Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 4:47PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 4:57 AM CST (10:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:34AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 325 Am Cst Wed Nov 22 2017
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop.
Tonight..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. A moderate chop becoming a light chop.
Thursday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. A light chop.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth.
Saturday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 325 Am Cst Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis..Moderate to strong northerly flow will prevail over the marine area today and tonight in the wake of a passing cold front. A moderate northerly flow will then continue through the end of the week as high pressure gradually builds south across the northern gulf.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 220816
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
316 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Near term [through today]
Given wet soil from rain yesterday afternoon, patchy fog is
currently affecting portions of the tri-state region this morning.

Conditions will be slow to improve after sunrise, therefore anyone
who is planning to travel this morning should plan more time to
get to their destination and use low beam headlights.

Mostly cloudy conditions will linger through the day, as the
second in a series of shortwave troughs and associated gulf lows
approaches the region today. Given the current trajectory and
speed of the aforementioned low, shower activity will likely
remain offshore through much of the period, with the likely onset
of activity over land occuring this evening. Modest pwat values
will keep precipitation efficacy limited, thus keeping the threat
for any heavy rainfall and flooding with this activity low.

Widespread cloud cover will keep daytime heating limited, as highs
will remain limited to the upper 60s to low 70s region wide.

Short term [tonight through Friday]
The shortwave dropping into the western gulf this morning will
spread eastward across the entire gomex before lifting northeast
into the western atlantic on Friday evening. Convection ongoing
in the western gulf initiated as the shortwave moved across a
surface temperature gradient where anomalously high sst's exist.

Models agree that further deepening of a surface low should be
expected through Thursday as the shortwave passes over the even
warmer loop current. As the surface low deepens, low-level winds
will strengthen, resulting in a large area of strong isentropic
ascent across the northeast gulf tonight, spreading into the big
bend, north-central florida, and southeast georgia early Thursday
morning. In the presence of a pre-existing coastal front and a
southward advancing wedge front, surface frontogenesis will be
maximized as the southerly winds ramp up tonight through Thursday
morning. Additionally, a plume of anomalously high pwats will
spread into the aforementioned areas. Considering the ingredients,
there exists the potential for heavy rainfall primarily late
tonight through early Thursday afternoon and wpc has placed the
above mentioned region under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. See the hydrology discussion below for more detailed
rainfall forecasts and expected impacts.

While the surface low and shortwave wont be completely out of the
gulf until Friday evening, as the surface low moves east and the
wedge moves through the region, isentropic ascent will be cut off
with deep layer subsidence increasing through Friday. Thus,
expect a drying trend starting late Thursday afternoon and a
mostly dry day on Friday with only scattered light to moderate
rain expected in the southeast big bend of florida. While much
less rain is expected on Friday, expect cloud cover to remain
until the frontal system departs Friday night. Highs will
generally be in the middle 60s, with overnight lows in the 40s and
50s through the period.

Long term [Friday night through Wednesday]
No rain is expected through the extended range as the eastern
conus trough will progress eastward and eventually deep layer
ridging will take over. Expect seasonable highs and lows through
the period.

Aviation [through 06z Thursday]
Low CIGS and fog will be common at nearly all TAF sites overnight,
with tlh, vld, and aby seeing ifr to lifr conditions. MVFR
conditions are expected elsewhere. Conditions will be slow to
improve Wednesday, with MVFR CIGS lingering at nearly all sites
through the period. Ra will spread across the region Wednesday
evening, affecting most terminals Wednesday night into Thursday.

Marine
Winds will start ramping up to just below advisory levels across
the northeast gulf today. Expect cautionary conditions to prevail
through Friday, falling below headline levels by Friday evening
through the remainder of the weekend. Rain should be expected
through Friday evening, with the heaviest rain expected tonight
through Thursday afternoon.

Fire weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the
next several days, as rh's will remain well above critical levels
with high chances for wetting rains. Drier conditions are expected
for the weekend.

Hydrology
There'll likely be a sharp QPF gradient over the next day or so
that will depend upon where exactly the strongest winds and
surface convergence align. In general, the heaviest rain should be
expected in the eastern big bend and south-central southeast
georgia tonight through Thursday morning. In these areas expect
average rainfall totals on the order of 1-2", however, isolated
higher amounts could range from 3-6" (especially closer to the big
bend coast). Luckily we're in need of rain and flash flood
guidance suggest these amounts won't be too concerning. As far as
the river systems are concerned, many rivers in the aforementioned
region are in low stage, or at least near it. Ensemble guidance
suggests that even reasonable worst case scenario rainfall amounts
will be unable to force the suwannee into even action stage. Thus,
the potential for flash or river flooding appears low with
Thursday and Friday's frontal system.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 72 57 65 51 66 10 50 50 20 20
panama city 71 55 67 53 66 20 20 20 10 10
dothan 70 49 65 46 65 0 10 10 10 10
albany 71 53 62 47 64 0 20 20 10 20
valdosta 72 56 63 51 62 10 40 50 30 30
cross city 74 59 67 54 66 20 60 90 60 60
apalachicola 72 58 67 55 66 30 60 40 30 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Pullin
short term... Harrigan
long term... Harrigan
aviation... Pullin
marine... Harrigan
fire weather... Pullin
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi39 min NNE 8.9 G 12 60°F 69°F1014.9 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi39 min NNE 8 G 11 62°F 69°F1014.6 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi45 min 56°F 64°F1016 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 85 mi72 min N 4.1 58°F 58°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm------------------------------------------4
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:15 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:32 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:05 AM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:58 PM CST     1.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.61.41.20.90.60.40.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.100.10.30.50.70.811.21.41.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:14 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:31 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:51 AM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:15 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:37 PM CST     1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.51.31.10.80.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.100.20.30.50.70.91.11.21.41.51.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.