Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Park, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 6:56PM Friday October 20, 2017 2:02 PM EDT (18:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:17AMMoonset 6:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- 940 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..East winds 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..East winds 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of rain in the evening, then showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters choppy. Rain likely in the morning, then showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers likely through the night. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 940 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis..A relatively strong high pressure system will remain centered northeast of the marine area through Saturday night, maintaining generally east winds in the 15 to 20 knot range and seas of 3 to 6 feet. Winds will become southerly and remain elevated on Monday ahead of a low pressure system.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Park, GA
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location: 30.72, -83.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 201714
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
114 pm edt Fri oct 20 2017

Aviation [through 18z Saturday]
Vfr conditions will prevail through the evening. Some MVFR cigs
and vsby will develop in the predawn hours across our georgia
terminals. MVFR vsby could extend into al as well.

There is a vigorous smoke plume evident on satellite (and out our
window) just south of tlh. The plume extends to about 2500 feet.

Prevailing ene surface and transport winds should keep any vsby
restrictions away from the airport proper.

Prev discussion [943 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Deep layer ridging over the area will deliver another rain-free
day to the forecast area. Some clouds over the apalachee bay will
impact the coastal big bend. Otherwise, skies will be mostly
sunny. Look for afternoon highs in the lower 80s, expect for
portions of the big bend where mid 80s are expected.

Short term [tonight through Sunday]
A deep-layer ridge will be the dominant weather feature over much of
the eastern CONUS through Saturday. On Sunday this ridge will begin
to break down with the approach of an upper trough surface cold
front over the mississippi valley. Weak q-g ascent will begin across
northwest portions of our forecast area late Saturday, but very dry
air aloft and poor buoyancy will prevent significant cloud
development. This will begin to change by Sunday afternoon,
however, as deep southeast to south flow increases moisture
across our region, and q-g forcing continues to increase. Pops
will increase into the 20 to 30% range Sunday afternoon. Our
recent warming trend will continue through the weekend as
temperatures climb above average. Lows will be in the upper 50s
(north) to lower 60s (south) tonight, then in the mid to upper 60s
Saturday night. Highs will be in the mid 80s.

Long term [Sunday night through Friday]
There is good agreement among the latest global nwp models in
bringing a potent upper-level short wave trough through our
forecast area Monday and Monday night, followed by gradually
clearing skies and cooler temperatures on Tuesday. As if often the
case with these types of systems passing through our region in the
cool season, there are competing signals as to the potential for
severe thunderstorms. Relatively strong ascent and vertical wind
shear, as well as ample low-level moisture, would indicate at
least some threat of organized severe storms. On the other hand,
poor low-layer and mid-layer lapse rates suggest weaker updrafts
(less intense storms). Perhaps the threat will become more clear
in a few days when we begin to see some of the cam runs for that
period.

After the initial short wave trough passes, the eastern half of
the CONUS will be dominated by a mean, broad, upper trough for
the remainder of the work week. At the surface, a cool, dry
airmass will be in place across the southeast, and it will
actually begin to feel like fall by mid week as temperatures
gradually cool to below average levels.

Marine
A relatively strong high pressure system will remain centered
northeast of the marine area through Saturday night, maintaining
generally east winds in the 15 to 20 knot range and seas of 4 to
6 feet offshore. Winds will become southerly on Monday ahead of a
low pressure system, but winds and seas will remain elevated.

Fire weather
High dispersion values over 75 are possible today in big bend
florida. Otherwise no fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Dry conditions will continue into the weekend. Widespread rain will
occur late Sunday through Monday night as a cold front move through
the area. Storm total QPF is generally 1 to 2 inches, but locally
higher amounts are possible. This is unlikely to cause widespread
flooding or have a major impact on river stages.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 63 86 67 86 73 0 0 0 30 50
panama city 66 84 69 84 73 0 0 0 40 80
dothan 59 84 64 85 70 0 0 0 30 60
albany 58 85 64 85 70 0 0 0 20 50
valdosta 61 84 65 85 70 0 0 10 30 40
cross city 64 86 67 87 71 0 0 0 40 30
apalachicola 67 83 71 83 74 0 0 0 30 60

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Wool
short term... Fournier
long term... Fournier
aviation... Wool
marine... Fournier
fire weather... Mcd
hydrology... Fournier


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 67 mi63 min NE 8 G 9.9 80°F 1021 hPa (-1.3)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 77 mi129 min NE 5.1 G 12 76°F 1022 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 88 mi45 min N 8 G 15 77°F 76°F1023.2 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdosta Regional Airport, GA9 mi70 minNE 710.00 miFair79°F64°F60%1023.5 hPa
Moody Air Force Base, GA18 mi67 minENE 610.00 miFair78°F62°F59%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from VLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8NE11NE7NE6NE5NE3NE3NE3NE3NE3NE3NE3CalmNE3NE4NE3CalmN4NE6E6NE96NE7E6
1 day agoNE9E4NE7E6NE5NE3NE5NE3E4CalmNE3N4NE5NE6NE7NE5NE5N6E6NE7NE8NE11
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2 days agoNE9
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NE8NE8NE5NE4NE6NE3NE4NE5NE7NE5NE6NE6NE6NE9NE7NE7NE8NE10NE9NE6NE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
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Mandalay
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:09 AM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:09 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:10 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.92.42.62.52.21.71.10.60.200.10.61.31.92.42.62.421.61.10.80.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:35 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:15 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:20 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:16 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.433.43.43.12.51.70.90.300.10.61.42.333.43.32.92.31.71.211.11.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.