Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Weir, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:23PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 6:24 PM CST (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:50PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weir, TX
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location: 30.67, -97.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 202328
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
528 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail through the overnight hours into Thursday
morning. Winds at the surface will be light and variable overnight
before becoming more steady out of the east and northeast tomorrow
between 5 and 10 knots. Foreast soundings from the GFS and numerical
guidance suggest that mid level moisture will begin to increase
during the morning tomorrow, but ceilings should remainVFR through
the morning and into the early afternoon. Ceilings will lower through
the afternoon and into the evening hours for aus and Sat to MVFR. A
few showers will be possible Thursday afternoon, but they should be
light and spotty so they have not been included in this TAF package.

Looking ahead, just beyond this TAF period, better chances of light
rain and lower ceilings will be possible Thursday night into Friday
morning.

Prev discussion issued 318 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019
short term (tonight through Thursday night)...

from the 30 kft view there has been a persistent trough over the wrn
us leading to a broad SW flow aloft pattern over tx so far this
february. As this trend is reinforced by an upper low digging south
over the swrn us in the short range, will continue to make
adjustments to blended model guidances to favor the cooler and more
damp NAM model. The SW flow aloft is reinforcing a coastal low which
in turn reinforces NE winds and a shallow cool overrunning pattern
with light isentropic lift. This keeps us on the low side of guidance
temps especially over central tx for the next few periods.

Will show a possibility of light rain as far SW as san antonio for
daytime Thursday, as the NAM forecast soundings indicate a shallow
nose of saturation at about 800 mbs which thickens and descends
toward the surface during the day over and east of the i-35 corridor.

The potential overrunning pattern will likely result in 10 degree or
more differences between west and eastern counties for the high
temps.

The overrunning pattern advects west Thursday night and patchy light
rain showers and maybe some drizzle could expand west to the highway
83 counties. Weak perturbations in an active subtropical jet
overhead could lead to a few storms forming prior to daybreak Friday.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)...

most of the convective action is expected in the period Friday into
Saturday morning as the upper low, after opening into an open wave
Friday, moves east as a high amplitude upper trough and deepens again
as an upper low over the tx ok panhandles. A strong pacific front is
expected to enter western counties just before daybreak Saturday and
sweep quickly east across the area by midday Saturday. There is a
small potential for a few strong storms given the dynamics and lapse
rates aloft, but FROPA timing is not favorable for an active day
here, at least not so much as it would be for east tx. Our main
hazard concern for this forecast package remains the potential for a
red flag event with strong west winds and rapid drying expected
behind the pacific front Saturday afternoon. The model run-to-run
trends continue a strengthening trend with the mid-level low, so this
could translate to further increases in daytime winds, possibly to
the point of warranting a wind advisory. For now, will concern the
hwo for just the critical fire weather pattern. Dewpoints over the
hill country, due the strong mix-down of drier air from the strong
mid level low, are expected to fall into the teens, which is expected
to result into efficient cooling of lows into the mid 30s over parts
of the hill country and edwards plateau.

After mostly dry weather expected over most of the daytime part of
this weekend, broad zonal flow aloft will slowly evolve as a swly
flow aloft pattern Sunday through the middle of next week. Light
overrunning rain chances return for Monday through at least early
Wednesday, with measurable rain chances mainly for central and
eastern counties. The ecm GFS differ on solutions for late Wednesday
morning, as the GFS has a cold front arriving to bring drier air
Wednesday, while the ecm maintains a more flat pattern aloft and no
cold front. In either solution, the extended forecast should
continue the february trend of mostly near or below normal daytime
temperatures.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 42 58 49 63 57 - 20 40 60 50
austin bergstrom intl airport 41 59 48 63 58 10 20 50 60 50
new braunfels muni airport 42 60 51 65 57 - 20 40 50 50
burnet muni airport 40 57 47 61 53 - 20 40 60 60
del rio intl airport 45 67 52 71 51 0 0 30 20 30
georgetown muni airport 40 57 48 61 55 - 20 50 70 60
hondo muni airport 43 64 52 69 56 0 - 30 40 40
san marcos muni airport 41 60 50 64 58 - 20 40 50 50
la grange - fayette regional 42 57 51 69 61 20 30 50 60 50
san antonio intl airport 44 61 52 67 58 0 20 40 40 40
stinson muni airport 44 62 53 67 59 0 20 40 40 40

Ewx watches warnings advisories
None.

Aviation... Treadway
short-term long-term... Huffman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown, Georgetown Municipal Airport, TX5 mi29 minE 510.00 miFair59°F33°F38%1014.4 hPa
Austin Executive Airport, TX19 mi30 minE 710.00 miFair57°F35°F44%1014.2 hPa
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX23 mi50 minE 310.00 miFair60°F28°F30%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from GTU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8N8N6NW8NW10NW7NW7NW6NW7NW6NW10NW7NW6NW4NW5W4N445N6--SE55E3
1 day agoN7
G16
N10
G14
N8N7N8N10N10N8NE9NE10NE6NE9NE8NE7NE8N9N9N7N6N8NE8NE8N9N6
2 days agoN5NE5N7N8N7N11
G15
NE5NE6N6NE5N9N7N10N9NE7NE8NE10NE12
G17
NE10
G16
N10NE11NE10NE11N13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.