Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Hattiesburg, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:14PM Sunday March 26, 2017 3:39 PM CDT (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:03AMMoonset 5:56PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound-lake Borgne- 1006 Am Cdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1006 Am Cdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis..High pressure centered across the eastern gulf will overspread the area today and remain in control of the coastal waters through Wednesday. By Thursday, another area of low pressure will affect the coastal waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Hattiesburg, MS
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location: 31.29, -89.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 261709 aab
afdjan
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service jackson ms
1209 pm cdt Sun mar 26 2017

Update
Updated for 18z aviation discussion

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
vfr conditions this afternoon and evening will give way to increasing
fog and low clouds with MVFR conditions by 27/06z. These
conditions along with periodic drops to ifr can be expected
overnight with conditions improving slightly after 27/13z./26/

Discussion
Low level moisture still hanging on over the area as shown in the
visible imagery and surface dewpoints. Clear skies with 50s
dewpoints were able to sneak into far northwest sections
overnight. Clouds will hang around through the day, but enough
breaks will exist to boost temps into the 80s./26/
prior discussion below:
today through Monday night:
a weak low level trough and moisture axis lingering in the wake
of the disturbance that passed through yesterday will likely
trigger a few isolated showers over eastern zones as we go through
the day today. Even a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
generally down the i-59 axis from mei to hbg, but no severe
weather is anticipated. Clouds associated with this trough
currently running from central to northeast zones will keep those
spots largely free of much fog concerns this morning. However, on
the periphery of these clouds is where there will be the potential
for patchy, possibly dense, fog through 9 am. The mention of this
will be included in the hwo and graphics. After this morning
anticipate clouds to gradually disperse through the morning hours
although tending to hang on a little more stubbornly in portions
of eastern ms, coincident with the lingering slight shower/storm
chances. Temperatures will be much warmer than yesterday with
south to southwesterly flow in the low levels boosting highs at
least into the lower 80s in most locales.

Tonight our attention will begin focusing back out to the west as
another potent piece of shortwave energy starts heading our way
from out of the southern plains. This disturbance and associated
frontal system out that direction should kick up a good deal of
vigorous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with the
potential the very southeast edge of overnight organized storm
clusters could impinge on far northwestern zones toward daybreak
Monday. Any potential for worrisome storms, even in the far
northwest, should likely hold off until after daybreak. Otherwise,
expect mild lows with low clouds again building north late in the
night.

The aforementioned storm system approaching from the west tonight
will be impacting our region on Monday. The bulk of large scale
forcing and best wind shear will be focused to the north of our
region but the combination of various surface troughs and outflow
boundaries coming in from the west/northwest should be enough to
trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the midday through
evening hours, especially along and north of i-20. The environment
these storms will be forming in should feature moderate to high
instability (thanks to cold temperatures aloft) and wind shear
capable of organizing storms (although not certainly not high wind
shear). The primary risk with any severe storms (especially with
any supercells) will be large hail and damaging winds. Low level
shear levels will be marginal for tornadoes but given the
impressive expected instability (mlcape values of 1500+ j/kg) it
is still hard to rule out a tornado. Our hwo/graphics will cover
risks and will probably be beefed up some later today in
collaboration with the storm prediction center. Temperatures
preceding storms should be in the mild low to mid 80s in most
locations. Anticipate the bulk of storms to be moving out by the
late evening through overnight hours. /bb/
Tuesday through next Sunday morning:
in the wake of the cold front and severe weather that is expected
to move through on Monday, anticipate a less active pattern at
the start of the forecast period. At the surface a cold front will
draped across the appalachians through central portions of the
arklamiss and this will only gradually slide to the south through
the day. A lingering shear axis will be present over the area but
gradually pulling off to the east as the upper ridge continues to
build in and the low pressure moves off east of the mid-atlantic
states. Expect some chances of some showers/storms there on
Tuesday, with the best chances increasing midday. Wouldn't rule
out a stronger storm but with increasing heights and little
forcing, not expecting much with these. With the ridge building
over the area into Wednesday, expect a warm period as boundary
layer temperatures increase to near 16-17 deg c at 925mb. This
will support low to mid 80s areawide, some 10+ degrees above
normal.

