Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:26PM Thursday April 27, 2017 2:14 AM CDT (07:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:16AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1034 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming south. Seas 6 to 7 feet building to 7 to 9 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 20 to 25 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 8 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 9 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 11 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 5 to 8 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1034 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis..Southerly winds and seas will build into tonight as a cold front approaches. Showers and Thunderstorms will move across the marine area tonight into early Thursday. Winds and seas will rebuild late in the week into the weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west...crossing over the area Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton city, FL
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location: 30.61, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 270455
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
1155 pm cdt Wed apr 26 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance...

MVFR conditions are expected to transition to ifr overnight as an
ongoing line of thunderstorms moves in from the west. Residual
showers and storms should be entering the eastern half of the cwa
by late morning. West of the alabama river expect south winds to
back westerly after the storm passes while winds east of mobile
bay and along the coast should remain southerly throughout the
daylight hours. Dj/17 &&

Prev discussion /issued 1143 pm cdt Wed apr 26 2017/
discussion... See updated information for land and marine areas below.

Update... Regional radar mosaic is detecting that the line of
showers and thunderstorms has moved into northeast and east
central mississippi and is set to cross the state line into
northwest and west central alabama. Further to the south, a broken
line of showers and few thunderstorms extends southwest into
southeast louisiana. The southern extent of this line is still
forecast to enter into our inland southeast mississippi counties
after midnight as the line as a whole moves east at 30 to 35 mph.

Made adjustments to the forecast grids and public products to
better represent the timing of the showers and thunderstorms as
they advance eastward across the entire forecast area overnight
through early Thursday afternoon. Latest interrogation of the near
storm environment ahead of the line indicates that some of the
storms have the potential of becoming strong with thunderstorm
wind gusts up to 45 mph being the only threat across the northern
half of the forecast area. The severe weather threat has
diminished, so the issuance of any severe thunderstorm watches
appears unlikely. The shower and thunderstorm coverage is
expected to decrease slightly as they move east as well.

In addition, a long period onshore swell and moderate to strong
onshore wind flow will maintain a high risk of rip currents
through Thursday night. Therefore, the coastal hazard message
product has been updated to extend the high rip current risk
another 12 hours. Updates sent. /22
marine... Northern mobile bay has been added to the small craft
advisory as middle bay lighthouse has been reporting sustained
winds between 20 to 25 knots, and with a southerly flow these
winds should extend well into northern mobile bay. Also, the small
craft advisory for the gulf waters has been extended in time
through Thursday afternoon as the strong onshore wind flow is
expected to persist ahead of the cold front with seas remaining
above 6 feet before subsiding to small craft exercise caution
levels late Thursday afternoon. /22
prev discussion... /issued 652 pm cdt Wed apr 26 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance...

currently ongoing MVFR conditions will deteriorate overnight as a
line of thunderstorms moves in from the west. Storms should be
entering the eastern half of the CWA by late morning. West of the
alabama river expect south winds to back westerly after the storm
passes while winds east of mobile bay and along the coast should
remain southerly throughout the daylight hours. Dj/17
prev discussion... /issued 328 pm cdt Wed apr 26 2017/
near term /now through Thursday/... A lobe of shortwave energy
rotates around a semi-stationary upper low over the northern plains
tonight, pushing a weakening front across the forecast area later
tonight, then as the upper dynamics quickly move off, the front
stalls along i65 Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are a given
tonight, especially over the northern half of the forecast area. As
the lobe swings around the upper low, a combination of 50-60 knot
low level jet combined with mid and upper level jet dynamics mixing
in help to create a chance for severe weather. The best combination
of severe ingredients remain northwest of the forecast area (along
and northwest of i59), but with guidance advertising mu-capes up to
2000 j/kg during the evening into overnight hours along with 0-3km
helicities ranging from around 100-200m^2/s^2 along the coast to 300-
400m^2/s^2 closer to the i20 corridor, SPC has put the northwestern
corner of the forecast area (northwest of a NW perry co, ms to
central wilcox co, al line) in a slight risk, with areas northwest
of a SW mobile co to SE covington co line in a marginal risk.

Timing remains the same, with the line ahead of the front crossing
over southeast mississippi during the 04z-08z time frame, with
areas east of the mississippi/alabama line being affected in the
08z-12z time frame. May see a strong to severe storm early
Thursday morn over the eastern third of the forecast area, but
with the upper support moving quickly off, am expecting these to
be isolated, with the chance of severe weather slowly easing after
midnight.

