Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Fontaine, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 5:47PM Friday February 22, 2019 1:56 AM CST (07:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 9:43AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 947 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon cst Friday...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of dense fog. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the evening. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 947 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis..A light onshore flow will continue through Friday night. Expect increasing onshore flow Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. This next cold front is expected to push east across the marine area by early Sunday with a moderate to strong offshore flow in its wake. Areas of fog, dense at times, will likely continue over the near shore coastal waters and areas bays through the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Fontaine CDP, AL
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location: 30.57, -88.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 220548
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1148 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... Widespread dense fog near the coast will persist
through mid-morning as visibilities and ceilings have fallen to
lifr to vlifr at mob, bfm, and pns. Visibilities should slowly
improve by 16z with ceilings improving to MVFR through the
afternoon. Southerly winds increase to 8-12 knots in the afternoon
with scattered rain showers throughout the day. Expect coastal fog
to redevelop again after sunset. 07 mb

Prev discussion issued 628 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... Fog will persist overnight and through mid-morning
along the coast. Visibilities and ceilings are already lifr to
vlifr at many coastal locations like pns and bfm as of 00z. A bit
inland from the coast at sites like mob, visibilities and ceilings
are MVFR to ifr as of 00z, but will drop to lifr or vlifr before
midnight. Visibilities should begin to improve by mid-morning
with ceilings improving to MVFR by early afternoon. Southerly
winds increase to 8-12 knots by early afternoon. 07 mb
prev discussion... Issued 405 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
near term now through Friday ... For tonight, main forecast issue
will be the continuation of widespread fog, which will be dense at
many locations. Periods of dense fog persisted for most of the day
near coastal sections of alabama and the western florida panhandle.

With little change in overall pattern (onshore warm and moist flow
across cool near shore waters), and with short range hi-res models
all indicating continued dense fog along the coast slowly spreading
inland once again tonight, we went ahead and issued another dense
fog advisory for all of our coastal counties as well as stone and
george counties of mississippi for tonight through Friday morning.

Visibilities across much of the that area will drop down below one
quarter of a mile tonight through Friday morning.

Other than the fog, expect some isolated to widely scattered showers
across the forecast area tonight and Friday, especially up over our
northwestern counties. Rainfall will generally be light, and no
severe weather is anticipated in the near term.

Temperatures remain well above normal for this time of the year
through the near term period. Lows tonight only a couple degrees shy
of record high min temps for the date, mainly in the mid 60s across
the area. MAX temps on Friday will be approaching record highs in
some areas, ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s over inland
areas and mid 70s at the coast. 12 ds
short term Friday night through Sunday night ... Friday night
through Saturday night, a strong upper shortwave trough moves from
over the desert southwest to the southern plains before taking an
northeast path on the west side of an upper ridge that has built
north over the eastern seaboard. The upper system strengthens and
becomes negative tilted Saturday into Saturday night as it heads
towards the great lakes. A surface low associated with this system
develops over the western central plains and heads northeast with
the upper dynamics, with a trailing cold front moving southeast
across the surrounding region late Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night, and across the forecast area Saturday night into
early Sunday. Southerly low level flow ahead of the frontal passage
will continue to increase moisture levels over the area, with
guidance advertising precip h20 values rising to around 1.8" ahead
of the approaching front Saturday afternoon. Sunday into Sunday
night, a cooler, drier airmass moves over the area for the rest of
the weekend.

For the short term, the biggest item to deal with is the chance of
severe weather Saturday into Saturday night. Guidance is advertising
mlcapes rising to 500-700 j kg. Bulk shears values rise to 50-60
knots Saturday afternoon, enough for a few strong to marginally
severe storms as a line of thunderstorms move across the area late
Saturday afternoon Saturday night. Helping to limit the chance of
severe weather in our piece of the conus, the bulk of the mid upper
level support passes just northwest of the forecast area, with the
tail of a 45knot low level jet passing over northwestern portions of
the forecast area the only upper support indicated at this time. At
this point, there is a marginal risk of mainly damaging winds over
areas northwest of i65, with a slight risk to the northwest of the
forecast area.

