Thursday, June22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Palms, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday June 22, 2017 2:34 PM EDT (18:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:49AMMoonset 5:48PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Palms, SC
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location: 30.97, -77.7     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 221746
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
146 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Atlantic high pressure will build over the region through
Saturday before a cold front shifts into the area Saturday
night and Sunday. High pressure will prevail during the middle
and later part of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 105 pm: an isolate tsra, with cell mergers, has developed
over coastal liberty and bryan counties. Weak to moderate
showers have developed across the inland sc counties, iso weak
showers of charleston county. SPC mesoscale analysis of normalized
cape indicates the portions of SE ga and the sc lowcountry with
values of 0.1 m s2. The convection mode may gradually favor
thunderstorms by the heat of the afternoon. I will update the
forecast to primarily adjust pops, sky, and hour
temps dewpoints through this afternoon.

As of 955 am: latest satellite images indicate that earlier
breaks in the cloud cover has started to fill back in,
especially across the sc lowcountry. Within the breaks, a few
shallow CU have developed across the tri-county. Latest spc
mesoscale analysis indicate CAPE values between 2000-3000 j kg
across the forecast, CIN was around zero. I will forecast
primarily isolated showers through the rest of the morning, then
sct showers and thunderstorms developing along and west of the
seabreeze this afternoon. It will be hot, heat index values may
exceed 100 degrees within the altamaha river valley.

Previous discussion:
no major changes were made with the sunrise update.

Subtropical high pressure will begin to reassert itself across
the southeast u.S. Today with the mid-level weakness and
primary tropical moisture feed between the ridge and the upper
level cyclone over eastern texas retrograding westward.

Forecast soundings show drier low mid-level air will be in place
today and although pwats are forecast to remain above 2 inches,
this pocket of lower theta air will likely curtail the coverage
of showers tstms somewhat, especially at the coast where the
dry pocket will be the deepest. Still expect scattered
showers tstms to impact much of southeast south carolina and
southeast georgia today with activity initially impacting the
coastal counties mid-late morning, then developing inland
through the afternoon as the sea breeze propagates inland. Pops
of 30-50% look reasonable today with the highest pops generally
confined to areas west of the i-95 corridor.

It will be a warm and humid day with highs warming into the
upper 80s away from the beaches with a few lower 90s possible
across interior southeast georgia, mainly along south of the
i-16 corridor. Dewpoints should hold in the lower-mid 70s which
will yield heat indices of 100-103 across southeast georgia
with upper 90s to near 100 across southeast south carolina.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday
Tonight: convection will be mainly diurnal in nature so
coverage should quickly wane during the evening hours as the
boundary layer stabilizes and the sea breeze clears far
interior southeast georgia. Held onto 20-40% pops across the
interior through about 9-10 pm with dry conditions overnight.

It will be a warm, humid night with lows only dropping into the
mid 70s inland with upper 70s near 80 at the beaches.

Friday: there will be a fairly noticeable change in the overall
pattern as atlantic high pressure nudges westward and extends across
the southeast united states. The setup will favor a more typical
summer-time pattern with only a slight chance of afternoon showers
and or thunderstorms. Greatest precip chances should occur along a
seabreeze circulation moving inland. Temps will be a few degrees
warmer with more sunshine than the previous few days. In general,
afternoon highs will peak in the lower 90s away from the immediate
coast. Overnight lows will range in the mid 70s away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday: a fair amount of instability will develop over
the region in advance of a cold front approaching the area Saturday
evening night. Scape between 2000-2500 j kg, mid-lvl lapse rates
near 7.0 c km and lifted index values around -6 c support a few
stronger thunderstorms upstream near the vicinity of a cold front.

However, these storms will likely arrive over inland areas late,
suggesting a weaker state of activity given the loss of diurnal
heating and unfavorable timing of FROPA at night. At this time,
chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast, mainly for areas
inland Saturday. Expect precip coverage to gradually increase over
the area Saturday night into Sunday morning as pwats increase to
around 2.0 inches during the time of fropa. High chances of showers
and thunderstorms will likely linger into much of Sunday afternoon
and evening as the front slowly shifts offshore. Overall highs are
expected to peak in the lower 90s on Saturday, then upper 80s north
to around 90 south on Sunday. Overnight lows will remain mild
Saturday night, ranging in the mid upper 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Atlantic high pressure will extend over much of the southeast
this weekend before a cold front associated with the remnants of
tropical storm cindy approaches the area early Sunday into
Monday. At this time, chances of showers and thunderstorms are
forecast over the entire area, but greater coverage of precip is
possible as pwats in excess of 2.0 inches occur during the
timing of fropa. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could
linger into early next week as the front slowly shifts offshore.

However, dry and slightly cooler conditions are anticipated
during the middle and later half of the week as high pressure
builds over the region. In general, high temps should peak in
the mid 80s under some clouds Monday and Tuesday, then warm a
degree or two Wednesday and Thursday under more sunshine.

Overnight lows will range in the low mid 70s Sunday night, then
upper 60s lower 70s through the middle of next week.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Radar and satellite trends indicate that tsras will develop over
or near ksav through 23z. Convection should have the greatest
chance of impacting ksav between 19z-21z, I will highlight with
a tempo. Deep convection appears to have a greater chance inland
from kchs, I will indicate a vcts until 1z. Forecast soundings
and MOS time the development of MVFR ceilings to develop over
the terminals late tonight into early Friday morning. Mixing
following sunrise should bring a return toVFR conditions
between 14z-16z.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions should prevail Friday and
much of Saturday. Flight restrictions will be possible as showers
and thunderstorms occur along a passing cold front late Saturday
into Monday.

Today: southerly winds will prevail today as atlantic high
pressure holds firm well offshore. Winds will generally remain
10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft nearshore waters and 3-4 ft offshore

Tonight: there will be very little change tonight with south
winds remaining in tact. Speeds will remain 10-15 kt with seas
2-4 ft, highest over the georgia offshore waters.

Friday through Tuesday: atlantic high pressure will build over the
region this weekend before a cold front approaches the waters late
Saturday into Sunday. As this occurs, the pressure gradient will
gradually increase and could support marginal small craft advisory
level conditions over nearshore south carolina waters Friday night
and perhaps Saturday night. In general, southerly winds will
increase to 15-20 kts over much of the waters with gusts up to 25
kts off the south carolina coast. Seas will also build up to 3-4 ft
within 10 nm of the coast and up to around 5 ft beyond 10 nm from
the coast. Conditions will gradually improve Sunday through Tuesday
as the weakening front shifts offshore and is replaced by high
pressure building from the northwest.

Tides coastal flooding
A coastal flood advisory may be needed for parts of the lower
south carolina coast for the evening high tide cycle.

Tides will be running high given the upcoming new moon and
onshore winds could help push levels high enough to produce
shallow coastal flooding around the times of the evening high
tide through late week, especially along the south carolina

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term...

long term...

aviation... Ned

tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC171 mi40 minS 79.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F78°F79%1019 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE6CalmE8E6NE5CalmNE4CalmCalmS4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5S6S5S8S8S7SW7S7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5
2 days agoS15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.