Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Palms, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:17PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 9:18 AM EDT (13:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 8:20AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Palms, SC
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location: 30.97, -77.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 221004
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
604 am edt Wed may 22 2019

Prolonged, early season heat wave to impact the region over
the memorial day weekend into next week...

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region this week and will
linger into the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No changes were made for the sunrise update.

A subtle backdoor cold front was situated over the pee dee into
the northern midlands early this morning as a warm and humid
airmass resides across southeast south carolina and southeast
georgia. The front is expected to washout near the santee river
later this morning as high pressure over the mid-atlantic states
bridges with the high centered offshore of south carolina. An
isolated shower or two could pop across parts of berkeley and
upper charleston counties later this morning with the risk of an
isolated shower pushing inland across interior southeast south
carolina and possibly far interior southeast georgia later in
the day as a pure sea breeze circulation propagates inland.

Soundings show a capping inversion gradually building through
the day as mid-level heights rise in response to a strong mid
upper-level subtropical anticyclone strengthening across the
carolinas and georgia. This should negate updrafts from becoming
too strong, thus any convection that fires should be mainly
spotty with a couple of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes
possible. Pops will be held mentionable thresholds for all
areas this afternoon, except across the far interior where a
slight chance pop will be highlighted for about 2-4 hours.

There will be a large range in temperatures this afternoon as a
deepening onshore flow should keep the coastal areas limited to
the mid-upper 80s with upper 70s lower 80s at the beaches and as
warm as the mid-upper 90s across far interior southeast
georgia, including portions of allendale and hampton counties
in southeast south carolina. Dewpoints should mix out in the
lower 60s where temperatures are the warmest with upper
60s lower 70s at the coast. The resulting heat indices will peak
in the mid-upper 90s most areas.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
Tonight: it will remain quiet and dry as deep-layered high
pressure holds firm. Onshore flow will keep a risk for marine-
based stratocumulus moving inland through the night. Lows will
range from the lower 70s inland to the mid-upper 70s at the
beaches and downtown charleston with a few upper 60s possible
across northern parts of colleton, dorchester and berkeley
counties away from the santee-cooper lakes.

Thursday through Saturday: all models are in very good
agreement that a strong upper level ridge will be maintained
across the southeast u.S. During this period. A warming trend
will occur during this time period as southeasterly low level
winds on Thursday will become westerly to northwesterly on
Friday. Large scale sinking motion in the atmosphere combined
with the developing downslope low level flow will help 850 mb
temperatures from 16 to 18 degrees celsius on Thursday climb to
20 to 22 degrees celsius by Saturday. Note, although an outlier,
the 00z ECMWF has 850 mb temperatures approaching 24 degrees
celsius by late Saturday across interior southeast georgia.

Cannot rule out a stray sea breeze shower on Thursday, but
believe chances are low enough that it does not need to be
mentioned in the forecast.

Limited cloud cover especially on Friday and Saturday should
allow temperatures to reach their full potential. Low level
thickness tools support highs by Saturday 100 to 105 everywhere
except at the beaches. Not quite ready to go that warm yet, but
it at least gives the idea of what the potential is. So for now,
forecasting highs mainly from the upper 80s north to the mid
90s southwest on Thursday warming to the upper 90s to near 100
away from the coast by Saturday. Went well above numerical
guidance values mainly because nearly all of the energy from the
sun will going into warming since everything is so dry.

Afternoon heat indices could approach advisory criteria on
Friday and Saturday in portions of the area. Low temperatures
will warm from mainly the mid to upper 60s away from the coast
Thursday night to near 70 away from the coast Friday night. This
appears to be the beginning of a very significant and dangerous
early summer heat wave where numerous high temperatures and
high minimum temperatures records could be met or broken.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
High confidence in the first several days of this period as the
very significant and dangerous early summer heat wave continues.

The strong upper level ridge will shift a bit southwest of the
area. This will aid in deep northwesterly downslope flow across
the area with the sea breeze likely being pinned at or near the
coast at least Sunday and Monday. With no significant change in
850 mb temperatures from the end of the short term period, high
temperatures on Sunday, Monday, and quite possibly Tuesday will
be hot, mainly near 100 away from the coast. Heat indices could
reach advisory levels Sunday through Tuesday in portions of the
area. By Wednesday forecast becomes more uncertain with the gfs
indicating a slight break in the heat wave while the ecmwf
indicates the heat wave is maintained or even gets worse.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR.

Marine
Through tonight: an east to southeast flow regime will dominate
the local marine area through tonight as high pressure remains
just north of the region. Winds will surge a bit near the coast
and in charleston harbor with the development of a pure sea
breeze circulation. Winds should peak 15 kt with gusts 20 kt in
this area with 10-15 kt elsewhere. Another uptick in winds are
expected overnight as a weak confluence zone develops across the
georgia waters. Winds should be 10-15 kt through the night with
occasional surges near 15 kt over for the georgia waters. Seas
1-2 ft this morning will build a foot or two through the day and
linger through the night.

Thursday through Monday: tranquil conditions are expected across
the marine area into Sunday morning with winds generally at or
below 10 knots, except briefly higher closer to the coast each
after in association with the sea breeze. Seas will be no more
that 2 to 3 feet. Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon winds
will be a bit stronger, but no more than 15 knots with seas
mainly 2 to 3 feet.

Climate
A developing very significant and dangerous heat wave will
put many of these records in jeopardy.

Record for 05 22...

station record high min year
------- --------------- ----
kcxm 76 1998
record for 05 23...

station record high min year
------- --------------- ----
kcxm 77 1998
records for 05-24...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1953
ksav 98 2011, 1953
records for 05-25...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 2000, 1953
kcxm 95 1962, 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1953
kcxm 79 1998
ksav 76 1878
records for 05-26...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1998
kcxm 79 1998
records for 05-27...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1989
kcxm 95 1962, 1926
ksav 98 1989, 1962
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 1991
kcxm 78 1991
ksav 77 1878
records for 05-28...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1967, 1964
kcxm 93 2000
ksav 96 1964, 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2000
kcxm 80 2000
ksav 76 1885
records for 05-29...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 1945
ksav 98 1945, 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 74 1991
kcxm 77 1998
ksav 75 1885

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC171 mi24 minVar 49.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1020 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9SW6W7S7S10S11S10S11S9S8S9S3S4S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS8
1 day agoS8S11S9S9
G15
S11S11S11S14S10S9S11S6S7S7S7S7S7S5SW5SW6S4CalmCalmSW5
2 days agoS8S9S11S12S12SE9
G15
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S6SE7S76S6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmSW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.