Saturday, April21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Ali Chuk, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:13PM Saturday April 21, 2018 8:35 AM PDT (15:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:52AMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ali Chuk, AZ
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location: 31.3, -113.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 211319
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
255 am mst Sat apr 21 2018

Synopsis Warmer temperatures this weekend with unseasonably warm
daytime temperatures during the upcoming week. Expect dry
conditions across much of the area next week. However, a few showers
may occur Sunday southeast of tucson, and a few thunderstorms may
also prevail next Friday mainly across the white mountains.

Discussion Ir water vapor satellite imagery depicted a
counterclockwise rotating gyre representing a weak area of low
pressure aloft west of northern baja california centered near
28n 123w. Satellite imagery also depicted an extensive area of
cloudiness extending from northern central baja california to well
south of 20n 120w. Meanwhile, clear skies prevail across much of
southeast arizona at this time although a few thin cirriform clouds
were noted south to southwest of tucson.

The upper low will remain essentially quasi-stationary today then
weaken and move eastward as an open wave across southeast arizona
Sunday. Expect sunny skies or mostly sunny skies this morning, then
cirriform clouds this afternoon and evening. Increasing mid-level
clouds should follow later tonight into Sunday. There remained
timing differences amongst the deterministic 21 00z gfs ECMWF as
well as the univ of az wrf-nam and wrf-gfs regarding measurable
rainfall potential. However, a consensus approach favors a period
from as early as daybreak Sunday into Sunday evening.

For this forecast issuance, have opted for a slight chance of
showers near the eastern santa cruz southwest cochise counties
borders Sunday morning. A slight chance of showers then exists
Sunday afternoon and evening mainly across the chiricahua and mule
mountains in cochise county. Any measurable rainfall amounts are
expected to be very light, or mainly just a few hundredths of an
inch. The bulk of mid high level moisture is progged to be east of
the area late Sunday night. Precip-free conditions will then prevail
at least through the middle of the upcoming week, although mostly
high-level clouds will move across the area at times.

The gfs ECMWF by next Friday depict a highly amplified upper pattern
over the eastern pacific and conus. A ridge axis extending from
arizona northward into idaho would be between a deep low near the
northern california coast, and a trough adjacent the mississippi
river valley. A couple of surface cold fronts moving southward
across the southern plains may shunt lower level moisture westward
across southern new mexico and into far southeast arizona. The
21 00z GFS was similar to previous GFS solutions and continued to
depict markedly more robust moisture accumulated precip fields and
pops versus the drier ecmwf.

Although forecast confidence regarding precip potential within this
forecast area for next Friday at this time is quite low, have opted
to maintain a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
across the white mountains. The main concern about this scenario and
as noted in the fire weather section is an enhanced potential for
fire initiation as well as gusty outflows. At this time appears that
the rest of the area would be void of showers thunderstorms. That
would certainly be the case if the ECMWF is reality, whereas the gfs
suggests that showers thunderstorms would encroach perhaps as far
west as the tucson metro area by Friday evening. A considerable
difference to be certain.

At any rate, forecast confidence is much higher regarding
temperatures during this forecast period. High temps today are
forecast to generally be about 5-10 degrees warmer versus Friday. A
few degrees of daily warming will continue Sunday into Tuesday
followed by very minor changes in daytime temps. Thus, highs Monday
through Thursday will likely average about 10 degrees or so above
normal. Some minor cooling may occur next Friday but daytime temps
remaining well above seasonal normals for late april.

Aviation Valid through 22 12z.

Expect few clouds 25k ft agl through morning then becoming sct-bkn
for the remainder of the period. Sfc winds variable less than 8 kts
through mid-morning then becoming northwesterly at 5-10 kts in
afternoon through evening. After sundown becoming light and variable
again. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend
and through next week, with readings topping out about 10 degrees
above normal by early next week. It will remain dry in most
locations, with just a slight chance of showers across portions of
southern cochise county Sunday. A few thunderstorms may also
occur next Friday mainly across the white mountains. Any lightning
would enhance fire initiation concerns and gusty outflows may also
occur. Otherwise, winds will generally be light and terrain driven
over the weekend and through next week, with the usual afternoon
gustiness due to strong daytime heating.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Discussion... Francis
aviation... Hardin
fire weather... Hardin
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ114 mi98 minENE 310.00 miFair62°F42°F48%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW8NW8NW7W10W9
1 day agoNW15
2 days agoCalmNE3S33S63W5SW10SE7S7S4SW10S8S6S4SE7CalmCalmCalmNW6W4NW9NW10NW17

Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico
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Puerto Penasco
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Sat -- 12:10 AM MST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:55 AM MST     2.93 meters High Tide
Sat -- 05:58 AM MST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:52 AM MST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:18 AM MST     0.43 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 06:36 PM MST     3.45 meters High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 PM MST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Sat -- 12:15 AM MST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:02 AM MST     0.58 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 AM MST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:56 AM MST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:38 AM MST     -1.33 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 07:11 PM MST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:26 PM MST     1.20 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.