Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Country Club Estates, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:21PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:32 PM EDT (21:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 3:55PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 246 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
.small craft exercise caution...
Tonight..South southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers in the evening with a chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers likely through the night. Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters rough. Showers with Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Friday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 246 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure will move from east of the region today to the southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will cross area waters Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will build from the west Thursday night into Friday. This ridge will be east of area waters over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Country Club Estates, GA
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location: 31.23, -81.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 221848
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
248 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Near term /through Tuesday/...

the region will be between high pressure to the east and a frontal
boundary to the northwest today into Tuesday. Most of todays
convection will initiate on the west and east coast sea breeze
boundaries, with a convergence of these boundaries likely occuring
between interstates i95 and i75 around 20z. With the flow generally
from the southwest, expect this area of convection then to move
toward i95 corridor later this afternoon, before moving off the
eastern shore this evening. Could see showers and a few storms
linger through the night northwest closer to the frontal boundary.

The overall pattern will remain nearly the same into Tuesday.

However, a 500h short wave trough will move southeast into the
region in the afternoon. This energy, coupled with surface
instability and sea breeze interactions will result in scattered to
numerous showers and storms once again. The best chance for
convection Tuesday afternoon will be over SE ga closer to the upper
energy.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/
Tuesday night... There may some linger convection along the first coast
and coastal SE georgia during the early evening with some
stratiform precip in the wake of the west coast sea breeze
convection mainly north of i-10 and interior SE ga through mid
evening. The convection will move well offshore during the late
evening as well as the stratiform rainfall. A couple hours after
midnight... Increasing large scale ascent ahead of a large scale
trough... Supplemented by diffluent flow aloft is quite favorable
to support widespread rainfall over the eastern gulf of mexico and
florida's nature and Sun coasts. This convection looks like it
will push into the suwannee valley during the predawn hours and
into interior SE ga and into NE florida. There may be some
initial heavy rain showers with embedded convection during the
morning commute early Wednesday morning which could be round #1.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... On wed, upper level trof over the
mid south will extend into the gulf of mexico driving a frontal
boundary into the western florida panhandle and western georgia
early in the day. Deep layer southwesterly wind and speed shear
will occur with surface winds strengthening at 15-25 mph with some
higher gusts while higher pre-frontal moisture overspreads the
area with precipitable water values 1.8" to 2.0". The deepness of
the trough suggests that a band of convection ahead of the front
could produce strong storms Wed afternoon into early thu. The
sounding profile suggests a nearly saturated atmosphere.

Significant rainfall is possible, with day 3 wpc rainfall totals
of generally 2-3 inches, with substantially but locally higher
amounts are very feasible perhaps requiring a flood watch
Wednesday. Due to ample cloud cover and rainfall, instability does
decrease, but shear does increase with sfc to 3km shear values at
35 knots. The wind profile will be unidirectional with ample
capes of 1300-1600 j/kg. With this said, a couple rounds of strong
to severe weather will be likely across the region throughout the
day and into the evening hours ahead of the cold front, and along
the front itself. The main threat from the stronger to marginally
severe storms can be wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph, 1" hail with 5h
temps at -10. SPC has southeast georgia in a marginal risk and
northeast florida in a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday.

The convective activity will likely linger through most of the
evening edging slowly eastward as the evening progresses with
shear values still pretty heightened east of highway 301 with 40
knots of shear mid evening east of i-95 in NE fl. The NAM does
show backing at the surface across northeast florida with a
hodograph indicating some good directional shear in the lowest 1
km early to mid evening as frontal feature moves into big bend
region. Hence, a isold tornado can not be ruled out. Highs
Wednesday will generally range from upper 70s to lower 80s. Some
clearing expected over inland southeast georgia and the western
suwannee valley by the predawn hours on Thursday as cold front
situates across our southern tier counties in north central fl.

Lows will fall to the lower 60s interior SE ga, and lows elsewhere
will remain in the mid to upper 60s.

Long term /Thursday through memorial day/
The upper trough axis shifts through the region by Thursday
afternoon, with a surface cold front well ahead pushing east-
southeast through the north central southern tier zones by early
morning. The heavy rainfall threat will also end Thursday morning
behind the front. Drier air will filter into the region through
the day as the cold front pushes southward, with much more
pleasant dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s areawide by afternoon.

Friday morning lows will be cooler in the mid/upper 50s inland and
the low to mid 60s along the coast, around 5 degrees below
normal. Highs are forecast to also be cooler in the mid 80s. Upper
ridging will build northwest from the southwest gulf late in the
week and into the weekend. Weak surface high pressure will then
build across central florida through the end of the week and into
the weekend, with dry conditions continuing. Moisture may begin to
return Sunday and Monday, with 20-30% rain chances, highest
across southeast georgia. However, models are not in agreement on
timing of moisture return this far out. Slightly below normal on
Thursday will quickly rebound to above normal in the upper 80s to
low 90s by the memorial day weekend, with lows in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Aviation
Convection is expected to affect area TAF sites this afternoon
into this evening. The convection will dissipate by around
midnight, then redevelop Tuesday morning. Restrictions in addition
to gusty winds can be expected in and near any storms.

Marine High pressure will move from east of the region today to
the southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will cross area
waters Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will build
from the west Thursday night into Friday. This ridge will be east
of area waters over the weekend.

Rip currents: low risk expected on Tuesday as offshore flow
develops.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Amg 71 80 69 79 / 70 70 70 80
ssi 73 83 73 81 / 70 60 60 80
jax 70 86 72 83 / 60 60 60 80
sgj 72 87 73 83 / 70 50 40 80
gnv 69 86 72 82 / 30 50 60 80
ocf 71 86 73 81 / 20 40 50 80

Jax watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Cordero/struble/mcginnis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 14 mi92 min SW 13 78°F 1016 hPa (-1.0)74°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 31 mi42 min S 12 G 14 77°F 78°F2 ft1014.1 hPa (-2.3)73°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 36 mi32 min 79°F3 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 39 mi44 min S 4.1 G 8 80°F 81°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA4 mi37 minSSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F73°F100%1014.2 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA6 mi39 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F90%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5SE5S3S5S4CalmSW3S6S3SW3SW3CalmCalmSW3SW3S6SW4SE4E7E7SE7SE6SE5
1 day agoSE8SE7SE8SE9
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2 days agoSE8
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SE6E8SE5SE6SE6SE4SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmE4SE3SE7SE7SE9SE9SE8S11SE9SE11SE11
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Frederica River, Georgia
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Frederica River
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Mon -- 12:30 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     7.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     8.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.51.63.35.26.67.47.26.34.93.11.40.1-0.40.42.34.66.78.18.47.76.44.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     7.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:10 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     8.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.412.23.85.46.67.37.36.34.62.50.7-0.3-01.2356.888.47.86.34.22

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.