The next important item to deal with is fog development, especially
near the coast and coastal bays. Guidance continues to advertise
coastal fog forming Friday night, with stronger winds limiting
development Saturday night as the front approaches. Have put in
areas of fog developing near the coast Friday night into the
forecast.

Not to forget, temperatures well above seasonal norms are expected
through most of the short term, until cooler air moves over the
forecast area behind the front's passage. With record highs for the
area in the 80f + - range, a few records may be tied or broken
Friday and Saturday. Lows Friday night are expected to be well above
seasonal norms, with the front bringing lows closer to, but still
above seasonal for Saturday night. A cooler, but still above
seasonal day is expected Sunday, due to the slowing of the cold
advection due to the upper dynamics moving off quickly. It's not
until Sunday night that near seasonal temperatures return to the
area as winds settle with the dry airmass over the area.

16
long term Monday through Thursday ... The front which passed over
the area during the weekend stalls over the central gulf, with the
upper ridge over the eastern seaboard moving off over the open
atlantic. An approaching shortwave moving east through the now zonal
flow brings increasing coverage of isentropic upglide rainshowers
early Tuesday with elevated thunderstorms mixing in Tuesday night
through Wednesday before the rain moves off Wednesday night.

Temperatures rebound to above seasonal seasonal, but with the
influence of the upper ridge present in the short term gone, am not
expected the near record temperatures we saw early in the forecast.

16
marine... A light onshore flow will continue through Friday night.

Expect increasing onshore flow late Saturday and Saturday evening as
a cold front approaches from the west. This next cold front is
expected to push east across the marine area by early Sunday with a
moderate to strong offshore flow expected in its wake. Areas of fog,
dense at times, will likely continue over the near shore coastal
waters and areas bays through the remainder of the week. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Dense fog advisory until noon cst Friday for alz261>266.

High rip current risk until 6 am cst Friday for alz265-266.

Fl... Dense fog advisory until noon cst Friday for flz201>206.

High rip current risk until 6 am cst Friday for flz202-204-206.

Ms... Dense fog advisory until noon cst Friday for msz078-079.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until noon cst Friday for gmz630>636-650-655.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBPA1 3 mi38 min 65°F 65°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 6 mi38 min S 7 G 8.9 69°F 62°F1017.5 hPa
PTOA1 8 mi38 min 67°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 10 mi44 min 67°F 58°F1017.4 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 17 mi71 min 71°F 1017 hPa70°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 18 mi56 min SE 9.9 67°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.3)
WBYA1 18 mi38 min 70°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 22 mi86 min SE 8.9 69°F 1017.3 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 22 mi56 min ESE 12 G 12 66°F 1017.1 hPa (+0.0)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 23 mi131 min SE 8.9 66°F 1018 hPa66°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi38 min SE 14 G 16 67°F 1017.4 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 29 mi44 min 65°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 33 mi38 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 66°F 1017.7 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi46 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 1018.2 hPa66°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 48 mi38 min E 1 G 2.9 67°F 64°F1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL5 mi63 minS 80.50 miFog70°F70°F100%1017.5 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL11 mi60 minSE 40.25 miFog70°F70°F100%1017.2 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL14 mi61 minSE 61.50 miFog/Mist70°F69°F100%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3S7SE10S10S11S9S9
G16
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2 days agoN10NE11NE11NE11NE11NE9E12
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Tide / Current Tables for Fowl River, Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama
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Fowl River
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM CST     0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:35 AM CST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:53 PM CST     0.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:22 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:10 PM CST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.90.90.80.80.70.50.40.30.20.20.30.40.50.50.60.70.70.70.60.50.50.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:41 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:25 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:31 AM CST     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:42 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:12 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:45 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:22 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:25 PM CST     0.50 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.50.50.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.