Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Fontaine, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:18PM Thursday October 18, 2018 12:42 PM CDT (17:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 1029 Am Cdt Thu Oct 18 2018
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming north 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast 18 to 23 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..Northeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1029 Am Cdt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong northeast to easterly wind flow will persist over the marine area through early Friday. A light easterly wind flow is expected late Friday through early Saturday as a surface ridge of high pressure over the mid atlantic states shifts east over the western atlantic. Northerly winds and seas will build late Saturday through early Sunday in the wake of a strong cold front that moves south over the northern gulf early Saturday night. A moderate to strong easterly flow is expected late Sunday through early next week as a strong surface ridge of high pressure in the wake of the front shifts east.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Fontaine CDP, AL
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location: 30.57, -88.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 181729 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1229 pm cdt Thu oct 18 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
18z issuance...VFR conditions through 19.15z followed by MVFR to
vfr conditions through 19.18z. Expect increasing low clouds
generally from the east by mid morning fri. A few light showers
will also be possible along the coast and offshore by mid morning
fri. Winds will be 5 to 8 kts through about 19.15z becoming east
through 19.18z. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 1037 am cdt Thu oct 18 2018
discussion... Updated for latest marine discussion below.

Marine... The small craft advisory has been canceled. A moderate
to occasionally strong northeast to easterly wind flow will
persist over the marine area through early Friday. Small craft
should exercise caution through early fri. A light easterly wind
flow is expected late Fri through early Sat as a surface ridge of
high pressure over the mid atlantic states shifts east over the
western atlantic. Northerly winds and seas will build late sat
through early Sun in the wake of a strong cold front that moves
south over the northern gulf early Sat night. A moderate to strong
easterly flow is expected late Sun through early next week as a
strong surface ridge of high pressure in the wake of the front
shifts east. Small craft advisories will likely be required in the
wake of the front late Sat night into sun. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 625 am cdt Thu oct 18 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... A mix of Sun and clouds possible today but bases of
any CIGS are expected to be at high levels. Vsby ok.VFR
conditions next 24 hrs. Northeast winds today could be gusty at
times, around 20 kts. 10
prev discussion... Issued 417 am cdt Thu oct 18 2018
near term now through Thursday night ... Surface front has
moved south out into the northern gulf this morning with surface
high pressure from the upper mid-west to the mid south to expand
eastward in the near term. Post frontal clouds have decreased some
in areal coverage over much of the local area, but do see some
eastward movement of more clouds out of southern mississippi and
louisiana in the mean high level west to southwest flow aloft
given upper ridge extending west over the gulf. Thus, expect
clouds to mix in with Sun at times today. A temperature forecast
in the early going, with daytime highs ranging in the mid 70s far
northwest zones to the lower half of the 80s over the southeast
portions. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s interior to
mid 60s coast. 10
short term Friday through Saturday night ... An upper ridge
over the northern gulf and southeastern states retreats well to
the south in response to a longwave trof which develops over the
eastern states through Saturday. A surface low well to the north,
associated with the upper trof, brings a strong cold front from
the plains and into the region during the period, moving through
the forecast area on Saturday. A series of shortwaves move across
the region on Friday ahead of the approaching front, and are
expected to lead to development of a weak surface trof over near
the area. Modest isentropic lift associated with this feature
looks sufficient to support mainly slight chance pops over the
southern portion of the area on Friday then most of area Friday
night. Good chance to likely pops follow for Saturday as the
strong cold front moves through the area. Highs will be several
degrees above normal on Friday and range from the lower 80s well
inland to mid 80s over the remainder of the area. Highs on
Saturday range from the lower 80s over the southern portion to mid
70s well inland. Lows Friday night will be mild and mostly in the
mid 60s, then much cooler overnight lows follow for Saturday
night in the wake of the cold front and range from around 50 well
inland to the upper 50s at the coast. 29
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... The longwave trof moves
off into the western atlantic on Sunday followed by a fairly zonal
flow developing over the region by Monday. A large dome of cool
high pressure will have shifted from the plains and into the
eastern states on Sunday, then leaves a surface ridge over the
southeast states on Monday while beginning to shift off into the
western atlantic. Another upper trof moves across the northeast
states Monday night into Tuesday, and an associated surface low
brings a trailing cold front from the plains and into the interior
southeast states. The remainder of the forecast is complex due to
an upper trof, or series of strong shortwaves, which advance from
the baja region and into texas on Wednesday. There is a lot of
uncertainty with this pattern, but a surface low is expected to
develop near over texas in response along with a possible warm
front developing along or near the northern gulf coast. Have
continued with a dry forecast through Monday, then slight chance
to chance pops return to most of the area on Tuesday. For
Wednesday, have gone with good chance to chance pops for now and
will continue to monitor. The coolest portion of the period will
be Sunday and Sunday night as cool high pressure builds into the
region. Highs on Sunday range from the mid 60s well inland to
around 70 over the southern portion. Sunday night will be in the
lower 40s over interior areas with mid to upper 40s closer to the
coast. Daytime highs return to more seasonable values generally
in the mid 70s by Tuesday while overnight lows become fairly mild.

