Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:18PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 1:51 AM CST (07:51 UTC) Moonrise 11:45AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1104 Pm Cst Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cst Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..West winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northwest 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming north. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Thursday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas around 2 feet building to around 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Friday..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Friday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Showers likely.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Showers likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1104 Pm Cst Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis..Patchy dense fog will continue over inland bays and sounds and the near shore gulf waters ahead of a cold front that moves across the region late this evening and overnight. A moderate to occasionally strong offshore wind flow is expected in the wake of the front late tonight through Tuesday morning. A moderate offshore flow will persist over the marine area through midweek.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton city, FL
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location: 30.61, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 230537 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1137 pm cst Mon jan 22 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... MostlyVFR conditions through 24.00z. Still expect
ifr to lifr CIGS and visibilities in low stratus and fog at kpns
through about 23.08z ahead of a cold front that is moving across
the forecast area late this evening and overnight. Winds will
shift to the northwest at 8 to 12 knots in the wake of the front
late this evening and overnight and continue through 24.00z,
diminishing to 3 to 6 knots through 24.06z. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 910 pm cst Mon jan 22 2018
discussion... See updated information for land and marine areas below.

Update... Have updated to remove slight chance pops over the
easternmost portion of the area with dry conditions expected for
the remainder of the night. Made other minor adjustments. 29
marine... Have extended the marine dense fog advisory for the
mobile bay area and the adjacent near shore waters until 05z. A
cold front currently advancing across southeast mississippi will
move through later this evening and scour out the fog where the
advisory is in effect. 29
prev discussion... Issued 601 pm cst Mon jan 22 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... Mostly MVFR CIGS and visibilities through about
23.04z followed byVFR conditions through 24.00z. A short period
of low stratus and fog will also be possible through 24.04z ahead
of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Winds will be
south to southwest at 8 to 12 knots through about 23.04z shifting
northwest late this evening through 24.00z. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 535 pm cst Mon jan 22 2018
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Have updated to lower pops to slight chance over the
eastern third of the area based on current radar trends and the
latest high resolution guidance. No other major changes. 29
prev discussion... Issued 400 pm cst Mon jan 22 2018
near term now through Tuesday ... Surface analysis indicates that
the surface cold front is making its way into east central ms and
southeast la. Winds are veering southwesterly to westerly with
dewpoints falling into the 30s and 40s behind the boundary. The
front is entering our far northwestern zones as of 3 pm, with clouds
beginning to decrease over wayne and choctaw counties. Overcast
skies and moist southerly flow otherwise persists over much of our
area ahead of the front. Radar indicates convection has become
scattered in nature over much of the region, except for a zone of
better coverage near the northwest fl panhandle coast. Ascent
associated with the shortwave trough axis will become focused over
the eastern CWA ahead of the approaching front through the rest of
this afternoon, and this is where the best chance of convection will
be through 00z. Pops will meanwhile quickly decrease over western
and northern areas as the front moves across this portion of the
region through late afternoon. We still cannot rule out an isolated
strong storm or two over the eastern CWA through the rest of the
afternoon where residual weak MLCAPE values mostly below 400 j kg
will persist, but the overall lack of instability will preclude an
organized severe threat.

There could be some patchy fog develop near the immediate coast late
this afternoon into early this evening prior to the passage of the
front. Otherwise, winds will gradually turn west to northwest
following frontal passage late this evening into the overnight hours
with a cooler and drier airmass arriving in the wake of this
feature. Sunny skies and dry conditions are expected Tuesday
underneath dry zonal flow aloft. 21
short term Tuesday night through Thursday night ... Upper level
zonal flow along with building high pressure will keep conditions
dry and cool through Thursday. Although this airmass will not be
anywhere near as cold as the past few systems. Clear skies can be
expected with temperatures near seasonable levels. 13
long term Friday through Monday ... An upper trough will develop
across the plains and move east late in the week. As this system
approaches, moisture levels will increase across the area as
southerly flow develops. This will bring increasing rain chances
from the west on Friday. Rain becomes widespread Saturday and
Saturday night as an area of low pressure develops and moves east
ahead of the trough. The GFS and ECMWF differ on how strong the
low will and where it tracks as they handle the upper shortwave
differently. The euro is much more amplified which allows the low
to move across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, GFS has a weaker shortwave and keeps the low track
across the gulf. We have left thunder out of the forecast for now,
but will be something to watch to see how it develops late in the
period. 13
marine... Moist southerly flow over the cool nearshore waters
will maintain potential for areas of dense marine fog over mobile
bay, the mississippi sound, perdido bay, and the adjacent offshore
waters out 20 nm through early this evening. The nam, rap, and hrrr
all show continued potential for areas of fog over these areas, with
relatively high probabilities for fog also indicated on the sref.

Will keep the dense fog advisory in effect for these areas until 9
pm. A drier airmass then arrives with increasing northwest winds this
evening following the passage of a cold front. Winds will be at
advisory levels offshore, so will have a small craft advisory in
effect for the gulf waters out 60 nm from midnight tonight through 9
am Tuesday. A moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow will
continue Wednesday and Thursday, before becoming more easterly
Friday and into the weekend. 21

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Tuesday for gmz650-655-670-
675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 17 mi51 min NW 8 G 13 61°F 51°F1015.5 hPa (+0.9)
PPTA1 36 mi51 min 58°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.0)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 44 mi66 min 55°F 1016 hPa54°F
WBYA1 44 mi51 min 59°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 48 mi51 min N 2.9 54°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL7 mi55 minNW 8 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F59°F84%1014 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL8 mi55 minWNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F57°F93%1014.1 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi58 minWNW 910.00 miFair61°F57°F90%1015.6 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL22 mi1.9 hrsW 510.00 miA Few Clouds64°F63°F98%1014.4 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL23 mi55 minNW 7 miFair60°F55°F86%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E7SE8SE9SE10SE9SE12SE8SE9S10S11S13S20
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1 day agoE4E7E5E9E7E4E4E6E7SE12SE11SE11SE11SE10SE7CalmE3E6E5SE5E5E6E4E4
2 days agoN4N3N3NE4NE3NE3E7E3E6E8SE7S10S6S7SE6S5CalmCalmCalmE4E5E4E5E5

Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Milton
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:14 AM CST     0.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:45 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM CST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:16 PM CST     0.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:27 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.20.100-000.10.20.30.40.50.50.50.50.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:10 AM CST     0.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:45 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:54 AM CST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:12 PM CST     0.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:28 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.20.10.10-000.10.20.30.40.50.50.50.50.40.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.