Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:21 PM Moonrise 8:15 PM   Moonset 6:17 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 336 Am Cdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Today - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.

GMZ600 336 Am Cdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis - A light and somewhat variable flow pattern will prevail through Thursday morning, especially near the coast. An onshore flow pattern will otherwise continue through the remainder of the week. The onshore flow will strengthen with a build in seas this weekend.

FXUS62 KTAE 240710 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 310 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Surface high pressure dominates the forecast this period leading to another quiet and dry day. High temperatures were adjusted a few degrees lower than the NBM, which has the majority of region topping out in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Tonight, low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s for the SW GA and the FL Big Bend, and in the upper 50s to near 60 for SE AL and the W FL Panhandle.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Northwest upper level flow and a weak building ridge moving in from the west will be the predominant upper level pattern to end the work week. At the surface, a mostly dry backdoor cold front will move through the region from the north/northeast as surface high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard Thursday into Friday. Cool air is not likely behind this front, but it will at least help delay the warm up back into the upper 80s until later part of the upcoming weekend and we'll likely just see a switch to light northeasterly winds Thursday becoming stronger out of the east on Friday as high pressure continues to nose down the Atlantic coast.

Mostly dry conditions expected but with the enhanced easterly flow, slight uptick in low level moisture, and a weak upper level trough passing through in advance of the ridge, we could squeeze out a brief shower during the afternoon so have left low POPs around 10 to 15 generally along the I-75 corridor for Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A mostly dry and warm pattern is expected through the weekend and into early next week as upper level ridging develops over the eastern third of the country. At the surface, strong high pressure will develop over the eastern third of the country with persistent east and southeasterly flow forecast into early next week. No significant systems of note are expected and this isn't uncommon as late April/May is typically one of two dry seasons we have and systems typically begin to struggle to get this far south this time of year. Looking ahead into the middle and later part of next week, increasing moisture could bring an early preview of our typical summertime weather/storms.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period. KABY started reporting some MVFR cigs, so opted to add a tempo group in for that. Guidance, satellite, and webcams aren't really picking up on it so it's tough to say how long this might last. Outside of that, KVLD could potentially drop to MVFR vis for a few hours based off persistence forecasting.

MARINE
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Light and variable winds are expected into Wednesday and early Thursday before an east and southeasterly flow regime begins to take over for the end of the week and upcoming weekend. With a strong pressure gradient developing, and the combination of the Atlantic Seabreeze, expect cautionary/advisory level conditions to develop for the weekend. The strongest winds are likely to be in the overnight and early morning hours as the easterly surges from the Atlantic seabreeze pass through.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Not much change to the forecast as lighter transport winds will lead to fair dispersions today and tomorrow. Come Friday, transport winds and surface winds increase due to a tightening pressure gradient over the region. This will likely lead to area wide high dispersions. Dry weather is forecast to prevail through the period, though moisture will gradually increase this Friday and into this weekend as winds become onshore and pull moisture in from the Gulf.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Minor flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee, the lower Withlacoochee, the Aucilla, and the St. Marks Rivers. The Aucilla and St. Marks continue to fall and should exit flood stage during the next 2 to 3 days. On the Suwannee, the flood wave is now near Branford and will continue to move downstream over the next 5 to 7 days. Little to no rainfall is expected during the next week, and there are no flood concerns as a result.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 79 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 76 63 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 79 59 84 61 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 80 57 83 62 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 79 57 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 79 55 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 73 62 77 64 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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West Bay Creek
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Wed -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:18 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:39 AM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:13 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:18 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Lynn Haven
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Wed -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:17 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:15 AM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:15 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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