Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:05PM Thursday March 30, 2017 7:33 PM CDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 10:03PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 351 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 30 2017
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then Thunderstorms likely and chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming north. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth.
Saturday..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Smooth.
Saturday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop.
Tuesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 351 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis..A light to moderate southerly wind flow will shift west to northwest overnight as a line of strong Thunderstorms moves east and a weak cold front advances through the marine area. Light westerly winds will follow Friday and Friday evening...then shift to the north after midnight as another weak cold front approaching from the north moves offshore. Southerly winds redevelop over the weekend and increase Sunday night into Monday as another upper system approaches from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 302321
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
721 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Aviation [through 00z Saturday]
A solid line of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms
is expected to continue across the tri-state region through the
night. Expect the strongest convective gusts at ecp, up to around
30 knots. Except some ifr restrictions at ecp & dhn, expect MVFR
to prevail in the vicinity of the line of rain. In the wake of the
line, up-and-downVFR/MVFR will be possible until skies
completely clear beginning around 15z at dhn/ecp, clearing vld
after 18z.

Prev discussion [348 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
Complex severe weather threat unfolding currently with low pressure
across western missouri and a cold front located across eastern
louisiana/arkansas/missouri. Upstairs, a deep trough was located
across the southern plains with a closed low across western
missouri. The entire system is heading eastward/northeastward.

This mornings hi-res model solutions were struggling as compared to
the real world mesoscale situation. However, it now appears that the
local cams and hrrr were coming into better agreement on the details
of the next 12-18 hours which lends a little better confidence to
the forecast.

Line of showers and storms across southern mississippi and southeast
louisiana will trek eastward through the day. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible to develop ahead of the line and affect areas west of
the choctawhatchee river later this afternoon. Raised pops to chance
across this area.

The main event will be this evening and overnight. Main squall line
will affect SE al and western fl panhandle this evening then move
eastward with time. Instability is marginal with the highest of the
values favoring the florida panhandle counties but shear is more
than sufficient for organized storms. In addition, there will be a
mid level speed MAX to invigorate the line as it moves across the
area.

Speaking of threats, damaging winds will be the main threat. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Short term [Friday through Saturday night]
In the upper levels by Friday morning the 500mb low will be over
indiana with a trough extending through georgia and north
florida. A ridge will build in Friday night and remain in place
through Sunday. At the surface a low will be near the
indiana/michigan border by Friday morning. The cold front will
extend southward through georgia and north florida. The threat for
severe weather will be diminished by Friday morning but showers
and thunderstorms will be present east of the chattahoochee and
apalachicola rivers where pops will be 30 to 50 percent. By noon
Friday rain will move out of the region and skies will be
clearing. Highs Friday will be in the lower 80s.

Friday night through Saturday night will be uneventful with high
pressure over the southeast. Expect clear/sunny skies. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 50s.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]
In the upper levels another trough will move through Monday
evening. At the surface a cold front will move through Monday
afternoon and evening with thunderstorms likely. QPF estimates
suggest 2 inches of rain is possible on Monday. A weak front may
move through Wednesday night into Thursday. A chance of rain is
forecast with that system. Highs will be in the 80s and lows will
be in the 50s and 60s.

Marine
South winds will be 15 to 20 knots tonight ahead of a cold front.

Seas will be 3 to 5 feet and occasionally higher offshore. A line
of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move through
overnight. Strong to severe winds and isolated waterspouts will be
possible. Winds will become light and westerly once the front
passes in the morning.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
though dispersion indices may be marginally high on Friday.

Hydrology
River levels are currently well below action stage. One to four
inches of rain are forecast over the next seven days. The best
chance for higher rain totals will be over southeast alabama and
panhandle florida. River flooding is not expected. Flash flooding
is not expected but cannot be ruled out.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 64 82 55 87 57 / 70 40 0 0 0
panama city 66 77 60 79 62 / 80 20 0 0 0
dothan 61 80 55 85 58 / 80 10 0 0 0
albany 64 81 55 84 57 / 80 50 0 0 0
valdosta 62 84 55 85 56 / 60 50 0 0 0
cross city 63 81 55 85 54 / 30 50 0 0 0
apalachicola 66 77 59 78 61 / 70 30 0 0 0

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
coastal bay-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Scholl
short term... Mcdermott
long term... Mcdermott
aviation... Harrigan
marine... Mcdermott
fire weather... Harrigan
hydrology... Mcdermott


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi45 min SE 15 G 16 71°F 74°F1010.9 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi45 min SSE 9.9 G 18 72°F 74°F1010.9 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi45 min NE 9.9 G 15 1008.7 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 85 mi108 min SE 9.9 74°F 70°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-County Airport, FL19 mi95 minS 710.00 miFair75°F63°F66%1006.7 hPa

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--CalmCalm--Calm--Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------S12
G16
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1 day agoSW5--S3----SW3Calm------Calm--Calm--NE43S63--Calm6W7----
2 days ago----S5--S3SW3SW4------3SW3------SW5--------S5--SW3--

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:40 PM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:49 PM CDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:01 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.50.60.60.70.70.80.911.11.21.21.21.210.90.60.40.20-0.1-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:33 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:19 PM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:35 PM CDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.50.60.60.70.70.80.911.11.21.21.21.110.80.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.