Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:35PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:21 PM EST (19:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:59AMMoonset 6:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- 1014 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Sunday evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of rain after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of rain in the morning.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday night and Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of rain.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of rain
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 1014 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis..Light to moderate southwest winds today will increase to advisory levels late tonight or early Sunday as a strong cold front approaches and moves through the local waters. Winds and seas will remain elevated through Sunday night before dropping below cautionary levels on Monday

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 181727
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1227 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Aviation [through 18z Sunday]
Vfr conditions will prevail across the region through the
afternoon with winds occasionally gusting to 20 knots out of the
south-southwest. A front will cross the area overnight, with a few
showers, brief MVFR CIGS and a wind shift to the northwest. Behind
the front, gusty northwest winds will continue through Sunday
afternoon.

Prev discussion [1113 am est]
Near term [through today]
Areas of morning fog have just about burned off, yielding mostly
sunny skies across the forecast area. Clouds, and possible a few
showers, will move into the western portion of the region during
the afternoon as a cold front rapidly approaches. Otherwise, mild
conditions are expected, with highs in the upper 70s.

Short term [tonight through Monday]
The cold front will sweep through the tri-state region overnight.

The front is expected to be preceded with a broken narrow line of
light rain or showers. Rainfall amounts will generally be under one-
tenth of an inch. A cooler and much drier airmass will filter in on
low level northerly flow Sunday with the surface high centered over
texas. This high will translate east-northeastward covering the se
conus on Monday with local winds shifting to the east by the
afternoon. Highs both days will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s
with a low Sunday night in the mid to upper 30s inland and around
40 along the coast.

Long term [Monday night through Saturday]
While there are still some differences between the euro and gfs,
there is a general agreement that a deep trough and surface low will
develop mid to late week across the gulf of mexico. The GFS solution
is now the more aggressive closing off an upper low Wednesday near
the central gulf coast and sliding it eastward into the florida
panhandle Thursday. A deep surface low develops and does a loop
across our local waters Wednesday night through Thursday night
before moving inland near the suwannee river entrance Friday. The
euro drops a short wave all the way to the bay of campeche
Wednesday before before pivoting an upper trough eastward across
the gulf of mexico Thursday through Friday. This solution shows a
weaker surface low developing in the SE gulf of mexico Thursday
moving inland across south florida on Friday. Would like to see
more run to run consistency but for now will lean toward the
wetter GFS solution. The highest pops (50-60%) will be across the
florida big bend Wednesday night through Thursday night. Low end
rain chances (20-30%) may linger into Friday before drying out on
Saturday. Temps will be near seasonal levels Tuesday and
Wednesday dropping below climo through the remainder of the
period.

Marine
Light to moderate southwest winds today will increase to advisory
levels late tonight or early Sunday as a strong cold front
approaches and moves through the local waters. Winds and seas will
remain elevated through Sunday night before dropping below
cautionary levels on Monday.

Fire weather
A cold front will move through the area late tonight with breezy
conditions and a dry airmass behind it for Sunday. However, rh
values are expected to remain above critical levels and red flag
conditions are not expected for the next several days.

Hydrology
Dry conditions will continue today. Rainfall associated with the
next frontal system late tonight into Sunday morning will be
light with no flooding concerns. A gulf low next week has the
potential to bring heavy rain to our florida counties toward the
end of the week, but recent dry weather should mitigate and
flooding concerns then as well.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 55 66 37 67 48 40 10 0 0 10
panama city 55 65 41 65 51 40 10 0 0 10
dothan 49 63 34 64 44 40 0 0 0 10
albany 51 62 35 64 45 40 0 0 0 10
valdosta 55 65 36 66 48 40 20 0 0 10
cross city 58 71 36 70 51 30 30 0 0 10
apalachicola 57 68 41 65 53 40 10 0 0 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Sunday
for apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to
ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal
waters from suwannee river to keaton beach out 20 nm-
coastal waters from apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-
waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60
nm-waters from apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Camp
short term... Barry
long term... Barry
aviation... Camp
marine... Barry
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Barry


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi81 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 1015.4 hPa (-2.0)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi87 min E 2.9 G 6 65°F 1015.2 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi28 minVar 410.00 miFair75°F53°F46%1014.5 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi25 minS 810.00 miFair76°F52°F44%1013.3 hPa

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S6S95SW54
1 day ago--N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3NE6N4E54
2 days agoN5N5N6N3CalmNE3CalmCalmNE3N3N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE36N7N7N8N7

Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Mandalay
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:34 AM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:53 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:41 PM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:08 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:38 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.42.42.21.81.30.70.2-0.1-0.200.51.21.82.22.32.11.71.30.90.70.70.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:00 AM EST     3.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:59 AM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:08 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:44 PM EST     1.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.13.33.12.61.91.10.4-0.1-0.3-0.10.51.32.22.83.12.92.521.51.21.11.31.82.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.