Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:48PM Friday July 21, 2017 5:51 PM CDT (22:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:01AMMoonset 6:11PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 340 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 340 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 21 2017
Synopsis..Weak high pressure will continue over the northern gulf through tonight then gradually build over the weekend. A light onshore flow will continue through Saturday before increasing and becoming more southwest to west Sunday into early next week. Winds and seas will be higher near isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms through the forecast period with the best coverage occurring during the morning hours. Stay tuned to noaa weather radio if threatening weather is approaching your area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 211929
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
329 pm edt Fri jul 21 2017

Near term [through tonight]
Vapor imagery reveals a weak upper low moving across the marine
area this morning and this will provide at least some assistance
to developing thunderstorms this afternoon. The ktae sounding is
much more unstable than 24 hours ago. Lapse rates above 850 mb are
a little steeper with the 850-500 mb layer at 6.6c km. A modified
surface parcel of 95 73 yields around 2800 j kg of sbcape.

Additionally the airmass has moistened a little from yesterday
morning with the pwat up to 1.82 in. While the 1000-700 mb flow is
still fairly light, the easterly flow will provide for increased
convergence along the florida panhandle sea breeze.

Given that a little more convection is expected today, especially
across the western half of the region, will show temperatures in
the low to mid 90s in the western portion of the region, but in
the mid 90s in the eastern half of the region. Heat indicies will
peak near 105 degrees or so.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish right around sunset, and
are expected to redevelop over the northern gulf after midnight.

Overnight lows will dip in the lower to middle 70s.

Short term [Saturday through Sunday night]
As a shortwave moves through the great lakes region, the eastern
conus trough will gradually amplify into the tennessee valley and
the mid-atlantic. At the surface, westerly flow over the
appalachians will result in lee troughing into the southeast.

Locally, however, it appears as though these features won't have
much of an effect. Instead afternoon convection will continue to
be driven by the seabreeze fronts. Pops will be near normal (in
the 40-60% range) for the southwesterly steering flow regime.

Highs are forecast to be in the lower 90s with heat indices in the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

Long term [Monday through Friday]
The aforementioned upper-level and surface troughs will be at
their closest point to the region on Monday and will mix with the
gulf seabreeze fronts to result in slightly above average pops.

Thereafter, the trough will lift northeast with ridging taking
over once again. Pops should be near normal during the week,
forced by the gulf and atlantic seabreeze fronts. High will
continue to remain in the lower to middle 90s each day.

Aviation [through 18z Saturday]
Sct tsra will continue to develop across the region this afternoon
mainly affecting the ecp tlh terminals, though by 20z, all sites
potentially could see a tsra. Storms should dissipate after 00z
sat. A brief period of MVFR vsbys are possible at vld around 10z
ending after sunrise. Thereafter, next batch of storms should be
after 18z sat.

Marine
Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail over the next
several days. Minor wind and chop enhancements near the coast in
the afternoon seabreeze will be possible each day. Showers and
thunderstorms will be most likely between midnight and noon.

Fire weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

Hydrology
A typical summertime scattering of storms is not expected to
produce any river flooding. Isolated minor flooding could be
possible in urban locations under slow moving storms.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 74 91 74 91 75 10 60 10 60 20
panama city 78 87 78 87 79 20 30 30 40 30
dothan 74 91 74 90 74 20 40 20 40 20
albany 74 93 74 91 74 20 30 20 30 20
valdosta 74 93 74 92 75 20 40 10 40 20
cross city 73 90 74 89 74 30 50 40 60 20
apalachicola 77 87 78 87 78 20 40 30 50 40

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Godsey harrigan
short term... Harrigan
long term... Harrigan
aviation... Godsey
marine... Harrigan
fire weather... Pullin
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi51 min SSE 7 G 8.9 82°F 1016.5 hPa (-0.6)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi51 min SSE 11 G 13 79°F 88°F1016.2 hPa (-0.5)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi51 min 87°F 89°F1015.7 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------------Calm----CalmCalm
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:23 AM CDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:49 PM CDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.50.711.21.41.61.82221.91.71.410.60.3-0-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:01 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:02 AM CDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:09 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:35 PM CDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.60.811.21.51.71.81.921.91.81.51.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.