Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:26PM Sunday May 20, 2018 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 306 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 306 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis.. Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain around 15 knots or less over the next several days, although scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms are expected through the period with locally higher winds and seas possible. There is some potential for an area of low pressure to develop in the gulf by next weekend with higher winds and seas, but that forecast is uncertain at this time.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 201916
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
316 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Near term [through tonight]
At 18z, a shield of light rain was covering the eastern third of
our area and continuing to build northwestward. Across the
western two-thirds of the area, more convectively-driven storms
are popping up with smaller area coverage, but heavier rainfall
rates and some lightning. While a downburst of gusty winds can't
be ruled out this afternoon evening with these storms, the main
impact today and tonight will be moderate to heavy rainfall.

Coverage will continue to fill in across the tri-state area and
most of the area could see rainfall accumulations around 0.5-1"
through tonight. Our local ensemble of hi-res models shows about a
30-40% chance of 3" in the western fl big bend and eastern fl
panhandle. This particular part of our area is still in a deficit,
so this is some much needed rain, but falling over a short time
period, it could cause some minor flooding in areas with poor
drainage.

Short term [Monday through Tuesday night]
Deep tropical moisture will remain in place through the middle of
the week. A persistent upper-level shortwave will also remain over
the eastern gulf. This upper-level forcing in a moisture rich and
unstable environment will combine with the afternoon seabreeze,
nocturnal landbreeze, and various mesoscale boundaries to initiate
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day night.

Localized pockets of heavy rainfall are expected to be the main
threat given the tropical airmass. High temperatures are expected
to be a bit below average given the cloud cover and convection,
and low temperatures are expected to be a bit above average given
the tropical airmass with high dewpoints.

Long term [Wednesday through Sunday]
Deep moisture is expected to remain in place through the week and
into next weekend with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Models forecast a complex sequence of events to take place in the
gulf late in the week into the weekend with potential low pressure
development. The low doesn't appear to be fully tropical in the
guidance with the subtropical jet involved, and with such a complex
evolution, sensitivity is high and expect to see a high variability
of model depictions for the next few days. We'll continue to keep
an eye on it. There is potential for heavy rainfall in the area
should the low eventually move towards the central or eastern gulf
coast next weekend with a long fetch of deep southerly flow on
the eastern side.

Aviation
[through 18z Monday] scattered tsra this afternoon west of a line
from tlh to fzg, with a shield of -ra to the east. CIGS will
deteriorate to MVFR this afternoon with storms, with ifr vsbys
possible during heavier downpours. Overnight, CIGS will
deteriorate further to ifr, not lifting until around 14-15z.

Marine
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain around 15 knots or
less over the next several days, although scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the period with
locally higher winds and seas possible. There is some potential
for an area of low pressure to develop in the gulf by next
weekend with higher winds and seas, but that forecast is uncertain
at this time.

Fire weather
No fire weather concerns are anticipated at least through the next
several days.

Hydrology
Overall, a wet pattern is expected through next week with average 7
day rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches across the area. Localized
higher amounts could occur. Isolated instances of flooding in
urban and poor drainage areas could occur if locally heavier
amounts fall in a flood prone location over a short amount of
time. River levels remain on the low side currently, so river
flooding is not expected for at least the next few days unless
large scale forecast rainfall totals increase or locally heavier
totals fall over one of the smaller basins. By next weekend, river
levels are expected to be rising with the expected rainfall
amounts, but any flooding is highly uncertain.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 69 82 70 83 69 70 60 50 50 30
panama city 71 80 72 81 73 50 70 50 50 30
dothan 68 80 69 81 69 50 70 50 70 40
albany 68 83 69 83 69 50 70 50 70 50
valdosta 67 82 68 83 69 50 70 40 70 40
cross city 68 82 69 83 69 60 70 40 50 30
apalachicola 71 79 73 80 72 60 60 50 40 30

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Nguyen
short term... Dvd
long term... Dvd
aviation... Nguyen
marine... Dvd
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Dvd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi52 min NE 6 G 8 72°F 1018.8 hPa (-1.4)70°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi118 min ESE 15 G 22 76°F 1018 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi52 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 77°F1021 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi59 minSE 310.00 miLight Rain71°F66°F87%1020.6 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi56 minSSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds71°F66°F85%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8SE4SE4SE10S7S4S3S5S4S3S3CalmSE4CalmSE4SE8SE7E6SE6SE7SE6SE6S3SE3
1 day agoS5S6SW3S3S4S3SE4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm54CalmCalmCalmCalm3
2 days agoW16S3S5CalmS3SW3S3CalmS3S6S10S5S4S7S4S8S7S9S6
G14
S10S11S12SW75

Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Mandalay
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.2-0.20.10.61.21.722.11.91.71.31.111.11.41.92.32.52.52.21.91.41

Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:37 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:13 PM EDT     1.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.300.61.322.52.82.72.42.11.81.61.722.533.33.33.12.72.11.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.