Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:41PM Thursday June 22, 2017 2:27 PM EDT (18:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:12AMMoonset 6:10PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1026 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..South winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 knots becoming northwest around 5 knots early in the morning. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming west late in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the late evening. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 1026 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis..Winds and seas will gradually subside from east to west today, as tropical storm cindy moves ashore near the texas- louisiana border and weakens. However, moderate south swells will continue into Friday. A return to low winds and seas is expected by this weekend as a surface ridge develops across the marine area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221731
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
131 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Aviation [through 18z Friday]
Scattered MVFR CIGS in place this afternoon with rain bands from
td cindy are mostly focused over NW fl at the moment. These cigs
should improve toVFR over the next few hours, however, a
reduction to MVFR or ifr CIGS is expected in the early morning
hours on Fri with continued moist low level flow and weak lift.

Gusty winds this afternoon will gradually lower through the
morning hours as the pressure gradient slackens.

Prev discussion [1102 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Surface analysis from this morning shows now tropical depression
cindy moving north near the tx la border, and associated bands of
rain are still coming onshore. Moist air in place over the
southeast us and generally southerly winds have aided convection
on the west side of our forecast area, but guidance still shows
these may dissipate or stay off to the west as we get into the
afternoon hours. Thus have kept pops the same from previous
update. Made slight changes to forecast temperature and humidity
products to better reflect current obs.

Short term [tonight through Saturday]
A deep-layer and drier air aloft will continue across our forecast
area through early Saturday. Pops will be 30% or less, with the
greatest rain chances during the daylight hours. By late Saturday a
deep-layer trough will develop northwest of our forecast area.

Increasing moisture and q-g forcing ahead of this feature will lead
to higher pops around dothan and albany (50%) Saturday afternoon,
with 20-30% pops elsewhere. Temperatures will be near average, with
lows in the 70s and highs in the lower to mid 90s.

Long term [Saturday night through Thursday]
Rain chances will return to near climo levels for most of our region
by Sunday and into early next week with a deep layer trough in the
vicinity. The global are split as to whether or not the accompanying
surface cold front moves far enough south of our forecast area to
bring drier, sinking air (and low pops) to some or all of our
region, so we will blend the different solutions and call for
somewhat below-average pops and temperatures temperatures beyond
Monday, especially from tallahassee north and westward where there
is a greater chance of drying.

Marine
Winds and seas will gradually subside from east to west today, as
tropical storm cindy moves ashore and weakens. However, high surf
and frequent rip currents will continue into Friday. A return to low
winds and seas is expected by this weekend as a surface ridge
develops across the marine area.

Fire weather
No concerns.

Hydrology
Heavy rain remains possible this morning, mainly west of panama city
and dothan. However the threat of flooding is too low for a flood
watch. Fortunately organized heavy rain is unlikely through early
next week, so widespread river flooding flash flooding is not
anticipated.

Despite the recent rains, some of which was locally heavy on Tuesday
and Wednesday, the latest river model guidance does not have any of
our rivers going to flood stage. However, a few sites may get close
along some of the smaller rivers , mainly the shoal river at mossy
head, and bruce creek near red bay.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 75 89 72 90 72 10 30 10 20 10
panama city 77 85 77 85 76 10 20 20 20 10
dothan 74 90 74 89 73 10 20 20 50 40
albany 74 90 74 90 74 10 30 10 40 40
valdosta 75 91 73 91 74 10 20 10 20 20
cross city 74 90 73 90 74 30 20 20 20 10
apalachicola 79 86 77 86 76 10 20 20 10 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Friday evening for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf advisory until 11 am edt 10 am cdt Friday for
coastal bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for apalachee
bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee
river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river
to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
suwannee river to keaton beach out 20 nm-waters from
suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for coastal waters
from apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-waters from
apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Moore patton
short term... Fournier
long term... Fournier
aviation... Moore
marine... Fournier
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Fournier


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi27 min S 13 G 15 83°F 1017.7 hPa (-0.5)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi93 min SSE 13 G 16 83°F 1017.4 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi39 min ESE 6 G 11 88°F 84°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi34 minS 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F73°F59%1018.2 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi29 minS 510.00 miOvercast89°F73°F61%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS43SE3SE3NE3CalmE3CalmSE5E8SE5SE6SE3CalmS3S3SE3S6S5S6S9S6S7S10
1 day agoNE7NE6NE6NE7NE6NE6NE5NE7NE6NE75E434SE4E4E5SE4SE7SE6S9S5SE5S5
2 days agoS6S5S3S6SE11S9SE8S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4E4CalmE4CalmNE5NE6NE8NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Mandalay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:24 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:16 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.52.12.42.32.11.71.30.90.811.41.92.42.82.82.62.11.50.90.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:56 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.533.232.521.51.31.51.92.53.13.63.83.632.21.30.4-0.3-0.6-0.5-00.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.