Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:39PM Monday September 25, 2017 1:55 PM CDT (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:27AMMoonset 10:23PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 1004 Am Cdt Mon Sep 25 2017
Rest of today..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. A light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming light. A light chop becoming smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Winds light becoming southwest 3 to 8 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth.
Wednesday..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Thursday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Friday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1004 Am Cdt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis..High pressure ridging into the marine area from the northeast will continue through early Wednesday, but begin to break down during the middle part of the week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will likely drift south over the coastal waters late in the week. Scattered to numerous showers and a few Thunderstorms over the marine area today and tonight, decreasing in coverage mid week, before increasing once again late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 251745
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
145 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Aviation [through 18z Tuesday]
Vfr conditions are expected through the period, though patchy
MVFR vsby restrictions will be possible in the early morning
hours. Conditions would be brief if they do occur. Winds will be
light and from the northeast.

Prev discussion [1209 pm edt]
Near term [through today]
In the upper levels a trough is over the lower mississippi river
valley and a ridge is over the northeast and mid-atlantic. At the
surface weak high pressure is over the eastern u.S. Hurricane maria
is well offshore east of south carolina. Continued northeasterly
flow is bringing slightly drier air in the lower levels. Showers and
thunderstorms will be fairly isolated today with the best chance in
the florida panhandle and southeast alabama counties (up to 35
percent pop). Elsewhere pops are in the 10 to 20 percent range this
afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s.

Short term [tonight through Wednesday]
The strong deep-layer ridge, currently over much of the eastern
conus, will be replaced by a trough by Wednesday, as some of the
upper vorticity from the trough currently over the rockies gets
absorbed into the main westerlies over southern canada. Our forecast
area will remain far to the south of any meaningful pressure height
gradients, and generally beneath a very broad area of slightly lower
heights aloft.

In the absence of large scale forcing, deep moist convection will
depend on mesoscale forcing and favorable thermodynamics. To that
end the environment does not appear favorable, as the mid
troposphere becomes progressively drier and warmer, greatly limiting
the buoyancy needed for convective updrafts. Daytime mixing will
lower dewpoints to at least the mid 60s, further retarding potential
updrafts. If convection does form, it will be limited to the
northwest fl coast, where the sea breeze front will get pinned by
the orthogonal 1000-700 mb mean wind, or perhaps across our eastern
zones as the east coast sea breeze front approaches. The model
consensus pops for these areas are only about 20%, which seems
reasonable. Calms winds and a slightly drier airmass will allow
temperatures to cool to the mid 60s tonight, which is still a few
degrees above average for this time of year. Otherwise temperatures
will be above average with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows
in the lower 70s.

Long term [Wednesday night through Monday]
An amplified (but fast-moving) upper trough over the eastern conus
late this week will eventually help drive a surface baroclinic
trough into our forecast area this weekend. However, with the jet
stream still far to the north and the upper trough lifting out so
quickly, the baroclinic trough will likely just stall across our
region. Weak q-g forcing and modest deep-layer moisture with this
system support 20 to 30% pops Friday through Sunday, with the
highest values across our fl zones where moisture and CAPE will
be a little more plentiful. Temperatures will be above average
Thursday and Friday, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the
lower 70s. Highs will be near average this weekend and Monday (mid
80s), while lows a little above climo (65 to 70).

Marine
After a moderate surge in east winds early this morning, winds and
seas will quickly diminish this afternoon as the pressure pattern
across the region becomes extremely weak. Low winds and seas will
continue through the week.

Fire weather
Afternoon dispersion indices may be below 20 today and Tuesday.

Otherwise no fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Organized heavy rain is not expected across our forecast area this
week, and our local rivers were below flood stage.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 69 91 70 93 70 0 0 0 0 0
panama city 73 86 72 88 73 10 10 0 0 0
dothan 67 90 68 92 69 0 0 0 0 0
albany 67 90 69 92 70 0 0 0 0 0
valdosta 67 89 68 91 69 0 0 0 10 0
cross city 69 90 69 92 70 0 10 0 0 0
apalachicola 72 87 72 89 73 0 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Moore
short term... Mcd
long term... Fournier
aviation... Moore
marine... Mcd
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Mcd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi38 min W 2.9 G 2.9 80°F 1013.2 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi38 min S 7 G 8 83°F 82°F1013 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi38 min 84°F 82°F1013 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 85 mi71 min E 5.1 84°F 75°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------------Calm
1 day ago------Calm--------------------------Calm----------Calm
2 days ago--SW5----SW86
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:41 AM CDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 AM CDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.71.71.71.61.41.210.80.70.60.50.50.50.60.60.70.80.911.11.31.41.6

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:20 AM CDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:37 AM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.71.71.61.51.31.110.80.60.60.50.50.50.60.60.70.80.911.21.31.41.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.