Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 5:43PM Saturday February 23, 2019 7:04 PM CST (01:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:22PMMoonset 10:16AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 340 Pm Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..South winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Areas of fog. Isolated showers in the evening. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 13 to 18 knots becoming north. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Isolated showers in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 7 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming east 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 340 Pm Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis..A moderate onshore flow continues over the marine area through this evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Frontal passage late tonight and early Sunday leads to a moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow Sunday through late Monday. Fog lingers near shore, including bays and sounds through this evening, but disperses following the frontal passage. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and embedded Thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the cold front tonight.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton city, FL
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location: 30.61, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 240001 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
601 pm cst Sat feb 23 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance... A combination of ifr and lifr ceilings will
continue into the evening as a cold front approaches from the
west. Some fog is possible along the coast. Winds will continue
out of the south at 8 to 12 knots with some gusts 15 to 20 knots.

Winds will weaken into the evening; however, 40 knot 2 kft winds
will allow for 30 knots of southwesterly low level windshear ahead
of the front. By midnight, the front will approach the i-65
corridor with a thin line of showers and thunderstorms along the
leading edge. Behind the front, winds will shift out of the west-
northwest at 5 to 10 knots. This will lead to 25 to 30 knots of
northwesterly low level windshear prior to day break. Ceilings
will begin to rise to MVFR andVFR by early morning. Bb 03

Prev discussion issued 403 pm cst Sat feb 23 2019
near term now through Sunday ... Upper air analysis shows
a vigorous storm system exiting the southern plains, with a
strongly defined negative tilt in the geo-potential height field
contributing to a large area of diffluence from the oh river
valley to the mid- south. Rounding the base of this system, a
potent northeast to southwest oriented upper level speed MAX was
observed and has intensified since this am (h30=> 120 to 140kts
and h50=> ~ 100 kts) aligned over the red river valley of ok tx.

Low level h85 south to southwesterly jet was responding and
continues to increase over the deep south with a large area of 45
to 55 kts over the mid-south. Bulk shear is more than adequate for
deep severe convection in the warm sector which is unstable,
where surface based CAPE has increased to ~ 2500 j kg up across
ms. Deep convection has been increasing over ms this afternoon
within the zone of most enhanced upper level divergence due to the
evolving negative tilt of the upper storm system exiting the
plains. The highest threat of organized severe storms, containing
damaging winds and perhaps long track tornadoes is still focused
within a zone from western tn to northeast la, where the storm
prediction center outlines an enhanced to moderate risk for the
remainder of the day and going into tonight. Convective watches
are in place to our northwest within the greatest risk areas. For
our area, there has been a slight eastward shift in the slight
risk area covering areas along and west of a line from northwest
clarke co. To new augusta ms. From there, little change in the
severe weather outlook is noted with a marginal risk being
maintained to the i-10 corridor.

The latest convective allowing models (cams) are not very
impressive at all with their respective coverages of storms going
into tonight and that appears to be primarily a function of the
fact that the surface focus is along the warm front well to our
north. Also, with the strongest upper forcing and shear being up
across the mid-south, storms moving into our region look to be
scattered at best. As far as timing, higher resolution guidance is
slower with some solutions suggesting that the convective line
will not enter the northwest zones till around midnight. At any
rate, there remains some potential for localized damaging wind
gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado in the slight risk area as
this area will be positioned on the tail end of the best upper low
level jet. Stay tuned. The severe weather threat is forecast to
be ending late in the night as best dynamics shift off to the
north and east and the environment begins to stabilize. Cold
front is progged to make passage during the pre-dawn hours, also
bringing an end to the severe weather threat due to wind shift.

Before then, there are also indications of fog reformation, which
looks to be more focused along the coast. Some of the fog could be
locally dense.

After a period of unseasonable to near record warmth, daytime
highs on Sunday trend much lower. 10
short term Sunday night through Tuesday night ... Surface high
pressure ridge will continue to build into the region from the
north Sunday night, allowing a cold and dry airmass to filter into
the forecast area. With northerly winds and clear skies, expect
overnight lows to dip into the mid to upper 30s most inland
locations, with low to mid 40s along the coastal sections. We will
get to enjoy another sun-filled day on Monday as the surface ridge
slides eastward across the southeast CONUS and zonal flow aloft
remains over the region. Despite a continuation of cold air
advection due to a northeasterly wind flow, plenty of sunshine
will allow daytime high temperatures Monday to be near to just
above normal, ranging from 65 to 70 degrees. The surface ridge
will shift over the western atlantic, with a weak return flow on
the backside bringing increasing moisture and clouds overnight,
with a slight chance of showers impinging along the coast late
Tuesday night that may move slightly inland across the coastal
areas. This precipitation coverage will expand inland throughout
the day Tuesday and Tuesday night as a weak fast-moving upper
shortwave moves over the southern plains Tuesday and Tuesday
evening, and over the lower mississippi river region late Tuesday
night. 22
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... We will continue to see
a progression of several weak fast-moving upper shortwave and
disturbances exiting the southern plains and moving over the deep
south throughout the long term, with mainly isolated to scattered
showers forecast each day. At the moment, the best chance of
precipitation, with numerous showers possible, should occur on
Thursday with the arrival of the strongest upper level impulse and
deepest moisture. Temperatures will remain above normal, with
highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, and lows in the 50s.

22
marine... Main hazards for marine craft in the very near term will
be patchy to areas of fog, locally dense reducing visibility to
less than a mile. Following frontal passage late tonight, fog is
dispersed. A strong north to northeast flow late Sunday into
Monday favors the issuance of small craft advisories on the
afternoon package. 10

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk until midnight cst tonight for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk until midnight cst tonight for flz202-204-
206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 9 pm Sunday to noon cst Monday for
gmz630>635.

Dense fog advisory until midnight cst tonight for gmz630>633-650.

Small craft advisory from 9 pm Sunday to 3 pm cst Monday for
gmz650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 17 mi34 min S 9.9 G 14 70°F 68°F1015.6 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi34 min 73°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 44 mi79 min 74°F 1015 hPa72°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 47 mi24 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 68°F 1015.8 hPa67°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL7 mi68 minS 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1014.1 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL8 mi68 minS 1310.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1014 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi71 minSSE 97.00 miOvercast72°F69°F91%1015.5 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL22 mi2.1 hrsSE 105.00 miFog/Mist69°F67°F94%1015.4 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL23 mi68 minS 83.00 miFog/Mist70°F70°F100%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E8SE10SE9SE9SE8SE9SE8SE5E6SE8E5SE8S7S8S8S15
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1 day agoE6SE4E3E6E7SE9SE8SE6E6E5E6SE7E6SE7SE4E8SE9E9SE9SE11E9E8E11E7
2 days agoS10S10S9S9S8S8S6S7S4S4S3E4E3SE5SE8SE7SE9SE9SE8SE11SE11E7SE6SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Milton
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:08 AM CST     0.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM CST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:16 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:54 PM CST     0.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:21 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:04 AM CST     0.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM CST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:17 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:50 PM CST     0.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:22 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.