Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Roads, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:57PM Monday May 21, 2018 10:05 AM CDT (15:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 12:14AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 930 Am Cdt Mon May 21 2018
Rest of today..East winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth increasing to a light chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Northwest winds up to 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth increasing to a light chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Southeast winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 930 Am Cdt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis.. Weak high pressure will continue to ridge over the coastal waters through mid-week, with a mainly light southeast flow expected. Daily shower and Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week as ridging aloft weakens.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 210816
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
316 am cdt Mon may 21 2018

Discussion
A more active weather pattern is expected this week and into the
weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. An
overall weakening of a ridge aloft and increasing and deepening
moisture across the region will result in more conducive
conditions for convective development... With perhaps the best
chances into mid week across the more eastern areas of the
forecast area closer to a mid upper low near the northeast gulf
coast that will slowly move northward and weaken. Toward the end
of the week and into the weekend there is still a considerable
amount of uncertainty with the eventual evolution of a disturbance
forecast to move into the gulf from the western caribbean and the
tropical moisture that will be associated with it. Forecast model
solutions still disagree on the development and movement of this
feature in the gulf and the development of a surface low. The gfs
solution remains east with a weak low moving toward florida while
the ECMWF is well to the west with a surface low tracking toward
the central gulf coast region... With the latest 00z run now even
farther west toward south central or southwest louisiana. If the
euro is correct, then it's quite possible that the memorial day
weekend period will be quite wet with the threat of heavy
rainfall. At this time, we will maintain high chance pops during
the holiday weekend period, but this may need to raised in later
forecasts. The increased shower and thunderstorm coverage and more
in the way of cloud cover will hold temperatures down a bit from
what have been recently observed. 11

Aviation
CurrentVFR conditions should remain through the rest of the
overnight period. As wave approaches from the east, moisture is
increasing with dew points near 70. This will bring early cumulus
development after sunrise, and could see MVFR ceilings by 14z or so
at most terminals. Convective chances are increased from the past
few days, especially at the eastern terminals such as kgpt, kasd and
the new orleans terminals. Will continue trends of previous package,
but may have to move up the timing an hour or two. Most convection
should die out near or shortly after sunset. Expect the stronger
storms to produce brief ifr conditions with potential gusts to 35-
45 knots. 35

Marine
Most of the workweek should see winds over the coastal waters remain
under 12 knots. This may change around Friday as low pressure tries
to form over or near the north central gulf of mexico. Could see
some exercise caution headlines necessary next weekend, but until
then, the main issue will be occasional convection with the usual
hazards possible. Could see some waterspouts in the morning hours
the next few days with the current weak wind fields. 35

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 89 68 89 69 50 30 50 20
btr 90 70 90 70 40 30 50 20
asd 89 69 89 70 50 30 50 20
msy 89 73 89 74 40 20 50 20
gpt 88 71 89 72 60 30 50 30
pql 88 69 89 69 60 30 50 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 83 mi53 min W 1.9 G 4.1 79°F 85°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA2 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair83°F72°F70%1017.6 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA19 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair80°F71°F74%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE4S5SE5E6SE6SE5S6S6SE6S8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS8S7S4S4S10
G14
S7S8S5SW7S6S4S4S5S4S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5
2 days agoCalmCalmSW6SW8S11W7CalmS6SE6S7S7SE5S6S4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:14 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:52 AM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:27 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:36 PM CDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:14 PM CDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:18 PM CDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:50 PM CDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.90.70.40.20.100.10.30.60.91.21.51.61.61.61.51.41.31.31.21.21.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana
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Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:43 AM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:25 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:40 PM CDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:33 PM CDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:50 PM CDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 11:38 PM CDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.30.20.10-000.10.30.40.60.70.80.90.90.90.80.70.60.60.50.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.