29
marine... A light to moderate northeast to east flow continues to
close out the week as surface high pressure over the mississippi
valley makes steady eastward progress into the appalachians
tonight and then off the mid-atlantic coast Friday. Latest gridded
wind fields support maintaining the small craft advisories
through early today, likely to be replaced by small craft caution
headlines in those zones where criteria is met. A strong cold
front makes passage on Saturday with a strong offshore flow and a
building trend in seas returning by Saturday night when small
craft advisories may become required. Advisories potentially
linger into the remainder of the weekend. Scattered showers and
storms early in the weekend as the front approaches from the
northwest. 10

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBPA1 3 mi42 min 76°F 57°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 6 mi42 min NNE 8.9 G 13 73°F 78°F1025.3 hPa (-0.5)
PTOA1 8 mi42 min 75°F 54°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 10 mi42 min 79°F 80°F1025.1 hPa (-0.5)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 10 mi72 min NNW 13 74°F 1024.7 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 11 mi42 min N 6 74°F 1026.1 hPa (-0.3)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 17 mi57 min 78°F 1025 hPa56°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 18 mi72 min NNE 13 71°F 1025.1 hPa
WBYA1 18 mi42 min 78°F
GBRM6 20 mi102 min 77°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 22 mi72 min NE 8 75°F 1024.4 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 22 mi42 min N 12 G 13 72°F 1024.7 hPa (+0.0)57°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 23 mi72 min NE 15 72°F 1025.4 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 23 mi57 min NE 8.9 76°F 1026 hPa56°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi42 min NNE 12 G 13 74°F 1024.6 hPa (+0.0)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 29 mi42 min 77°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 33 mi42 min NE 12 G 14 74°F 1025.6 hPa (+0.0)
PPTA1 35 mi42 min 76°F 1024.4 hPa (-0.7)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi32 min NNE 14 G 18 75°F 1024.2 hPa58°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 48 mi42 min N 1.9 G 6 79°F 80°F1024.5 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL5 mi49 minNNE 7 G 1710.00 miFair78°F55°F47%1025.5 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL11 mi1.8 hrsNE 810.00 miA Few Clouds74°F53°F48%1025.7 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL14 mi67 minNE 710.00 miFair77°F53°F44%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N6N10N9N10N10N11N9N9
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1 day agoSE8SE10SE9SE9S7S4S6CalmNW4N5N6--N7N7N5N9N8N9N7N8N9N8N9N7
2 days agoSE7SE8SE9S8S5SE5S3S3SE3SE3SE5CalmE5SE4E6CalmNE4N3NE4NE4N5E4SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Fowl River, Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama
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Fowl River
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:42 AM CDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 03:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:13 PM CDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.41.41.51.61.71.71.61.61.51.41.21.110.90.80.70.60.60.60.70.81

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:39 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:37 PM CDT     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:26 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.10.90.70.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-1-1.2-1.3-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.50.70.91

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.