Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Palms, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC) Moonrise 7:16AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Palms, SC
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location: 30.97, -77.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 291819
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
219 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
A weak front will sag south over the area today, then move north as
a warm front Thursday night. A cold front will move through Friday
night followed by dry high pressure into Sunday. Unsettled weather
should return again next Monday, possibly lasting into Tuesday.

Near term /through tonight/
Mainly dry and warm weather today as the upper ridge builds
across the area and weak surface high pressure builds south. The
weak surface front is drifting into southeast ga this morning.

Isolated showers will be possible along the altamaha river where
deeper moisture will exist and modest surface-based instability
develops. Highs expected to reach the low to mid 80s.

Tonight: a bit of tricky forecast with a light onshore and
upslope flow. This synoptic pattern along with elevated surface
dew points favor some stratus development overnight and this
was supported by several 00z model solutions. With low level
winds picking up a bit late, it looks a bit doubtful we will see
significant fog from build-down stratus, but there was enough
evidence to introduce some patchy fog around the savannah river
entrance south into coastal ga. Lows will be in the upper 50s
north to lower 60s south.

Short term /Thursday through Saturday/
A stalled front across southeast ga Thursday will shift north as a
warm front Thursday night followed by a cold front Friday night.

Rain chances will ramp up toward Thursday afternoon when deeper
moisture and isentropic ascent increase across the area. Thus,
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms (mainly across ga) are
expected Thursday afternoon/evening with a lull likely, especially
across ga, before increasing again toward daybreak Friday as
stronger synoptic forcing arrives. Precipitation should taper off
later Friday as the deepest moisture shifts northeast of the area.

Although wind fields will be strong Friday, instability appears
minimal and thus the threat for severe weather is low at this time.

Either way it should be a breezy day with gusts up to around 25-30
mph. Any lingering showers near the sc coast should end Friday
evening as a cold front moves through with dry conditions the rest
of the night into Saturday.

On Thursday temperatures will be a bit cooler than Wednesday behind
the front, especially across sc where it should stay below 80
degrees except close to the savannah river. Temperatures Friday will
be moderated by the clouds/rain, likely only reaching close to 80
inland with a slight warmup Saturday as slight cool advection likely
gets overcome by some downslope warming.

Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/
Dry high pressure to prevail through Sunday night although moisture
will be increasing toward Monday morning as low-level jetting ramps
up ahead of approaching low pressure from the west. Unsettled
weather is expected Monday into Tuesday although timing is a bit
uncertain at this point. Mid-level ridging should keep things dry
and quite warm Wednesday, possibly near record levels in ga.

Otherwise, temperatures should remain above normal through the
period.

Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/
Vfr through this evening. Increasing low-level moisture into
southeast ga after midnight as the surface high to the north
shifts off the coast. Low stratus is a pretty good bet so we
added MVFR ceilings at ksav after 08z. Although some stratus
build-down is possible, the better chances for low surface
visibilities will be farther inland where low-level winds
diminish, so we are only showing 5sm for a few hours straddling
daybreak Thursday.

Extended aviation outlook: restrictions likely due to
showers/thunderstorms/low clouds, mainly Thu night into fri. Breezy
conditions expected fri.

Marine
Today: a weak cold front will drift into the waters today and
lose definition late as it mingles with the sea breeze
oscillations. Winds will gradually veer onshore and increase
close to 15 kt across charleston waters by early this evening
into tonight. Ga waters will see light offshore winds early this
morning becoming onshore later today and tonight, speeds will
be closer to 10 kt. Seas will average 2-3 ft near shore with 3-4
ft offshore and some 5 footers out closer to the gulf stream.

Thursday through Monday: a warm front will shift north through the
area Thursday night/Friday. A cold front will then move through
Friday night/early Saturday. At some point prior to the cold frontal
passage sea fog could develop across the cooler near shore waters
and lead to low visibilities. Conditions will go downhill again
Monday as a storm system approaches from the west.

Expect a high chance for advisories Thursday night across the outer
waters, expanding northward into the sc waters into Friday night as
strengthening winds build seas to 6-7 feet, highest toward the gulf
stream.

Rip currents: moderate risk for rip currents along the sc coast
today. Winds becoming onshore and increasing late along with
long period 2-3 foot swells may produce rip currents. The
combination of higher than normal tides, onshore winds and
swells in the surf zone will support an enhanced risk for rip
currents, possibly lasting into Friday.

Tides/coastal flooding
Strengthening onshore winds combined with swells impacting the coast
will cause saltwater inundation, especially in vulnerable coastal
areas. The high tides this evening and again on Thursday morning
could reach advisory levels, especially in sc. The Thursday
evening high tide could approach warning levels. Coastal flood
headlines are expected with each of these tide cycles.

Chs watches/warnings/advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Jrl
short term... Rjb
long term... Rjb
aviation... Jrl
marine... Rjb
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC171 mi78 minESE 1110.00 miFair77°F60°F57%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15SW12S11S12
G18
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S7S3SW8SW6SW5SW6SW5W4CalmCalmNW4N4N6NE7N53NE7E9E10
1 day agoS13S12S12S10S7S6S4S3CalmS5S6S5S7SW5S5S8SW6S5SW9SW9S11S9S11S13
2 days agoS10SE10
G15
S10S7SE3SE5SE4SE6SE6SE4SE4S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S6S10S10S11SE10
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.