Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:01PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 7:19 AM EST (12:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 326 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Today..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts 35 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters rough. Rain showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Friday..North winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday through Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 326 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis.. Strong southeast winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts of 35 to to 40 knots will prevail through Wednesday over our western waters, becoming south Wednesday night. This will build seas to 6 to 9 feet with occasional sets up to 11 feet today and tonight. Winds are expected to fall to 15 to 20 knots tomorrow morning morning, but will remain elevated through tomorrow night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 231124
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
624 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Aviation
[through 12z Thursday]
winds will increase this morning into this afternoon with gusts of
30 knots expected this afternoon into tonight. Cannot rule out a
few obs with gusts to 35kts. In addition a line of showers with
isolated thunderstorms is expected to move through tonight. Tafs
indicated showers, but isolated tsra is possible.VFR conditions
initially but may decrease to MVFR as the showers and rain
increase ahead of the main line.

Prev discussion [349 am est]
Near term [today and tonight]
Upper level trough is digging across the central u.S. This morning
with an area of showers and thunderstorms stretching from eastern tx
northward through the midwest that will slide eastward today. A few
showers are possible this morning into the early afternoon,
particularly across the western portion of the cwa, but the main
focus will be late afternoon and tonight when a line of showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms pushes through the CWA ahead of
the front. All areas of the CWA will see rain from this and have
included 100% pops as the line moves through.

Plenty of shear exists with this system with guidance indicating 35-
40 knots of 0-1km shear and around 50-60 knots of 0-6km shear as the
system moves through. While instability remains on the lower side,
around 500 j kg, it is still sufficient when combined with the
aforementioned shear for a few severe thunderstorms. SPC has
highlighted the florida panhandle and portions of southeast alabama
and the florida big bend in the marginal risk, with a slight risk
just west of the cwa. The main threat for severe storms will be from
late afternoon through early Thursday morning. While damaging wind
is the main threat with this system, with such high low level shear
values, a few tornadoes will also be possible. Given the threat for
severe weather to persist into the overnight hours, please take the
time make sure you have multiple ways to get warnings, even when
asleep.

850mb winds indicate 40-60 knot winds well ahead of the line, so in
addition to the severe threat associated with the line of convection
late this afternoon into tonight, widespread, gusty winds will begin
this morning and increase into the afternoon. While some gusts of 30
to even 35 mph will be possible today, at this point expect
conditions to remain below wind advisory criteria but will monitor
trends through the morning as higher winds are not out of the
question.

Short term [tonight through Friday]
The cold front will exit our area Thursday. In its wake, a much
colder airmass will begin to work its way into the southeast. The
approaching ridge will remain to our northwest through Friday, but
we'll close out the work week with moderate northwest winds, daytime
highs in the 50s Thursday and Friday, and lows in the 30s Friday
morning.

Long term [Friday night through Wednesday]
The ridge will reach the tri-state area Friday night, allowing for
temperatures to drop into the upper 20s in southeast al and
southwest ga, low 30s in north florida. The low level ridge will
weaken as it sits over the area through Monday and morning
temperatures will warm steadily back into the low 40s by Monday
night. Around Monday night Tuesday, the upper level trough will
deepen and a weak frontal system is expected to develop, crossing
the tri-state area Tuesday-Tuesday night. Kept pops maxed at 30-40%
Tuesday, 20% over our eastern zones Tuesday night. With another cold
airmass sweeping in behind it, temps will likely return to the low
30s around the end of the period.

Marine
Strong southeast winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts of 35 to to 40
knots will prevail through Wednesday over our western waters,
becoming south Wednesday night. This will build seas to 6 to 9 feet
with occasional sets up to 11 feet today and tonight. Winds are
expected to fall to 15 to 20 knots tomorrow morning morning, but
will remain elevated through tomorrow night.

Fire weather
A cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a wetting
rain to the whole area. Given this, red flag conditions are not
forecast despite the stronger winds today and tonight.

Hydrology
The next system is expected to bring 1-2 inches of rain across most
of the area, with about 2-3" in southeast al and locally heavier
amounts possible. Significant flooding is not expected with these
rainfall amounts, although some local creeks and streams that get
the heaviest amounts could rise back to near minor flood stage. Some
minor coastal flooding is also possible across the big bend region
with strong onshore flow. The limiting factor here is that the
strongest surge component appears to be overlaid with low tide based
on the latest timing.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 72 50 56 34 56 40 100 10 0 0
panama city 69 46 55 39 56 80 100 0 0 0
dothan 70 41 52 34 52 80 100 0 0 0
albany 73 47 54 34 53 60 100 10 0 0
valdosta 75 53 57 34 55 20 100 10 0 0
cross city 76 57 61 36 58 10 100 20 0 0
apalachicola 68 50 57 38 57 40 100 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood advisory until 7 am est Thursday for coastal dixie-
coastal franklin-coastal jefferson-coastal taylor-coastal
wakulla.

High rip current risk through Thursday morning for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf advisory until 7 am est 6 am cst Thursday for
coastal bay-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Gale warning until 1 pm est Thursday for apalachee bay or
coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl
out to 20 nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river to
apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from suwannee
river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from
mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm-coastal waters
from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20
nm-waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to
60 nm-waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20
to 60 nm-waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county
line fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Fieux
short term... Nguyen
long term... Nguyen
aviation... Fieux
marine... Nguyen
fire weather... Fieux
hydrology... Nguyen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi20 min E 13 G 17 60°F 1023.4 hPa (-1.6)54°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi86 min ESE 8.9 G 19 59°F 55°F1022 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi32 min 63°F 56°F1026.1 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi27 minESE 510.00 miOvercast53°F52°F96%1025 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi24 minE 510.00 miOvercast51°F51°F100%1024.3 hPa

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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SE7E10E7E6E4E7E5E6E5E4E5E4E54E3E5E5
1 day agoCalm4N9N8N6CalmN8NE9
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NE8N10NE5NE4NE4NE4SE4SE3NE3CalmNE4NE4NE64E8E8
2 days agoW8
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--NW4CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:41 AM EST     3.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:31 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:51 AM EST     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:06 PM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:51 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.73.23.332.31.50.5-0.3-0.8-0.9-0.60.111.92.62.82.72.21.610.60.40.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.