Looking at temps, a strong to moderate southerly flow setting up
overnight ahead of the front will keep temps well above seasonal,
but with the front starting to bring some cooler air along with the
rain-cooled air remaining over the forecast area, a nw-se gradient
of lows tonight is expected, with around 60 along the western border
of the forecast area, low 70s along the coast and inland over the
florida panhandle. As the rain ends Thursday and skies clear, am
expecting enough daytime heating for highs to rise into the low 80s,
upper 70s along the immediate coast. /16
short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/... An upper
trof amplifies significantly over the central states through the
period as a series of strong jet streaks rotate through the
pattern. A stalled frontal boundary over the forecast area moves
north of the region as a warm front Thursday night into Friday
while a surface low develops over the southern plains in response
to the strengthening upper trof. The surface low moves to near the
mid mississippi river valley by late Saturday night and brings a
trailing cold front to near the sabine river valley. An initially
weak low level southerly flow gradually strengthens during the
period and expands to encompass a deeper portion of the
atmosphere later in the period. Deep layer moisture will initially
be about 75% of seasonable normal then ranges from 100-135% of
normal through Saturday, followed by the beginning of a more
substantial increase late Saturday night of 130-150% of normal
ahead of the approaching front. After dry conditions Thursday
night, have included slight chance pops for much of the area on
Friday as daytime heating may produce isolated convection. Slight
chance to chance pops follow for Saturday, with the highest pops
over the western portion where better deep layer moisture and
modest isentropic lift will be present.

The 850 mb jet will be initially light then increases to 25-35
knots Saturday afternoon, then further to 40-50 knots late
Saturday night, with the highest values over the western portion.

Despite the increasing shear Saturday night and indicated mlcape
values of 900-1700 j/kg (highest near coast and western portion),
model soundings show a warm layer from about 925-675 mb resulting
in 1000-700 mb lapse rates of 4 c/km and forcing will be weak. So,
expect that the bulk of the instability will be well elevated and
have gone just with slight chance pops for the western portion of
the area Saturday night but will continue to monitor. /29
long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... A well defined upper trof
over the central states takes on a negative tilt while moving off
to the northeast, and evolves into an upper low Sunday night into
Monday while moving into the great lakes region. The right
entrance region of a 120+ knot upper jet brings enhanced upper
level divergence across the forecast area from late Sunday
afternoon into the overnight hours, followed quickly by a cold
front moving eastward through the area. This setup results in
strong deep layer forcing shifting eastward across the forecast
area late Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours, likely
manifested as an active squall line with isolated to scattered
storms ahead of the line. A 45-55 knot 850 mb jet will result in
high shear values with CAPE values of at least 750-1200 j/kg
coincident with the convection. While model soundings show no
limitations regarding lapse rates, one concern is that the
profiles are moist through a deep layer which suggests weaker
downdraft production with the squall line. That said, leading
convection will have access to dry air aloft. Overall, this
continues to look like an event capable of all modes of severe
weather - and may be a significant event. Locally heavy rainfall
of at least 1-3 inches will be possible given very high deep
layer moisture with precipitable water values of 2.0-2.4 inches,
up to nearly 250% of normal, and strong deep layer forcing.

As this system moves through, have gone with the highest pops
over the western third of the area on Sunday, then mainly
categorical pops follow for Sunday night with chance pops for the
eastern half of the area on Monday. Much drier air flows into the
region Monday into Monday night, then recovers midweek and will
have a chance for rain returning by Wednesday. /29
marine... A passing upper system will leave a quickly weakening
front stretching NE along i65 Thursday into Thursday evening.

Ahead of the front moderate to strong onshore flow will develop
mainly tonight, but with the weakening nature of the front as it
moves over, do not see advisory conditions lasting into Thursday.

Friday on, a surface ridge rebuilds back west over the northern gulf
coast, and will remain in control until a moderate front moves over
the area Sunday night. Moderate to strong west to northwest flow
will follow for the beginning of the week. /16

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Friday morning for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Friday morning for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cdt Thursday for gmz650-655-670-
675.

Small craft advisory until 8 am cdt Thursday for gmz630>632.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 17 mi44 min S 8 G 14 75°F 74°F1007.2 hPa
PPTA1 36 mi44 min S 11 75°F 1006.4 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi44 min 76°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 47 mi84 min SSE 19 G 23 75°F 74°F5 ft1006.1 hPa (-1.4)74°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 48 mi44 min S 16 76°F 1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL7 mi18 minS 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast78°F73°F85%1005.6 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL8 mi18 minS 14 G 2110.00 miLight Rain75°F72°F90%1005.6 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi21 minS 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1007.2 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL22 mi76 minSE 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1007.6 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL23 mi18 minS 12 G 23 miOvercast76°F72°F88%1007 hPa

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SE4S7S13S14
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S15S17SW16SW15SW12SW8SW7SW6SW5SW4SW5S5
2 days agoNW7NW5NW7NW10
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N8NW4NW3N3N4W3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Milton
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:14 PM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:55 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:34 PM CDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.10.30.40.60.70.811.11.31.41.61.71.71.71.61.41.20.90.50.30-0.2-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:10 PM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:50 PM CDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.40.50.70.80.91.11.31.41.61.71.71.71.61.41.20.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.