Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:27PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:34 PM EDT (21:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:21AMMoonset 4:01PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 258 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday..Southwest winds around 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Seas building to 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Seas subsiding to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..West winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Friday night and Saturday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 258 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis..Modest southwest winds will increase quickly on Tuesday to cautionary levels. A period of advisory levels winds and seas is expected late Tuesday through Wednesday night with the approach and passage of a strong cold front. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221857
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
257 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Near term [through tonight]
Scattered, mostly benign convection will continue through the
afternoon. Most storms will be confined south and east of a line
from panama city through tifton. A southern stream shortwave moving
through the lower mississippi valley tonight will enhance ongoing
convection as it moves eastward. Though exact timing is still a bit
uncertain at this point, a band of showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain could reach our alabama and panhandle counties as early
as 4 or 5 am edt. The SPC has areas west of a line from tifton
through panama city under a marginal risk for severe weather
associated with the early morning storms. Deep layer shear will be
increasing to around 50 knots, though instability will be a bit on
the low side in the early morning hours. The main threat would be
the potential for damaging straight line winds.

Short term [Tuesday through Wednesday night]
A closed upper low north of the great lakes will open up as it
lifts off to the northeast. Meanwhile, a shortwave over mn will
drop southward with a low closing off over iowa on Tuesday. This
feature will continue southward into the missouri valley on
Wednesday digging a deep trough along and east of the rockies
before beginning to move toward the east coast Wednesday night. A
few upper level impulse accompanied by deep layer moisture along
with a surface front stalling near the gulf coast will bring a
very wet pattern to our area through Wednesday. The first
shortwave will arrive tonight and linger through Tuesday bringing
with it widespread showers and thunderstorms. Along with the
potential for heavy rainfall, SPC has our entire CWA highlighted
for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Ecam guidance shows
the potential for MLCAPE as high as 1500-1800 j/kg Tuesday and
forecast soundings show bulk shear values and an 85h jet of 30-40
kts. Additionally, pw's will increase to around 2.0". The
greatest severe threat will be damaging straight line winds but a
tornado cannot be ruled out.

There should be a short break in convection late Tuesday/early
Wednesday before the next and more significant shortwave arrives
ahead of the main upper trough. Expect another round of widespread
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday with rain chances tapering off
from west to east Wednesday night as the cold front pushes
through the region. SPC has all but a portion of the SE big bend
highlighted for a marginal risk with the SE big bend in the
slight risk. Bulk shear and the low level jet are forecast to be
in the 40-50 kt range but the limiting factor may be the lack of
instability due to the earlier convective complex.

As for the heavy rain threat, we will hold off on issuing a flash
flood watch as latest QPF amounts have come down just a bit with
the higher amounts (at or just above 3") shifted to our
easternmost zones. These amounts are spread out through Wednesday
night.

Long term [Thursday through Monday]
Much drier air will begin to arrive on Thursday in the wake of the
cold front and remain in place through Saturday. Temperature and
humidity levels will be below normal for late may through Thursday
night with a gradual increase to seasonal levels by the weekend.

Rain chances will return Sunday into the first part of next week
with the approach of the next cold front.

Aviation [through 18z Tuesday]
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be scattered about the
region this afternoon. Tlh and vld have the best chance of being
directly impacted. Late tonight, showers and thunderstorms will
start to spread inland from the gulf as well as move in from the
west, with ecp and dhn likely impacted before 12z with at least
MVFR ceilings and tsra. Through tomorrow, a line of heavy rain
will move slowly through the region resulting in lifr/ifr
restrictions.

Marine
Modest southwest winds will increase quickly on Tuesday to
cautionary levels. A period of advisory levels winds and seas is
expected late Tuesday through Wednesday night with the approach
and passage of a strong cold front. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish through the remainder of the work week as high pressure
builds over the waters.

Fire weather
No concerns.

Hydrology
Recent rains over the last 48 hours have deposited the heaviest
amounts (3-4 inches) in the upper choctawhatchee river basin in
southeast alabama. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts have been lighter
generally 2 inches or less. Most of the guidance suggests that
rainfall over the next 36 to 48 hours should generally be in the
3-4 inch range with isolated heavier totals up to 6 inches. While
this could cause some minor flooding issues, slightly higher
amounts would be needed to cause a greater flood threat. Thus,
will not be issuing a flash flood watch on this cycle, though as
confidence increases in the placement of Tuesday's convection a
watch may be needed.

The threat for river flooding from this system remains quite low,
given that many rivers were at significantly low levels from the
ongoing drought. Only the choctawhatchee river, which has received
modest rains in the upper portion of the basin is vulnerable to
minor flooding should heavier amounts on Tuesday materialize.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 69 81 68 80 60 / 30 70 70 70 20
panama city 74 81 71 80 65 / 50 70 70 70 10
dothan 69 78 67 80 59 / 80 90 70 70 10
albany 71 78 67 79 60 / 60 80 70 70 10
valdosta 70 81 67 79 61 / 20 70 70 80 30
cross city 71 83 71 81 65 / 10 60 70 80 50
apalachicola 74 80 72 82 65 / 50 60 70 70 10

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
coastal bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Harrigan
short term... Barry
long term... Barry
aviation... Harrigan
marine... Barry
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi34 min WSW 11 G 12 79°F 1014.4 hPa (-1.7)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi100 min S 9.9 G 14 80°F 1014.8 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi46 min S 4.1 G 8 80°F 81°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi41 minVar 410.00 miFair84°F71°F65%1014.7 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi36 minWSW 10 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds87°F68°F54%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW55S8W764
1 day agoS5W45W4E5E4CalmSE4S4SW3S5S3S3W5S4S5S9E3SE333544
2 days agoNE3E3SE14
G20
SE9SE8SE10E5SE3SE3CalmSE5SE5SE5E4SE5SE6S7S6SE6S75S6S8S8

Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Mandalay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:36 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:44 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.121.61.20.80.50.40.611.522.42.52.321.510.50.20.20.40.81.4

Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:02 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:10 PM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.72.41.81.30.90.70.91.31.92.63.13.33.22.82.21.50.80.40.30.511.62.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.