Sunrise 7:01 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 8:16 PM   Moonset 6:16 AM

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FXUS64 KSJT 242343 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 643 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper level short wave ridging is in place across the area as an upper level low moves toward the southern California coast. As faster flow moves in aloft maintaining lee troughing, southerly flow continues to keep the air mass in west central Texas moist and unstable. Deep layer shear is expected to be in the 35 to 45 knot range late this afternoon and evening. Short range CAMs continue to depict isolated thunderstorms developing west/northwest of our forecast area this evening between 6 PM and 8 PM. However, with the upper level ridge in place, indicating warmer temperatures aloft, there is some question as to whether or not convection will be able to break the cap. In addition, not all CAMs sustain the convection into our counties. At any rate, should convection get going, it would likely quickly become strong to severe. So, will keep a 20 to 30 percent chance of storms going generally along and north of a Sterling City to Baird line going for the evening hours, with a mention of severe weather possible for western Big Country areas.

Once convection dies later tonight, we can expect increasing clouds, and another warm, humid night, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. For Thursday, expect continued gusty southerly winds, temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and skies becoming partly cloudy after a mostly cloudy start.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Thursday Night

Negatively tilted upper shortwave trough will lift from Colorado/ northern New Mexico Friday evening into the central/southern High Plains by daybreak Saturday. The dryline will extend across West Texas Friday evening, before a Pacific front overtakes the dryline and moves east into our area overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline, and could move into the western Big Country and perhaps northwestern Concho Valley during the night. With the approach of the Pacific front and the aid of lift from the aforementioned shortwave trough, thunderstorms should increase in coverage (probably form into a line of storms) and push east across much of the northern half of our area late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Given the favorable/strong vertical shear profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. With a low-level jet in place and strengthened low-level shear along with increased storm-relative helicity, will have a risk of a couple of tornadoes.

The Pacific front is expected to move east of our area on Friday, but a slower movement could keep a lingering chance of showers and storms into the morning for our far eastern and southeastern counties. Skies will clear from the west Friday, and it will be warm but less humid with the infiltration of drier air. Highs will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

Low-level moisture will make a quick return across our area Friday night, out ahead of another upper trough which will drop southeast into the Four Corners area. Our area will be back into a moist and moderate to strongly unstable airmass Saturday. The area generally east of a line from Aspermont to Eden to Menard will have a risk of severe storms Saturday and Saturday night, with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards and an isolated tornado risk.
Carrying low to medium PoP (20-50 percent) for the possibility of thunderstorms in mainly our northern and eastern counties Saturday.
Have some uncertainty about the timing/placement of storm development during the day Saturday. The aforementioned Four Corners area trough will move across northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado late Saturday afternoon, and lift across the central/southern High Plains Saturday night. The setup favors additional thunderstorm development Saturday night across our area, as a weak Pacific front moves east into the area.

The overall weather for Sunday looks similar to Friday, with the weak Pacific front moving east of our area and a possible lingering chance of showers and storms in our eastern counties in the morning.
Warm and drier conditions in the afternoon with clearing skies, and highs in the 80s. For early next week, a weak cold front may move south briefly into the Big Country Monday afternoon, but otherwise temperatures look warm with daily highs in the mid 80s to around 90 Monday through Wednesday. A upper shortwave trough may approach and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday, but the details look uncertain at this point.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Abundant mid and high clouds continue across West Central Texas terminals late this afternoon. Gusty south to southeast winds continue to bring low level moisture into the area, and fully expect another round of MVFR cigs to develop and mover over all of the terminals late tonight and continue into much of the day on Thursday. May even see some brief IFR across the southern locations. These will be slow to burn off and may take well into the afternoon before VFR conditiions return. Otherwise, may see a brief lull in the winds this evening, but gusty winds will return overnight as the low level jet increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 68 84 64 86 / 20 10 80 10 San Angelo 68 85 65 88 / 0 0 60 0 Junction 68 88 68 91 / 0 0 30 10 Brownwood 66 82 65 86 / 0 10 60 30 Sweetwater 68 83 63 85 / 20 10 70 0 Ozona 67 82 65 88 / 0 0 50 0 Brady 68 83 68 87 / 0 10 50 30

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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