An active period of severe weather potential will again be
possible as we continue through the work week. By Wednesday, a
strong pacific jet (~100kts at 300mb) and closed upper low will be
diving down into the desert southwest. This will promote strong
cyclogenesis over the central to southern plains, helping a
~1000mb strong low to develop and associated cold front moving
into the southern plains into texas by midday Wednesday. Expect
another warm afternoon Wednesday with increasing moisture through
the day. Some showers/storms can't be ruled as more moisture
transport picks up but shouldn't be too much during the day.

This strong cold front will move into the area by late Wednesday
night through Thursday. SPC put our western areas Wednesday night
and entire area on Thursday with a slight risk. This system has
strong mid-deep layer shear, more than these past two systems (40-
50kts 0-6km & 30-40kts 0-3km bulk shear) with steep 700-500mb lapse
rates around 6-7 deg c. Strong height falls and strong
shear/clockwise curving hodographs with a strongly unstable
environment is supportive of severe weather potential. There are
some uncertainties, however, as the operational GFS and its ensemble
mean show the trough and associated surface low digging further
south towards the lower mississippi valley whereas the euro/canadian
and their ensemble means and the CFS weeklies show more of a track
into the central-southern plains through middle missouri area.

Stayed towards the thinking of the euro/canadian, their ensembles
and cfs. With a compact strong surface low and surface pressures
less than 1010mb, expect winds to be gusty out of the south. Right
now it looks like as a qlcs may move in our western delta zones
Wednesday night, while more widespread convection is possible to
break out areawide Thursday afternoon. This environment on Thursday
could support supercells. All modes of severe weather may be
possible. If the storms overnight do not move in and wash out the
environment, which would be similar issue to this past weekend, then
Thursday afternoon should be primed for severe weather potential.

Stay tuned as these details will be ironed out. With efficient
moisture advection and pws approaching 1.75 inches, some locally
heavy rain could not be ruled out. Introduced a slight for the
entire area in the hwo/graphics.

Expect this cold front to move through by Thursday afternoon,
leading to somewhat drier conditions with pws falling to around a
little less than an inch. This will be a short drier period as
slightly warmer boundary layer temperatures filter back in before
more storms are possible through the weekend. Another strong frontal
system and deep trough will dig down into the southern plains. This
system has quite a bit of uncertainties, with the gfs/canadian
digging the trough/cutoff low down much further south, whereas the
euro is not cutoff and more progressive. Regardless, increasing
moisture and storm chances will be possible as we go into late next
weekend. These details will be ironed out as we get closer and more
run-to-run consistency. /dc/

Preliminary point temps/pops
Jackson 82 63 83 64 / 1 7 50 46
meridian 81 62 82 63 / 5 9 47 42
vicksburg 84 64 82 63 / 1 8 51 45
hattiesburg 83 63 83 64 / 7 10 33 20
natchez 84 66 83 66 / 1 8 39 30
greenville 79 63 79 59 / 1 16 62 37
greenwood 79 62 80 59 / 1 11 63 49

Jan watches/warnings/advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 65 mi50 min S 5.8 G 12 79°F 1017 hPa (-1.3)65°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 67 mi52 min SSE 9.9 G 12 73°F 72°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N1
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G11
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SE13
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G29
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SE14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS14 mi47 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F60°F49%1015.8 hPa
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS16 mi45 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F60°F51%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from HBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE11SE7SE4S4CalmCalmE6CalmCalmSE3SE4E3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm4S7SW7SW10SW8SW6
1 day agoS13
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SE11SE9
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SE11SE7SE6S3SE6SE7SE6SE9S10
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S8SW8SE8E5SW6
2 days agoS9S7S8SE10S11SE10SE10SE9SE10SE10SE11SE9SE8SE10SE12SE11SE13
G17
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G25
SE14
G28
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G27
S19
G25
S18
G28
SE16
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Creek, Bernard Bayou, Mississippi
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Turkey Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:00 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:50 AM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:54 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.31.210.80.60.40.30.20.30.30.40.50.60.60.60.70.70.70.70.80.911.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wolf River, Henderson Avenue bridge, Mississippi
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Wolf River
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:01 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:14 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:55 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.10.90.70.50.40.30.20.20.30.40.40.50.50.60.60.60.60.70.70.80.91

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.