movement transition of the upper system, am
expecting the initial northwest winds late afternoon to early
evening to transition to westerly, lessening the cold push. With
southeast portions of the forecast are seeing the cooler air last, a
northwest to southeast gradient with respect to highs is expected
today. Highs ranging from mid 70s northwest to low 80s southeast
are expected. Tonight, the cooler air overspreads the entire
forecast area, with overnight lows dropping into the well below
seasonal low to mid 50s.

16
short term Thursday through Friday night ...

the storm system which has plagued the forecast area for the past
several days will finally move east of the region Thursday. A
northwesterly flow aloft in wake of the system will herald a drier
airmass into our area as ridging, both at the surface and aloft,
moves into the forecast area. The result will be drier and slightly
cooler conditions for the 36-48 hour time period.

Shortwave ridging aloft should dampen as it heads into the eastern
united states Friday. The surface high should correspondingly move
east, resulting in a gradual return of low-level moisture to our
corner of the world Friday afternoon. Even so, precipitable water
values should remain below 1 inch, which is below climatological
means for this time of year. With no synoptic scale forcing present,
weather conditions should remain dry, although it'll likely feel a
little more humid. 02
long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

our next storm system will start to take shape Saturday, as a
shortwave trough tries to amplify heading into the plains. The
associated cold front should push into the lower mississippi valley
Sunday, then inch its way toward our forecast area for Monday and
Tuesday.

For Saturday, most of the low-level moisture is expected to pool
along the surface front extending from the midsouth into the
arklatex. And while precipitable water values approach seasonal
values for our area, any convective development will be due to
mesoscale processes. Because of the very limited nature of any
convective development, the odds of seeing showers thunderstorms
will remain below 15% Saturday.

Things change for Sunday through Tuesday as the front approaches and
subsequently stalls. At least a scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected through the period, with a weakening
diurnal trend anticipated by Tuesday. 02
marine...

strong westerly winds will transition to north-westerly, then ease
into Thursday night as surface high pressure moves toward and
over the area. Light to moderate onshore flow returns by Friday
as the surface high moves east of the area. A passing upper system
will bring a temporary increase in the onshore flow Saturday into
Saturday night, but by Sunday, the flow returns to a light
onshore.

16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through this evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Thursday for gmz650-655-670-
675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi48 min 74°F 80°F1002.7 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi66 min W 6 73°F 1002.7 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi48 min 78°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi46 min NW 14 G 16 75°F 78°F4 ft1002.2 hPa (-0.4)67°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 50 mi66 min W 13 72°F 1003 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi1.7 hrsNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F70°F94%1000.7 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi40 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F69°F94%1001.1 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi43 minW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F68°F82%1002.6 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi98 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F80%1001.8 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi40 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F68°F82%1002.6 hPa

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5
G18
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CalmSW43SW9
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SW744S544SW453S3NW3CalmNW3NW4
1 day agoE333SW7S7S6CalmSW3SW4S43CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmE4E4SE3S9SW7
2 days agoNE5N4Calm5S9S63S5S53CalmCalmNW4NW5CalmSE3CalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmN4E4

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:41 AM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:24 PM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.40.50.70.80.91.11.31.41.51.61.61.61.41.210.70.40.2-0-0.2-0.2-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:03 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:39 AM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.60.70.911.11.31.51.61.71.71.71.51.310.70.40.2-0-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.