Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Creola, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 6:50PM Friday September 21, 2018 10:46 AM CDT (15:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:10PMMoonset 3:24AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 1015 Am Cdt Fri Sep 21 2018
Rest of today..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1015 Am Cdt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis..Surface high pressure holds over the southeast into the weekend and builds into the early half of next week. This pattern supports a prevailing east to southeast wind flow through much of period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms this weekend become potentially numerous by early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Creola, AL
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location: 30.82, -87.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 211532 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1032 am cdt Fri sep 21 2018

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Latest 21.12z upper air analysis shows center of deep
layer ridge of high pressure now off the mid-atlantic coast. To
the south of this ridge a well defined h30 upper low has crossed
the florida peninsula and continues a steady westward movement
over the eastern gulf. Water vapor satellite imagery details these
pressure systems very nicely with driest mid level air rotating
anti-cyclonically over the eastern us. Northwest of gulf upper
low, a narrow north to south spoke of higher moisture was observed
(where pwat's 1.8-to 2.00" exist) tracking westward over the
forecast area. Scattered showers and storms are expected to form
within this moisture axis in the presence of an environment that
destabilizes due to day-time heating. This is covered in latest
forecast and will not change.

Drier air aloft punching westward out of the southeast, could aid
in better potential for strong convective downburst winds in any
stronger storm cores. Frequent lightning and brief locally heavy
downpours will also be likely with the passage of stronger storms.

10

Prev discussion issued 634 am cdt Fri sep 21 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... GeneralVFR CIGS visbys expected through most of
the day, with isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected later this morning through the afternoon. With MVFR level
cigs and visbys likely in the precip, impact to operations are
possible at times.

16
prev discussion... Issued 440 am cdt Fri sep 21 2018
near term now through Friday night ... An upper low on the east
coast of florida moves over the eastern gulf of mexico through
tonight, weakening an upper ridge stretching west over the
southeast, even with the weakening of the upper ridge, feel the
ridge will remain strong enough to warrant the continuation of the
trend of leaning on the warm side of guidance for today's highs
(gfs ecmwf). Another day of well above seasonal temperatures
(general around 90 to low 90s) is the result. Deep layer easterly
flow on the south side of the upper ridge pushes a band of deep
layer moisture (precip h20 levels in the 1.75-2.0" range) west
over the area before subsidence from the ridge moves drier air in
the mid upper levels(precip h20 values dropping below 1.5" in the
process) over the area tonight. With the axis of higher moisture
levels mainly over or west of the alabama river, have placed
higher chances of rain over western parts of the area. Have
continued the above reasoning this evening and placed highest
residual evening precip coverage over western portions of the
area. 16
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... The weak upper low
pressure area over the eastern gulf of mexico will move westward
over the central gulf by late Saturday night. This low will then
evolve into an open wave on Sunday as it drifts very slowly
westward through Sunday night. The upper high pressure system
centered over the western atlantic will move very slowly eastward,
but an upper ridge will remain over the extreme southeast conus
region through the weekend. The surface ridge across the southeast
states and northeast gulf will persist through the weekend.

Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will manage to
move onshore across the southern half of the forecast area
Saturday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
north of us highway 84 Saturday afternoon, but increasing to
scattered to the south. Isolated evening showers and thunderstorms
south of us highway 84 will dissipate by midnight, with a few
lingering showers possible along the coast through the overnight
hours. Convective activity will pick up again on Sunday due to
decreasing stability, with mainly scattered showers and
thunderstorms except for isolated across our far northeast zones.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
persist through Sunday night.

The heat and humidity will continue to be of concern on Saturday
as highs extend about 5 degrees above normal, with heat indices
ranging from 97 to 102 degrees. Highs on Sunday will be about 2 to
3 degrees lower due to increasing cloud cover and rain chances,
with heat indices in the low to mid 90s. 22
long term Monday through Thursday ... The upper level wave will
continue to move westward, followed by an east-west upper level
ridge setting up over the northern gulf of mexico and deep south.

This upper level ridge will persist through the remainder of the
long term, keeping a series of broad upper troughs well north of
the region. The surface ridge across the southeast states and
northeast gulf will remain largely intact, keeping the region in
a warm, moist environment with mainly a southwest surface wind
flow.

Deeper moisture within increasing southerly to southwesterly flow
aloft will spread across much of the forecast area next week, and
a more unsettled weather pattern with increased (50-70%) chances
of showers and thunderstorms expected each day Monday through
Thursday. Slightly above normal temperatures will persist through
the long term despite the increased cloud cover and precipitation
chances, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 22
marine... An upper system passing south of the area through the
weekend will bring general light to at times moderate east to
southeast flow. A surface ridge will rebuild southwest along the
east coast early in the coming week, shifting winds to a general
southeast for the coming week, but still bring a general light to
at times moderate flow. 16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 10 mi34 min 85°F 87°F1018.9 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 11 mi46 min E 1.9 85°F 1020 hPa (+1.7)
PTOA1 12 mi28 min 86°F 76°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 14 mi34 min 83°F 88°F1019.1 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 27 mi46 min NE 7 84°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.7)
WBYA1 28 mi28 min 84°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 28 mi61 min 84°F 1019 hPa75°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 34 mi76 min 82°F 1018.6 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 37 mi46 min ENE 7 84°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.7)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 40 mi46 min ENE 9.9 G 11 83°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.9)76°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 41 mi61 min E 7 85°F 1020 hPa78°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 41 mi28 min 84°F 1018.8 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 42 mi46 min ENE 8.9 85°F 1019.3 hPa (+1.4)
PPTA1 42 mi46 min 83°F 1019 hPa (+0.3)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 46 mi34 min 89°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 47 mi34 min 85°F 87°F1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL15 mi1.9 hrsNNE 510.00 miA Few Clouds85°F79°F82%1019.2 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL20 mi1.8 hrsENE 410.00 miA Few Clouds84°F77°F80%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE4S5SE74
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SE7E10E8SE5S3CalmCalmS3CalmSE7SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5NE5
1 day agoNE5NE5NE5NE5NE4S5S5S8S4S4--CalmSW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW4NW4CalmCalmNE4
2 days agoSE5SE8SE7S9
G15
SW7S4S5SE4N5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4N3NW5NW5NW3N34

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.