Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Level, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday March 23, 2017 9:17 PM CDT (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:46AMMoonset 2:44PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 337 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 18 to 23 knots with higher gusts. Seas 4 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots with higher gusts. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming south. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 337 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis..An area of high pressure will build over the mid-atlantic and western atlantic while and area of low pressure develops over the plains through the end of the week. As a result, a moderate to strong onshore flow will develop along with increasing chances of showers and Thunderstorms by this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Level, AL
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location: 31.33, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 232330 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
630 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance... Will begin with prevailingVFR conditions except
for a few spots near the coast where MVFR ceilings will be
present. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop across the western
half of the area overnight, with primarilyVFR conditions
expected over the eastern portion. MVFR ceilings may improve to
nearVFR by midday over the western portion of the area as breezy
and gusty southeast winds develop. /29

Prev discussion /issued 254 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
near term /now through Friday/... Another 24 hours or so before we
get a weather pattern change. Tonight through Friday the surface
ridge will continue to ridge in across our area from the northeast,
providing a continued mainly southeast low level windflow across the
region. This moist onshore flow will result in a gradual increase
in low/mid cloud cover as the gulf marine layer works its way
further inland in conjunction with increased 850-700mb flow out of
the south provides increasing isentropic lifting over the area.

Although we will be seeing an increase in clouds, overall not a
noticeable increase in rain chances across most of the area
through Friday, although we do indicate a slight chance for
showers over our westernmost counties where deeper moisture and
slightly better forcing is expected. Nighttime temperatures are
still expected to run about 10-12 degrees above normal for this
time of the year tonight, ranging from the mid/upper 50s over
interior northeast zones to lower 60s coastal and southwest zones.

Friday's daytime temperatures are expected to be above, but
closer to normal, with highs in the mid to upper 70s over inland
areas and in the lower 70s at the coast. 12/ds
short term /Friday night through Sunday night/... Forecast
geo-potential height fields start off with an amplifying upper
level trof moving over the plains with a downstream, short-wave
mid level ridge over the southeast Friday night. The upper trof
makes a steady eastward progression out of the plains on
Saturday. East of the upper trof, high level flow becomes
increasingly diffluent favoring an increase in large scale deep
layer ascent which spreads east over the forecast area ahead of a
cold front moving into the lower river mississippi river valley
Saturday. Co-located with the larger scale ascent will be an
improvement in deep gulf moisture, where pwat values lift to
around 1.35" along the central gulf coast. Organized storms are
forecast to move eastward over the ark-la-tex Friday night and
looks to spread east across the local area on Saturday. The latest
forecast remains mostly unchanged maintaining highest chances of
showers/storms occurring on Saturday. Given assessment of
atmospheric instability, moisture, and lift, it appears we will be
dealing with the potential for some strong to a few severe storms
Saturday with the better potential for this looking to occur over
the northwest half of zones as these areas may be more influenced
by the tail end of a departing, stronger low level jet streak.

Dynamics lift northeast and threat diminishes by Saturday evening.

There are uncertainties in amount of instability between the
latest weather models, but think there will be enough to maintain
a slight risk of severe storms Saturday for much of the area. The
main threat looks to come from localized damaging winds along
with marginal severe hail potential. Locally heavy rains will be
possible with the passage of the stronger storms, but the expected
steady eastward progression would mitigate widespread flooding
concerns. Will maintain a chance of showers and few storms
Saturday night as axis of upper trof passes across. Despite lead
feature lifting well away, moving northeast over the appalachians
and ohio river on Sunday, a high level southwest flow is
maintained. Out of respect for subtle impulses embedded in these
type flows aloft, will carry a slight chance of showers/storms for
Sunday. Next upper level storm system moves eastward out of the
plains Sunday night.

Unseasonably warm days and nights continue in the short term. /10
long term /Monday through Thursday/... The passage of next upper
level storm system brings return chance of showers and storms
Monday and Monday night. Eastward building mid-level ridge over
the southern us by Tuesday night supports rain-free conditions
into Wednesday. The latest 23.12z run of the ECMWF is quicker at
bringing yet another storm system east and thus next potential
round of showers/storms into the lower mississippi river valley
during the day Thursday, with the GFS slower. Will lean to the
ecmwf solution which is also consistent with the latest national
blend of models (nbm). Unseasonably warm days and nights look to
continue thru the medium range. /10
marine... An area of high pressure will build over the mid-atlantic
and western atlantic through late week, ridging back to the southwest
over the eastern gulf of mexico. An area of low pressure developing
over the plains through the end of the week will lift to the
great lakes area over the weekend, with an associated trof moving
east across the marine area on Saturday. As a result, a moderate
to strong onshore flow and resultant building seas will develop
through late week, along with increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms by Saturday. A small craft advisory is now in effect
for portions of the marine area from this afternoon through late
Friday night. Through most of next week, the predominately
moderate (occasionally strong) onshore flow will continue as
several more weather systems pass just to the north of the marine
area. 12/ds

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Saturday for gmz631-632-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 69 mi47 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 70°F 69°F1024.9 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 79 mi47 min ESE 8.9 69°F 1024.4 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 82 mi47 min 69°F 66°F1024.3 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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NW4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andalusia, Andalusia-Opp Municipal Airport, AL17 mi21 minESE 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast69°F55°F61%1025.5 hPa
Evergreen, Middleton Field, AL18 mi24 minESE 910.00 miOvercast71°F57°F63%1025.3 hPa

Wind History from 79J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE6NE7NE5NE5NE7E7E8E6E5E9E10
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1 day agoSW4SW4SW4SW5CalmW4W3W3NW3W3NW3N8NE65N5NW93N8
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2 days agoCalmS3SW4SW3W4W6W7W6W7W5W4--W66CalmW7
G15
CalmW5W8SW8SW3SW3SW7SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Milton
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:47 AM CDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:46 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:55 PM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.90.70.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.20.40.50.70.80.91.11.21.31.31.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:40 AM CDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:46 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:54 PM CDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.60.40.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.50.60.70.80.911.11.21.21.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Fort Rucker, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.